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NIT Gambling Free Pick: Minnesota Golden Gophers at La Salle Explorers
03.14.2012 07:23 AM
Alatex Sports
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports
Minnesota
at
La Salle
-3 O/U 137.5
Recommendation: Over
A common thought process with these non-NCAA postseason tournaments is to lean OVER the total, and that is certainly what I see here. When you only have a day or two to prepare for your opponent and have limited tapes of their games, there is just no way that you are going to be ready for what they run on offense. That is a stark contrast to league games, where the coaches run the same stuff year after year and by the end of the season when a point guard calls a play, the defense knows what’s coming. Throw in the fact that it is hard for teams to play with the same intensity on the defensive end against an unknown opponent and it is easy to see why these games are usually higher scoring. In this matchup we have a team, La Salle, that tries to run all the time against a team that has shown they are willing to run against faster opponents, Minnesota. I definitely think that both teams will be
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Tags:
College Basketball
Minnesota Golden Gophers
La Salle Explorers
Brent Crow
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Sportsmemo Handicapper NCAA Tournament Picks
03.14.2012 07:17 AM
Printer Friendly
Some NCAA Tournament picks from the Sportsmemo Crew.
Sportsmemo Handicapper 2012 NCAA Tournament Picks
Handicapper
First Round Upset Alert
Final Four
Title Pick
Brent Crow
Colorado over UNLV
Kentucky, Syracuse, Missouri, North Carolina
Kentucky
Andrew Lange
Virginia over Florida
Kentucky, Marquette, Cincinnati, North Carolina
Kentucky
Teddy Covers
Belmont over Georgetown
Kentucky, Florida State, Kansas, Louisville
Kansas
Marty Otto
Virginia over Florida
Kentucky, Missouri, Kansas, Syracuse
Kentucky
Fairway Jay
Long Beach over New Mexico
Wichita, Michigan State, Ohio State, North Carolina
Ohio State
Erin Rynning
Long Beach over New Mexico
Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan, Ohio State
Ohio State
Rob Veno
Montana over Wisconsin
Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio State, North Carolina
Missouri
Tags:
College Basketball
Brent Crow
Andrew Lange
Teddy Covers
Marty Otto
Erin Rynning
Rob Veno
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NCAA Tournament Betting Free Play: Belmont Bruins vs. Georgetown Hoyas
03.14.2012 06:59 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Georgetown
vs.
Belmont
+3.5 O/U 133
Recommendation: Belmont
First, let me establish the fact that Georgetown should be on upset alert right here in Round 1. Let’s start with the Hoyas miserable recent track record. They lost in their opening round game to VCU last year in blowout fashion (74-56 as 5.5-point favorites) before the Rams had built up their boatload of momentum. John Thompson III’s squad had the exact same result in 2010; a double-digit loss as a favorite in their first tourney game, losing 97-83 as 13.5-point favorites to Ohio. In ’09, they lost their NIT opener to Baylor. In ’08, they were upset as chalk in the second round by Davidson; another loss for the Hoyas as the higher seeded favorite. This track record of failure in the Big Dance is most assuredly a pattern, something we need to consider as the fragile Hoyas get ready for their opener on Friday.
The next step is to look
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NBA Gambling News: Knicks provide least surprising headline of the year
03.14.2012 06:43 AM
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That
sounds about right.
"The players like Mike as a person," one source said. "They think he's a good guy. But he doesn't have the respect of the team anymore."
"Half the team is trying to do what coach says and the other half is doing something different," one source said. "Then it spills over to the defensive end because players are (ticked) off about somebody taking a bad shot."
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BYU was at one point a 17-1 underdog during come-from-behind win over Iona
03.14.2012 06:37 AM
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As with a lot of these NCAA Tournament games, sportsbooks offer live wagering during most timeouts. Using our Sports Options line history archives, we were able to get some of the crazy numbers offered by Pinnacle in last night's crazy
BYU-Iona game
.
It appears that from a pointspread perspective, the "peak" price on BYU was +15.5 (-106). The best moneyline price on the Cougars was +1723. As for the total (it closed 162.5), after a 55-40 halftime score, the OVER appeared to be a lock. The highest in-game total was a whopping 189.5ov-130! No matter as Iona scored 17 points after the break and the game landed 150. Welcome to the postseason bettors!
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BYU Cougars
Iona Gaels
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Political analyst breaks down NCAA Tournament
03.14.2012 06:25 AM
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Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver (he's the dude that created MLB's PECOTA ratings) always chimes in with a few March Madness related posts this time of year that are worth a read.
Click here
for this year's bracket breakdown.
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South Korea outclasses United States when it comes to sports bribery
03.14.2012 06:16 AM
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Imagine if ESPN got hold of
this one
. It makes the alleged (and probably not true) Auburn point shaving scandal look like a $15 parking ticket.
In volleyball, 16 players were involved in 18 cases of match-rigging since 2010, in which players intentionally made mistakes during matches, prosecutors said. And in professional baseball, pitchers Kim Seong-hyun and Park Hyun-jun, both of whom played for Seoul-based LG Twins, deliberately walked batters five times during the first innings of games in return for bribes, according to the allegations.
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March
13
NIT Free Betting Pick: Akron Zips at Northwestern Wildcats
03.13.2012 02:49 PM
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Submitted by
Akron
at
Northwestern
-6 O/U 142
Recommendation: Northwestern
This has mental letdown written all over it, as both teams had NCAA Tournament dreams dashed in their conference tournaments. But for traveling Akron, the situation is especially poor. Following a last second loss to Ohio in the MAC title game, the Zips had their zest taken. Despite some solid perimeter personnel and a 7-footer to patrol the paint, Akron is likely to struggle against a rested Wildcats team that can mix and match their Princeton offense and defensive looks. Northwestern can be tough to support as mid-range favorite with their smaller front line and lack of rebounding strength, but with and Northwestern’s Drew Crawford and star scorer John Shurna leading a Wildcats team that averages nine made 3-pointers per game, and emerging sophomore guard JerShon Cobb’s recent scoring surge, the Wildcats become the preferred play.
Fairway Jay is a recognized
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__
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NCAA Tournament Gambling Preview: Montana Grizzlies vs. Wisconsin Badgers
03.13.2012 01:55 PM
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NCAA Tournament East Regional
No. 4 Wisconsin -9 vs. No. 13 Montana O/U 118.5
Thursday, 11:10 am PT - Albuquerque, N.M.
Rob Veno Power Rating: Wisconsin -7
Betting Take:
Good matchup here as both teams play similar styles. Montana isn't as deliberate on offense as Wisconsin, but the Grizzlies prefer a slow place and play solid defense. They also have size with 7-0 center Derek Selvig patrolling the paint. But the Big Sky is notorious for not performing well when asked to step up in class, especially in the postseason. Montana did beat Long Beach at home but lost to San Francisco, Oregon State, Colorado State and Nevada. Wisconsin becomes an interesting handicap when laying this type of price outside of Madison. In a short-lined game, the Badgers are capable of beating most teams. But their style and propensity to sit on leads makes laying near double-digits tricky. Also tricky is putting the ball in the bucket for this team. They carved up Indiana's weak defense in the Big Ten Tournament for 79 points but turned right around with a 52-point effort against Michigan State. Montana isn’t in the Spartans' class
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NBA Handicapping: Boston Celtics continue to waiver with their offensive identity
03.13.2012 01:17 PM
ER Sports
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Submitted by ER Sports
Seems like an identity crisis for Celtics, or perhaps just their game plan. One game head coach Doc Rivers wants to push tempo with Rajon Rondo, another game, they
muck it up and slow down the pace
like what we saw in last night’s 94-85 win over the Clippers. The Celtics are undersized and that hurts against teams like the Lakers, but the Clippers are a much better matchup. I would expect another “ugly” game against Golden State on Wednesday.
"This is Lob City, and they enjoy the game," Doc Rivers said after his team won, 94-85. "You can see them when they play, it’s a lot of fun. We had to make this game no fun. This game can’t be a joyous occasion. It has to be a competition. [We] went out there and they turned it into a competition."
"But I thought it was both teams," Rivers went on. "There was no dirty play. I just thought both teams got chippy, and when that happens, honestly, I think we’re thinking that’s not a bad
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Boston Celtics
Erin Rynning
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NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
03.13.2012 01:07 PM
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NCAA Tournament East Regional
No. 7 Gonzaga -1 vs. No. 10 West Virginia O/U 133
Thursday, 4:20 pm PT - Pittsburgh, Pa.
Rob Veno Power Rating: Gonzaga -3
Betting Take:
West Virginia somehow slipped into the tournament despite only four wins since January 25 (Providence, Pitt, DePaul and South Florida). Last year, the Mountaineers were +4.4 in points per possession scored vs. allowed in Big East play. This year's mark was a mediocre +1.6. They still play hard and still hit the offensive glass with reckless abandon but they don't defend particularly well and are the worst three-point shooting team in the Big East at 28.7%. Gonzaga should be able to handle WVU's size and physical nature with 7-0 Robert Sacre, 6-7 Elias Harris and 6-9 Sam Dower. The one concern with the Zags is can they win on the road? In "step up" road games, Gonzaga lost to Illinois, St. Mary's, BYU and San Francisco. Their best road win came against a Xavier squad that while at full strength was still reeling from suspensions. Note also the proximity (75 miles) of this contest for West Virginia.
Lock in full College Basketball
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NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: South Florida Bulls vs. California Golden Bears
03.13.2012 12:51 PM
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NCAA Tournament Midwest Regional
No. 12 South Florida vs. No. 12 California -3 O/U 115
Wednesday, 6 pm PT - Dayton, Ohio
Rob Veno Power Rating: California -1.5
Betting Take:
Play-in game with the winner taking on Temple. No question South Florida played a favorable Big East schedule but the Bulls still won 12 league games in one of the best conferences in the country while California didn't even win the PAC-12 regular season or the PAC-12 Tournament. The Golden Bears have the advantage on offense with multiple players who can score from all over the court. But South Florida has one of the best defenses in the tournament – even when accounting for the slow pace of its games. The Bulls ranked first in the Big East in effective field goal percentage defense (42.1%) and 2-point field goal percentage (42.2%). In comparison, Cal ranked 4th in both categories in the much weaker PAC-12. The total is certainly reflective of USF’s ability to control tempo. In Big East play, only once (a blowout vs. Georgetown) did a game involving the Bulls top 64 possessions.
Lock in full College Basketball Tournament
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NCAA Tournament Betting Alert: Syracuse's leading rebounder Melo ineligible
03.13.2012 12:33 PM
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More drama for Syracuse as center
Fab Melo has been ruled ineligible
for the NCAA Tournament. While not a prolific scorer, Melo was the team's leading rebounder (5.8 per game) and shot blocker (2.9 per game). The Orange rank 129th nationally in team rebounding. Syracuse dropped from -17 to as low as -15.5 for its first round matchup against UNC-Asheville. The total was bet up slightly to 146. Melo missed three games mid-season and the Orange went 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS. They were outrebounded a combined 108-80 in those three games. Pinnacle has Syracuse's odds to win the East Regional now at "Yes" +319 and "No" -400.
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College Basketball NIT Betting Trend
03.13.2012 12:16 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Often times we assume power conference teams that get "snubbed" from the NCAA Tournament and sent to the NIT don't really want to be there. But often times these "snubbed" teams are rewarded with home games and the turnaround from conference tournament to NIT is so short, there isn't much time to sit around and sulk. I went back the last five years and took the top 2 seeds from each NIT "pod" which ends up being eight teams total. Sort of arbitrary, but you figure past those eight are teams that didn't expect to be in the NCAA Tournament anyway or are mid-majors. For example, last year's no. 3 seeds were Dayton, Colorado State, Missouri State and Oklahoma State.
With those eight teams, I took a look at their first round games (almost all of which were at home with the exception of Boston College who was shipped to McNeese State last year) and then the overall results. Keep in mind, the overall numbers are skewed some as a lot of these teams eventually played one another. What I came up with was pretty surprising.
From a straight up perspective, our top eight teams went 37-3 SU and a respectable 24-16 (60%) ATS in the first round and
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Your options for watching and betting the NCAA Tournament in Las Vegas
03.13.2012 09:24 AM
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The
Las Vegas Sun
provided details on your options for viewing this year's NCAA Tournament. Of note, the $2 shots of Jameson at Stations Casino – a must after UNLV blows a 15-point lead against Colorado.
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Sports Betting Podcast 3-13-2012 with Brent Crow and Teddy Covers
03.13.2012 09:14 AM
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Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Brent Crow and Teddy Covers. Brent provided analysis on the College Basketball slate while Teddy took care of the entire NBA card from a betting perspective.
Today's segments
Brent Crow - College Basketball Every Game on the Board
Teddy Covers - NBA Every Game on the Board
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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Brent Crow
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NCAA Tournament Gambling: Turnovers and rebounding keys to upsets
03.13.2012 07:50 AM
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Article from
The Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective
on predicting upsets in the NCAA Tournament. Two important factors in determining upsets are turnovers and rebounding.
VCU will be a very trendy upset pick this year because of their run last season, but this model adores the Rams because of their ability to force turnovers (best in the nation) and take care of the ball (27th best in the nation). A note of caution, however: VCU is a big outlier. Since this model is looking for average effects, it may not do as well out of sample predicting teams far away from the average, like VCU.
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NBA Gambling Notes: Adelman says Minnesota will miss Rubio's defense
03.13.2012 07:38 AM
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Minnesota head coach Rick Adelman noted that Ricky Rubio’s injury may have more on an impact on the
defensive end of the floor
. Prior to tearing his ACL, Rubio was third in the league in steals. In his absence, the Timberwolves allowed 95 points to New Orleans and 124 in last night’s win over Phoenix.
"I think we're really going to miss him there because he's really good at keeping his guy in front of him," Wolves coach Rick Adelman said. "That's probably the biggest thing. The way we play is going to change some and that concerns me more than anything else. We have to be solid defensively if we're going to be able to play a different way and we weren't that way against New Orleans.
"We may have to tweak things and come at it from a different way now. It's not so much the X's and O's, it's the energy level he always brought us."
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NBA Handicapping: Knicks continue to thrive at consistently playing bad basketball
03.13.2012 07:29 AM
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The New York Knicks dropped their
sixth straight game
last night in Chicago, 104-99. They've now allowed over 100 points in seven of their last eight contests. Carmelo Anthony kept his streak of crappy play intact with an 8-for-21, 38% effort from the floor. For the second time this season, Amar'e Stoudemire called out teammates for not being physically and mentally prepared to play (Amar'e had the worst +/- on the team last night). The lone bright spot for the Knicks was that they notched their first pointspread cover (+8.5) in six tries.
"It [stinks]," Anthony said. "The situation we're in right now . . . the way we've been losing games. Not a good feeling right now. Hopefully, tomorrow we'll feel better. But tonight it's not a good feeling. We need to get our act together and start to win basketball games."
"We got to get ourselves mentally prepared," he said. "We just got to make sure we're in the weight room, warming up, getting our bodies ready, getting our mind ready,
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College Basketball Betting Notes: Northwestern not pleased with NIT seed
03.13.2012 06:53 AM
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Akron
at
Northwestern
-6.5 O/U
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade. So what if you were 1-10 vs. the RPI top 50. So what if you haven't made an NCAA Tournament since...well ever.
You got a home game in the NIT baby!
Wait. You're disappointed with your NIT seed too? Umm, did we mention you were 1-10 VS. THE RPI TOP 50!?!? Just be glad you didn't get shipped to Quinnipiac for the CBI.
“I was surprised,” Carmody said. “I thought we were a higher seed than that. I thought we were at worst a two seed.
“There was disappointment yesterday, but the real disappointment was Thursday [losing to Minnesota in the Big Ten tournament.] You have five days. I think that was the disappointment. As it turns out, the way it looks to be, even if we had beaten those guys, we weren’t getting in.
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Top 10 tips for gambling on the 2012 NCAA Tournament
03.13.2012 06:35 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
When March Madness rolls around, no one is immune to the itch to get in on the action, whether it’s laying down a bet or simply competing in an office pool. I’ll share my Top 10 NCAA Tournament gambling strategies in this article. There are no surprises here – veteran bettors know this stuff already, but it never hurts to think about these concepts again before the Big Dance begins.
1) Fade the teams that looked great last weekend
There’s no such thing as carrying over momentum from conference tournament weekend to the Big Dance. Of the Top 16 teams in the Big Dance – the top four teams from each region – only four of them (Michigan State, Louisville, Missouri and Florida State) won their conference tournaments.
Many of the top contenders for the national title dropped out early; focusing on this coming weekend as opposed to last weekend. The teams that went all out to secure a bid or win their conference title but came up short, like Cincinnati, Baylor and San Diego State , tend to be particularly strong on the fade list.
2) Winning your office pool requires luck
When
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15
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12
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Accu-Stats
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Teddy sees a massive edge in the pitching matchup on this game, one the market is seemingly unwilling to factor into the price. Take advantage of the generous offering and grab Teddy's Game of the Week for just $20. It wins or his top baseball report is yours free tomorrow.
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