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Final Four Betting Stats: Kentucky struggles ATS vs. better defenses

03.30.2012     08:49 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Taking a look at Kentucky's results against the top five defenses on its schedule. I used Ken Pom's defensive efficiency ratings. Louisville is currently the no. 1 team in the country at 0.84 points per possession allowed. Of the six games, the Wildcats went 6-0 SU but 2-4 ATS. Four of the six games went UNDER the total.

No. 1 Louisville (0.84 ppp allowed)
Result: Kentucky 69, Louisville (+10) 62; Under 136

No. 4 Kansas (0.86)
Result: Kentucky (-6.5) 75, Kansas 65; Under 147.5

No. 8 Alabama (0.88)
Result: Kentucky 77, Alabama (+10) 71; Over 130

No. 10 North Carolina (0.88)
Result: Kentucky 73, North Carolina (+6.5) 72; Under 156.5

No. 30 Vanderbilt (0.93)
Result: Kentucky (-4.5) 69, Vanderbilt 63; Under 135.5
Result: Kentucky 83, Vanderbilt (+11.5) 74; Over 138.5

Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Louisville Cardinals Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Preview: No La Russa or Duncan for St. Louis Cardinals

03.30.2012     08:25 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
St. Louis Cardinals
2011 Record: 90-72
2011 Profits: +2.3 units
2011 O/U: 86-71-5
Pinnacle's 2012 NL Central Odds: +238
Greek's 2012 Season O/U Wins: 84.5ov-130

St. Louis went 86-71 to the OVER; huge money losers before 23-9 finish to the season.  8-1 as underdogs during that stretch, 15-9 as chalk.  Underdogs in 12 of 18 playoff games (6-6 in those games). 

Jamie Garcia posted 20 OVERS, tied with Roy Halladay for most in MLB.

Tony La Russa (retired), pitching coach Dave Duncan (leave of absence) and, perhaps most importantly, first baseman Albert Pujols. Brought in new manager Mike Matheny.  Not a killer lineup: Berkman old, Holliday old, Yadier Molina ancient, Carlos Beltran old.

Right-hander Jason Motte, a star in the postseason as the Cardinals' final closer of half dozen or so who were auditioned, will be given the task at the start of the season. But there is no real veteran setup man ahead of him.

Kyle Lohse, Jaime Garcia, Adam Wainwright, Jake Westbrook, and Lance Read more

Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers

MLB Betting Preview: Milwaukee Brewers move on sans Prince Fielder

03.30.2012     08:13 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Milwaukee Brewers
2011 Record: 96-66
2011 Profits: +21.0 units
2011 O/U: 76-77-9
Pinnacle's 2012 NL Central Odds: +228
Pinnacle's 2012 Season O/U Wins: 85ov-137

Milwaukee was no. 2 in MLB in money earned last year, but were money losers on the highway: 57-24 at Miller Park; 39-42 away. Winning record against all three NL division; 78-48 vs. righties, .500 vs. lefties.

Randy Wolf was 11-21 O/U, Shaun Marcum 11-20 O/U yet the team finished 77-77 O/U.

.686 opponent OPS – only five teams were better.

The infield defense, which plagued the Brewers throughout the 2011 season and was particularly damaging in the NLCS loss to St. Louis, looked much improved in spring camp.

0 – Games lost by the Brewers in the second half of the 2011 season when they lead after seven innings.

The question mark as the end of camp neared was Marcum, who was set back early in camp by shoulder inflammation.

Bullpen: John Axford (closer), Francisco Rodriguez, Jose Veras, and Kameron Read more

Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers Teddy Covers

NBA Gambling: Orlando Magic try to bounce back after awful showing in New York

03.30.2012     07:30 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Dallas at Orlando -5.5 O/U 186.5

Don't let the 22-point loss fool you; it was MUCH worse for the Orlando Magic last time out against the New York Knicks. During the second and third quarters, the Magic were outscored 55-30! It wasn't the first "no show" loss for Orlando this season. Last week they were pounded by a Derrick Rose-less Chicago Bulls squad 85-59. In early March, they lost at Charlotte by 16. Tonight, they’ll try to bounce back against the Dallas Mavericks.

"I think there's a lot of times throughout the year where we kind of take days off or just think we can shoot our way back in games. For us to really think of ourselves as a championship team, we've got to have an identity. We don't have that every game. When we do have it, when we bring it, we compete with anybody

Read more

Tags: NBA Orlando Magic Dallas Mavericks

NBA Betting Notes: San Antonio Spurs thrive on offense, cover pointspreads

03.30.2012     07:15 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Great quote from San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich on the offense-first philosophy his team has adopted over the last two years.

“We spend more time working on offense these days, because our defense won't be as good as it used to be in the past,” Popovich said. “It just won't.”

The Spurs are one of only four teams to average over 100 ppg and rank 17th in points allowed (96.4 ppg). Perhaps the most impressive stat is the league-best 30-18 ATS mark. That with Popovich and his aging veterans all but waving the white flag during difficult scheduling spots.

“You have to score a lot more points now,” Duncan said. “I don't think it's the league of old, where you can score in the 80s and defend your butt off and still win championships.”

Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs

NBA Handicapping: Denver's long road trip continues in Charlotte

03.30.2012     07:05 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Denver -8.5 at Charlotte O/U 203.5

Tonight marks the fifth of seven straight road games for the Denver Nuggets (1-3 SU/ATS first four). They are currently on the outside looking in of the Western Conference playoffs.

"Young teams have a tendency to stay in that Pond of Misery longer. We jumped out and beat a good team on their court," Karl said. "Hopefully we can ride that into confidence. Pond of Misery, that's a new one for me. You don't want to hang out there."

"For the past month, we haven't had a proper focus after a good game," shooting guard Arron Afflalo said. "We've done a great job of bouncing back and recovering, but usually when we win a game, we come out and lose the next one. That's a habit that we can't afford to have at this point in the season."

Tags: NBA Denver Nuggets Charlotte Bobcats

The odds of you winning the $500 million Mega Jackpot are not good

03.30.2012     06:40 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
There is a good chance you are not going to win today's $500 million Mega Millions jackpot (1 in 176 million odds). Sorry. But if you crave long shots, here are some that provide better odds.

Hitting "00" in Roulette: 1 in 38
Getting struck by lightning: 1 in 280,000
Charlotte Bobcats win two games in a row 1 in 1.2 million (kidding!)
Perfect NCAA Bracket: 1 in 13.5 million
Winning a progressive slot jackpot: 1 in 25 million



NBA Gambling News: Memphis Grizzlies face daunting schedule in April

03.29.2012     02:52 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Tough stretch for the Memphis Grizzlies upcoming as they play five games in six nights, including a back-to-back-to-back. It goes beyond that though with 12 games in 17 days. During that stretch, they'll face a bevy of playoff teams: Oklahoma City, Miami, Dallas (twice), San Antonio, the LA Clippers and Utah. Note that early in March, the Grizzlies' starting five were among the tops in the league in minutes played.

"We've all marked that on the schedule," Conley said. "My main thing is making sure everybody is healthy going through it."

The Grizzlies are among the last teams to play one of 42 back-to-back-to-back sets during this lockout-shortened season. The 50-game 1999 season featured 64 sets of back-to-back-to-backs and was plagued by sloppy basketball played on fatigued legs.

Tags: NBA Memphis Grizzlies

NBA Betting Notes: Washington Wizards defy logic, start playing decent defense

03.29.2012     02:29 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
How many articles, blogs or minutes for that matter have been dedicated to the “Washington Wizards” and “defense” this season? Well, they have allowed just 88.8 ppg over their last six games (0-6 O/U). Five of those games were straight up losses but four were spread covers which suggests this team has some value and is actually starting to play decent basketball.

"I told our guys, 'Listen, we're all disappointed, probably a little frustration,” Wizards coach Randy Wittman said. "'But don't lose sight of what we're doing -- putting ourselves in position to win games against playoff teams.' Even the Boston game [an 88-76 loss], as bad as the first half was, we had an opportunity in the second half to make it a game."

Tags: NBA Washington Wizards

Final Four Gambling: John Calipari tells everyone to bet the OVER Saturday

03.29.2012     12:25 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Louisville vs. Kentucky -8.5 O/U 137.5

This is either the greatest bit of sports betting information EVER or just another basketball coach telling the media what it wants to hear.

John Calipari: “I think our game Saturday is going to be in the 90s. We don't want to be in a hurry to score, but we want to play fast. I think the games are going to be a little more jumbled up (in the Final Four) and the teams are going to go up and down. It should be exciting.”

Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Louisville Cardinals

MLB Handicapping: Philadelphia Phillies could be vulnerable due to age

03.29.2012     12:14 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The Philadelphia Phillies are a -135 favorite to win the National League East, the clear cut choice to win the National League +300, and sport the lowest odds to win the World Series (+630). But it doesn't seem so cut and dry when we consider how many aging and injury prone players are on the roster.

According to Nate Silver, "the steepest part of the aging curve -- when a hitter experiences the most manifest decline in his abilities -- tends to come between ages 32 and 34." It can be devastating enough to an offense when two or three hitters enter this period of accelerated decline at the same time. The Phillies are entering it as a team.

The Philadelphia Phillies are coming off their fifth straight season as the top team in the National League East. For the first time in years they’re looking vulnerable, which prompted one scout to

Read more

Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies

National League East Betting News and Notes

03.29.2012     11:45 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Philadelphia posted 102 wins during the regular season last year; best in majors by five games over the New York Yankees, six over Milwaukee. Yet the Phillies were STILL only fifth in MLB profits – 75% of which came on the road: 52 home wins only +3.41 units.  30-14 vs. southpaws was the best winning percentage in baseball.

Washington won 80 games last year yet only one unit of profit behind Philadelphia.  Not likely this year – the betting markets love this team!  The Nationals have started talking about a new subject during the offseason and spring training – the playoffs.

New York was awful at Citi Field (34-47 almost -19 units in 81 games) and decided moving in the fences would give them some sort of advantage – that other teams won’t have?  They were however 43-38 on road +17.5 units.   92 OVERS were the most in the MLB in 2012. The bullpen was 28th in ERA and batting average against. Wilpon’s have no money – had to give it all to Bernie Madoff victims.  $162 million – Picard had originally sued Wilpon and Katz.

Atlanta posted 89 wins compared to Mets’ 77 yet Read more

Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets Miami Marlins Washington Nationals Atlanta Braves Teddy Covers

Sports Betting Podcast 3-29-2012 with Handicapper Sammy P

03.29.2012     09:43 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Sammy P. Sam broke down tonight's NHL card from a betting perspective.

Today's segments
Sammy P - NHL Every Game on the Board

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NHL Sammy P sportsmemo podcast handicapper radio show itunes betting bet football preview basketball hockey

Of course Chinese middle schoolers got busted for betting on the NBA

03.29.2012     09:03 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
As a parent, this is probably not a good thing. As a bettor, it pretty much kicks ass.

"We are cautious not to punish the students severely," said Liu. "They just made a mistake and we don't want to see their futures ruined by this."

According to Liu, the students were not playing for high stakes, only 5 yuan to 200 yuan each person every time.

"The student gamblers are different from ordinary gamblers. For the students, making a correct prediction was more important than winning money," Liu said.

Sportsbooks offer lines on women's college and pro basketball

03.29.2012     08:08 AM     Printer Friendly
Article in ESPN the Magazine about betting on women's basketball – the best example of bet-it-and-forget-it we can think of.

"But in women's college hoops, the disparity between the three or four great teams and everyone else is too big," Kornegay says. "No one wants to bet those games unless it is a marquee matchup. There is no edge."

"Pros assume they are betting something off the beaten path, but we pay attention to it," Kornegay says. "It is just another gambling event we can offer. One in which we all think there is an opportunity."

NBA Handicapping: Miami Heat get back to basis after two straight losses

03.29.2012     07:53 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Dallas at Miami -8 O/U 188.5

After back-to-back double-digit losses, the Miami Heat got back to basics in preperation for tonight's game against Dallas. Head coach Erik Spoelstra noted that the pedal-to-the-metal philosophy used early in the season has been missing. Over their last 13 games, the Heat are 7-6 SU, 4-9 ATS and 3-9-1 O/U.

"You watch our Christmas Day game compared to the last two games, of the force and pace that we played with that day, it's night-and-day different," Spoelstra said. "We can control that. We respect the Dallas Mavericks obviously from last year . . . but right now, out of due respect, it's about us, it's about getting to our game, our identity."

"Today was about recalibrating," Spoelstra said following the session. "It's not about watching film. It's not about talking. It's about getting

Read more

Tags: NBA Miami Heat Dallas Mavericks

MLB Gambling Notes: Kuroda's numbers suggest he may struggle at Yankee Stadium

03.29.2012     07:22 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Great find by ESPN as they pointed out the potential struggles for newly acquired starter Hiroki Kuroda at Yankee Stadium. The left-handed power numbers vs. Kuroda last year were alarmingly high. This of course not a good recipe to have with such a short porch in right field – not to mention tossing in the American League.

Lefties hit 33 fly balls and line drives against Kuroda along the right field line (we started at that line and extended out 15 degrees from that point to define this area). That’s a rate of about one per game.

Those 33 fly balls traveled an average of 315 feet, the furthest for any pitcher in the majors last season. Ex-Yankee A.J. Burnett ranked second, 310 feet.

Why is that particularly worrisome in Yankee Stadium? Remember the distance from home plate to the fence in the right field corner?

It’s 314 feet.

Tags: MLB New York Yankees





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