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MLB Handicapping: Bettors likely to maintain fade of Tim Lincecum
04.17.2012 02:07 PM
Printer Friendly
UPDATE
FanGraphs
tries to make the case that Tim Lincecum's rough start to the season may only be temporary. They use previous seasons to indicate dramatic drops in velocity early on followed by eventual turnarounds. We've talked a lot of about velocity in these pages of late and Lincecum isn't the only one currently in decline (not to mention his BAbip is an ungodly .435). Perhaps it is a small nagging injury and coming from a guy who rarely misses starts (and reportedly doesn't ice his arm) admitting as such would be embarrassing. That or maybe he is just wearing down after reaching 1,000 innings in just five years. Either way, while many have righted the ship before him, betting on Lincecum at this point remains difficult.
MLB Gambling Update: Lincecum tries to bounce back after back-to-back
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MLB
San Francisco Giants
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Free MLB Betting Pick: Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox
04.17.2012 11:51 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Baltimore (Chen) +115 at Chicago (Danks) O/U 8
Recommendation: Baltimore
John Danks is a notoriously slow starter, with a history of miserable early season results. The numbers don’t lie. Last year, Chicago went 1-10 in Danks’ first 11 trips to the hill, and he had an ERA above 5.00 heading into June. His career splits show a 16-25 record for the first two months of the season, compared to seven games over .500 from June 1st onwards. He struggled in both starts against this Orioles lineup last year: ten runs and 15 hits allowed in just 12.1 innings of work. The White Sox bullpen behind him isn’t fresh, after short stints from Phil Humber and Chris Sale over the past two days. And Chicago’s lineup isn’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball with their bats, ranked 12th among 14 American League teams in runs scored this year while hitting just .237 as a team. While Chicago has lost two straight following its surprisingly hot start – coming back to earth – the Orioles remain alone in first place in the best division in baseball. They are in excellent current form,
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Chicago White Sox
Baltimore Orioles
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NFL Gambling News: New York Jets wisely focus on improving run game
04.17.2012 11:23 AM
Printer Friendly
New York Jets guard Matt Slauson did his best to hype up next year's offense with quarterbacks
Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow
. According to Slauson, the team is set on returning to a "Ground and Pound" attack. In other words they don't want to rely on either quarterback's arm to win games. The Jets were 22nd in the league in rushing last year at 105.8 ypg after ranking first in 2009 (172.3 ypg) and fourth in 2010 (148.4 ypg).
"You guys will be really surprised by what Mark's going to do this year," Slauson said. "The way we're going to be running things plays right into Mark's strengths, running the ball. It'll be very similar to what we did in Rex's first two years, very much a style like that -- heavy run, heavy play action and whipping out a deep ball every now and again. That's all the stuff Mark does really well."
"There's no question about it. That's how we look at it, but we know that Tim can help us, too. There's no doubt. ... Mark is our starting quarterback," Ryan said
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NBA Handicapping: Allen returns vs. Knicks, Celtics eye Atlantic Division title
04.17.2012 11:08 AM
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Boston
at
New York
-3 O/U 183
The Celtics can clinch the Atlantic Division title tonight with a win over New York and a Philadelphia loss (vs. Indiana). Ray Allen is
expected to suit up
after missing four games with swelling in his ankle. Paul Pierce remains "questionable" with a toe injury. Boston has won and covered two of the three meetings this season.
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Boston Celtics
New York Knicks
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Sports Betting Podcast 4-17-2012 with Handicapper Teddy Covers
04.17.2012 09:33 AM
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Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy broke down tonight's MLB and NBA games from a betting perspective.
Today's segments
Teddy Covers - MLB and NBA Every Game on the Board
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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MLB
Teddy Covers
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Pay Per Head shops gain popularity among bookies and bettors
04.17.2012 08:22 AM
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Article in the
New York Times
about the popularity of Pay Per Head sportsbooks.
“There is always going to be a huge market for local bookmakers because they are the ones who let players bet with credit, with money they don’t have to produce,” Steve Budin, a gambling expert who formerly operated an online sports book, said. “People don’t want to give out their credit cards or send money offshore someplace. They like dealing with real people and real cash. These sites just make it a whole lot easier for the bookies serving them.”
“Younger bettors are used to ease and quality — they don’t want busy signals or guys who don’t answer their phone,” Budin said. “They want Web sites. They want a number they can trust where someone says, ‘How can I help you?’ if they have to call.”
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MLB Gambling Notes: Scout not impressed with Darvish, compares him to Dice-K
04.17.2012 08:13 AM
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UPDATE
One scout
has not been impressed
with Texas' Yu Darvish through two starts. Texas won both games but Darvish allowed 17 hits and eight walks in 11.1 innings. More importantly, he was a -235 home favorite and -155 road favorite – prices that are unlikely to change much given Texas' current place in the betting markets. Darvish is slated to start Friday in Detroit.
“He’s going to give up a ton of hits,” the scout said. “A lot of his fastballs are very straight. The guy is supposed to throw hard. But he basically pitched at 89 to 92, touching 93-94. That’s pretty good in Japan. It’s not very good here.
“He has a good cutter, a good curveball. But when he gets in trouble, he turns into a breaking-ball guy – nibble, nibble, he won’t let it go. He reminded me of
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British bookmaker William Hill runs into trouble gaining US gaming license
04.17.2012 08:04 AM
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UPDATE
British bookmaker William Hill has run into some difficulty attaining a
gaming license
in the United States. Rumor has it some of Hill's higher-ups were involved in past shady dealings that Nevada regulators are thoroughly investigating.
"We said that this process would take between 12 to 18 months and we believe that a decision will be made in that timeframe. We are fully complying with the whole process and have no further comment to make."
"I've been through licensing processes before but, I have to say, nothing as extensive as this. And it's not only at a corporate level that we're investigated and scrutinised, but at the personal level too. I haven't felt this closely assessed since I met my prospective father-in-law for the first time!!"
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Of course there is a website for hedging wedding gifts
04.17.2012 07:52 AM
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Going to wedding this summer that has little to no chance of working out? No worries thanks to a website that allows guests to
hedge on the purchase of wedding gifts
.
After buying a gift, guests simply register on the company's website, pay 8% of the gift's purchase price, and upload a copy of the receipt. If the marriage dissolves within three years, Wedding Gift Refund will reimburse the full price of the present.
For example, according to numbers compiled by The Wall Street Journal, Massachusetts has 1.8 divorces per thousand marriages, the lowest rate in the country, while Nevada has a staggering 6.6 divorces per thousand marriages. In other words, a Vegas marriage is nearly four times as likely to fail as a Boston one.
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Full Tilt Poker updating website, hiring customer service reps
04.17.2012 07:37 AM
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Appears to be some activity going on with Full Tilt Poker as reports are out that the website was up and running yesterday. According to
Poker News Report
, Full Tilt was testing out its latest version and is also hiring customer service reps.
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MLB Betting Notes: Boston's Bard shows signs of promise
04.17.2012 07:32 AM
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Boston's Daniel Bard is becoming an interesting case study after switching from the bullpen to starting rotation. Yesterday, Bard allowed one earned run in 6.2 innings against Tampa Bay but walked seven batters thanks to some
spotty command with the fastball
. He did however fan seven batters and had 13 swinging strikes. In his first start against Toronto he recorded an amazing 17 swinging strikes. Clearly, this kid has
legit stuff
even though it may take some time for him to put everything together.
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MLB Handicapping Update: Molina, umpire help key Tampa Bay win
04.17.2012 07:22 AM
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UPDATE
Yesterday, we posted a blog (see below) on the impact catchers can have in preventing runs. One of those highlighted was Tampa’s Jose Molina who has developed a reputation for being one of the better pitch framers in the game. Nowhere was this more apparent than during yesterday's infamous Cody Ross at-bat to end the game. Part of it may have had to do with umpire Larry Vanover but according to
FanGraphs
, Molina seemed aware of Vanover's tendencies and took advantage. That or Vanover had somewhere to be after the game.
MLB Handicapping Tips: The impact catchers have on preventing runs
04.16.2012 12:05 PM
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April
16
Sportsmemo Weekly All Sports Special Offer
04.16.2012 02:24 PM
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Coverage through April 22. Order
online
or call 1-800-575-3069.
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NBA Betting Notes and Quotes 4-6-2012
04.16.2012 01:46 PM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
It’s been a few weeks since I’ve offered some notes and quotes from around the NBA. The end of this hurried and abbreviated regular season is looming – the playoffs start next weekend. It’s time for a 1500 word tour around the league in an effort to identify some “bet-on” and “bet-against” teams between now and the beginning of the postseason.
The
Minnesota Timberwolves
enter the stretch run of the season on their longest losing streak since their 15 game skid to close out last year. Leading scorer and rebounder Kevin Love has no current timetable to return from his lingering concussion. Point guard Ricky Rubio has been out for months, and his replacement, Luke Ridnour, is dealing with a sprained right ankle that has caused him to miss their last six defeats.
Center Nikola Pekovic made it very clear what Minnesota’s biggest issue is right now: “We need some other players to step up.” But even with 20+ point efforts from JJ Barea, Michael Beasley and Anthony Randolph last Saturday against Oklahoma City, the T-wolves couldn’t snap their losing
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MLB Betting Notes: Pittsburgh Pirates continue to thrive at not playing smart baseball
04.16.2012 12:32 PM
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Just in case you thought the Pittsburgh Pirates organization was moving in the right direction we present to you the chart below. Those are top nine players in terms of plate appearances. You'll notice that in 220 trips to the plate, those nine have a grand total of six walks! As a team, the Pirates have taken 13 base on balls and struck out 73 times in 310 PAs. Note that of their nine games, four were against Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Clayton Kershaw and Matt Cain – premium arms that don't give too many free passes. But even with last year’s small stretch of success early on, the overall philosophy in Pittsburgh simply has not changed. Weaker offensive teams have to find ways to manufacture runs and it starts with plate discipline. The fact that first round pick Pedro Alvarez is batting .051 and has yet to take a walk would never fly on a team like Tampa Bay. Wonder if
these guys
are back in action this year?
Pittsburgh Pirates Batting Stats through 4/16/2011
Player
PA
AB
BB
SO
BA
OBP
Alex Presley
37
35
1
8
0.286
0.306
Andrew McCutchen
37
33
3
4
0.333
0.405
Jose Tabata
31
30
0
6
0.133
0.161
Neil Walker
30
29
1
5
0.172
0.200
Clint Barmes
29
26
0
8
0.115
0.179
Casey McGehee
22
22
0
2
0.318
0.318
Rod Barajas
21
20
1
4
0.050
0.095
Pedro Alvarez
19
19
0
12
0.053
0.053
Garrett Jones
18
18
0
6
0.222
0.222
Results
244
232
6
55
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MLB Handicapping Tips: The impact catchers have on preventing runs
04.16.2012 12:05 PM
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A few very interesting articles regarding the impact catches can have on "runs saved." Baseball Prospectus took
multiple variables
and ranked them with Tampa Bay's Jose Molina atop a majority of the categories. According to BP, from 2008-11
Molina prevented 103 runs
based on his defense, the throwing out of would be base stealers and perhaps most important, the ability to frame pitches. Even more impressive is that Molina played in about half the amount of games as others on the list.
As we have learned from reading Jonah Keri’s The Extra 2%, the Rays are looking for wins that can be bought at a low price, just as the Moneyball Athletics were. It’s quite likely that the 10-to-20 runs above average Jose Molina could contribute by inducing the umpires to call a few more borderline strikes would come cheaper than an equivalent amount produced by the bat of another catcher.
I’m positive that the Rays are aware of Jose Molina’s framing skill
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NBA late-season situational handicapping
04.16.2012 10:20 AM
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Submitted by
I started a thread in the Sportsmemo posting forum about the late season playoff push and Western Conference teams playing for the final playoff spots. Here is a list of the teams battling for a playoff position and a top-8 spot along with their remaining schedules.
5. Memphis (35-25)... at Minn, NO, at Char, Port, Cleve, Orl
6. Dallas (34-27)...at Utah, Hou, GS, at Chic, at Atl
7. Denver (33-27)...at Hou, LAC, at Phoenix, Orl, at OKC, at Minn
8. Houston (32-28)...Denver, at Dallas, at NO, GS, at Miami, NO
9. Phoenix (31-29)...Port, OKC, LAC, Denver, at Utah, SA
10. Utah (31-30)...Dallas, at Port, Orl, Phoenix, Port
Phoenix holds the tiebreaker advantage over Utah while the Jazz have the tiebreaker edge over Houston and Denver.
The Nuggets beat the Rockets last night in Denver and play at Houston tonight in a home and away back-to-back. The Suns are a huge, adjusted favorite (-11) over the Trailblazers tonight after Portland saw their final outside chance at the playoffs slip away with a last second loss at Sacramento Sunday.
Utah has a huge game tonight at home against the defending champion Dallas
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Sports Betting Podcast 4-16-2012 with Rob Veno and Erin Rynning
04.16.2012 10:13 AM
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Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Rob Veno and Erin Rynning. Rob broke down tonight's MLB games while Erin took care of the NBA card from a betting perspective.
Today's segments
Rob Veno - MLB Every Game on the Board
Erin Rynning - NBA Every Game on the Board
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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MLB
Rob Veno
Erin Rynning
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NBA Handicapping: Atlanta Hawks in tank mode for sixth seed?
04.16.2012 08:08 AM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
Last night's half assed performance at home vs. a depleted Toronto team (102-86) caused ESPN's John Hollinger to tweet this:
Interesting playoff tanking situation emerging between Atlanta and Orlando -- I imagine both greatly prefer facing Indy to facing Boston...
Hawks are 11-2 SU vs. Indiana L13 but after reading some extremely positive player quotes about the team's current form prior to yesterday's upset loss, I can't personally see them shying away from anyone.
We'll see what happens tonight where the money has already poured in on Philadelphia in their road game at Orlando while Atlanta could solidify themselves as tankers if they blow back-to-backs vs. Toronto. Bettors have faith in the Hawks pushing them to -5.5.
Eastern Conference Playoff Standings as of 4/16
1. Chicago --
2. Miami 3.5
3. Indiana 8.0
4. Boston 10.5
5. Atlanta 11.0
6. Orlando 11.0
7. Philadelphia 14.5
8. New York 15.0
9. Milwaukee 17.0
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Sportsmemo's Crow and Lange win weekend bass tournament
04.16.2012 07:56 AM
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Sportsmemo handicappers Brent Crow and Andrew Lange took home the $1,000 first place prize at a bass tournament on Alabama's Smith Lake this past Saturday. When asked how it felt to win his first-ever tournament Lange responded, "I'll be honest, the fact that I didn't hook my partner in the back or fall in the lake was in my eyes a pretty big accomplishment."
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MLB Betting Update: Los Angeles Angels continue to struggle
04.16.2012 07:41 AM
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UPDATE
Slow start for the hyped
Los Angeles Angels
(3-6, -5.50 units) who are set to begin a seven-game home stand against Oakland and Baltimore. One scout said he found it hard to believe the Angels won't be in the mix considering the team's starting pitching depth. But, the bullpen has been shaky as has the plate discipline (.315 OBP).
"They can be pitched to, because they have so many free swingers. They have a lot of guys who like to swing the bat."
Even after adding patient hitters Pujols and Chris Iannetta, the Angels went into Sunday having walked in 6.5 percent of their plate appearances, putting them 24th in the league in that category. Vernon Wells, Peter Bourjos and Morales still haven't taken a walk. Decline, obviously, could also be a factor. The average age of the Nos. 3 through 6 hitters Friday was nearly 35.
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Philadelphia Eagles eager to cash in on casino advertising
04.16.2012 07:31 AM
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With multiple casinos in the area, the Philadelphia Eagles are eager to cash in on the NFL’s recent ruling on
casino advertisements
. Teams are now able to promote casinos on stadium signs, game programs and radio broadcasts. Gaming facilities with sports betting will not be included.
"As Philly's casino, SugarHouse 'bleeds green,' so we would welcome the opportunity to work with the Eagles," general manager Wendy Hamilton said.
"Obviously, the NFL can't claim any moral certitude to its opposition to sports betting any longer," said New Jersey Sen. Ray Lesniak (D., Union), who sponsored a bill to allow sports betting at Atlantic City casinos and racetracks that passed in January and who is behind an effort to overturn the federal ban. "It's a further example of the hypocrisy of the NFL."
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MLB Gambling Update: Lincecum tries to bounce back after back-to-back stinkers
04.16.2012 06:39 AM
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UPDATE
Philadelphia
-115 (Halladay) at
San Francisco
(Lincecum) O/U 6
Article on the
current state
of Tim Lincecum. Lincecum (0-1, 12.91 ERA) is off of the shortest start of his career (2.1 IP, 6 runs) and squares off against Roy Halladay tonight.
"I know he's going to be pitching on his 'A' game," Lincecum said, "and it just makes me want to be on my 'A' game even more so. ...
"Eliminating all doubts in myself, that's the biggest thing I can do. Just go out there and have confidence in my stuff because you see guys time and time again (having conviction) in whatever pitch they're throwing that day.
"Whether it's 85 or 95 (mph), you've got to have commitment in it, and I think
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San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies
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MLB Betting Tips: Declines in velocity can lead to profits
04.16.2012 06:28 AM
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Some notes on a few pitchers who have seen
declines in their velocity
compared to previous years – Stephen Strasburg and Tim Lincecum are slated to start tonight. Strasburg's decline doesn't appear to be an issue but more an attempt to "pace" himself this season. You'll notice than in the blog, we try to emphasize the importance of losses and gains in velocity. A vast majority of pitchers
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NBA Handicapping: Philadelphia 76ers start back-to-back-to-back in Orlando
04.16.2012 06:18 AM
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Philadelphia
-5 at
Orlando
O/U 181.5
Tonight marks the start of the second set of
back-to-back-to-backs
for Philadelphia this season. After tonight's game at Orlando, the 76ers return home to face Indiana and then back in the road to take on Cleveland. Philly is currently in seventh place in the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Magic are likely to be without Dwight Howard, Glen Davis and Hedo Turkoglu.
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18
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15
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