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NBA Betting Alert: Struggling Philadelphia bet up to -9.5 vs. Cleveland
04.18.2012 01:43 PM
Printer Friendly
Looks like the old "must win" situation is getting some love from the betting markets with Philadelphia bet up from -6.5 to -9.5 for tonight's road game at Cleveland. Unless there was some sort of pregame agreement that the Cavs were only going to play four players, supporting the 76ers at this price in this type of situation seems a bit risky, no? (0-3 SU/ATS last three, 6-13 SU/ATS since 3/14).
Line history courtesy of CRIS.
Tags:
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
Cleveland Cavaliers
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Kentucky Derby's large field remains a challenge for bettors
04.18.2012 01:29 PM
Printer Friendly
Article on the difficulty of betting the
Kentucky Derby
. For some, the solution has been a $1 eight-horse superfecta box ($1,680).
There is a Hall of Fame trainer who became know a decade or so ago for the frequency with which he cashed large superfecta tickets, particularly during the summer meeting at Saratoga. Eventually, his method became known to those with connections on the other side of the betting windows. When a specific set of circumstances were in place -- specifically the wide-open race with a large field -- the bet was -- and in all likelihood still is -- an eight-horse superfecta box. The key was anchored not in picking winners but in the process of elimination.
Since 2008 -- admittedly a small sample but nevertheless current and reflective of recent trends -- only one Derby winner, Big Brown, has returned less than $10.00. The favorite that year, the last horse to win both the Derby and Preakness, paid $6.80 at Churchill. In subsequent years, Mine That Bird paid $103.20, Super Saver $18 and Animal Kingdom $43.80.
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MLB Gambling Notes: Target Field wind remains big obstacle for hitters
04.18.2012 12:20 PM
Printer Friendly
TwinCities.com
did an extensive article on the impact Minnesota's Target Field has had on offenses due in large part to wind patterns. Nothing we as bettors weren't already aware of but still well worth the read.
- Target Field allowed the third-fewest home runs per game in the American League in 2010 and 2011, according to ESPN's Home Run Tracker.
-It is the fourth-toughest park in the AL for hitters, according to ESPN's Park Factors, which calculates how each ballpark plays in comparison to the league average.
"When it's warm, and the ball wants to carry, the winds are fighting that, and they're blowing through that gap in right," Huttner said. "It boils down to the way the park is laid out. The wind and weather is almost always working against the ball traveling out of Target Field."
"It's definitely frustrating as a left-handed hitter," Mauer said. "I'd be lying if I told you there aren't times at the plate where you're like, 'Oh, I've got to maybe pull a ball,'
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NBA Handicapper Free Play: New York Knicks at New Jersey Nets
04.18.2012 11:11 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
New York
at
New Jersey
+8.5 O/U 193
Recommendation: New Jersey
It’s been another long, ugly season in New Jersey, but head coach Avery Johnson still has his team fighting hard down the stretch. A matchup with their rivals from across the river isn’t likely to change that. We saw the Nets take Miami down to the wire in their last game; a wire-to-wire pointspread cover as +8.5 underdogs. Now the betting markets are trying to tell us that the Knicks – playing on the second night of back-to-backs, one night after hitting a whopping 19 three pointers in a national TV win over Boston – deserve the same market respect as Miami did two nights ago.
Plain and simple: I’m not buying that argument. If Miami was -8.5 at Jersey two days ago, the tired Knicks have no business laying the same spread. Here’s a pertinent quote from Coach Johnson following the Nets loss to Miami. “(Monday) was the first time
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New York Knicks
New Jersey Nets
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Sportsbook BetOnline shuts down poker room
04.18.2012 11:06 AM
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Sportsbook BetOnline has temporarily pulled the plug on its
poker room
, a move that reportedly caught players (some of which from the US) completely off guard. Other reports have surfaced that pro players were accused of cheating and had difficulty withdrawing funds.
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Free MLB Betting Pick: Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins
04.18.2012 10:03 AM
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Submitted by
Chicago (Garza) at Miami (Buehrle)
Recommendation: Chicago +110 1st 5 innings
We cashed a 5-inning wager this week on the Padres with underrated pitcher Cory Luebke at a plus-price over Colorado’s Jeremy Guthrie. San Diego led 5-1 after five innings on its way to a 7-1 win. Today we’ll fire with another strong starter on the road at a plus price.
Matt Garza is pitching in his prime and elevating himself among the games top pitchers. Garza is 1-0 with a 1.23 ERA in two home starts this season. He has 14 strikeouts in 14+ innings with just three walks and eight hits allowed for a 0.75 WHIP. Opponents are hitting just .160 against Garza as his ground ball profile has improved and made him even tougher to hit. Last season was Garza’s first with the Cubs after coming over to the National League from Tampa Bay. Garza went just 10-10, but he was one of the stronger pitchers in the NL with a 197 Ks in 198 innings, a 1.26 WHIP, 3.32 ERA and .245 BAA. While his road ERA was over 4.50, note he allowed just three HRs in 81 innings and he’ll face an average Marlins lineup that’s hitting just .243.
Mark Buehrle has
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Chicago Cubs
Miami Marlins
__
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Sports Betting Podcast 4-18-2012 with Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning
04.18.2012 09:59 AM
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Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning. Teddy broke down tonight's NBA games while Erin took care of the MLB card from a betting perspective.
Today's segments
Teddy Covers - NBA Every Game on the Board
Erin Rynning - MLB Every Game on the Board
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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MLB
Teddy Covers
Erin Rynning
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NBA Betting News: Miami Heat favored to win NBA title
04.18.2012 08:04 AM
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The
Las Vegas Sun
breaks down this year's contenders for the NBA Championship.
Odds to win the NBA Championship (Cantor Gaming)
Miami — Even
Oklahoma City — 3-to-1
Chicago — 9-to-2
San Antonio — 6-to-1
Los Angeles Lakers — 8-to-1
Los Angeles Clippers — 10-to-1
Boston — 15-to-1
New York — 20-to-1
Memphis — 20-to-1
Dallas — 20-to-1
Orlando — 40-to-1
Philadelphia — 50-to-1
Atlanta — 75-to-1
Denver — 100-to-1
Houston — 100-to-1
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LVH Sportsbook will post NFL Week 1 lines today
04.18.2012 07:37 AM
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According to Sportsbook Director Jay Kornegay, LVH will be posting sides, totals and moneylines for Week 1 NFL at some point today.
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MLB Handicapping: Washington's starting rotation thrives with the fastball
04.18.2012 07:32 AM
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Article on the Washington Nationals and they stellar starting rotation which is a combined 5-1 with a 1.69 ERA and .179 BA against. They've been getting the job done in large part by
committing to the fastball
. The group's average heater is 93.4 mph – the highest mark from a rotation since FanGraphs starting tracking the data in 2002. In 74.2 innings, the starting five has amassed 108 swinging strikes.
“Against these guys, it’s like you don’t get a chance to catch your breath,” Cincinnati Reds center fielder Drew Stubbs said. “You get done with one, it’s just on to the next one. We were here for four days. All four guys, and we missed Strasburg, can hit the mid-90s. That’s tough. It’s very rare. Usually, you only have one guy in the rotation who throws like that.”
“It does go along with my philosophy,” General Manager Mike Rizzo said. “The radar readings, per se, there’s no philosophy there.
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NHL Playoffs Adjusted Series Betting Prices
04.18.2012 06:54 AM
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Adjusted series prices for the first round of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs courtesy of The Greek.
NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Adjusted Series Prices 4/18/2012
Matchup (Series Leader)
Odds
Philadelphia Flyers (3-0)
 -1250
Pittsburgh Penguins  Â
 +850
Los Angeles Kings (3-0)
 -1100
Vancouver Canucks  Â
 +700
Ottawa Senators  Â
 +320
New York Rangers (2-1)
 -400
Washington Capitals  Â
 +350
Boston Bruins (2-1)
 -450
San Jose Sharks  Â
 +300
St Louis Blues (2-1)
 -360
Chicago Blackhawks  Â
 +165
Phoenix Coyotes (2-1)Â Â Â
 -185
New Jersey Devils  Â
 +125
Florida Panthers (2-1)Â Â Â
 -145
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NFL releases schedule, sportsbook hangs Week 1 lines
04.18.2012 06:26 AM
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The NFL released the
2012-13 regular season schedule
yesterday. Early reports indicate that the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants have the league's
most difficult schedule
(slow down ESPN pundits, it’s only April). Regardless, we're not worried about where the Detroit Lions play Week 8, we want to see some lines and BetOnline was kind enough to grant bettors that wish.
2012 NFL Week 1 Lines - BetOnline
Week 1 Matchup
Favorite
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
-3.5
Indianapolis Colts
Chicago Bears
-8.5
Jacksonville Jaguars
Minnesota Vikings
-3.5
Buffalo Bills
New York Jets
-5
Miami Dolphins
Houston Texans
-6
New England Patriots
-5
Tennessee Titans
St. Louis Rams
Detroit Lions
-7.5
Washington Redskins
New Orleans Saints
-6
Philadelphia Eagles
-6
Cleveland Browns
Atlanta Falcons
-1
Kansas City Chiefs
San Francisco 49ers
Green Bay Packers
-5
Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals
-1
Carolina Panthers
-1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens
-6
Pittsburgh Steelers
Denver Broncos
-1.5
San Diego Chargers
-2
Oakland Raiders
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Betting against the Minnesota Timberwolves in April is not a bad idea
04.18.2012 06:09 AM
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The last time the Minnesota Timberwolves won a game in April was back in 2009 (0-27 SU). The against-the-spread results during that span are also awful (7-20). These outcomes aren't that shocking considering that Aprils in the NBA are notorious for bringing out the best in "tank mode" from bottom-tier teams. This year's Minnesota squad however was looking to reverse that trend but a
brutal schedule
following the All-Star break and various injuries made it too difficult to overcome. The T-wolves play at Detroit tonight, host fellow "tanker" Golden State on Sunday, and close out the year vs. Denver.
Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Results April 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012
Date
Opponent
Score
Minnesota ATS
4/17/2012
Memphis
LÂ 84-91
Win +9.5
4/16/2012
at Indiana
LÂ 88-111
Loss +10.5
4/14/2012
Oklahoma City
LÂ 110-115
Win +11.5
4/12/2012
L.A. Clippers
LÂ 82-95
Loss +7.5
4/11/2012
at Denver
LÂ 107-113
Win+ 8
4/9/2012
Phoenix
LÂ 90-114
Loss +2.5
4/7/2012
at New Orleans
LÂ 90-99
Loss -3
4/4/2012
Golden State
LÂ 94-97
Loss -6
4/2/2012
at Sacramento
LÂ 108-116
Loss +3
4/1/2012
at Portland
LÂ 106-119
Loss +3.5
4/13/2011
Houston
LÂ 102-121
Loss +5.5
4/11/2011
at Phoenix
LÂ 127-135Â (OT)
Win +9
4/9/2011
at Denver
LÂ 106-130
Loss +13.5
4/6/2011
Phoenix
LÂ 98-108
Loss +4.5
4/5/2011
at New Jersey
LÂ 105-107
Win +5.5
4/2/2011
at Memphis
LÂ 89-106
Loss +14
4/1/2011
Miami
LÂ 92-111
Loss +11
4/14/2010
Detroit
LÂ 98-103
Loss -1
4/12/2010
at San Antonio
LÂ 111-133
Loss +14.5
4/11/2010
at New Orleans
LÂ 86-114
Loss +5.5
4/9/2010
L.A. Lakers
LÂ 88-97
Loss +7.5
4/7/2010
Golden State
LÂ 107-116
Loss +2
4/4/2010
at Oklahoma City
LÂ 108-116
Win +13.5
4/3/2010
Miami
LÂ 84-97
Loss +6.5
4/15/2009
Sacramento
LÂ 90-97
Loss -7.5
4/13/2009
at Dallas
LÂ 94-96
Win +11.5
4/11/2009
Phoenix
LÂ 97-110
Loss +2
Results
0-27
7-20
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April
17
MLB Handicapping: Bettors likely to maintain fade of Tim Lincecum
04.17.2012 02:07 PM
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UPDATE
FanGraphs
tries to make the case that Tim Lincecum's rough start to the season may only be temporary. They use previous seasons to indicate dramatic drops in velocity early on followed by eventual turnarounds. We've talked a lot of about velocity in these pages of late and Lincecum isn't the only one currently in decline (not to mention his BAbip is an ungodly .435). Perhaps it is a small nagging injury and coming from a guy who rarely misses starts (and reportedly doesn't ice his arm) admitting as such would be embarrassing. That or maybe he is just wearing down after reaching 1,000 innings in just five years. Either way, while many have righted the ship before him, betting on Lincecum at this point remains difficult.
MLB Gambling Update: Lincecum tries to bounce back after back-to-back
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Free MLB Betting Pick: Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox
04.17.2012 11:51 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Baltimore (Chen) +115 at Chicago (Danks) O/U 8
Recommendation: Baltimore
John Danks is a notoriously slow starter, with a history of miserable early season results. The numbers don’t lie. Last year, Chicago went 1-10 in Danks’ first 11 trips to the hill, and he had an ERA above 5.00 heading into June. His career splits show a 16-25 record for the first two months of the season, compared to seven games over .500 from June 1st onwards. He struggled in both starts against this Orioles lineup last year: ten runs and 15 hits allowed in just 12.1 innings of work. The White Sox bullpen behind him isn’t fresh, after short stints from Phil Humber and Chris Sale over the past two days. And Chicago’s lineup isn’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball with their bats, ranked 12th among 14 American League teams in runs scored this year while hitting just .237 as a team. While Chicago has lost two straight following its surprisingly hot start – coming back to earth – the Orioles remain alone in first place in the best division in baseball. They are in excellent current form,
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NFL Gambling News: New York Jets wisely focus on improving run game
04.17.2012 11:23 AM
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New York Jets guard Matt Slauson did his best to hype up next year's offense with quarterbacks
Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow
. According to Slauson, the team is set on returning to a "Ground and Pound" attack. In other words they don't want to rely on either quarterback's arm to win games. The Jets were 22nd in the league in rushing last year at 105.8 ypg after ranking first in 2009 (172.3 ypg) and fourth in 2010 (148.4 ypg).
"You guys will be really surprised by what Mark's going to do this year," Slauson said. "The way we're going to be running things plays right into Mark's strengths, running the ball. It'll be very similar to what we did in Rex's first two years, very much a style like that -- heavy run, heavy play action and whipping out a deep ball every now and again. That's all the stuff Mark does really well."
"There's no question about it. That's how we look at it, but we know that Tim can help us, too. There's no doubt. ... Mark is our starting quarterback," Ryan said
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NBA Handicapping: Allen returns vs. Knicks, Celtics eye Atlantic Division title
04.17.2012 11:08 AM
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Boston
at
New York
-3 O/U 183
The Celtics can clinch the Atlantic Division title tonight with a win over New York and a Philadelphia loss (vs. Indiana). Ray Allen is
expected to suit up
after missing four games with swelling in his ankle. Paul Pierce remains "questionable" with a toe injury. Boston has won and covered two of the three meetings this season.
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New York Knicks
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Sports Betting Podcast 4-17-2012 with Handicapper Teddy Covers
04.17.2012 09:33 AM
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Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy broke down tonight's MLB and NBA games from a betting perspective.
Today's segments
Teddy Covers - MLB and NBA Every Game on the Board
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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MLB
Teddy Covers
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Pay Per Head shops gain popularity among bookies and bettors
04.17.2012 08:22 AM
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Article in the
New York Times
about the popularity of Pay Per Head sportsbooks.
“There is always going to be a huge market for local bookmakers because they are the ones who let players bet with credit, with money they don’t have to produce,” Steve Budin, a gambling expert who formerly operated an online sports book, said. “People don’t want to give out their credit cards or send money offshore someplace. They like dealing with real people and real cash. These sites just make it a whole lot easier for the bookies serving them.”
“Younger bettors are used to ease and quality — they don’t want busy signals or guys who don’t answer their phone,” Budin said. “They want Web sites. They want a number they can trust where someone says, ‘How can I help you?’ if they have to call.”
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MLB Gambling Notes: Scout not impressed with Darvish, compares him to Dice-K
04.17.2012 08:13 AM
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UPDATE
One scout
has not been impressed
with Texas' Yu Darvish through two starts. Texas won both games but Darvish allowed 17 hits and eight walks in 11.1 innings. More importantly, he was a -235 home favorite and -155 road favorite – prices that are unlikely to change much given Texas' current place in the betting markets. Darvish is slated to start Friday in Detroit.
“He’s going to give up a ton of hits,” the scout said. “A lot of his fastballs are very straight. The guy is supposed to throw hard. But he basically pitched at 89 to 92, touching 93-94. That’s pretty good in Japan. It’s not very good here.
“He has a good cutter, a good curveball. But when he gets in trouble, he turns into a breaking-ball guy – nibble, nibble, he won’t let it go. He reminded me of
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British bookmaker William Hill runs into trouble gaining US gaming license
04.17.2012 08:04 AM
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UPDATE
British bookmaker William Hill has run into some difficulty attaining a
gaming license
in the United States. Rumor has it some of Hill's higher-ups were involved in past shady dealings that Nevada regulators are thoroughly investigating.
"We said that this process would take between 12 to 18 months and we believe that a decision will be made in that timeframe. We are fully complying with the whole process and have no further comment to make."
"I've been through licensing processes before but, I have to say, nothing as extensive as this. And it's not only at a corporate level that we're investigated and scrutinised, but at the personal level too. I haven't felt this closely assessed since I met my prospective father-in-law for the first time!!"
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Of course there is a website for hedging wedding gifts
04.17.2012 07:52 AM
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Going to wedding this summer that has little to no chance of working out? No worries thanks to a website that allows guests to
hedge on the purchase of wedding gifts
.
After buying a gift, guests simply register on the company's website, pay 8% of the gift's purchase price, and upload a copy of the receipt. If the marriage dissolves within three years, Wedding Gift Refund will reimburse the full price of the present.
For example, according to numbers compiled by The Wall Street Journal, Massachusetts has 1.8 divorces per thousand marriages, the lowest rate in the country, while Nevada has a staggering 6.6 divorces per thousand marriages. In other words, a Vegas marriage is nearly four times as likely to fail as a Boston one.
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Full Tilt Poker updating website, hiring customer service reps
04.17.2012 07:37 AM
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Appears to be some activity going on with Full Tilt Poker as reports are out that the website was up and running yesterday. According to
Poker News Report
, Full Tilt was testing out its latest version and is also hiring customer service reps.
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MLB Betting Notes: Boston's Bard shows signs of promise
04.17.2012 07:32 AM
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Boston's Daniel Bard is becoming an interesting case study after switching from the bullpen to starting rotation. Yesterday, Bard allowed one earned run in 6.2 innings against Tampa Bay but walked seven batters thanks to some
spotty command with the fastball
. He did however fan seven batters and had 13 swinging strikes. In his first start against Toronto he recorded an amazing 17 swinging strikes. Clearly, this kid has
legit stuff
even though it may take some time for him to put everything together.
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MLB Handicapping Update: Molina, umpire help key Tampa Bay win
04.17.2012 07:22 AM
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UPDATE
Yesterday, we posted a blog (see below) on the impact catchers can have in preventing runs. One of those highlighted was Tampa’s Jose Molina who has developed a reputation for being one of the better pitch framers in the game. Nowhere was this more apparent than during yesterday's infamous Cody Ross at-bat to end the game. Part of it may have had to do with umpire Larry Vanover but according to
FanGraphs
, Molina seemed aware of Vanover's tendencies and took advantage. That or Vanover had somewhere to be after the game.
MLB Handicapping Tips: The impact catchers have on preventing runs
04.16.2012 12:05 PM
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April
19
April
16
NFL by Rob Veno
NFL by Teddy Covers
NCAAF by Rob Veno
NCAAF by Teddy Covers
Accu-Stats
Accu-Stat Matchups
Schedule Sheet
Accu-Stat Gamelogs
NFL Team Pages
College Football Team Pages
MLB Team Pages
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