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Betting odds on who will win the 2012 NBA Lottery
05.02.2012 12:42 PM
Printer Friendly
The NBA Lottery will be selected May 30 followed by the actual draft on June 28. The lottery is weighted, giving more "chances" for the weaker teams to earn a higher draft spot. But despite the favorable odds, teams with the worst record have won the lottery only three times since 1990 – Orlando was the last team in 2004. If you like betting on events like these, The Greek posted odds on who will win the lottery. We broke down the moneyline, the odds percentage of the moneyline and actual percentage based on the NBA's sliding scale. Since Orlando's "win" in 2004, the following worst records have won the lottery: 6th-worst, 5th, 6th, 9th, 2nd, 5th and 8th.
2012 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
Team
Odds
Odds Pct.
Actual Pct.
Charlotte Bobcats
+175
36.3%
25.0%
Washington Wizards
+200
33.3%
19.9%
Cleveland Cavaliers
+500
16.7%
15.6%
New Orleans Hornets
+650
13.3%
11.9%
New Jersey Nets
+800
11.1%
8.8%
Sacramento Kings
+800
11.1%
6.3%
Golden State Warriors
+1500
6.3%
4.3%
Toronto Raptors
+1600
5.9%
2.8%
Detroit Pistons
+3000
3.2%
1.7%
New Orleans Hornets (via the LAC)
+4000
2.4%
1.1%
Portland Trailblazers
+5000
1.9%
0.8%
Milwaukee Bucks
+6000
1.6%
0.7%
Phoenix Suns
+7000
1.4%
0.6%
Houston Rockets
+10000
0.9%
0.5%
Draft Notes according to Wikipedia
1: New Jersey Nets' pick was conveyed to the Portland Trail Blazers although it is top 3 protected.
2: Golden State Warrior's pick is top 7 protected.
3: Minnesota Timberwolves' pick was conveyed to the New Orleans Hornets.
Tags:
NBA
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MLB Handicapping: Verlander's workload remains a non-issue
05.02.2012 11:37 AM
Printer Friendly
Article from
Sports Illustrated
on the amazingness of Justin Verlander. The innings continue to accumulate as do the high pitch counts but it doesn't seem to matter. It has been documented countless times that few if any work as hard not only during the offseason but in between starts which is where a lot of guys fail late in the season. Perhaps Verlander's biggest strength is his ability to pace himself throughout a game. The first few innings you'll commonly see his "batting practice" fastball (low 90s) rather than the 99 he hits in the 8th. Bettors won't get rich supporting Verlander and his big price tags but it’s a much better option than betting against him – he's working on a fourth straight profitable season.
"Research has shown that fatigue is a critical signal to stop pitching," Fleisig said. "If a pitcher is pitching as hard or harder at the end of the game and if he does not alter his mechanics and doesn't feel fatigued, then I don't think he's at any increased risk of injury. But
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Detroit Tigers
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Free MLB Betting Pick: Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
05.02.2012 10:01 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Baltimore
(Arrieta) at
NY Yankees
(Nova) -170 O/U 9.5
Recommendation: Over
Baltimore’s lineup is suddenly surging, pounding out 23 runs in their last four games. The Orioles hit Ivan Nova hard, notching ten hits against him when they faced him last month. Nova has suffered from a reverse home/road dichotomy, with a career ERA more than a full run higher when pitching in the Bronx. He was lit up by the Tigers in his last outing: 14 baserunners and six earned runs in just 5.1 innings of work. There’s absolutely no reason to expect a dramatic improvement here, and Joe Girardi’s bullpen behind him is not in great shape following yesterday’s early exit from Phil Hughes.
Nova has a strong winning record (20-6) throughout his tenure as a Yankee for one reason and one reason only – loads of run support. The numbers don’t lie: in Nova’s last 20 starts dating back to last year, the Bronx Bombers have lived up to
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Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
Teddy Covers
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Sports Betting Podcast 5-2-2012 with Handicapper Erin Rynning
05.02.2012 09:58 AM
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Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Erin Rynning. Erin broke down tonight's NBA Playoff games and the MLB card from a betting perspective.
Today's segments
Erin Rynning - MLB and NBA Every Game on the Board
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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NBA
Erin Rynning
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MLB Gambling News: Cleveland's Ubaldo Jimenez continues to falter
05.02.2012 08:38 AM
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Article from
FanGraphs
on the decline of Ubaldo Jimenez. He was pounded around for 8 hits and 4 runs in 4.2 innings last night against Chicago. His velocity and swinging strikes have dropped dramatically over the past two seasons. From a betting perspective, he's down nearly -14 units since 2011.
Quite succinctly, Ubaldo Jimenez is a mess. His fastball velocity continues to plummet, his swinging strike rate has followed suit, and opposing hitters are forcing him to throw strikes by not swinging at as many pitches out of the strike zone. That has resulted in a 6.32 FIP through the month of April.
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Cleveland Indians
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NBA Handicapping: Bettors banking on bounceback effort from Memphis Grizzlies
05.02.2012 07:54 AM
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LA Clippers
at
Memphis
-6.5 O/U 185
The Memphis Grizzlies have seen a majority of the betting action for
tonight's Game 2
against the Los Angeles Clippers. Memphis opened as a 5-point favorite but is currently -6.5 with Greek showing -7 (-105).
"I said before the game (Sunday) that I thought (the Clippers) were the favorites. They should have had home court," Hollins said. "They didn't because of Chris Paul not playing in the last (regular-season) game. I never thought that these two teams were going to be in 20-point wins or losses. It's going to be a close, hotly contested series."
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Memphis Grizzlies
Los Angeles Clippers
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NBA Handicapping: Loss drops Chicago Bulls to -170 series favorite
05.02.2012 07:36 AM
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Heading into Tuesday's home game against Philadelphia, the Chicago Bulls had a 1-0 series lead and were around -600 to win the series according to CRIS's adjusted odds. Following
last night's loss
, CRIS readjusted the series odds to -200 with immediate action on Philadelphia. The current price is now Chicago -170/Philly +150. The 76ers are a 2-point home favorite for Friday’s Game 3.
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Chicago Bulls
Philadelphia 76ers
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NBA Betting Trends: Knicks 14-5 ATS without Stoudemire during regular season
05.02.2012 07:20 AM
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Miami
-4.5 at
New York
O/U 186.5
During the regular season, the New York Knicks didn't miss a beat without Amar'e Stoudemire in the lineup, going 14-5 straight up and against the spread.
New York Knicks Betting Results Without Amare Stoudemire
Date
Opponent
Score
Knicks ATS
Totals
4/18
at NJ
Win 104-95
Win -8
Over 193.5
4/17
BOS
Win 118-110
Win -3.5
Over 182.5
4/15
MIA
Loss 85-93
Loss +3
Under 189
4/13
WAS
Win 103-65
Win -10.5
Under 197.5
4/11
at MIL
Win 111-107
Win +4.5
Over 202
4/10
at CHI
Loss 86-98
Loss +7
Under 187
4/8
CHI
Win 100-99 (OT)
Win +3
Over 185
4/5
at ORL
Win 96-80
Win +3
Under 188.5
4/3
at IND
Loss 104-112
Loss +5.5
Over 192
3/31
CLE
Win 91-75
Win -11
Under 191.5
3/30
at ATL
Loss 90-100
Loss +3
Over 186.5
3/28
ORL
Win 108-86
Win +1.5
Over 190
3/26
MIL
Win 89-80
Win -4.5
Under 206
2/11
at MIN
Win 100-98
Win +6.5
Over 197.5
2/10
LAL
Win 92-85
Win +4.5
Under 185
2/8
at WAS
Win 107-93
Win +1.5
Over 192
2/6
UTA
Win 99-88
Win -3
Under 195.5
1/2
TOR
Loss 85-90
Loss -8.5
Under 200
12/31
at SAC
Win 114-92
Win -1
Over 199.5
Results
14-5 SU
14-5 ATS
10-9 O/U
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New York Knicks
Miami Heat
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Mayweather denies Clippers bet but wanted to get down on Celtics-Hawks second half
05.02.2012 06:43 AM
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Never a dull moment in the life of Floyd Mayweather. This time, rumors are circulating that Mayweather had
$1.8 million
spread out over seven Las Vegas sportsbooks on the Clippers +6 – the game they trailed by as much as 27 and won outright. But in Tuesday's press conference for his weekend bout with Miguel Cotto, the often times braggadocios Mayweather said the
big bet claims were false
. Later in the interview however, and true to form, he did tell reporters he wanted to bet the second half of the Celtics-Hawks game. Mayweather is a -700 favorite over Cotto for Saturday.
"I've won a lot of money on games, I've lost a good piece of money on games," Mayweather told MLive.com's David Mayo in March. "But at the end of the day, some of the games that they're talking about are rumors they put out there, that are false. In sports, you win and you lose, but the main thing is you have to win more than you
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MLB Gambling Notes: League batting average dips below .250
05.02.2012 06:19 AM
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Article on the overall
decline of hitting
across the board in Major League Baseball. The league batting average is now .249 – the lowest mark since 1972. And six teams currently sport ERA's below 3.00. Totals entering today were going under at a 53% clip.
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May
1
Deadspin tries to uncover truth behind bettor/columnist Sarah Phillips
05.01.2012 02:37 PM
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We don't even know where to begin with this one but kudos to
Deadspin
for trying to tackle it. Some of you have probably heard of Sarah Phillips, a young 20-something female hardcore sports bettor (because there are a ton of them out there these days) who went from Covers.com posting forum member, to featured columnist, to snagging a gig with ESPN's Page 2 within the span of about a year. If you bet on a daily basis and
read her stuff
, it is obviously scripted in some manner. She'll go from sounding like a college chick who likes flavored vodka to an Andrew Lange-Brent Crow Sportsmemo Podcast conversation about a mid-week Sun Belt college basketball total – no one is THAT talented. Anyway, Phillips' online presence started to draw the attention of some folks and well, we'll let you soak in the rest...
A few days later, Phillips asked Matt for his advice on a Cardinals-Brewers game. The over/under for the game was 7.5 runs. Matt told her to take the
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Bettor claims to have hit two live wagering moneyline bets on the Clippers
05.01.2012 01:40 PM
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We'll let you guys decided whether or not this is real. We mentioned in
Monday's blog
that Pinnacle (which everyone copies when it comes to live odds) didn't even bother posting a moneyline when the Clippers-Grizzlies game got out of hand in the third quarter. Here is a bettor who claims to have gotten not one but
two live bets
down at +55555. Note that he got in one bet, the Clippers hit a three, and he proceeded to place another bet at the exact same price (huh?). Even if this isn't a hoax, good luck getting that payout from your agent dude!
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NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
Memphis Grizzlies
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Oddsmaker shares his thoughts on College Football O/U wins
05.01.2012 01:15 PM
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Caesars sportsbook director
Todd Fuhrman
explains the science behind putting out a College Football Regular Season Over/Under Wins number.
Every bookmaker handle’s this process differently but for my purposes I try to rate each game 0 to 10 with a 10 meaning a virtual lock and 0 implying it will take a Stanford over USC type upset to grab the win. At the end of the process, I’ll add up my total and attach appropriate juice based on intangibles, public perception, and overall gut feel.
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UFC's Dana White gung-ho about sportsbooks offering betting lines
05.01.2012 11:20 AM
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UFC President Dana White has no problem with sportsbooks offering
betting lines
on his sport – in fact, he welcomes it and often posts the lines for TUF Live fights on his Twitter page. A few in the media (particularly Las Vegas Sun columnist
J. Patrick Coolican
) called him on it, saying that is discredits a sports still striving for legitimacy. White of course was having none of it and said that by sportsbooks offering wagering opportunities on fights, it only
adds
to its legitimacy.
"One of the things I love – which I think is bad ass – MGM, Mirage, The Venetian, the Las Vegas Hotel, Palms and a lot of other casino are doing this thing where they're having 'The Ultimate Fighter' inside the sportsbooks," White said. "So you go in, and you watch the reality (show), and then you go up and make your bet before the fight starts. They're all doing
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MLB Betting Preview: New York Mets at Houston Astros
05.01.2012 10:54 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
NY Mets
(Niese) -130 at
Houston
(Happ) O/U 8
Recommendation: New York
Houston took Game 1 of this series last night, turning five hits and two walks into four runs thanks to some solid clutch hitting. Don’t expect an Astros lineup that has produced three runs or less in half of their ten home games so far this season to have much success tonight against under-rated Mets hurler Jonathan Niese. The Astros are just 1-4 against lefties in five tries in 2012, hitting just .227 as a team against southpaws.
Niese has thrown four consecutive quality starts to open up the new campaign. He dominated the Astros on his last visit to Houston, throwing seven innings of one run ball. It was the exact same story in his previous start here at Minute Maid Park: seven innings of one run ball. The Mets were huge profit makers on the highway last year, earning an MLB best 17.6 units of profit for their 81 road games. And when we look at the profitability
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New York Mets
Houston Astros
Teddy Covers
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MLB Gambling Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals
05.01.2012 10:49 AM
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Submitted by
Arizona
(Cahill) +135 at
Washington
(Zimmermann) O/U 6.5
Recommendation: Arizona
The Washington Nationals (14-8) return home from a six-game road trip losers of four straight. The Nats still hold a slim lead in the NL East, but laying this price with a struggling offense can be risky. The Nationals scoring struggles are evident with 0, 3, 2, and 1 runs their last four games while hitting just .180. Over their last 11 games, the Nationals have averaged just 2.63 runs per game.
Don’t expect much offense from the Nationals against Arizona’s Trevor Cahill. Following two seasons of success pitching for Oakland, the big right-hander is pitching well with a .221 BAA that includes a pair of solid performances on the road. Cahill shut down both San Diego and Colorado in two road starts allowing just two runs and six hits in 13 innings. He has a solid ground ball profile and throwing at pitcher-friendly Nationals Park against a struggling lineup should serve him well again.
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Sports Betting Podcast 5-1-2012 with Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning
05.01.2012 10:04 AM
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Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning. Teddy broke down tonight's NBA Playoff games while Erin took care of the MLB card from a betting perspective.
Today's segments
Teddy Covers - NBA Every Game on the Board
Erin Rynning - MLB Every Game on the Board
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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MLB
Teddy Covers
Erin Rynning
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Bookie finds happiness flying under the radar in the U.S.
05.01.2012 08:06 AM
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An anonymous bookie talks about how he's found a
comfort zone
living in America and doing business the old school way.
Life is too short. So I’m onshore and offline. Any trouble I’m going to get from the Law is going to be local. If caught, I’ll spend some time doing graffiti removal or cleaning up a park. I’ll sleep in my own bed.
I don’t need 16 hours a day in front of a computer screen trying to move my numbers faster than internet wiseguys can pick me off. I don’t need to try to figure out Costa Rica’s ever changing tax code. (When I left, sports books were charged, among other things, $1000 per computer monitor on the premises, per year.) I don’t need to court the DOJ’s wrath.
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Poker legend Amarillo Slim dies at 83
05.01.2012 07:53 AM
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Poker legend Thomas "Amarillo Slim" Preston
passed away
at the age of 83 on Sunday. He won the World Series of Poker main event in 1972 and was also noted for having played against Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Pablo Escobar, and Larry Flynt.
“Slim used his name and face to promote poker in a way it had never been done before, and without Amarillo Slim, the poker world would likely not exist in the way we know it today,” Poker Player News said in its obituary.
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NBA Playoff Gambling: New York Knicks haven't won a postseason game since 2001
05.01.2012 07:44 AM
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Last night's loss to Miami marked the 12th straight postseason defeat for the New York Knicks dating back to 2001. In their defense, they were only favored twice during that stretch. They'll be an underdog again on Thursday after opening +5.5 vs. Miami.
New York Knicks Playoff Betting Results 2001-present
Date
Opponent
Score
Round
NY ATS
4/30/2012
at Miami
L 94-104
Quarterfinals
Loss +9.5
4/28/2012
at Miami
L 67-100
Quarterfinals
Loss +9
4/24/2011
Boston
L 89-101
Quarterfinals
Loss +3.5
4/22/2011
Boston
L 96-113
Quarterfinals
Loss -3.5
4/19/2011
at Boston
L 93-96
Quarterfinals
Win +6.5
4/17/2011
at Boston
L 85-87
Quarterfinals
Win +6
4/25/2004
New Jersey
L 94-100
Quarterfinals
Push +6
4/22/2004
New Jersey
L 78-81
Quarterfinals
Win +4
4/20/2004
at New Jersey
L 81-99
Quarterfinals
Loss +9
4/17/2004
at New Jersey
L 83-107
Quarterfinals
Loss +7.5
5/4/2001
Toronto
L 89-93
Quarterfinals
Loss -4
5/2/2001
at Toronto
L 93-100
Quarterfinals
Loss +4.5
Results
0-12 SU
3-8-1 ATS
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New York Knicks
Miami Heat
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NBA Handicapping: Karl calls out Lakers for playing illegal defense
05.01.2012 07:23 AM
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Denver
at
LA Lakers
-5 O/U 200.5
After being held to 36% shooting and 88 points, Denver head coach George Karl was quick to note that the Lakers played plenty
illegal defense
in Game 1's blowout loss. Perhaps some frustration after his team had 15 of their shots blocked, including 10 courtesy of Andrew Bynum.
"He was playing nice illegal defense," Karl told reporters, including the Denver Post's Benjamin Hochman. "He was zoned up good. I think we got one illegal defense [call] — I saw about 30."
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MLB Handicapping: Pittsburgh's Morton shows improvement vs. lefties
05.01.2012 07:14 AM
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Pittsburgh
(Morton) at
St. Louis
(Wainwright) -180 O/U 7
The book on Pittsburgh's Charlie Morton has always been that he can't get lefties out. Last season, they hit .364 BA/.806 OPS against the righty. The year before that; .329 BA/.840 OPS. This year, though the sample is small (48 batters faced), Morton has
dramatically improved his numbers
(.227 BA/.582 OPS). According to this article, Morton made some pitch selection adjustments that have helped. Also note Morton's solid groundball-to-fly ball ratio (39-10). Expect tonight's opponent St. Louis to have at least five lefties in the lineup.
"He's starting to do all of it a little better," Hurdle said. "Even though it's a small sample size, we're looking for improvement. He's looking for improvement. He's gotten some."
"To me, it's kind of like
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Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
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Free MLB Betting Pick: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
05.01.2012 06:48 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Philadelphia
(Hamels) at
Atlanta
(Beachy) -125 O/U 6.5
Recommendation: Under
Last season, Atlanta's offense struggled mightedly against left-handed pitching and those numbers are starting to show up again (.238 vs. LH starters) this season despite the fact that they have yet to face a premium southpaw arm. And when it comes to "premium" in the National League names like Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, and tonight's opponent, Cole Hamels, come to mind. Hamels is once again dialed in this season with a 2.73 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. For Atlanta, Brandon Beachy will look to maintain his stellar start to the season (1.05 ERA, 0.97 WHIP). Obviously those numbers can't be maintained, but his talent is hardly a fluke after posting 169 strikeouts in 141.2 innings last season. He'll face a Philadelphia offense that has really struggled to produce runs. They've picked it up of late (4.71 runs per game last 7 games) but they certainly benefited from facing some weak starting pitchers (Josh
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Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
Andrew Lange
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May
3
April
30
NFL by Rob Veno
NFL by Teddy Covers
NCAAF by Rob Veno
NCAAF by Teddy Covers
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