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Today's sports betting history lesson
05.17.2012 12:35 PM
Printer Friendly
We posted a story on the
history of the pointspread
last year. Considering there isn't but a handful of days per year where it isn't on our brains, it deserves another mention. Here, a Chicago columnist uses it as a reason to make
sports betting legal in Illinois
. Sounds good to us.
Charles K. McNeil was a history major at the University of Chicago, but his real talent was with numbers. After graduating, McNeil taught math at a New England prep school, then returned to Chicago to work as a securities analyst at a bank. To supplement his small income, McNeil bet on baseball, basketball and football games, first with friends in the stands, then with bookies. McNeil was such a shrewd bettor that he was able to quit his bank job and live on his winnings. But he was a little too shrewd for his own good: he beat the house so often that his bookie put limits on his action.
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Free MLB Betting Pick: New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
05.17.2012 12:04 PM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
NY Yankees
(Hughes) -115 at
Toronto
(Hutchison) O/U 9.5
Recommendation: New York
Phil Hughes' shortcoming have been so heavily publicized that despite playing for the Yankees, there would inevitably some betting value on him if and when things turned around. My enthusiasm for him remains tepid but there have been positives. On the season, Hughes has decent numbers (40 hits allowed in 36 innings with 34 strikeouts and only nine walks). The problem has been staying away from the home run ball (9). The velocity has been there and so long as he believes in his stuff (he should after back-to-back quality starts) Hughes has some upside. For the Blue Jays, rookie Drew Hutchison hasn’t shown much (5.53 ERA, 1.52 WHIP). He has struggled with his command, fallen behind in a lot of counts and been forced to throw fastballs 77% of the time. The Yankees are aging, but they still work counts, take walks, and tend to feast of mediocre pitching. Looks like a decent spot for a play on the small
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Tags:
MLB
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
Andrew Lange
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NFL Offseason Betting Notes: New York Jets want to use 46 defense
05.17.2012 11:36 AM
Printer Friendly
The New York Jets say they will utilize the
"46" defense
this year. After ranking 1st in scoring defense in 2009 (14.8 ppg allowed), the Jets dropped to 20th (22.7) last season.
"We're going to play a lot of that 46 defense," Dunbar said on Wednesday. "You get in that 46 defense, you’re going to get a lot of one-on-one blocks, and when we put athletic guys on the field, bad things happen for the offense."
Tags:
NFL
New York Jets
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NBA Handicapping: Wounded Clippers prep for Game 2
05.17.2012 10:02 AM
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LA Clippers
at
San Antonio
-10.5 O/U 194
A closer look at the Los Angeles Clippers'
injury situation
heading into tonight's Game 2 at San Antonio. Chris Paul (hip) and Blake Griffin (knee) are obviously banged up. Caron Butler is playing with a fractured right hand. Mo Williams has a bum hand as well. And Nick Young just had a root canal.
"I feel better in the beginning," Griffin said. "And I've just got to do a better job of managing that so I have more left in the fourth, the third, the second half, really. I tried a new brace last night and it felt a little better. I'll keep doing those things and try to find any little thing that will help."
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Los Angeles Clippers
San Antonio Spurs
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MLB Gambling News: Breaking down Adam Wainwright's numbers
05.17.2012 09:48 AM
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A good breakdown of
St. Louis' Adam Wainwright
. On the surface, Wainwright's numbers (6.16 ERA, 4.32 FIP) aren't very good. But there are a few indicators that show he has been unlucky. Wainwright is a +110 underdog at San Francisco this afternoon.
According to the fielding-independent metrics of FIP and xFIP, Wainwright has been unlucky this season to varying degrees. His ERA-FIP difference of 1.84 was the eighth-lowest in baseball entering play on Sunday. This is likely due to the fact that Wainwright is striking batters out a career-high rate of 9.24 per nine innings, has a BABIP of 3.52 that is 62 points above his career average, and has a 66.4 LOB% that is ten points below his career average and 6.7% below the 2012 league average.
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St. Louis Cardinals
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MLB Betting Trends: Getaway day game totals
05.17.2012 09:42 AM
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Thanks to Marty Otto for passing along this fairly strong MLB betting trend. Getaway day games directly following an extra inning night game go UNDER the total at about a 54% clip (over 280 play sample). This season is 3-6 O/U. This afternoon's Baltimore-Kansas City game qualifies.
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Marty Otto
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Sports Betting Podcast 5-17-2012 with Handicapper Teddy Covers
05.17.2012 09:35 AM
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Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy broke down the MLB card and the NBA Playoffs from a betting perspective.
Today's segments
Teddy Covers - MLB Every Game on the Board and NBA Playoffs
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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NBA
Teddy Covers
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MLB Betting Notes: Minnesota's starting pitching has been historically bad
05.17.2012 07:32 AM
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The Minnesota Twins have started eight different pitchers this season: Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn, Francisco Liriano, Jason Marquis, Liam Hendriks, Anthony Swarzak, Scott Diamond and PJ Walters. Their combined numbers are:
203.2 innings, 146 earned runs, 6.45 ERA, 250 hits, 38 home runs, 66 walks and 118 strikeouts
. Walters is a +195 underdog at Detroit today.
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Minnesota Twins
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Must have been a slow news day at FOX 25 Boston
05.17.2012 07:14 AM
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This may be the dumbest/funniest news report of all-time. Things to look for include multiple over-the-top Boston accents, a reference to The Godfather, and the obligatory “no comment.” We couldn’t embed the video so
here's a link
. Enjoy.
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Introducing the next network TV show with a Vegas theme
05.17.2012 07:09 AM
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This looks an awful lot like FX's Justified expect it’s on CBS, stars Dennis Quaid, and is a +1350 underdog to be renewed for a second season.
CBS’s description: Dennis Quaid and Michael Chiklis star in VEGAS, a drama inspired by the true story of former Las Vegas Sheriff Ralph Lamb, a fourth-generation rancher tasked with bringing order to Las Vegas in the 1960s, a gambling and entertainment mecca emerging from the tumbleweeds.
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NBA Playoff betting profiles that produce profit
05.17.2012 06:57 AM
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Submitted by
We’re off a pair of NBA winners Tuesday and back in action with two more NBA plays for tonight including another top-rated 20* Big Drive. This play fits a proven, profitable situation for success and we expect another top-play winner in NBA action and more of the same on Friday.
As noted in a
recent blog
, Round 2 home favorites have been the biggest profit producers in any round of NBA playoff action, and home favorites of 5 or more points have hit over 70% the past 30+ situations including the Spurs Game 1 win over the LA Clippers.
The LA Clippers will have a tough time bouncing back with a victory in Game 2 as the
injuries
and soreness surrounding the Clippers Blake Griffin (knee, ankle), Chris Paul (hip), Caron Butler (broken hand), Mo Williams (hand) and Nick Young (tooth) have them playing at less than 100% health against the Spurs. Normally I would support the Clippers in this situation as they fit a
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__
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May
16
Illinois interested in online poker
05.16.2012 02:12 PM
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Reports have surfaced that the State of Illinois wants to join the
online poker race
. Here is a quote from Senate President John Cullerton:
“Certain forms of iGaming, especially poker, rely on large pools of potential players, and states that move swiftly to design a system that captures the widest audience of participants will have an advantage in terms of long-range success,” Cullerton wrote. “The goal is to make the state nimble enough to adjust to new Internet gambling approaches.”
Here is what Cullerton meant to say: "Everyone here is pretty much aware than our state is
on the verge of a financial disaster
. And that is with us
taxing the crap out of everything
. Why don't we get a leg up on this online poker thing
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MLB Free Betting Play: Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets
05.16.2012 12:12 PM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Cincinnati
(Leake) at
NY Mets
(Santana) -135 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: New York
Cincinnati’s Mike Leake got off to a rough start last year, with an ERA over 5.00 through April and May. We’re seeing more of the same in 2012 with Leake still winless through his first six outings. Leake’s strikeouts are down – only 16 K’s in 31.2 innings. His walks are up. Opponents are hitting .313 against him, compared to .250 for the full season last year. The Nationals battered Leake for six runs in three innings in his last start, and he’s thrown only one quality start in his last five trips to the hill.
Leake’s numbers stand in sharp contrast with Johan Santana’s current form. Since getting lit up by Atlanta back on April 17th, Santana has thrown four consecutive quality starts, striking out 28 batters while allowing only 20 hits and seven runs in the
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Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets
Teddy Covers
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NCAA Basketball Gambling: Coaching changes for 2012-13 season
05.16.2012 12:07 PM
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A list of college basketball coach changes for the upcoming 2012-13 season.
2012-13 College Basketball Coaching Changes
School
New Coach
Last Job
Air Force
Dave Pilipovich
Asst. Air Force
Canisius
Jim Baron
HC Rhode Island
Central Michigan
Keno Davis
HC Providence
Charleston
Doug Wojcik
HC Tulsa
Colorado State
Larry Eustachy
HC Southern Miss
Duquesne
Jim Ferry
HC LIU-Brooklyn
Eastern Illinois
Jay Spoonhour
HC Moberly JC
Florida Intl'
Richard Pitino
Asst. Louisville
Idaho State
Bill Evans
Asst. Montana
Illinois
John Groce
HC Ohio
Illinois State
Bill Muller
Asst. Vanderbilt
Kansas State
Bruce Weber
HC Illinois
LSU
Johnny Jones
HC North Texas
Miami (OH)
John Cooper
HC Tennessee State
Mississippi State
Rick Ray
Asst. Clemson
Morehead State
Sean Woods
HC Mississippi Valley
Nebraska
Tim Miles
HC Colorado State
North Texas
Tony Benford
Asst. Marquette
Northern Arizona
Jack Murphy
Asst. Memphis
Ohio
Jim Christian
HC TCU
Rhose Island
Dan Hurley
HC Wagner
Samford
Bennie Seltzer
Asst. Indiana
SMU
Larry Brown
HC Bobcats
South Carolina
Frank Martin
HC Kansas State
Southern Miss
Donnie Tyndall
HC Morehead State
Southern Utah
Nick Robinson
Asst. LSU
TCU
Trent Johnson
HC LSU
Tennessee State
Travis Williams
Asst. Tennessee State
Tulsa
Danny Manning
Asst. Kansas
UAB
Jerod Haase
Asst. North Carolina
UNC-Greensboro
Wes Miller
Asst. UNC-Greensboro
Virginia Tech
James Johnson
Asst. Clemson
Western Kentucky
Ray Harper
Asst. Western Kentucky
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MLB Handicapping: Team-by-Team Interleague Schedules
05.16.2012 11:47 AM
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This year's team-by-team Interleague schedules. Play starts Friday.
2012 MLB Interleague Team-by-Team Schedule
AL East
Interleague Opponents
Baltimore
at Atlanta, at New York, vs. Philadelphia, vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Washington, at Washington
Boston
vs. Atlanta, at Chicago, vs. Miami, at Miami, at Philadelphia, vs. Washington
New York
vs. Atlanta, at Atlanta, vs. Cincinnati, vs. New York, at New York, at Washington
Tampa Bay
vs. Atlanta, at Miami, vs, Miami, vs. New York, at Philadelphia, at Washington
Toronto
at Atlanta, at Miami, at Milwaukee, vs. New York, vs. Philadelphia, vs. Washington
AL Central
Interleague Opponents
Chicago
vs. Chicago, at Chicago, vs. Houston, at Los Angeles, vs. Milwaukee, at St. Louis
Cleveland
vs. Cincinnati, at Cincinnati, at Houston, vs. Miami, vs. Pittsburgh, at St. Louis
Detroit
at Chicago, at Cincinnati, vs. Colorado, vs. Pittsburgh, at Pittsburgh, vs. St. Louis
Kansas City
vs. Arizona, at Houston, vs. Milwaukee, at Pittsburgh, vs. St. Louis, at St. Louis
Minnesota
vs. Chicago, at Cincinnati, vs. Milwaukee, at Milwaukee, vs. Philadelphia, at Pittsburgh
AL West
Interleague Opponents
Los Angeles
vs. Arizona, at Colorado, vs. Los Angeles, at Los Angeles, at San Diego, vs. San Francisco
Oakland
at Arizona, at Colorado, vs. Los Angeles, vs. San Diego, vs. San Francisco, at San Francisco
Seattle
at Arizona, at Colorado, vs. Los Angeles, vs. San Diego, at San Diego, vs. San Francisco
Texas
vs. Arizona, vs. Colorado, vs. Houston, at Houston, at San Diego, at San Francisco
NL East
Interleague Opponents
Atlanta
vs. Baltimore, at Boston, vs. New York, at New York, at Tampa Bay, vs. Toronto
Miami
vs. Boston, at Boston, at Cleveland, vs. Tampa Bay, at Tampa Bay, vs. Toronto
New York
vs. Baltimore, vs. New York, at New York, at Tampa Bay, at Toronto
Philadelphia
at Baltimore, vs. Boston, at Minnesota, vs. Tampa Bay, at Toronto
Washington
vs. Baltimore, at Baltimore, at Boston, vs. New York, vs. Tampa Bay, at Toronto
NL Central
Interleague Opponents
Chicago
vs. Boston, vs. Chicago, at Chicago, vs. Detroit, at Minnesota
Cincinnati
vs. Cleveland, at Cleveland, vs. Detroit, vs. Minnesota, at New York
Houston
at Chicago, vs. Cleveland, vs. Kansas City, vs. Texas, at Texas
Milwaukee
at Chicago, at Kansas City, vs. Minnesota, at Minnesota, vs. Toronto
Pittsburgh
at Baltimore, at Cleveland, vs. Detroit, at Detroit, vs. Kansas City, vs. Minnesota
St. Louis
vs. Chicago, vs. Cleveland, at Detroit, vs. Kansas City, at Kansas City
NL West
Interleague Opponents
Arizona
at Kansas City, at Los Angeles, vs. Oakland, vs. Seattle, at Texas
Colorado
at Detroit, vs. Los Angeles, vs. Oakland, vs. Seattle, at Texas
Los Angeles
vs. Chicago, vs. Los Angeles, at Los Angeles, at Oakland, at Seattle
San Diego
vs. Los Angeles, at Oakland, vs. Seattle, at Seattle, vs. Texas
San Francisco
at Los Angeles, vs. Oakland, at Oakland, at Seattle, vs. Texas
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Meet the guy who is really good at fixing soccer matches
05.16.2012 11:24 AM
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ESPN the Magazine
article on soccer's most notorious match fixer, Wilson Raj Perumal.
One week later, Chris Eaton, FIFA's head of security, arrived in Rovaniemi. He knew exactly who Perumal was. Eaton informed Finnish investigators that they had just caught the world's most prolific criminal fixer of soccer matches, an elusive figure whom Eaton had been chasing for the past six months.
A handsome, charismatic former petty criminal and runner for the syndicate, Perumal found his calling as a globe-trotting fixer. He didn't have to look hard for targets: Take 10,000 teams and multiply by the number of players per squad -- then add referees, club officials and federation administrators. To a skilled fixer, almost anyone could be had for the right price.
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MLB Betting News and Notes: Boston (Buchholz) at Tampa Bay (Hellickson)
05.16.2012 11:15 AM
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Boston
(Buchholz) at
Tampa Bay
(Hellickson) -140 O/U 8.5
Nice breakdown from
ESPN Stats & Info
on tonight's Boston-Tampa Bay matchup. Clay Buchholz threw his first quality start of the season last time out (6.1 IP, 3 ERs vs. Cleveland) but failed to record a strikeout. He's allowed 36 earned runs and 10 home runs with a dismal 22-20 K-to-BB ratio. Yet despite being arguably the worst starter in baseball (statistically), the Red Sox are 4-3 in his starts. Hellickson remains an interesting study. His generic numbers are strong (2.95 ERA, .227 BAA) but there are some potential red flags (88.5% LOB, .228 BABIP, 5.16 FIP).
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Sports Betting Podcast 5-16-2012 with Handicapper Rob Veno
05.16.2012 09:34 AM
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Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Rob Veno. Rob broke down the MLB card and the NBA Playoffs from a betting perspective.
Today's segments
Rob Veno - MLB Every Game on the Board and NBA Playoffs
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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NBA
Rob Veno
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NHL Betting Notes: Check out the price tag on the Los Angeles Kings
05.16.2012 08:19 AM
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Even if you aren't a hockey fan, you have to be impressed by which the way the Los Angeles Kings have rolled through the Stanley Cup Playoffs. And they aren't just slipping by either – six straight wins by two goals or more. All this after entering the playoffs as the eighth seed. We've seen oddsmakers make slight adjustments with the Kings short road favorites the first two games of the Western Conference Finals vs. Phoenix. But the price tag is about to get really steep with LA a -200 home favorite for Thursday's Game 3. The Kings were a -200 favorite just twice during the regular season.
Los Angeles Kings Playoff Betting Results as of 5/16
Date
Opponent
Score
Moneyline
5/17
vs. Phoenix
???
-200
5/15
at Phoenix
Win 4-0
Win -110
5/13
at Phoenix
Win 4-2
Win -110
5/6
St. Louis
Win 3-1
Win -125
5/3
St. Louis
Win 4-2
Win -115
4/30
at St. Louis
Win 5-2
Win +140
4/28
at St. Louis
Win 3-1
Win +140
4/22
at Vancouver
Win 2-1 (OT)
Win +145
4/18
Vancouver
Loss 1-3
Loss +100
4/15
Vancouver
Win 1-0
Win -115
4/13
at Vancouver
Win 4-2
Win +140
4/11
at Vancouver
Win 4-2
Win +140
Results
10-1
+11.05 units
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Pete Rose signed on for speaking engagement at Indiana casino
05.16.2012 07:57 AM
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No one ever accused Pete Rose of not working hard. The Hit King is making a guest appearance at of all places, an
Indiana casino
this weekend. Rose will be rehashing his career as a baseball player.
"It’s me telling stories about how I got started playing ball, the impact my father had on me as an athlete, signing with the Reds and right on through the breaking of the (all-time) hit record," Rose told the newspaper.
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MLB Betting News: Tampa likely to call up Cobb to replace Niemann
05.16.2012 07:30 AM
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With Jeff Niemann on the DL with a broken ankle, the Tampa Bay Rays are expected to make some changes to their starting rotation. The team doesn't have to decide on who will replace Niemann until this weekend though early indications suggest that we'll see
righty Alex Cobb
who pitched well as a rookie last season (3-2, 3.42 ERA). Chris Archer is another potential candidate.
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MLB Gambling Notes: Numbers suggest Cleveland has been fortunate
05.16.2012 07:23 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
On May 23 of last year, the Cleveland Indians had a seven game lead (30-15) in the American League Central but finished 15 games out. Most bettors knew some sort of decline was inevitable but perhaps not that dramatic. This year's start (20-16) is a little more realistic but a closer look shows that the Tribe may be once again overachieving.
The first thing that stands out is a -0.3 run differential. That equates to a pythWL of 17-19. Next is the schedule Cleveland has played. Of their 36 games, 27 came against team below .500 while only nine were against teams above .500. Those marks far and away "lead" the American League. Not surprising, the Indians have played the fewest games (7) of any AL team against the East Division. Note that they are 2-5 in those contests. Also of note is the fact that Cleveland is an amazing 8-1 in one-run games. Good teams often finish above .500 in one-run games but an 89% is a rate simply cannot be maintained.
Lastly, let's look at Cleveland's schedule the remainder of the season. The American League Central is pretty watered down at this point though Detroit and Kansas City have yet to play their best baseball. The
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Andrew Lange
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Free MLB Betting Pick: Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets
05.16.2012 07:16 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Cincinnati
(Leake) at
NY Mets
(Santana)
Recommendation: New York -135 5-inning
It doesn't appear that Cincinnati's Mike Leake (7.11 ERA) is fooling anyone these days. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up and it all takes place with velocity that hoovers around the high-80s. The only thing separating him from a batting practice pitcher is a decent curveball. He's potentially pitching for his job today and in a favorable ballpark but I still don't trust him. After missing all of 2011, Johan Santana has bounced back with strong numbers across the board. His velocity is down a tick but he's gotten 12 or more swinging strikes in five of seven starts which suggest his stuff is still effective. In the matchup of Leake vs. Santana, Santana has the edge and is worth a play on the 5-inning line at this price.
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Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets
Andrew Lange
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May
18
May
15
NFL by Rob Veno
NFL by Teddy Covers
NCAAF by Rob Veno
NCAAF by Teddy Covers
Accu-Stats
Accu-Stat Matchups
Schedule Sheet
Accu-Stat Gamelogs
NFL Team Pages
College Football Team Pages
MLB Team Pages
OTTO 10* NBA Eastern Conference Cash
[11-4 73% NBA Playoffs]
$20
Marty has dominated with his NBA here in the playoffs going 73% to date. He's ready to drive home another easy winner with this 10* on Friday. Yours for $20 it's guaranteed to cash or his next basketball report is on the house.
All Sport Special
[Thru 5/26]
$99
All Access Autobill
$299
Rest of NBA Playoffs
$149
Rest of NHL Playoffs
$149
Rest of May MLB
$149
2013 MLB Season
$749
Rest of PGA Season
$399
Brent Crow
Teddy Covers
Rob Veno
Erin Rynning
Marty Otto
Andrew Lange
Sammy P
Alf Musketa
Ian Cameron
