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MLB Handicapping: Peavy's fly ball ways not a good fit for Cellular Field

06.01.2012     12:05 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Adding to Teddy's free play on the Mariners/White Sox Over, here are a few things that stood out to me. Of qualified starting pitchers, Jake Peavy has been the strongest fly baller in the entire league at just a shade under 70%. Yet despite that he allowed a respectable six home runs in 70.1 innings. If you look at a majority of the other extreme fly ball pitchers, their home run/fly ball rate is above 10%. Phil Hughes, Mike Minor and Colby Lewis are around 15%. Peavy's rate is 6.5% -- a mark commonly tied to ground ballers or pitchers like Matt Cain and Jered Weaver who spend most of their time in pitcher friendly parks. Obviously Peavy is going to struggle moving forward with these rates -- especially at Cellular Field. And we've seen some regression with two home runs each of his last two home starts. Note that tonight's opponent, Seattle, is averaging 4.7 runs per game on the highway. They've played the most road games of any team in Read more

Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Chicago White Sox Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Alert: Bettors react to Strasburg's potential arm problems

06.01.2012     10:52 AM     Printer Friendly
Atlanta (Minor) at Washington (Strasburg) -145 O/U 7.5

The betting markets have come in strong against the Washington Nationals and Stephen Strasburg tonight. Strasburg left his last start with what was called "arm fatigue." He allowed a season high four earned runs and four walks. Unfortunately, supporting Atlanta's Mike Minor is pretty risky considering he's allowed 28 earned runs over his last five outings.  Not surprising to see the total bet up from 7 to 7.5. Line history courtesy of 5Dimes.


Tags: MLB Washington Nationals Atlanta Braves

MLB Gambling Free Pick: Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox

06.01.2012     10:03 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Seattle (Hernandez) at Chicago (Peavy) -125 O/U 7
Recommendation: Over

The White Sox have been Over machines at the Cell in recent weeks; 8-1 to the Over in their last nine tries at home.  Robin Ventura’s lineup has been crushing opposing pitching, pounding out 64 runs in those last nine at home.  Don’t expect King Felix to change the ChiSox offensive fortunes this evening.  Hernandez has been getting roughed up consistently in recent weeks, 1-3 with a 5.94 ERA in his last four trips to the hill.  He’s been bombed three times in his last five road starts and is winless with an ERA well over 4.00 in his last four starts on the south side of Chicago.

Seattle’s lineup came alive during their just concluded series at Texas, as the light hitting Mariners exploded for 31 runs in the final two games of the series, going Over the total by themselves in both contests.  They also scored 28 runs in the final five games of their previous road trip, finding offensive production much easier away from pitcher friendly Safeco Field.  Chicago starter Jake Peavy has been hammered for 13 earned runs in his Read more

Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Chicago White Sox Teddy Covers

Sports Betting Podcast 6-1-2012 with Handicapper Erin Rynning

06.01.2012     09:59 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Erin Rynning. ER broke down the MLB card and the NBA Playoffs from a betting perspective.

Today's segments
Erin Rynning - MLB and NBA Every Game on the Board

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: MLB NBA Erin Rynning

Las Vegas woman no longer has to work thanks to penny slot victory

06.01.2012     08:57 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
If at first you don't succeed, spin, spin again. After grinding out penny slots for the last decade, a Las Vegas woman was rewarded for her efforts by hitting a $2.2 million jackpot at the Orleans Casino.

Tags: Las Vegas

NBA Playoffs: Boston Celtics bet up to -2.5 for Game 3 vs. Miami Heat

06.01.2012     08:45 AM     Printer Friendly
Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals tonight and bettors are supporting the Boston Celtics and the Over. Down 2-0, the Celtics opened -1.5 and were bet up to -2.5. The total opened 179 and reached as high as 181.5 before some buyback pushed it down to 180.5/181. Boston is 7-8 ATS this postseason (3-4 ATS at home). Miami meanwhile is 9-4 ATS (3-2 ATS on the road). This will mark this first game this postseason that the Heat are an underdog. Line history courtesy of CRIS.



Tags: NBA Boston Celtics Miami Heat

MLB Gambling Notes: Detroit's infield defense has been brutal

06.01.2012     08:26 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Article on how Detroit's sub-par infield defense of Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Johnny Peralta, Ryan Rayburn and Ramon Santiago has cost the team plenty of runs. The Tigers rank near the bottom in nearly every defensive category.

As Rosenthal points out, the Tigers had converted 71 percent of their ground balls into outs (heading into last weekend), the worst rate in the majors, according to Bloomberg Sports. Toronto is first at 83.1 percent.

Tags: MLB Detroit Tigers

MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers

06.01.2012     08:15 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Pittsburgh (Correia) +135 at Milwaukee (Wolf) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Pittsburgh

The Brewers (23-28) return home following a seven-game road trip and which concluded with a four-game sweep of the LA Dodgers.  Milwaukee is just 11-13 at Miller Park this season and Randy Wolf (2-4, 5.73 ERA) is hardly a pitcher you can play with confidence, especially laying a pretty big price. Well aware the Brewers won eight of nine home games over the Pirates last season, but Milwaukee was a playoff team with a strong offense and better pitching (0.80 better ERA). Wolf is very hittable with 70 hits allowed in 55 innings with 22 walks (1.67 WHIP) and 30 strikeouts. His .313 BAA speaks loudly to his struggles this season. He’s been out-pitching his skills in recent years but it’s catching up to him as he turns 36 this season. Milwaukee’s lack of offense (.241) can no longer bail him out.

The Pirates offense is a big concern as they are hitting a NL-worst Read more

Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates Milwaukee Brewers __

MLB Betting Alert: Detroit sends rookie lefty Casey Crosby to the hill

06.01.2012     08:05 AM     Printer Friendly
NY Yankees (Sabathia) -160 at Detroit (Crosby) O/U 8.5

Detroit lefty Casey Crosby will make his MLB debut tonight against the New York Yankees. He's a big kid at 6-5 and has shown a strong ability to miss bats with 10.13 strikeouts per 9 innings at Triple-A Toledo. Command has been an issue at times though over his last two starts, he fanned 16 while walking only one. He was beat out by Drew Smyly for a spot in the rotation to start the season.



Tags: MLB Detroit Tigers New York Yankees

MLB Betting Notes: Boston's Buchholz says he is making progress

06.01.2012     07:04 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Boston (Buchholz) at Toronto (Alvarez) -125 O/U 9.5

No pitcher in baseball has had more "encouraging starts" than Boston's Clay Buchholz. After allowing two earned runs in seven innings last time out against Tampa Bay, Buchholz noted that he's felt much better of late. But while Buchholz’s last four starts were an upgrade over (4.56 ERA) April's disaster (8.69 ERA) there is still nothing to indicate that he is ready to dominate.

“I’ve been able to start trusting it again and start throwing it like I have in the past instead of trying to baby it and guide it and throw it for a strike,” the right-hander explained. “It’s been just trying to throw a fastball with a different grip right now, and that’s when it’s at its best.

“It’s the pitch it always has been

Read more

Tags: MLB Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays



MLB Handicapping: Hitting and pitching numbers identical to last season

05.31.2012     02:48 PM     Printer Friendly
Taking a quick look at the league-wide hitting and pitching stats for 2011 and 2012. The numbers are almost identical. Totals meanwhile are nearly 50-50 with a small six-game edge toward the Over.

2011 National League Batting
4.13 runs per game
.253 batting average
.319 on-base %
.391 slugging %
.719 OPS

2012 National League Batting
4.15 runs per game
.252 batting average
.318 on-base %
.395 slugging %
.713 OPS

2011 American League Batting
4.46 runs per game
.258 batting average
.323 on-base %
.408 slugging %
.730 OPS

2012 American League Batting
4.42 runs per game
.252 batting average
.320 on-base Read more

Tags: MLB

College Football Handicapping: PAC-12 conference schedules

05.31.2012     01:15 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The PAC-12 is one of the few conferences that weren't bit by the realignment bug. Teams will once again play nine conference games. In the chart below we listed conference opponents as well as the two teams they skip. For example, conference favorite USC misses Washington State and Oregon State which on paper look like two wins. Utah meanwhile avoids both Oregon and Stanford and plays USC at home. Washington plays one of the more difficult schedules in the country. The Huskies open at home against San Diego State followed by a trip the LSU. They then open conference play vs. Stanford, at Oregon, vs. USC and at Arizona. They also close the year with back-to-back road games.

2012 PAC-12 Conference Schedules
PAC-12 North
Conference Opponents (Do Not Play)
at USC, vs. ASU, vs. UCLA, at WSU, vs. STAN, at UTAH, vs. UW, vs. ORE, at OSU (COL, AZ)
vs. AZ, at WSU, vs. UW, at ASU, vs. COL, at USC, at CAL, vs. STAN, at OSU (UCLA, UTAH)
Oregon State
at UCLA, at AZ, vs. WSU, vs. UTAH, at UW, vs. ASU, at STAN, vs. CAL, vs. ORE (COL, USC)
vs. USC, at UW, vs. AZ, at CAL, vs. WSU, at COLO, vs. OSU, at ORE, at UCLA (UTAH, ASU)
vs. STAN, at ORE, vs. USC, at AZ, vs. OSU, at CAL, vs. UTAH, at COLO, at WSU (ASU, UCLA)
Washington State
vs. COL, vs. ORE, at OSU, vs. CAL, at STAN, at UTAH, vs. UCLA, at ASU, vs. UW (USC, AZ)
PAC-12 South
Conference Opponents (Do Not Play)
at ORE, vs. OSU, at STAN, vs. UW, vs. USC, at UCLA, vs. COL, at UTAH, vs. ASU (CAL, WSU)
Arizona State
vs. UTAH, at CAL, at COL, vs. ORE, vs. UCLA, at OSU, at USC, vs. WSU, at AZ (STAN, OSU)
at WSU, vs. UCLA, vs. ASU, at USC, at ORE, vs. STAN, at AZ, vs. UW, vs. UTAH (COL, CAL}
vs. OSU, at COL, vs. UTAH, at ASU, vs. AZ, at WSU, vs. USC, vs. STAN (ORE, WASH)
at STAN, vs. CAL, at UTAH, at UW, vs. COL, at AZ, vs. ORE, vs. ASU, at UCLA (WSU, OSU)
at ASU, vs. USC, at UCLA, at OSU, vs. CAL, vs. WSU, at UW, vs. AZ, at COL (ORE, STAN)

Tags: College Football PAC-12

MLB Betting Notes: Expect totals at Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park to climb

05.31.2012     12:01 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Remember a few weeks back when totals at Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park were in that 7-5-8.5 range? Well with the weather warming, a starting rotation that has been historically prone to giving up the long ball, AND the fact that hitting one out in right center requires the strength of an average teenager, those 9's you saw during the recent series against Colorado are about to become the norm. 

"The ball doesn't fly here any better than any other place and it's not that it's super windy,'' said Reds starter Bronson Arroyo.  "It's that the gaps are small.

"You can have short lines like Yankee Stadium, but as long as the gaps get big, you're OK. Gaps are your safe zone. They keep guys from hitting the ball out all over the place. It's frustrating when a ball that would be caught in 25 other parks goes out here by a couple of rows.

"If the gaps were 20 feet bigger here you'd cut down 20 to 30 home runs to right-center every year and that would make it a little fairer for everyone. But at

Read more

Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds

NBA Western Conference Finals: Bettors currently supporting Oklahoma City Thunder

05.31.2012     10:12 AM     Printer Friendly
Bettors continue to support the Oklahoma City Thunder for tonight's Game 3 vs. San Antonio. The Thunder opened -3.5 at CRIS and -3 at Pinnacle. A majority of sportsbooks offshore and in Las Vegas now have OKC -4. Pinnacle could be headed to -4.5 with -4 (-110) the current price. Jazz is the only shop showing OKC -4.5. Line history courtesy of Pinnacle.


Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder San Antonio Spurs

MLB Handicapping: American League rookie pitchers

05.31.2012     09:36 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Good breakdown of a few American League rookie pitchers. Note that of the group, Alex Cobb, Drew Hutchison, Scott Diamond, and Jarrod Parker, all but Parker is profitable this season.

Jarrod Parker (A's are 3-4 in his starts) -0.30 units
Scott Diamond (Twins are 4-1 in his starts) +4.10 units
Alex Cobb (Rays are 2-1 in his starts) +1.0 units
Drew Hutchison (Jays are 5-3 in his starts +2.20 units

Tags: MLB

Sports Betting Podcast 5-31-2012 with Handicapper Rob Veno

05.31.2012     09:34 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Rob Veno. Rob broke down the MLB card and the NBA Playoffs from a betting perspective.

Today's segments
Rob Veno - MLB and NBA Every Game on the Board

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: MLB NBA Rob Veno

Umpire Laz Diaz is a total goofball

05.31.2012     08:11 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Commonly referred to as one of the worst umpires in baseball, Laz Diaz was in stellar form during last night's Yankees-Angels game. For whatever reason, Diaz apparently spent much of it "Big Leaguing" Russell Martin.

"Laz Diaz is a d---. Write it hard,'' Martin shouted as he came into the clubhouse.

I think it happened in the second inning or something," Martin said at his locker after the game. "And then even at the end of the game, after I got hit in the neck, I'm like, 'can I throw the ball back now?' He's like still, no. I'm like, 'you're such a d---. You're a d---, dude. Like, for real. Unbelievable.' "

Tags: MLB New York Yankees

MLB Betting News: Pittsburgh's AJ Burnett continues to pitch like a monster

05.31.2012     07:56 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
On the surface, Pittsburgh's AJ Burnett has produced some solid numbers this season: 4-2, 50 IP, 42 Ks, 14 BBs, 3.60 ERA. But Burnett deserves a lot more credit. Back on May 2, he was left out to dry against St. Louis, allowing 12 earned runs in 2.2 innings. His ERA following that start was an incredible 8.04. But if we eliminate that particular outing, Burnett's seasonal numbers are as good as any starter in the baseball: 7 starts, 47.1 innings, 36 hits, 8 ERs, 13 BBs, 40 Ks, 1.51 ERA. More importantly, the Pirates are 6-1 in those games. In May alone, Pittsburgh is a respectable 15-12. Of those 27 games, with Burnett and Erik Bedard on the bump, they are 10-2. Note that the Pirates are 25-25 despite the fact that they have been outscored by 29 runs. Their Pythagorean W-L record is 21-29.

Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates

More and more people are starting to call out ridiculous gambling laws

05.31.2012     07:38 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Excellent editorial from the Hartford Courant on the hypocrisy of gambling laws in the United States.

The point is American gambling is like a box of chocolate-covered coins. We don't know what we're getting from one state to the next, but we are spilling coins all over the place. It'll be OK to bet on the Belmont Stakes in Connecticut on June 9, but you absolutely cannot have another and bet on Stanley Cup Game 5 that night. It's OK to throw hundreds at our casino blackjack tables, but do not gamble a nickel on Bobby Valentine's bullpen choices. What? You think that March Madness pool of yours isn't gambling?

MLB Gambling News: Scherzer knows he's been unlucky this year

05.31.2012     07:31 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
FanGraphs got some great quotes on the enigmatic Max Scherzer. Scherzer is apparently well aware of his abnormally high BABIP (.394, worst among qualified starters). He's also been pleased with his stuff of late but continues to make a handful of mistake pitches. Scherzer is a +125 road underdog at Boston tonight. 

“Have I had some bad luck? I can think of a few times I have and a few times I haven’t. As a pitcher, it’s hard to say that you’ve pitched in bad luck, because you know that you’ve made some mistakes. I can’t sit here and slouch those mistakes off.”

“I don’t get too caught up in strikeouts. I kind of see them as where I am physically, and where my stuff is. Right now, I feel very good about where my stuff is. Whether I get more strikeouts, or fewer strikeouts, is something I really can’t control. All I can control is my walks, and when I’m doing a good job of that is when I’m usually pitching my best. I have to throw quality strikes.”

Tags: MLB Detroit Tigers

MLB Betting Recap: Seattle Mariners score three touchdowns against Texas

05.31.2012     07:10 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Are we sure steroids are completely out of baseball? We gotta at least ask after seeing Seattle hang 21 runs on Texas last night. Note the night prior to that the Mariners put up 10 runs. That's 14% of their seasonal scoring output in two games! Here were Seattle's splits two nights ago: .226/.287/.359/.646. Here are Seattle's splits after scoring 31 runs in two games: .234/.295/.374/.669.

American League Runs Scored Rankings 5/30
7. Cleveland 216
8t. Tampa Bay 213
8t. Detroit 213
10. Seattle 197
11t. Kansas City 194
11t. Los Angeles 194
13. Minnesota 192
14. Oakland 164

American League Runs Scored Rankings 5/31
7. Cleveland 219
8. Seattle 218
9. Detroit 217
10. Tampa Bay 216
11. Kansas City 200
12. Los Angeles 199
13. Minnesota 196
14. Oakland 164


Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers





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