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MLB Handicapping: Oddsmakers and bettors adjust to hot weather
06.22.2012 01:36 PM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
A lot of talk about warm temperatures throughout the Midwest and East and the impact it has had on home runs. Over the last three days, there were
83 home runs in 36 games
. Yet from a betting perspective totals were 15-19-2 Over/Under (13-14 O/U if you eliminate games on the West Coast). The heat without question helps produce more home runs but the results show that with adjustments by oddsmakers and the betting markets, blindly playing games in hot temps over the total is far from automatic. It is my belief that games involving pitchers that are prone to fly balls that provide the optimal situation to bet Overs. Jake Wesbrook, Justin Masterson, Rick Porcello, and Dillon Gee all have groundball tendencies and fared well in recent starts whereas flyballers Phil Hughes and Bronson Arroyo were pounded for a combined six home runs. There were however some grounballers who struggled (Derek Lowe) and some flyballers who had success (Jake Peavy, James McDonald) so each game still requires a good old fashion handicap.
If you are looking for a scientific
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MLB
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Paddy Power picks up tab on Bendtner's fine
06.22.2012 12:54 PM
Printer Friendly
Paddy Power will reportedly
foot the bill
(total pun!) on UEFA's fine of Denmark striker Nicklas Bendtner. Bendtner owes around $125K USD and will miss Denmark's opening game of the 2014 World Cup qualifier.
"We've decided to foot the bill for the fine. Paddy Power are paying Bendtner's massively over the top 100,000-euro fine."
"We don't believe that Nicklas should be penalised for nothing more serious than wearing his lucky underpants which in fairness was only a bit of fun."
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Nevada hands out online gaming licenses to IGT and Bally
06.22.2012 10:37 AM
Printer Friendly
While William Hill just snagged a
traditional gaming license
for the state of Nevada, International Game Technology and Bally Technologies were approved for
online gaming
. According to the Gaming Control Board, online poker could be made available to state residents as early as late 2012/early 2013.
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MLB Free Gambling Play: Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds
06.22.2012 10:29 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Minnesota
(Blackburn) at
Cincinnati
(Bailey)
Recommendation: Cincinnati R/L -1.5 +105
The Twins have lost each of their last three series; outscored 17-5 in their three game set at Pittsburgh earlier this week. Their lineup is slumping again, managing only 16 runs scored in their last seven games. Their pitching staff is nothing short of a disaster area – opponents have scored 8, 7, 9, 6, 5, 6, 4, 7, 1 and 9 runs against them in their last ten games, while the Twins starters, as a group, have recorded a grand total of two outs past the sixth inning during that entire span. That leaves an overworked bullpen behind struggling Minnesota starter Nick Blackburn this evening, opening the door for a big Reds blowout!
Blackburn would have the worst ERA among full time major league starting pitchers if he had enough innings to qualify. But he’s been knocked out of the box so early so often that he’s averaged less than five innings per start,
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Minnesota Twins
Cincinnati Reds
Teddy Covers
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Sports Betting Podcast 6-22-2012 with Handicapper Erin Rynning
06.22.2012 10:23 AM
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Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Erin Rynning. ER broke down the MLB card from a betting perspective.
Today's segments
Erin Rynning - MLB Every Game on the Board
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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MLB
Erin Rynning
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MLB Handicapper Free Pick: New York Yankees at New York Mets
06.22.2012 10:20 AM
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Submitted by
NY Yankees
(Pettitte) at
NY Mets
(Niese)
Recommendation: Mets +120 1st 5 innings
We’re swinging a big bat the past week going 8-1 on our MLB plays and posting over +12 units of profit following our Interleague Game of the Year winner as the Indians pounded the Reds 8-1. June has produced solid profits and we’ll take a shot tonight in the Subway Series at Citi Field. The Mets (38-32) play with redemption following a series sweep to the Yankees June 10th. The Yankees (41-27) lead the Majors with 105 home runs, but the Bronx Bombers won’t have their favorable hitter’s park this series. Yankee Stadium is tied for the MLB lead yielding 2.88 HR per game, while Citi Field is no. 25 at 1.57 HR per game.
But note that the Yankees continue to struggle with men in scoring position; ranking among the worst in the Majors with a .218 batting average with RISP. Mets starter Jon Niese did not allow an earned run over seven innings against the Yankees June 10th, and
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MLB
New York Yankees
New York Mets
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MLB Handicapping: Toronto's pitching staff will be up against it
06.22.2012 08:27 AM
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Update on Toronto's
starting pitching situation
. If the last two games were any indication, the Blue Jays are going to need to score five runs or more per game to even compete. Joel Carreno was pounded for five runs and three dingers against Milwaukee. A similar outcome from Jesse Chavez (2.2 IP, 4 ERs) prior to that. Add in fringe starter Brett Cecil and Mr. Borrowed Time Henderson Alvarez and you can see things are likely to get worse before they get better. And then there is Ricky Romero who takes the ball tonight in Philadelphia. Romero is somehow 7-1 but he too may be on borrowed time considering his strikeout, walk, BABIP, and FIP numbers all suggest upcoming struggles. Note that the Jays recently aquired Sean O’Sullivan and David Pauley.
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MLB
Toronto Blue Jays
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MLB Gambling Notes: Oswalt makes first start for Texas
06.22.2012 07:55 AM
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Colorado
(Friedrich) at
Texas
(Oswalt) -200 O/U 10.5
Texas' Roy Oswalt will make his
seasonable debut
tonight against Colorado. Oswalt threw 100 pitches in his most recent start for Triple-A Round Rock.
"I feel great," Oswalt said in a conference call Wednesday. "I feel as good as I've always felt. I don't really have any complications anywhere right now. The biggest thing is to get back going and get a few starts under your belt where you have muscle memory and feel comfortable. You can start building off that."
"I think I'm pretty close," Oswalt said. "The biggest thing down here was to build some arm strength and get back into pitching shape. You can throw a lot of bullpens and lift a lot of weights, but until you get out there and compete against hitters and get into pitching shape, you can't duplicate
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MLB
Texas Rangers
Colorado Rockies
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Millman talks with William Hill CEO about presence in Nevada
06.22.2012 07:44 AM
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ESPN’s Chad Millman interviewed William Hill CEO Ralph Topping on his most recent
podcast
. Topping discusses the future of William Hill following the approval of its Nevada gaming license.
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MLB Betting News: Braves roll the dice with Jurrjens in Fenway
06.22.2012 07:36 AM
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Atlanta
(Jurrjens) at
Boston
(Lester) -185 O/U 10.5
With Brandon Beachy out for the season, the Atlanta Braves
recalled Jair Jurrjens
. Jurrjens was sent down in late-April after allowing 17 earned runs in 16.1 innings. His numbers in Triple-A weren't very impressive (5.27 ERA, 28 strikeouts in 56.1 innings) but manager Fredi Gonzalez insists his stay was productive.
“We asked him to improve his consistency on his [velocity], which he has,” Gonzalez said. “Strengthen the [speed difference] in his changeup and his fastball, and he’s done that. And I think he’s come up with a slider that’s got more depth on it. I’m curious to see him pitch, I really am.”
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Atlanta Braves
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Nevada Control Board approves William Hill gaming license
06.22.2012 06:53 AM
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Yesterday British bookmaker William Hill was officially granted a
gaming license
by the Nevada Control Board. William Hill recently purchased American Wagering, Inc., Brandywine LLC and Sierra Development Co. According to Hill's CEO, the company will operate at 159 locations within the state.
“I started filling out the application form on the day of the royal wedding (between Prince William and Kate Middleton) and didn’t finish it until well after it was over,” he said. “I never saw the wedding at all. I guess that’s why we have DVDs.”
Topping said he hopes to have William Hill’s operations running by the start of the National Football League season, but “we’re not going to cry in our onion soup if we don’t get there,” he said in an interview after the two-hour hearing.
“We not going to make false promises, but it’s a nice target to have,” he said.
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Las Vegas
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June
23
June
21
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ER 20* MLB AL Game of the Month
[45-18 +44.33 Best Bet Streak]
$29
ER knows a big value when he sees one and he isn't wasting any time getting to the window with this huge two unit play. His 20* report on tap this afternoon is yours for $29. His best bets have been incredible going 45-18 71% in all sports! This one wins or his next MLB report is free.
Sammy 20* NHL Power Play
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Sammy has dominated the NHL all season long and he continues to run red hot with his Power Play best bets going 69% over his last 35 releases. He comes back with another huge 20* winner tonight and it is yours for $29. Guaranteed to win or his next hockey report is yours absolutely free.
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Teddy doesn't release many 20* plays so when a play this big comes along you've got to get on board. His 20* Big Ticket totals are an incredible 23-8 across all sports his last 31 releases! This one is yours for just $29 and it's guaranteed to cash or his next baseball report is free.
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Rob has been rolling in 2013 including a stellar +42.59 unit all sports mark in 2013. Today he takes to the diamond with this strong 10* and you can join him for just $20. This release is guaranteed to win or his next baseball report is free.
ICC 10* MLB Side & Total 2-Pack
[222-166 +54.31 All Sports Hot Streak]
$20
Ian Cameron has delivered a DOMINATING 222-166 all sports run in 2013 over his last 388 plays which has banked +54.31 units of profit! It's becoming a historic all sports run for Ian and his clients who have also enjoyed a 19-9 streak in his last 28 baseball plays! He's ready to keep both streaks going with a 10* MLB Side & Total 2-Pack as he attacks both the side and total in the same game! You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $20 and it is guaranteed to go 2-0 or his next baseball report is free.
OTTO 10* MLB Slugfest Total
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Join Marty Otto on the bases with this 10* total as he extends a strong 69% hot streak across all sports. You can pick up his top report for just $20 and it wins or you'll get his next MLB report at no cost.
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Teddy has racked up a rock solid 61% hot streak over his last 45 NBA sides and he's ready to deliver another winning report tonight as the Pacers and Knicks battle in Game 6. Yours for just $20, it's guaranteed to win or you'll get his next NBA report at no cost.
ICC 10* NHL Playoffs Play Of The Day
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Ian Cameron and his clients are enjoying a terrific 93-70 NHL Hockey season which has banked +24.48 units of profit as part of his incredible run of +54.31 units of profit in all sports since January! Ian is ready to deliver a rock solid 10* NHL Playoffs Play Of The Day! You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $20 and it is guaranteed to go 2-0 or his next hockey report is free.
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Alf has three fights lined up for this UFC event including a 10* report on the main event between Rockhold and Belfort! You get all three for just $29 and the package is guaranteed to produce a net profit or his next fight card is free.
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