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No-name sportsbook refunds bets on Adam Scott's British Open meltdown
07.24.2012 02:01 PM
Printer Friendly
So we found a story about a sportsbook (we won't mention its name because A. we've never heard of it and B. it may or may not be run out of some dude's garage in Antigua) deciding to
refund their customers' bets
on Adam Scott to win the British Open.
“We feel it's our duty to refund the players for taking such a bad beat. His collapse was historic and we know the bettors who had him must feel as awful as he does.”
Imagine for a second, if you will, Pinnacle creating a policy to refund all “bad beat” bets.
Pinnacle: “Pinnacle customer service, how may I help you today?”
Customer: “Did you see the end of that Cubs game yesterday? Freakin’ Carlos Marmol blows a three-run lead WITH TWO OUTS!”
Pinnacle: “Yes, we did sir and we here at Pinnacle are sincerely sorry for your loss. So much so that we’ve decided to refund your bet. It will be back in your account later this
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PGA
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NCAAF Handicapping: Career offensive line starts and pointspread results
07.24.2012 01:24 PM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Come football season, we like to put together a lot of in-depth blogs using recent stats and results to see if we can’t come up with usable trends and angles to apply to the upcoming season. We’ll admit that more often than not, despite the research, what we find is random. But sometimes eliminating a potential angle is just as important as discovering one.
Today we take a look at returning offensive line starters. Ask any bettor what one of the key ingredients is in predicting season-long pointspread successes and failures and a majority will point to offensive line play. It doesn’t take much to notice that when sportsbooks start offering odds to win the conference and season over/under numbers, teams that return four and five o-line starters get a lot more respect than those who must reload along their front five. So with offensive lines being such a big factor in how oddsmakers and bettors judge teams in the preseason, it makes sense to research whether or not that attention is warranted.
Unfortunately there is no perfect way at judging whether or not offensive line experience is correlated to pointspread results. And while Phil
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Tags:
College Football
Andrew Lange
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Someone bet $15K on Bolt to win the 100 meters, more big wagers expected
07.24.2012 10:25 AM
Printer Friendly
European sportsbooks gear up for
betting on the Olympics
. Ladbrokes reportedly took at $15K pound wager on Usain Bolt to win the 100 meters.
"We have a lot of strict regulations in place to guard against any funny business," Crilly said. "If we were to see an unusually large bet for a sport we were not particularly expecting large amounts of money for, it would flash up ... If there was any suggestion that it was suspicious we would get authorities involved."
"We anticipate our high roller customers will fancy him to do the business,' she said. "If they were to want 50,000 pounds ($77,500) or more on Bolt, then we will happily lay it."
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College Football Betting: In order to succeed, Texas needs to find a QB
07.24.2012 10:20 AM
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Expectation are high in Austin with the Texas Longhorns lined at 9 wins and the second betting choice (+300) to win the Big XII behind Oklahoma (-125). The obvious question heading into camp is
who will play quarterback
? Since Colt McCoy left in 2009, the Longhorns ranked 7th (232.0 ypg) and 8th (189.9 ypg) in passing in the Big XII.
“Last year, at this time, I sat here and we had four _ and there was a lot of concern about trying to get four guys prepared for a new offense. So at the same time Gilbert gets hurt in the second ballgame, David Ash steps up as a true freshman, Case McCoy jumps in, and Connor Wood and transfers, so it was all over the place. What we have done now, we have two older guys that have been through a year with Bryan Harsin and Major Applewhite offense. They both won significant games, one against‑‑ Case against A&M in College Station at the end of the year, David Ash in the Bowl game against Cal. So we’re coming in at a much better place this year
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NFL Handicapping: Seattle heads into camp with three-way battle at QB
07.24.2012 10:08 AM
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Update of Seattle's
quarterback competition
between Matt Flynn, Tarvaris Jackson and Russell Wilson.
“Tarvaris has an advantage. He’s been with (offensive coordinator) Darrell (Bevell) for a long time,” Carroll said. “So those guys have caught up quickly and it’ll be really important to see how they come back when we’re top speed and going, and see how it all fits together. So I’m just as anxious to see as you guys.”
“I don’t think we look at it like we’re going against each other. We’re trying to help each other out,” Flynn said. “If they make a good throw, I’m the first one there telling them good job and whatever. It’s not like there’s any bad blood coming out here. It’s not like that. Everyone’s trying to compete. Everyone’s trying to get better and everyone’s trying to make the team better. I think that’s really the overall goal.”Take the Over.
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MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels
07.24.2012 10:04 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Kansas City
(Smith) at
LA Angels
(Richards) -175 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over
The betting markets aren’t used to seeing totals of 9 hung at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, a notoriously pitcher friendly ballpark. LA’s highest posted total through their first 44 home games was 8.5. We saw the first 9 of the season in Saturday’s matinee against Texas, with the struggling Ervin Santana on the hill for LA matching up against the inconsistent Yu Darvish. Bettors cashed that Over with relative ease after eight runs were scored in the first three innings.
Tonight, we’re seeing the second 9 of the season in LA, and the betting markets are pounding the Under in morning trading. I don’t agree with that move. The Angels lineup is on fire right now, finally living up to the expectations from their massive payroll. They’ve scored 53 runs in their last nine games, just shy of six runs per contest, going 6-2-1 to the Over in the
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Kansas City Royals
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NCAAF Gambling: Snyder wants K-State to perform better when laying points
07.24.2012 09:59 AM
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Kansas State's Bill Snyder knows pointspreads. He many not come out and directly admit as such, but the following quote hints that he may have a copy of Phil Steele on his desk. Snyder’s concern this season is how his team
performs when they are “expected” to win
. KSU has been at its best in the role of an underdog with a 10-13 SU and 15-8 ATS mark since Synder's return in 2009. As a favorite, 11-2 SU but 6-7 ATS.
“But, for us, that’s, I don’t think, really significant. How do I deal with it? Probably not the same way that young people in the program do. Do we perform better as, quote/unquote, underdogs? That I don’t know. I haven’t seen any statistics in that regard. Last year obviously we played reasonably well in those circumstances. I have a greater concern about game by game when we are perhaps selected as favorites in a ballgame. I think that‑‑ as any coach probably would say, that’s where your greatest
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Kansas State Wildcats
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College Football Betting: TCU prepares for life in the Big XII
07.24.2012 09:45 AM
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TCU preps for its
first season in the Big XII
. The biggest question mark is whether or not the defense can bounce back AND handle some of the high-powered offenses of the Big XII. Last season, the Horned Frogs finished 32nd in total defense (347.4) and allowed 50 points to Baylor, 40 to SMU and 35 to Boise State. Over the last four years, TCU went 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS vs. BCS Conference opponents.
TCU Total Defense Last 5 years
2011: 32nd - 347.4 ypg
2010: 1st - 228.5 ypg
2009: 1st - 239.7 ypg
2008: 1st - 217.8 ypg
2007: 15th - 323.6 ypg
"You've got to be prepared," said TCU defensive end Stansly Maponga. "The speed is going to be different."
"People said: 'You're not going to be playing New Mexico anymore. You're not going to be playing Vegas anymore,'" Patterson continued. "Yeah, but those were 50-point ball games. What's reality? Because all you have to do is win by one point to get to where you need to go."
"… If I said,
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MLB Gambling Free Pick: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
07.24.2012 09:24 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Chicago Cubs
(Maholm) +165 at
Pittsburgh
(McDonald) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Chicago
FanGraphs
pointed out some excellent statistics on the likelihood of regression for Pittsburgh's James McDonald. Here are some of the highlights:
He has posted a walk rate of 5.3 during the month after two straight months at 2.1, while his strikeout rate has sat below 7.0 since the beginning of June.
There is absolutely no reason to believe he can possibly sustain a .257 BABIP, especially given his 22% line drive rate and miniscule pop-up rate.
Since the All-Star break, we've seen McDonald start to regress with two sub-par starts that resulted in 9.2 IP, 17 hits, 10 ER, 3 HRs, 9 BBs, 4 Ks. Bottom line is even when McDonald was dialed in, trusting him as a -175 favorite was difficult. With him primed for more regression the decision to fade him
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Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
Andrew Lange
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Sportsbook posts Week 1 College Football odds
07.24.2012 09:02 AM
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BetOnline posted a few lines for the opening day of the college football season.
South Carolina -7 @ Vanderbilt
Central Florida -21 at Akron
Eastern Michigan at Ball State -4.5
Texas A&M -9.5 vs. Louisiana Tech (Shreveport, LA)
UMass at UConn -21
UCLA -14 at Rice
Washington State at BYU -12.5
Minnesota -10 at UNLV
Texas-San Antonio at South Alabama -6
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Handicapper Rob Veno talks Big XII betting on the Sportsmemo Podcast
07.24.2012 08:57 AM
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Sportsmemo Handicappers Rob Veno and Andrew Lange discussed the Big XII on yesterday's Podcast. You can
listen here
.
2012 Big XII Betting Prices and Returning Starters
Team
5Dimes O/U
Greek Conf
Returning Off
Returning Def
Baylor
6.5un-140
+5000
6
8
Iowa State
4.5un-145
+6500
7*
5
Kansas
3.5ov-135
+12500
7
6
Kansas State
7.5un-160
+1000
9*
7
Oklahoma
10
-125
8*
7
Oklahoma State
8ov-150
+2500
6
8
TCU
8ov-145
+500
6*
7
Texas
9un-120
+300
10*
7
Texas Tech
6.5un-125
+2800
9*
10
West Virginia
8.5ov-120
+650
8*
6
Tags:
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Big XII
Rob Veno
Andrew Lange
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Sportsmemo Handicapper Alf Musketa's Olympic Betting Preview
07.24.2012 08:02 AM
Alf Musketa
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Submitted by Alf Musketa
In this Olympic Betting Preview we'll talk about why you should be looking at some of many the Gold Medal props offered this week. Of the two best swimmers on the planet, Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte, who do we bet? Is "the Bolt” or “the Beast" the play in the men's 100 meters? Does Great Britain really have a home field advantage in the Olympics? Is the current USA Basketball Dream Team worth a play? And we'll touch upon some of the best types of Olympic bets that are available.
Not in my lifetime have I seen such a smorgasbord of bets, super props, and unbelievable value offered for an Olympics – and it stretches across two and a half weeks starting Friday. As the Olympics progress there will be individual heat matchups, final matchups, top 3 wagering and more. The only event that I can think of with this many betting options at one time or in the span of a week or two is the Super Bowl and its endless array of props.
With 302 total Olympic events, we have been prepping for this opportunity for almost a year. I've watched every Samsung Diamond League event, Adidas Grand Prix Track and Field events, the Speedo Championships, Zone
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Football is almost here, but still plenty of opportunity for MLB profits
07.24.2012 07:24 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
NFL training camps open up around the country this coming weekend. The start of fall practice for college football isn’t far behind. Wiseguy bettors are spending a good portion of their time focusing on football right now. We’ve got a rapidly maturing NFL Season win total marketplace, both here in Vegas and offshore. Odds to win the NFL Divisions are up. Week 1 numbers are available at multiple sportsbooks.
The first preseason Week 1 pointspreads are now on the radar screen, as are the Week 1 college football pointspreads – the games are already loaded into the system on my SportsOptions Live Odds screen. College football season win totals are up as are odds to win the various conferences. Best of all, just about every day from here through the ‘real’ start of football season at the end of August, we’ll see fresh numbers on a daily basis at one sportsbook or another.
So what happens when the betting markets shift their focus towards football? After all, we’re only ten days out from the All Star break – there’s more than two full months of regular season baseball still to play. There isn’t a team in
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College Football
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July
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