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Don't miss Saturday's Sportsmemo Week 2 College Football Live Forum Chat
09.07.2012 01:34 PM
Printer Friendly
We'll be back in action on Saturday with the
Sportsmemo College Football Live Forum Chat
. Follow us throughout the day with analysis and input from the Sportsmemo Handicappers as well as free halftime recommendations. Be there or be square! If you aren't a posting forum member,
click here
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NFL Betting Stock Watch: San Diego Chargers offer little value for bettors
09.07.2012 12:29 PM
ER Sports
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Submitted by ER Sports
Sell the San Diego Chargers
– Well, here we are again at the start of a new NFL season and looking to bet against the Chargers. To say this team has disappointed would be an understatement. The Chargers were talented and poised for a big time, long-term run in the AFC but after nine- and eight-win seasons there remain more questions than answers. Most of these questions linger around head coach Norv Turner and without any changes made in that department we must expect this team to fall short expectations. The talent level now must be called into question – or at least the erosion of talent – as well with general manager AJ Smith. On the field the cupboard is far from empty starting with quarterback Philip Rivers, but 20 interceptions and five lost fumbles are unacceptable for someone with his experience. Two years ago it was their special teams, last year it was the defense, and now we could see the offense could decline. There are questions on the offensive line starting with left tackle and Jared Gaither. The wide receiver position is on hold after saying goodbye to Vincent Jackson and losing Vincent Brown to a broken ankle. The defense will
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San Diego Chargers
Erin Rynning
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College Football Handicapping: Bettors continue to pound games OVER the total
09.07.2012 12:18 PM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
Up-tempo, no huddle spread offenses aren’t new to college football. But the amount of teams that employ it on a regular basis right now is. Prior to this decade, Houston and Hawaii were two of the only teams that went the pass-happy route. The early 1990’s brought Florida’s “Fun-n-Gun” directed by head coach Steve Spurrier. Later that decade, Purdue’s aerial assault took wings under head coach Joe Tiller. Then in 2000, first-year head coach Mike Leach unveiled his “Air Raid” offense and Northwestern under head coach Randy Walker adopted a similar style. From there the floodgates have opened. Within the last 12 years we’ve gone from a few select programs that would push the tempo to now, where by my count roughly 39 FBS teams use up-tempo/spread as their base offense. Beyond those, almost every other team has some form of break neck pace incorporated in their playbook.
The impact all of this 80-snap-per-game style has dramatically changed the world of college football betting and oddsmaking where totals are concerned. Of the 43 traditional board and added board games being played this week, nine are lined with
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Rob Veno
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NFL Betting Stock Watch: Small improvements could make Jacksonville an ATS sleeper
09.07.2012 12:03 PM
ER Sports
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Submitted by ER Sports
Buy the Jacksonville Jaguars
– It all went wrong for the Jaguars in 2011 stemming from the quarterback position and lame duck head Jack Del Rio. The Jaguars finished the campaign 4-12 which included two wins against Indianapolis and another against Tampa Bay. Injuries hampered the Jaguars as well with 53 starts lost. The obvious key to any kind of turnaround this season starts with quarterback title Blaine Gabbert. It’s important to remember how awful Gabbert was last season. He was Jimmy Claussen bad! That should say it all; however he had a real uphill battle. The lockout sapped valuable reps and experience a young signal caller simply needs to prep for life in the NFL. He was given a poor support system, and lacked offensive weapons as well. Quite honestly, I’m not sure if Gabbert even has what it takes to become a better than average NFL quarterback. However, a modest improvement from Gabbert should equate to better results from the team. By many accounts this is going to be the case. He’ll have a much better support system around him with new head coach Mike Mularkey and company. Gabbert worked extremely hard during the off-season
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Jacksonville Jaguars
Erin Rynning
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College Football Betting Preview: Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa Hawkeyes
09.07.2012 11:52 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Iowa State
at
Iowa
Teddy Covers' Recommendation:
Iowa State
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - Big Ten Network
CRIS Opener:
Iowa -4.5 O/U 47
CRIS Current:
Iowa -3.5 O/U 49
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Iowa -6.5
There’s not a lot to like about Iowa this year. The Hawkeyes program has been in steady decline since their shocking run to the Orange Bowl following the 2009 season. Head coach Kirk Ferentz is no longer able to attract NFL level recruits the way that he did for many of his previous 13 seasons on the job. The Hawkeyes didn’t reach the end zone against rebuilding Northern Illinois until the final two minutes of the game last week, escaping with a one point victory over a mid-tier MAC squad. An offensive line that has regularly sent graduated to the NFL doesn’t appear to have any NFL caliber talent in 2012.
This team lacks offensive playmakers as well, and QB James Vandenberg
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Iowa State Cyclones
Big XII
Iowa Hawkeyes
Big Ten
Teddy Covers
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Sports Betting Podcast 9-7-2012 NFL Every Game on the Board
09.07.2012 10:28 AM
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Friday marked the season's first NFL Every Game on the Board Podcast. Erin Rynning and Alf Musketa joined host Andrew Lange to break down the entire slate from a betting perspective.
Today's segments
Full Show - NFL Every Game on the Board
Erin Rynning - NFL Game on the Board Part I
Alf Musketa - NFL Every Game on the Board Part II
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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Erin Rynning
Alf Musketa
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College Football Gambling Preview: Auburn Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs
09.07.2012 08:34 AM
Alatex Sports
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Submitted by Alatex Sports
Auburn
at
Mississippi State
Brent Crow's Recommendation:
Under
Saturday, 9 am PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener:
Mississippi State -2.5 O/U 48
CRIS Current:
Mississippi State -3 (-105) O/U 47
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Mississippi State -4
Auburn comes in off a tough 26-19 loss to Clemson while Mississippi State had a much easier time against Jackson State, winning 56-9. We should find out much more about Mississippi State this week against a quality opponent, but they should hold up well against the Tigers. Auburn struggled to stop the run against Clemson, allowing 320 yards on 52 attempts, and also gave up 208 yards passing. The only positive with Auburn’s stop unit was in the red zone as they held Clemson to four field goals. They did however allow Clemson to convert on 8-of-17 third downs and pick up 28 first downs. On offense, Auburn ran the ball fairly well with 180 yards, but the passing
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Auburn Tigers
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Brent Crow
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College Football Betting Update: Scheelhaase's status remains up in the air
09.07.2012 08:19 AM
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UPDATE
Illinois
at
Arizona State
-4 O/U 48
Update on Illinois quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase. Scheelhaase (ankle) sat out practice earlier this week but practiced Wednesday and Thursday. Head coach Tim Beckman has yet to commit to his
playing status
. If he doesn't play, the Illini will go with either Reilly O’Toole or Mile Osei. O'Toole attempted 67 passes last year and threw four interceptions.
“He’s much better than he was yesterday,” Beckman said. “He said he felt pretty good. I think any time you have an injury to the ankle, it’s going to progress — and it’s been progressing and we’ll have to make that decision on Thursday after practice.”
“I thought
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Illinois Fighting Illini
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Arizona State Sun Devils
PAC-12
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NFL Betting Notes: Pittsburgh Steelers look to avenge playoff loss to Denver
09.07.2012 08:05 AM
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Pittsburgh
at
Denver
-2 O/U 44.5
The Steelers will try to avenge last year's
playoff loss
to Denver. Defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau admitted that his game plan in that contest wasn't particularly effective, in particular the way they defending the infamous overtime play in which Tim Tebow connected with Demaryius Thomas for an 80-yard touchdown.
“Let me tell you something. Over the years I’ve made a lot of bad calls and I’m man enough to step up and say it when a play ends the game, ends your season, that can’t be a very good call.”
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Pittsburgh Steelers
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College Football Gambling: Michigan tries to prep for Air Force's triple option
09.07.2012 07:54 AM
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Air Force
at
Michigan
-20.5 O/U 61.5
Short turnaround for Michigan as it preps for
Air Force's triple option
attack. Head coach Brady Hoke has some experience against the option having faced Air Force twice (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) and Navy (1-0 SU/ATS) during his time at San Diego State.
"It's mass chaos," said defensive end Craig Roh, a senior who said he hadn't faced an option team since his junior year of high school when he "hated" playing Paradise Valley (Ariz.). "There's three options on every play. It's smoke and mirrors, really."
"They'll never get close," said Hoke, who often coaches the scout teams. "But (receiver) Joe Reynolds is coming down and doing some of the quarterback work, imitating Connor Dietz.
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NFL Handicapping: Preseason woes be damned, Jets plan on throwing the football
09.07.2012 07:41 AM
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Buffalo
at
New York Jets
-3 O/U 38.5
So what if the New York Jets' passing game finished the preseason 56-of-100 for 502 yards and a 1-4 TD-to-INT ratio. Offensive coordinator Tony Sparano says they won't shy away from the
forward pass
starting this week against Buffalo.
“We’re going to throw the ball,” Sparano said. “We’re going to throw the ball our share. It’s not going to be the Wing-T out there.”
“The one-dimensional thing, I don’t think it works as well as when you can do both,” Ryan said. “Certainly, that is what we want to do.”
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New York Jets
Buffalo Bills
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College Football Betting: Maryland looks for revenge against Temple
09.07.2012 07:29 AM
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Maryland
at
Temple
-10 O/U 45
A lot of bettors feel that it is going to be a long season for the Maryland Terrapins. In Week 1, they barely got passed William & Mary with a 7-6 victory. Saturday, they step up in class against a Temple squad that kicked the snot out of the Terps last season in College Park. The 38-7 loss is something Maryland players
vividly remember
.
“We have a real big payback game next weekend,” he offered, unprompted.
“I remember they kicked the hell out of us,” defensive lineman A.J. Francis said. “They beat us like we stole something. It really [ticked] me off. It was one of the worst [butt]-kickings I’ve had in my career.”
“That and N.C. State were my two lowlights of the season as far as memories go,” Hartsfield said. “They kicked our
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Arizona Diamonbacks at San Diego Padres
09.07.2012 07:21 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Arizona
(Skaggs) at
San Diego
(Cashner)
Recommendation: San Diego 5-inning -120
Prior to his trip to the DL, San Diego's Andrew Cashner showcased some of his highly touted ability with 45 strikeouts in 36.2 innings and a .214 batting average against. Cashner suffered a strained right lat but the fact that San Diego will allow him to start as oppose to pitch him out of the bullpen suggests he's close to 100% healthy. Note that he’ll be on a 70-pitch count. Arizona's Tyler Skaggs has made only three starts but some of his numbers show that he's been very fortunate. His ERA sits 2.60 but xFIP is a whopping 5.66. The differential has a lot to do with his miniscule .204 BABIP and whopping 90.4% left on-base. Small sample and Skaggs has some upside, but from a pure stuff standpoint, tonight's matchup favors Cashner. With Cashner not expected to go deep into this game, let's look to support him and San Diego on the 5-inning line.
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Andrew Lange
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September
6
College Football Betting Preview: Washington Huskies at LSU Tigers
09.06.2012 02:40 PM
ICC
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Submitted by ICC
Washington
at
LSU
Ian Cameron's Recommendation:
Over
Saturday, 4 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener:
LSU -23 O/U 56
CRIS Current:
LSU -24 O/U 53
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
LSU -23.5
Washington makes a rare trip to the East Coast to play LSU in a big non-conference clash on Saturday night on ESPN. The last meeting between these teams took place in 2009 in Seattle with LSU winning 31-23.
The Washington offense enters this game off a mediocre performance in Week 1’s win over San Diego State. Quarterback Keith Price and the offense saw multiple drives stall in Aztecs territory and the offense only accounted for 14 of the team's 21 points. They'll be facing a vaunted LSU defense but maybe not one that was adequately tested by North Texas last week. I think the door is open for Washington to have at least a decent showing on offense as one of the few weaknesses defensively for the Tigers is their
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Washington Huskies
PAC-12
LSU Tigers
SEC
Ian Cameron
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College Football Betting Trends: First-year head coaches go 12-12 ATS in Week 1
09.06.2012 02:02 PM
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A look at the Week 1 results for first-year college football head coaches. Overall, they went 13-12 SU and 12-12 ATS (one game wasn't lined). Eliminate games vs. FCS competition (7-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) and our group was 6-10 SU and 8-8 ATS. Note that there were two first-year HC vs. first-year HC matchups: Arizona vs. Toledo and Rutgers vs. Tulane.
Week 1 Resuts for First-Year College Football Head Coaches
School
2012 Coach
SU
ATS
Akron
Terry Bowden
Loss
Loss
Arizona
Rich Rodriguez
Win
Loss
Arizona State
Todd Graham
Win
Win
Arkansas State
Gus Malzahn
Loss
Win
Colorado State
Jim McElwain
Win
Win
Florida Atlantic
Carl Pelini
Win
Loss
Fresno State
Tim DeRuyter
Win
Win
Hawaii
Norm Chow
Loss
Win
Houston
Tony Levine
Loss
Loss
Illinois
Tim Beckman
Win
Win
Kansas
Charlie Weis
Win
Loss
Memphis
Justin Fuente
Loss
Loss
New Mexico
Bob Davie
Win
N/L
North Carolina
Larry Fedora
Win
Win
Ohio State
Urban Meyer
Win
Win
Ole Miss
Hugh Freeze
Win
Win
Penn State
Bill O'Brien
Loss
Loss
Pittsburgh
Paul Chryst
Loss
Loss
Rutgers
Kyle Flood
Win
Loss
Southern Miss
Ellis Johnson
Loss
Loss
Texas A&M
Kevin Sumlin
DNP
DNP
Toledo
Matt Campbell
Loss
Win
Tulane
Curtis Johnson
Loss
Win
UAB
Garrick McGee
Loss
Loss
UCLA
Jim L. Mora
Win
Win
Washington State
Mike Leach
Loss
Loss
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NFL Handicapping: Houston Texans want to push pace early
09.06.2012 11:57 AM
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Miami
at
Houston
-12 O/U 42.5
Before Matt Schaub got hurt, the Houston Texans made a habit of getting on the board early. Offensive coordinator Rick Dennison says the team will be looking for more of that this season by
going up-tempo early
.
"We want to get up and down, get ready to go and really set the tempo of the game," Dennison said. "Early on it's tempo, it's ‘set the pace.'"
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College Football Gambling: Central Michigan looks to play spoiler vs. Michigan State
09.06.2012 11:42 AM
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Michigan State
-20 at
Central Michigan
O/U 48
Central Michigan's Kelly/Shorts Stadium is expected to be
sold out
for Saturday's matchup against Michigan State. This Chippewas pulled off the upset in East Lansing back in 2009 but last year's meeting was all Spartans as the cruised to a 45-7 win as 21.5-point chalk. It's an awful spot for MSU after beating Boise State to open the year with Notre Dame on deck.
“There is a lot of excitement from our fan base,” Central Michigan coach Dan Enos said. “I’m very familiar with their program. … It’s going to be a big challenge. There is a lot of excitement on campus. Someone told me it’s the biggest event on campus, maybe ever.”
“Everyone is excited,” Enos said. “Then I watched the video, and I’m not
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Sports Betting Podcast 9-6-2012 College Football Every Game on the Board
09.06.2012 10:44 AM
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We're back for Week 2 of our College Football Every Game on the Board Podcast. Teddy Covers, Ian Cameron and Rob Veno joined host Andrew Lange to break down the entire slate from a betting perspective.
Today's segments
Full Show - College Football Every Game on the Board
Rob Veno - College Football Every Game on the Board Part I
Ian Cameron - College Football Every Game on the Board Part II
Teddy Covers - College Football Every Game on the Board Part III
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
Tags:
College Football
Teddy Covers
Ian Cameron
Rob Veno
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College Football Betting: Oregon's totals continue to climb, cash tickets
09.06.2012 08:22 AM
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Fresno State
at
Oregon
-35 O/U 76.5
Under Chip Kelly, Oregon has gone OVER the total in 68% of its games but this weekend's total against Fresno State is bordering on comical. The 76.6 (it opened 73.5, now 77 at Pinnacle, 78 at BetOnline) will mark the highest total under Kelly's watch. In Week 1, the Ducks and Arkansas State eclipsed 70 by three touchdowns. And Kelly wasn't really satisfied with his
offense's performance
.
2012: 1-0 O/U Highest Total 76.5
2011: 10-4 O/U Highest Total 75.5
2010: 8-5 O/U Highest Total 73.5
2009: 9-4 O/U Highest Total 63
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Oregon Ducks
PAC-12
Fresno State Bulldogs
Mountain West
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A must have for football bettors: Sportsmemo's NCAA and NFL team pages
09.06.2012 07:38 AM
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Don't forget to bookmark Sportsmemo's
College
and
Pro
Football team pages. They include new links, archived blogs, and pointspread/stat logs dating back to 2009. It is also home to Brent Crow's famed College Football ACCU-Stats. You can subscribe to receive email notifications of new content posted about specific teams. Everything you need to beat the books this season is at Sportsmemo!
Pittsburgh Steelers
USC Trojans
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NFL Gambling Preview: New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans
09.06.2012 07:25 AM
Alf Musketa
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Submitted by Alf Musketa
New England
at
Tennessee
Alf Musketa's Recommendation:
New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New England -6.5 O/U 47.5
CRIS Current:
New England -5 O/U 47
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
New England -6
There is a popular trend making the rounds online involving betting against the losing Super Bowl team in Week 1. I'm not buying that garbage; it’s ancient history. It makes no sense to me when you have different personnel versus a team that they have game planned against for months and somehow the hangover effect will come into play ATS. Not a chance. The Giants just proved how much these trends are worth on opening night where the winning Super Bowl team was 8-0 SU the following season in Week 1…now it's 8-1.
The Patriots have yet to unleash their offense with receivers Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd and their two stellar tight ends all together on the field with Tom Brady. The
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Tennessee Titans
Alf Musketa
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Cowboy beat Giants outright, Mayweather cashes in
09.06.2012 07:08 AM
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OK, this Floyd Mayweather betting thing is getting out of control. As far as well can tell there was no confirmation that Mayweather bet $3 million on Michigan +14 but if said bet were actually made said bet would have obviously lost and we know Mayweather never loses. Last night, Mayweather Tweeted a picture of a $200K
second half bet
on the Cowboys at +1.5. (He could of grabbed +2 offshore). It won. Hooray.
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College Football Gambling: Inexperienced offensive lines struggle in Week 1
09.06.2012 06:30 AM
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Taking a look at how some of the least experienced offensive lines performed in Week 1 based on Phil Steele's career starts. Overall, the results weren't great at 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS, though of the nine, only three were favored. But outside of Hawaii (at USC), there were no significant mismatches based on the closing odds. And in reality, with the exception of Northern Illinois’ near upset of Iowa, no team on the list had a truly strong showing. Only three of the nine teams topped 4.0 yards per carry and of the three favorites (see * on chart), none topped 100 yards. All in all, nothing to bet blindly (it was only one game) but something to keep an eye on.
Lowest Career Offensive Line Starts - Week 1 Betting Results
Team
Returning Starts
Week 1 SU
Week 1 ATS
Rush YPG (YPC)
Sacks Allowed
Rice
15
Loss
Loss
174 (3.6)
7
UAB
17
Loss
Loss
134 (3.0)
2
Penn State*
17
Loss
Loss
92 (4.2)
0
Virginia Tech*
17
Win
Loss
96 (2.7)
2
Wake Forest*
19
Win
Loss
98 (2.6)
1
Hawaii
20
Loss
Win
56 (1.8)
5
Northern Illinois
24
Loss
Win
147 (4.1)
2
SMU
24
Loss
Loss
145 (5.0)
0
Toledo
26
Loss
Win
161 (3.4)
2
TCU
28
DNP
DNP
-
-
Results
2-7
3-6
122.5 (3.3)
21
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September
8
September
5
NFL by Rob Veno
NFL by Teddy Covers
NCAAF by Rob Veno
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Schedule Sheet
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NFL Team Pages
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MLB Team Pages
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