Arizona at New England -13.5 O/U 48.5

A quick look at Arizona's history in the Eastern Time Zone. Since 2007, the Cardinals are 6-13 SU, 10-9 ATS, and 11-8 O/U. They are 6-2 ATS when catching +7 or more.

Arizona Cardinals Betting Results in Eastern Time Zone

Year Opponent SU Score ATS O/U 2011 at Cincinnati Loss 16-23 Loss +4.5 U 41 2011 at Philadelphia Win 21-17 Win +13.5 U 47 2011 at Baltimore Loss 27-30 Win +12 O 43 2011 at Washington Loss 21-22 Win +4.5 U 44.5 2010 at Carolina Loss 12-19 Loss +2.5 U 37.5 2010 at Atlanta Loss 7-41 Loss +7 O 43 2009 at Detroit Win 31-24 Loss -14 O 46.5 2009 at N.Y. Giants Win 24-17 Win +9 U 46.5 2009 at Jacksonville Win 31-17 Win +3 O 44 2008 at Carolina Win 33-13 Win +10 U 49.5 2008 at New England Loss 7-47 Loss +9 O 43.5 2008 at Philadelphia Loss 20-48 Loss +3 O 48.5 2008 at Carolina Loss 23-27 Win +5 O 43 2008 at N.Y. Jets Loss 35-56 Loss +1 O 43.5 2008 at Washington Loss 17-24 Loss +3 U 43.5 2007 at Cincinnati Win 35-27 Win +3 O 49.5 2007 at Tampa Bay Loss 10-17 Loss +3.5 U 39 2007 at Washington Loss 19-21 Win +9 O 35 2007 at Baltimore Loss 23-26 Win +7 O 35.5 Results   6-13 10-9 11-8

Oakland -2.5 at Miami O/U 39.5

A quick look at Oakland's history in the Eastern Time Zone. Since 2007, the Raiders are 3-10 SU, 6-7 ATS, and 10-3 O/U -- not once were they favored. Note that last year, Oakland also traveled to the East Coast on short rest after a Monday Night Football game. They lost at Buffalo, 38-35 but covered the +3.5.

Oakland Raiders Betting Result in Eastern Time Zone

Year Opponent SU Score ATS O/U 2011 at Buffalo Loss 35-38 Win +3.5 O 40.5 2011 at Miami Loss 14-34 Loss +3.5 O 43 2010 at Jacksonville Loss 31-38 Loss +3.5 O 41 2010 at Pittsburgh Loss 3-35 Loss +9 U 41 2009 at Cleveland Loss 9-23 Loss +3 U 37 2009 at Pittsburgh Win 27-24 Win +14.5 O 37 2009 at NY Giants Loss 7-44 Loss +15.5 O 38 2008 at Tampa Bay Win 31-24 Win +11 O 39 2008 at Miami Loss 15-17 Win +10 U 38 2008 at Baltimore Loss 10-29 Loss +9 O 34.5 2008 at Buffalo Loss 23-24 Win +10 O 37 2007 at Jacksonville Loss 11-49 Loss +14 O 40 2007 at Miami Win 35-17 Win +3.5 O 40 Results   3-10 6-7 10-3

By the betting numbers...NFL Week 1 (see results below). Note that we will be using CRIS's opening and closing lines throughout the season.

Based on closing lines…

Home teams had a small edge at 8-7-1 ATS.

Underdog had a small edge at 8-7-1 ATS.

Games lined at a touchdown or more were split 3-3 ATS.

Totals went 9-7 O/U.

Based on the opening and closing lines, the market was "correct" six times but "incorrect" seven times. "Correct" meaning if a game opened -3 and closed -4 and the favorite won by 7, the market was “correct.” If a game opened -3 and closed -4 and the favorite lost outright, the market was obviously "incorrect." In three games, the game opened and closed at the same number.
 
Parlay combo breakdown (15 games)
Favorite-Over: 5
Favorite-Under: 2
Underdog-Over: 3
Underdog-Under: 5

Note that we did not include pick ‘em lines and pushes for our parlay combos.

2012 NFL Week 1 Betting Recap

Away Team Home Team Open Close Final ATS Close O/U Close Dallas NY Giants NYG -3 (-124) NYG -3.5 DAL 24, NYG 17 Underdog Under 45.5 Indianapolis Chicago CHI -10 CHI -10 IND 41, IND 21 Favorite Over 42 Philadelphia Cleveland PHI -8.5 PHI -8.5 PHI 17, CLE 16 Underdog Under 42.5 Buffalo NY Jets NYJ -4.5 NYJ -3 (-105) NYJ 48, BUF 28 Favorite Over 39 Washington New Orleans NO -9.5 NO -8 WAS 40, NO 32 Underdog Over 50 New England Tennessee NE -6.5 NE -5 NE 34, TEN 13 Favorite Under 48 Jacksonville Minnesota MIN -4.5 MIN -3 (-125) MIN 26, JAX 23 OT Push Over 38 Miami Houston HOU -7 HOU -13 HOU 30, MIA 10 Favorite Under 41.5 St. Louis Detroit DET -9 DET -8 DET 27, STL 23 Underdog Over 46 Atlanta Kansas City ATL -1 ATL -2 ATL 40, KC 24 Favorite Over 43 San Francisco Green Bay GB -6.5 GB -6 SF 30, GB 22 Underdog Over 47 Carolina Tampa Bay CAR -3 CAR -3 TB 16, CAR 10 Underdog Under 45.5 Seattle Arizona ARI -1.5 SEA -3 (+105) ARI 20, SEA 16 Underdog Under 41 Pittsburgh Denver DEN -2 DEN -3 (+110) DEN 31, PIT 19 Favorite Over 45 Cincinnati Baltimore BAL -6.5 BAL -7 CIN 44, BAL 13 Favorite Over 43 San Diego Oakland OAK pk OAK -1 SD 22, OAK 14 Underdog Under 47.5

San Diego at Oakland -1 O/U 47

Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers mentioned on today's Podcast that we should look into San Diego head coach Norv Turner's track record as a head coach in Week 1. Nice call TC. In his three stops, Turner is 6-8 straight up and a dismal 4-10 against the spread.

P.S. Week 2 ain't much better (5-9 SU, 5-8-1 ATS)

Norv Turner Betting Results as a Head Coach in Week 1

Year Team Week 1 SU Week 1 ATS 1994 Washington Loss Loss 1995 Washington Win Win 1996 Washington Loss Loss 1997 Washington Win Win 1998 Washington Loss Loss 1999 Washington Loss Loss 2000 Washington Win Loss 2004 Oakland Loss Win 2005 Oakland Loss Loss 2007 San Diego Win Win 2008 San Diego Loss Loss 2009 San Diego Win Loss 2010 San Diego Loss Loss 2011 San Diego Win Loss Results   6-8 4-10

  

In case you've been living under a rock, all bets on last weekend's infamous Florida State-Savannah State game were refunded in Las Vegas due to the contest falling short of 55 minutes. The Seminoles, who led 48-0 at the break, did however cover the -45.5 first half line (LVH).

Updated results for first-year head college football head coaches (21-27 SU, 21-26 ATS). Coaches at BCS conference schools are 15-10 SU, 11-14 ATS.

2012 College Football First-Year Head Coach Betting Results as of 9/10

School 1st Year Coach SU ATS Akron Terry Bowden 0-2 1-1 Arizona Rich Rodriguez 1-1 1-1 Arizona State Todd Graham 2-0 2-0 Arkansas State Gus Malzahn 1-1 1-1 Colorado State Jim McElwain 1-1 1-1 Florida Atlantic Carl Pelini 1-1 0-2 Fresno State Tim DeRuyter 1-1 2-0 Hawaii Norm Chow 0-1 1-0 Houston Tony Levine 0-2 0-2 Illinois Tim Beckman 1-1 1-1 Kansas Charlie Weis 1-1 0-2 Memphis Justin Fuente 0-2 1-1 New Mexico Bob Davie 1-1 0-1 North Carolina Larry Fedora 1-1 1-1 Ohio State Urban Meyer 2-0 1-1 Ole Miss Hugh Freeze 2-0 2-0 Penn State Bill O'Brien 0-2 1-1 Pittsburgh Paul Chryst 0-2 0-2 Rutgers Kyle Flood 2-0 0-2 Southern Miss Ellis Johnson 0-1 0-1 Texas A&M Kevin Sumlin 0-1 0-1 Toledo Matt Campbell 1-1 2-0 Tulane Curtis Johnson 0-2 1-1 UAB Garrick McGee 0-1 0-1 UCLA Jim L. Mora 2-0 2-0 Washington State Mike Leach 1-1 0-2 Results   21-27 21-26

Proof that even the BEST bettors suffer the occasional loss.

If you happen to be in the greater Tallahassee area on October 12, you can pop in for a seminar on Corruption, Gambling, and Manipulation in Sports hosted by Florida State. There will be a handful of panelists including Sean Patrick Griffin, author of Gaming the Game: The Story Behind the NBA Betting Scandal and the Gambler Who Made It Happen.  According to the “syllabus” it doesn’t look like anyone from the gambling industry (maybe an oddsmaker or actual bettor?) will speak which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense considering the topic. But, someone who is commonly referred to as a “sports conspiracy theorist” will. Sounds like the audience is going to get plenty of non-biased opinions.

By the betting numbers...College Football Week 2 (see results below). Note that we will be using CRIS's opening and closing lines throughout the season. We do not include games involving FCS teams.

Based on closing lines…

Road teams were the strongest side bet at 23-20 ATS (44-34 ATS YTD).

There were two neutral site games. Underdogs (Syracuse and UL-Monroe) went 2-0 ATS.

Underdogs held a slight edge at 22-20 ATS (44-38 ATS YTD). Two games closed as pick ‘em (South Florida/Nevada and Florida/Texas A&M) while one game pushed (NC State -3 vs. UConn).

Double-digits spreads went the way of the underdogs at 15-8 ATS (27-20 ATS YTD).

Totals went 21-23-1 Over/Under (41-44-1 YTD).

Beating the Market: If you bet the opening number on a team that moved three points or more based on the closing line (i.e. Virginia -7) you went: 2-7 ATS (8-14 ATS YTD)

Chasing the Market: If you bet the closing number on a team that moved three points or more (i.e. Virginia -10) you went: 2-7 ATS (7-15 ATS YTD).

Based on the opening and closing lines, the market was "correct" 20 times but "incorrect" 18 times. "Correct" meaning if a game opened -3 and closed -4 and the favorite won by 7, the market was “correct.” If a game opened -3 and closed -4 and the favorite lost outright, the market was obviously "incorrect." Note that in seven games, the game opened and closed at the same number.
 
Parlay combo breakdown (40 games) (79 games YTD)
Favorite-Over: 10 (24 YTD)
Favorite-Under: 9 (13 YTD)
Underdog-Over: 9 (15 YTD)
Underdog-Under: 12 (29 YTD)

Note that we did not include pick ‘em lines and pushes for our parlay combos.

2012 College Football Week 2 Betting Recap

Away Team Home Team Open Close Final ATS O/U Close Pittsburgh Cincinnati CIN -2.5 CIN -4.5 CIN 34, PIT 10 Favorite Under 51 Utah Utah State UTAH -7 UTAH -7 USU 27, UT 20 OT Underdog Under 50.5 Penn State Virginia UVA -7 UVA -10 UVA 17, PSU 16 Underdog Under 48 Indiana Massachusetts IND -12.5 IND -14 IND 45, MASS 6 Favorite Over 48.5 Air Force Michigan MICH -21.5 MICH -21.5 MICH 31, AFA 25 Underdog Under 58.5 New Mexico State Ohio OU -19.5 OU -21 OHIO 51, NMSU 24 Favorite Over 58.5 Kent State Kentucky UK -7 UK -6 KY 47, KENT 14 Favorite Over 46.5 Central Florida Ohio State OSU -17 OSU -15.5 OSU 31, UCF 16 Underdog Over 46.5 Idaho Bowling Green BG -12 BG -17 BG 21, IDA 13 Underdog Under 49.5 Ball State Clemson CLE -25.5 CLE -27 CLE 52, BSU 27 Underdog Over 67 Rice Kansas KAN -9 KAN -12.5 RICE 25, KAN 24 Underdog Under 62.5 Toledo Wyoming WYO -1 WYO -3.5 TOL 34, WYO 31 Underdog Over 58.5 North Carolina Wake Forest UNC -6.5 UNC -10 WAKE 28, UNC 27 Underdog Under 58.5 Georgia Missouri UGA -3 UGA -1 UGA 41, MIZZ 20 Favorite Over 52.5 Miami (FL) Kansas State KSU -7 KSU -7 KSU 52, MIA 13 Favorite Over 58 Michigan State Central Michigan MSU -22 MSU -17.5 MSU 41, CMU 7 Favorite Push 48 USC Syracuse* USC -27 USC -24.5 USC 42, SYR 29 Underdog Over 62 Purdue Notre Dame ND -15 ND -15 ND 20, PUR 17 Underdog Under 53 South Florida Nevada NEV pk NEV pk USF 32, NEV 31 N/A Over 57 Wisconsin Oregon State WIS -8 WIS -6 OSU 10, WIS 7 Underdog Under 49 Fresno State Oregon ORE -35.5 ORE -35 ORE 42, FSU 25 Underdog Under 75.5 East Carolina South Carolina SC -23.5 SC -21 SC 48, ECU 10 Favorite Over 50 Iowa State Iowa IOWA -4.5 IOWA -3.5 ISU 9, IOWA 6 Underdog Under 48.5 Washington LSU LSU -23 LSU -22.5 LSU 41, WASH 3 Favorite Under 53 UTEP Mississippi MISS -6 MISS -8 MISS 28, UTEP 10 Favorite Under 53 Auburn Mississippi State MSU -2.5 MSU -3 MSU 28, AUB 10 Favorite Under 48.5 Texas Tech Texas State TTU -17.5 TTU -20 TTU 58, TSU 10 Favorite Over 60 Maryland Temple TEMP -10 TEM -7.5 MARY 36, TEM 27 Underdog Over 43.5 New Mexico Texas TEX -37 TEX -39 TEX 45, UNM 0 Favorite Under 53 Florida Texas A&M FLA -1 TXAM pk FLA 20, TXAM 17 N/A Under 49.5 Louisiana Tech Houston HOU -2.5 LT -3 LT 56, HOU 49 Favorite Over 58.5 Nebraska UCLA NEB -4 NEB -3.5 UCLA 36, NEB 30 Underdog Over 58 Army San Diego State SDSU -6 SDSU -5.5 SDSU 42, ARMY 7 Favorite Under 50 NC State Connecticut NCST -1 NCST -3 NCST 10, UCONN 7 Push Under 48 Tulane Tulsa TULS -25 TULS -22 TULS 45, TULA 10 Favorite Under 57 Vanderbilt Northwestern VAN -3 VAN -3 NW 23, VAN 13 Underdog Under 54.5 Duke Stanford STAN -14 STAN -16 STAN 50, DUKE 13 Favorite Over 55 Oklahoma State Arizona OSU -11 OSU -10 AZ 59, OSU 38 Underdog Over 70 Illinois Arizona State ASU -2 ASU -6 ASU 45, ILL 14 Favorite Over 47 Akron Florida Intl FIU -23 FIU -24.5 FIU 41, AKR 38 OT Underdog Over 58 UL-Lafayette Troy TROY -1 ULL -1.5 ULL 37, TROY 24 Favorite Under 62 Florida Atlantic Middle Tennessee MTSU -7 MTSU -6.5 MTSU 31, FAU 17 Favorite Under 49 Memphis Arkansas State ASU -19.5 ASU -23.5 ASU 33, MEM 28 Underdog Over 60 Louisiana-Monroe Arkansas* ARK -28 ARK -30 ULM 34, ARK 31 OT Underdog Over 61 Western Kentucky Alabama ALA -38 ALA -38 ALA 35, WKU 0 Underdog Under 52