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College Football ATS Analysis: A quick look at Week 3 line moves
09.13.2012 02:53 PM
Printer Friendly
We mentioned in our
College Football Betting Recap
earlier this week that big lines moves haven't fared well this season. Using CRIS's lines, if you bet the opener on games that moved three points or more you went 8-14 ATS (7-15 w/ closing line). We've already seen a handful of significant moves this week – some of which injury related like Alabama/Arkansas and Florida/Tennessee.
CRIS Opener/CRIS Current
Florida State opened -25 vs. Wake Forest...now -28
UConn opened pk at Maryland...now -3 (-105)
Alabama opened -15.5 at Arkansas...now -20
Bowling Green opened +6.5 at Toledo...now +3.5
Tennessee opened pk vs. Florida...now -3
Florida Atlantic opened +44.5 at Georgia...now +41.5
Tags:
College Football
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If coaches could bet, Brady Hoke would probably grab some UMass +45.5
09.13.2012 12:31 PM
Printer Friendly
Massachusetts
at
Michigan
-45.5 O/U 54
Michigan head coach Brady Hoke just gave out a
free play
. Bet UMass +45.5.
"That’s ridiculous,” he said this morning, during his weekly appearance on the “Stoney and Bill Show” on WXYT-FM (97.1). “All you’ve got to do is go back two years, and it was 42-37 here in Ann Arbor. That gets your attention. The one thing we try to do every week: It’s about us, how we prepare on a weekly basis, how we practice. When you look at it that way, and that’s the way we look at it every week, we’re getting ready to get into the Big Ten schedule soon. We’ve got a lot of improvement we’ve got to do.”
Tags:
College Football
UMass Minutemen
MAC
Michigan Wolverines
Big Ten
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NFL Handicapping: Arizona Cardinals will start Kolb vs. New England
09.13.2012 12:14 PM
Printer Friendly
Arizona
at
New England
-13.5 O/U 48.5
The Arizona Cardinals said that Kevin Kolb will start Sunday's game at New England. According to
ESPN
, this information came from "league sources" and team president Michael Bidwell, not head coach Ken Whisenhunt. Maybe Whisenhunt is trying to do his best Bill Belichick impression or maybe he spotted Kolb's horrific track record on the road (3-6, 64.8 rating, 6 TDs, 10 INTs) and wants to weigh all of his options. The problem is he doesn't have many with John Skelton out because of an ankle injury.
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Arizona Cardinals
New England Patriots
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NFL Gambling Preview: New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
09.13.2012 11:20 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
New Orleans
at
Carolina
Teddy Covers' Recommendation:
Lean towards Over
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
New Orleans -3 (+101) O/U 51
CRIS Current:
New Orleans -3 O/U 51
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
New Orleans -3.5
Not much went right for either of these two teams in their season opener. The Saints defense was picked apart by a rookie QB making his first NFL start; giving up 40 points and 464 yards (a whopping 6.5 yards per snap), unable to stop the run or the pass in Steve Spagnuolo’s first game as the coordinator. Meanwhile, Drew Brees completed less than half of his pass attempts while throwing a pair of interceptions, after throwing only four INTs in his final eight regular season games last year. The Saints gave up on the run rather quickly in a game they trailed from the get-go, with Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram combining for only 32 yards on ten rushing attempts.
Carolina, too, was gashed by
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New Orleans Saints
Carolina Panthers
Teddy Covers
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Sports Betting Podcast 9-13-2012 College Football Every Game on the Board
09.13.2012 11:10 AM
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Thursday marked Week 3 of our College Football Every Game on the Board Podcast. Teddy Covers, Ian Cameron and Rob Veno joined host Andrew Lange to break down the entire slate from a betting perspective.
Today's segments
Full Show - College Football Every Game on the Board
Teddy Covers - College Football Every Game on the Board Part I
Rob Veno - College Football Every Game on the Board Part II
Ian Cameron - College Football Every Game on the Board Part III
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
Tags:
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Teddy Covers
Ian Cameron
Rob Veno
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College Football Betting: Run-first frosh QB gets starting nod for Southern Miss
09.13.2012 07:48 AM
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East Carolina
at
Southern Miss
-7 O/U 55
Southern Miss announced that freshman
Anthony Alford will start
Saturday's contest against East Carolina. Alford came off the bench in Week 1's loss at Nebraska and produced 84 yards on the ground. He was however only 1-of-5 for 6 yards passing. East Carolina has done a decent job at stopping the run, allowing 125 ypg and 3.8 ypc its first two games against Appalachian State and South Carolina. Where the Pirates have struggled is against the pass (348.5 ypg, 5 TDs, 1 INT).
"Because I started getting more reps (in practice last week), I started getting into more of a rhythm," Alford said. "I'm excited to get the chance to lead the offense. I've got a lot of confidence in the O-line. I just need to make the right call and go with it."
"Anthony is a threat with the
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Southern Miss Golden Eagles
East Carolina Pirates
C-USA
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NFL Handicapping: Betting markets take out key number of 6 with Bears-Packers
09.13.2012 07:24 AM
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Chicago
at
Green Bay
-5 O/U 51.5
We’ve seen a fair amount of money come in on Chicago for tonight's matchup at Green Bay. Offshore, all of the 6's have been taken out – still some left in Vegas (Wynn, Station). The total has crept up from an opener of 50 (CRIS) to 51.5. The Packers have won four straight in the series and covered seven of the last nine. Last year's second meeting snapped an eight-game run of UNDERS.
Chicago Bears-Green Bay Packers Betting History 2008-11
Year
Score
ATS
O/U
2011
GB 35, CHI 21
Green Bay -13
Over 41.5
2011
GB 27, CHI 17
Green Bay -4
Under 45.5
2010
GB 21, CHI 14
Green Bay -3.5
Under 42
2010
GB 10, CHI 3
Chicago +11
Under 43.5
2010
CHI 20, GB 17
Chicago +3
Under 45.5
2009
GB 21, CHI 14
Green Bay -4
Under 41
2009
GB 21, CHI 15
Green Bay -3.5
Under 47
2008
CHI 20, GB 17 OT
Green Bay +4
Under 40
2008
GB 37, CHI 3
Green Bay -3.5
Under 43
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College Football Gambling: Nebraska expected to make defensive changes
09.13.2012 06:59 AM
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Arkansas State
at
Nebraska
-24.5 O/U 67
Let's first give credit where credit is due. UCLA's offense has been impressive. Putting up 653 yards of total offense on any FBS school shows you have some talent. That being said, Nebraska's defense was awful. Bottom line is the Cornhuskers made the Bruins look like the Ducks. And it looks as if the main culprit was a
lack of speed
. Starting defensive tackle Chase Rome left the team following the loss and defensive coordinator John Papuchis hinted there may be some lineup changes for Saturday's game against Arkansas State.
"Team speed has been a little bit lacking over the first couple games, so we're going to try to get some of our faster guys on the field and see how that works this week," Papuchis said. "Everybody is in the equation. If we
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Nebraska Cornhuskers
Big Ten
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Sun Belt
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College Football Betting: Illinois' defense had no clue what is was doing vs. Arizona State
09.13.2012 06:29 AM
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Ron Zook may no longer physicallly be the head coach of the University of Illinois, but it appears that his spirit is alive and well. "Widespread confusion" is being used to describe the Illini's
defensive performance
in last week's 45-14 loss at Arizona State. Part of the credit should probably go to ASU and first-year head coach Todd Graham who had his offense pushing the tempo for much of the game. Note that under defensive coordinator Vic Koenning, who now holds the same position at North Carolina, Illinois held nine opponents to 21 points or less and didn't allow more than 35 points in a single game last year.
“We didn’t communicate well where everyone got the right calls. Some guys were running different things from guys opposite them and when we’re not all on the same page, it looks bad. There were a lot of communications breakdowns between guys on defense and our coaches.”
“On that first drive, I thought they were going pretty fast,” Spence
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Illinois Fighting Illini
Big Ten
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And now they are bribing semi-pro soccer players to throw games
09.13.2012 06:05 AM
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We'll start this off by saying we had absolutely no idea there were betting markets for semi-pro Canadian soccer. That is almost like LVH hanging a line on a Bishop Gorman JV basketball game. The reason we know there are betting markets on semi-pro Canadian soccer is because reports of
match-fixing
have recently surfaced.
"I remember my goal, it was the free kick for us," said Aggouram. "One of our players took the free kick, and then the goalie, he didn't punch it away, he punched it in front of the net, and then I took the rebound."
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