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College Football ATS Analysis: Golden Nugget's GOY vs. CRIS Week 4
09.17.2012 07:50 AM
Printer Friendly
Checking in with the college football betting markets as we compare the Golden Nugget's Games of the Year from early June vs. CRIS's current numbers. The opinion on a number of these teams has changed dramatically. Florida State hasn't exactly been challenged, outscoring its first three opponents 176-3. The Seminoles lost at Clemson last year 35-30 as 2.5-point underdogs yet are as high as -14 for Saturday's matchup. USC's stock took a hit after losing at Stanford 21-14. The Trojans are 0-3 ATS and ranked 62nd nationally in total defense. Bettors don't want any part of Auburn after an 0-3 ATS start. They needed overtime to beat UL-Monroe at home last weekend. And Notre Dame is back in the good graces of the betting markets after racking up a 20-3 win at Michigan State. The Irish have been bet up to as high a -7 (ev) vs. Michigan.
2012 Week 4 College Football Lines Golden Nugget GOY vs. CRIS
Away
Home
Golden Nugget
CRIS Opener/Current
Kansas State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma -16
Oklahoma -14.5/-14
Michigan
Notre Dame
Notre Dame -1
Notre Dame -5/-6.5
LSU
Auburn
LSU -10.5
LSU -17.5/-18.5
Clemson
Florida State
Florida State -8
Florida State -12/-14
Missouri
South Carolina
South Carolina -5
South Carolina -9.5/-9.5
California
USC
USC -24
USC -17/-16
Tags:
College Football
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College Football Betting: Missouri's Franklin and South Carolina's Shaw questionable
09.17.2012 07:23 AM
Printer Friendly
Missouri
at
South Carolina
-10
Two questionable quarterbacks for this weekend's Missouri-South Carolina game. On Friday we reported rumors that Mizzou's James Franklin (shoulder) would miss Saturday's contest against Arizona State. The Tigers opened -8.5 and fell as low as -3. Franklin did not play but Missouri ended up winning 24-20 (hello middle!). Head coach Gary Pinkel in a round-about way
called Franklin soft
. As for South Carolina, Connor Shaw (shoulder) was banged up again in last week's win over UAB. If he's unable to go,
Dylan Thompson will start
. Thompson threw for 333 yards and three touchdowns in the win.
"If he can throw it down the field without any pain, then he'll start Saturday night,"
Read more
Tags:
College Football
Missouri Tigers
South Carolina Gamecocks
SEC
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: A look at second-year NFL quarterbacks and their teams
09.17.2012 06:10 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Last week, I focused on the five rookie starting quarterbacks behind center on opening day. This Sunday, continuing the theme, I spent the afternoon watching the five quarterbacks drafted in the first 35 picks last year, all of whom are now starters. I tried to evaluate each QB within the context of his team – they can't be successful without the complimentary pieces of the equation surrounding them, both on offense and on defense. Here are my thoughts:
Cincinnati Bengals
– Andy Dalton was the only rookie QB to lead his team to the playoffs last year, and he’s definitely right there with Cam Newton as the best of the 2011 draft class right now. He’s got great footwork in the pocket; nimble on his feet while sidestepping pressure. And when we consider how much pressure he was under – the Bengals injury riddled line was really struggling unable to consistently run or pass block – Dalton’s performance was even that much more impressive.
This team is loaded with WR talent; not just AJ Green, although Green is really developing into a Top 10 NFL receiver. Armon Binns made plays all over the field today;
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Sportsmemo's College Football Week 3 Betting Recap
09.17.2012 05:48 AM
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By the betting numbers...College Football Week 3 (see results below). Note that we use CRIS's opening and closing lines. We do not include games involving FCS teams.
Based on closing lines…
Home teams were the strongest side bet at 27-19 ATS (Road teams are 63-61 ATS YTD).
Underdogs and favorites split at 23-23 (Underdogs are 67-61 ATS YTD). One game pushed (UConn -3 at Maryland).
Double-digits spreads went the way of the favorites at 16-12 ATS (DD underdogs are 39-36 ATS YTD).
Totals went 27-19-1 Over/Under (68-63-2 YTD).
Beating the Market: If you bet the opening number on a team that moved three points or more based on the closing line (i.e. UConn pk) you went: 7-2 ATS (15-16 ATS YTD)
Chasing the Market: If you bet the closing number on a team that moved three points or more (i.e. UConn -3) you went: 6-2-1 ATS (13-17-1 ATS YTD).
Based on the opening and closing lines, the market was "correct" 23 times but "incorrect" 16 times. "Correct" meaning if a game opened -3 and closed -4 and the favorite won by 7, the market was “correct.” If a game opened -3 and closed -4 and the favorite lost outright, the market was obviously "incorrect." Note that in eight games, the game opened and closed at the same number.
Parlay combo breakdown (45 games) (124 games YTD)
Favorite-Over: 14 (38 YTD)
Favorite-Under: 9 (22 YTD)
Underdog-Over: 12 (27 YTD)
Underdog-Under: 10 (39 YTD)
Note that we did not include pick ‘em lines and pushes in our parlay combos.
2012 College Football Week 3 Betting Recap
Away Team
Home Team
Open
Close
Final
ATS
O/U Close
Rutgers
South Florida
USF -9.5
USF -8
RUT 23, USF 13
Underdog
Under 44.5
Washington State
UNLV
WSU -10.5
WSU -9.5
WSU 35, UNLV 27
Underdog
Over 55.5
Navy
Penn State
PSU -6.5
PSU -6.5
PSU 34, NAVY 7
Favorite
Under 48
Massachusetts
Michigan
MICH -45.5
MICH -45.5
MICH 63, UMASS 13
Favorite
Over 54.5
Boston College
Northwestern
NW -4
NW -4
NW 22, BC 13
Favorite
Under 55
Eastern Michigan
Purdue
PUR -22
PUR -23.5
PUR 54, EMU 16
Favorite
Over 49.5
Northern Illinois
Army
NIU -1.5
NIU -3
NIU 41, ARMY 40
Underdog
Over 49
Wake Forest
Florida State
FSU -25
FSU -27.5
FSU 52, WAKE 0
Favorite
Over 51
Connecticut
Maryland
MARY pk
UConn -3
UCONN 24, MARY 21
Push
Over 39
Texas A&M
SMU
TA&M -10.5
TA&M -10
TA&M 48, SMU 3
Favorite
Under 60.5
Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh
VT -10.5
VT -10
PITT 35, VT 17
Underdog
Over 45
USC
Stanford
USC -9
USC -9.5
STAN 21, USC 14
Underdog
Under 56
East Carolina
Southern Miss
USM -8
USM -7
ECU 24, USM 14
Underdog
Under 56.5
California
Ohio State
OSU -16
OSU -17
OSU 35, CAL 28
Underdog
Over 55
Texas
Mississippi
TEX -12
TEX -10.5
TEX 66, MISS 31
Favorite
Over 51
Arizona State
Missouri
MIZ -8.5
MIZ -3.5
MIZZ 24, ASU 20
Favorite
Over 60.5
BYU
Utah
BYU -3.5
BYU -3.5
UTAH 24, BYU 21
Underdog
Push 45
North Carolina
Louisville
UL -3.5
UL -3
LOU 39, UNC 34
Favorite
Over 56
Virginia
Georgia Tech
GT -11
GT -10
GT 56, UVA 20
Favorite
Over 52
Alabama
Arkansas
ALA -15.5
ALA -21
ALA 52, ARK 0
Favorite
Over 49
Miami (OH)
Boise State
BSU -19
BSU -21
BSU 39, MOH 12
Favorite
Under 54
TCU
Kansas
TCU -22
TCU -18.5
TCU 20, KU 6
Underdog
Under 58.5
Rice
Louisiana Tech
LT -21
LT -21
LT 56, RICE 37
Underdog
Over 67.5
Western Michigan
Minnesota
MINN -4
MINN -3
MIN 28, WMU 23
Favorite
Under 55.5
Bowling Green
Toledo
TOL -6.5
TOL -3
TOL 27, BG 15
Favorite
Under 61
UAB
South Carolina
SC -33.5
SC -33.5
USC 49, UAB 6
Favorite
Over 54
Ohio
Marshall
OU -6.5
OU -5.5
OU 27, MAR 24
Underdog
Under 66.5
New Mexico
Texas Tech
TTU -32
TTU -32
TTU 49, UNM 14
Favorite
Under 65.5
Florida
Tennessee
TN pk
TN -3.5
FLA 37, UT 20
Underdog
Under 47.5
Colorado State
San Jose State
SJSU -12.5
SJSU -11.5
SJSU 40, CSU 20
Favorite
Over 48
Utah State
Wisconsin
UW-13.5
UW -14
UW 16, USU 14
Underdog
Under 51.5
Idaho
LSU
LSU -42
LSU -42
LSU 63, IDA 14
Favorite
Over 52
Notre Dame
Michigan State
MSU -4
MSU -4.5
ND 20, MSU 3
Underdog
Under 44
Ball State
Indiana
IU -3.5
IU -2.5
BSU 41, IU 39
Underdog
Over 64
Colorado
Fresno State
FSU -14
FSU -14.5
FSU 69, CU 14
Favorite
Over 56.5
New Mexico State
UTEP
UTEP -12.5
UTEP -14
UTEP 41, NMSU 28
Underdog
Over 58.5
Houston
UCLA
UCLA -18
UCLA -17
UCLA 37, HOU 6
Favorite
Under 75
Florida Atlantic
Georgia
UGA -44.5
UGA -41.5
UGA 56, FAU 20
Underdog
Over 52.5
Arkansas State
Nebraska
NEB -24
NEB -23.5
NEB 42, ASU 13
Favorite
Under 67
South Alabama
NC State
NCST -33
NCST -29.5
NCST 31, USA 7
Underdog
Under 50
Florida International
Central Florida
UCF -15
UCF -14.5
UCF 33, FIU 20
Underdog
Over 49.5
Louisiana-Lafayette
Oklahoma State
OSU -21
OSU -23
OSU 65, ULL 24
Favorite
Over 73
North Texas
Kansas State
KSU -28.5
KSU -27.5
KSU 35, NT 21
Underdog
Over 55
Middle Tennessee
Memphis
MSTU -2.5
MTSU -5.5
MTSU 48, MEM 30
Favorite
Over 54.5
Western Kentucky
Kentucky
KEN -5.5
KEN -6.5
WKU 32, UK 31 OT
Underdog
Over 50
Mississippi State
Troy
MSU -16
MSU -14.5
MSU 30, TROY 24
Underdog
Under 58.5
Louisiana-Monroe
Auburn
AUB -15.5
AUB -14.5
AUB 31, ULM 28 OT
Underdog
Over 53
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