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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Baltimore Ravens pegged for regression in 2013

06.24.2013     01:09 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week, I wrote about the Kansas City Chiefs, using them as the poster child for an NFL team that the betting markets expect significant improvement from in 2013.  This week, I’ll be writing about the Baltimore Ravens, using John Harbaugh’s squad as the poster child for a team the betting markets expect to regress significantly in the upcoming campaign.  Why do the markets disrespect Baltimore so much?  Read on to find out!

Let me start by clarifying exactly how the betting markets aren’t impressed with the Ravens heading into the start of training camp.  The numbers show it clearly.  The defending Super Bowl champs are lined as an 8.5 win team.  Eleven different teams are lined higher (Atlanta, Denver, Green Bay, Houston, New England, New Orleans, the New York Giants, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Seattle; all lined at nine wins or more).  Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas and Indianapolis are all lined in the same range (8.5 wins) as Baltimore.  Clearly, from a season wins perspective, the markets aren’t impressed with Baltimore, ranking them as a middle-of-the-pack ballclub.
It’s the same story for Read more

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers

Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers talks NFL Week 1 on today's Podcast

06.21.2013     09:35 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy gave out his thoughts and opinions (as well as a free play) on Week 1 of the NFL.

Today's segments
Teddy Covers - Week 1 NFL (Free Play)

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling News: Buffalo Bills call out league for unfair schedule

06.20.2013     08:12 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Let's all read about the Buffalo Bills (on their official website) bitch and complain about the unfairness of their 2013-14 schedule. Here is a good rebuttal to their argument.

Last year Buffalo had four games in a five-week span in which their opponent had extra rest and prep time via a bye week or having played a Thursday night game the week prior. In that span the Bills also had their own bye week, but the benefits were nullified by the fact that their opponent (Houston) also had a bye the same week.

Buffalo went 1-3 in those games in 2012.

This year’s schedule is unfortunately playing out in much the same fashion. In this year’s 2013 NFL slate Buffalo faces five opponents that will come off of extra rest leading up to the week that they face the Bills.

Tags: NFL Buffalo Bills

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: An in-depth look at the Kansas City Chiefs

06.17.2013     10:10 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
It’s never too early to start talking NFL. While the casual bettor may not pay attention until the start of the preseason in August, the wiseguys here in Vegas have already done their homework, ready to take advantage of early NFL betting opportunities as they present themselves over the next few months.

I’ve been waiting patiently for the NFL Season Wins market to mature, but that isn’t happening quickly – most of the notable offshores have not posted Over/Under win totals yet, leaving Vegas as the only active market right now. So, instead of writing about season wins over the next two weeks, I’ll be writing about two teams that set the tone for the entire market – the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens.

I’ve chosen the Chiefs and the Ravens very specifically, because those two teams are the best examples of what the market looks for when adjusting power ratings way up or way down from one season to the next. Why are the markets so high on Kansas City and so low on Baltimore to enter the 2013 preseason? Read on to find out. This week, I’ll take an in depth look at the Chiefs.

Kansas City Read more

Tags: NFL Kansas City Chiefs Teddy Covers

NFL Handicapping: A look at raw strength of schedule

06.12.2013     07:25 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
This is from two months ago but worth a read as breaks down the NFL's preseason strength of schedule. Importantly, it is pointed out that there doesn’t seem to be much relationship between preseason strength of the schedule (opponents' winning percentage from previous year) and the end-of-the-year SOS.

Tags: NFL

NFL Handicapping Tips: 2013-14 Schedule Breakdown

06.11.2013     12:56 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Below is a schedule breakdown for the upcoming 2013-14 NFL season. Each team plays its division mates twice (six games). Each division is paired up with fellow division within the conference (ex. AFC East plays AFC North; AFC South plays AFC West; NFC East plays NFC North; NFC South plays NFC West; four games). Each team also plays two other games within the conference against teams that placed the same (ex. Buffalo placed fourth in the AFC East and plays fellow fourth place finishers, Jacksonville and Kansas City). Lastly, each division is paired with another division in the other conference (ex. AFC East plays the NFC South; four games).

2013-14 NFL Schedule Breakdown
AFC East
AFC Partners
NFC South
at Jax, vs. Kansas City
vs. Carolina, at New Orleans, vs. Atlanta, at Tampa Bay
at Indianapolis, vs. San Diego
vs. Atlanta, at New Orleans, at Tampa Bay, vs. Carolina
New England
at Houston, vs. Denver
vs. Tampa Bay, at Atlanta, vs. New Orleans, at Carolina
NY Jets
at Tennessee, vs. Oakland
vs. Tampa Bay, at Atlanta, vs. New Orleans, at Carolina
AFC West
AFC Partners
NFC East
vs. Baltimore, at New England
at NY Giants, vs. Philadelphia, at Dallas, vs. Washington
Kansas City
vs. Cleveland, at Buffalo
vs. Dallas, at Philadelphia, vs. NY Giants, at Washington
vs. Pittsburgh, at NY Jets
vs. Washington, vs. Philadelphia, at NY Giants, at Dallas
San Diego
vs. Cincinnati, at Miami
at Philadelphia, vs. Dallas, at Washington, vs. NY Giants
AFC South
AFC Partners
NFC West
at Baltimore, vs. New England
vs. Seattle, at San Francisco, vs. St. Louis, at Arizona
vs. Miami, at Cincinnati
at San Francisco, vs. Seattle, vs. St. Louis, at Arizona
at Cleveland, vs. Buffalo
at Seattle, at St. Louis, vs. San Francisco, vs. Arizona
at Pittsburgh, vs. NJ Jets
at Seattle, vs. San Francisco, at St. Louis, vs. Arizona
AFC North
AFC Partners
NFC North
at Denver, vs. New England
vs. Green Bay, at Chicago, vs Minnesota, at Detroit
at San Diego, vs. Indianapolis
at Chicago, vs. Green Bay, at Detroit, vs. Minnesota
at Kansas City, vs. Jax
at Minnesota, vs. Detroit, at Green Bay, vs. Chicago
vs. Tennessee, at Oakland
vs. Chicago, at Minnesota, vs. Detroit, at Green Bay
NFC East
NFC Partners
AFC West
vs. St. Louis, at New Orleans
at Kansas City, vs. Denver, at San Diego, vs. Oakland
NY Giants
at Carolina, vs. Seattle
vs. Denver, at Kansas City, vs. Oakland, at San Diego
at Tampa Bay, vs. Arizona
vs. San Diego, vs. Kansas City, at Denver, at Oakland
vs. San Francisco, at Atlanta
at Oakland, at Denver, vs. San Diego, vs. Kansas City
NFC West
NFC Partners
AFC South
vs. Detroit, at Philadelphia
vs. Houston, at Jacksonville, vs. Indianapolis, at Tennessee
San Francisco
vs. Green Bay, at Washington
vs. Indianapolis, vs. Houston, at Tennessee, at Jacksonville
vs. Minnesota, at NY Giants
vs. Jacksonville, at Houston, at Indianapolis, vs. Tennessee
St. Louis
at Dallas, vs. Chicago
vs. Jacksonville, at Houston, vs. Tennessee, at Indianapolis
NFC South
NFC Partners
AFC East
at Green Bay, vs. Washington
at Miami, vs New England, vs. NY Jets, at Buffalo
vs. NY Giants, at Minnesota
at Buffalo, vs. New England, at Miami, vs. NY Jets
New Orleans
at Chicago, vs. Dallas
vs. Miami, at New England, vs. Buffalo, at NY Jets
Tampa Bay
vs. Philadelphia, at Detroit
at NY Jets, at New England, vs. Miami, vs. Buffalo
NFC North
NFC East
AFC North
vs. New Orleans, at St. Louis
vs. Cincinnati, at Pittsburgh, vs Baltimore, at Cleveland
at Arizona, vs. Tampa Bay
at Cleveland, vs. Cincinnati, at Pittsburgh, vs. Baltimore
Green Bay
at San Francisco, vs. Atlanta
at Cincinnati, at Baltimore, vs. Cleveland, vs. Pittsburgh
vs. Carolina, at Seattle
vs. Cleveland, vs. Pittsburgh, at Baltimore, at Cincinnati

Tags: NFL

NFL Betting News: Seven teams feature new HC, OC, and DC

06.05.2013     08:08 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here's a link to all of the NFL head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator changes for the upcoming 2013-14 season. Arizona, Buffalo, Chicago, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Kansas City, and Philadelphia have new coaches at all three positions.

Tags: NFL

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFL Season Over/Under Wins

06.03.2013     11:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
In last week’s column, I wrote about my personal process for assessing NFL Season Win Totals, calling those totals “the single most profitable set of wagers that I’ve found in my 15 years as a professional bettor living in Las Vegas.”  I also wrote in detail about the first step of that process – identifying accurate strength of schedule numbers from last year, to better gauge whether teams overachieved or underachieved in 2012; giving me a superior starting point to begin my analysis for this year.

I closed out the article with these two paragraphs: “The New York Giants faced single toughest schedule from last year based on my numbers on the weeks the games were played.  The Saints weren’t far behind.  Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, Baltimore and St Louis all faced abnormally tough slates.

“On the easy side, the Colts, Texans and Bengals all stood out; by far the three easiest schedules in the league.  Miami, Atlanta and San Diego also had much easier than average slates.  In my next column, I’ll write about the next step in the process -- identifying accurate Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Getting a leg up on betting the 2013-14 NFL season

05.28.2013     10:31 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
I’m writing this column over Memorial Day Weekend, nearly two and a half months before the NFL preseason kicks off with the Hall of Fame Game on August 4th and a full three and a half months before the start of the regular season.  And yet NFL betting numbers for the upcoming campaign are becoming more and more widely available; once again proving quite clearly that the NFL is King when it comes to sports betting.

The single most profitable set of wagers that I’ve found in my 15 years as a professional bettor living in Las Vegas are NFL Season Win totals.  Super Bowl odds, and odds to win divisions or conferences only give bettors one choice – betting ON a particular team.  Then that team has to beat out all of their competition to win the division/conference/Super Bowl for you to cash, offering big payday longshot returns, but cashing a very low percentage of the wagers that are made.

NFL Season Win totals, on the other hand, offer bettors the opportunity to bet AGAINST teams from a macro perspective.  And with win totals, you don’t have to worry about the competition, even when betting Overs.  For example, the Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL-run website covers Las Vegas sportsbook odds

05.21.2013     08:01 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
This has happened before, but we still find it humorous. On the Baltimore Ravens' official website, which is obviously a part of, a beat writer runs through some of the 2013 season over/under wins provided by Las Vegas sportsbooks. The over/under on the article getting pulled down is 10.5un-120 hours.

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens


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