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NFL Handicapping: Offensive performances and run game success Week 12

11.30.2011     07:48 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
The top Week 12 offensive performances in victory included the Saints (577 yards, 8.4 yards per play), Patriots (477, 6.4), Redskins (416, 6.4) and Bengals (389, 6.0). Poor offensive performances in defeat included the 49ers (170, 3.1), Vikings (226, 4.3), Seahawks (250, 4.0), Chiefs (252, 4.0), Jaguars (255, 3.6), Rams (272, 4.9) and Browns (274, 4.2).  The Redskins finally snapped a seven-game losing streak and rushed for 110 yards after running for 69, 61, 52, 26, 92 and 42 yards the previous six games. 

Teams that rushed for 150 or more yards went 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS. Teams that rush for at least 150 yards and outrush their opponent cover the pointspread 77% of the time, while teams that rush for 175 yards or more are 35-5 SU and 32-7-1 ATS (82%). Being able to handicap and project which teams will have a meaningful rushing advantage (say, 30 or more yards) will lead you to more pointspread winners, as teams with that type of advantage cover the pointspread approximately 75% of the time historically, and 76% of the time thus far this season (I have a data base for over 10 years to prove it).
The Bears rushed for 172 yards to just 73 for the Read more

Tags: NFL __

The heck with common sense! History screams bet the Colts this weekend

11.29.2011     11:10 AM     Printer Friendly
Yeah, it's the NFL, were parity thrives, but we were a bit shocked to see that since 1991, only nine teams have been favored by 20 or more points in a game. In fact, from 1994 to 2006, no team was favored by that amount. During New England's 16-0 regular season in 2007, they were big chalk on four occasions (0-4 ATS). Overall, teams laying -20 or more are 9-0 SU but only 2-7 ATS. Sounds like a reason to take +20.5 with Indy this weekend at New England, right? Absolutely! Give us quarterback Dan Orlovsky on the road for the max please. We promise this is our last Colts-related blog post of the year...unless they win in Foxboro. That would be pretty cool.

NFL Favorites of 20 points or more 1991-present
SU Result
ATS Result

Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts New England Patriots

Bettor holding 1000-1 ticket on Colts to go 0-16

11.29.2011     10:47 AM     Printer Friendly
Apparently some dude bet $10 to win $10K on the Colts to go winless at some offshore sportsbook.


Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts

Fairway Jay: Inside the NFL Betting Numbers Week 12

11.29.2011     08:09 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Throughout the NFL season, Fairway Jay provides a look at weekly box scores, stats and how to utilize the numbers and situations for success. For over a decade, Jay has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers and statistical guidelines to better assist him in sports investing and providing point spread winners. Fairway Jay is a recognized leader in NFL handicapping and you can follow his articles and insight in the Sportsmemo daily blog and on Twitter: @FairwayJay

Week 12 NFL favorites went 13-3 straight up and 9-7 against the spread. For the season, betting favorites are 84-85-7 ATS.  Last season betting favorites went 123-128-7 ATS (48%). A few close wins or losses could have the overall records slightly different based on closing lines and sportsbook. Six division games in Week 12 and division underdogs went 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS. Home underdogs went 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS, and for the season home underdogs are 17-33 SU and 24-25-1 ATS. Scoring for the week averaged 41.5 ppg and totals went 7-9 O/U and are 84-90-2 O/U YTD. There have been 7,705 Read more

Tags: NFL __

Monday Night Football: Bettors continue to support Saints over Giants

11.28.2011     01:13 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
New York Giants at New Orleans -7.5 O/U 51

Thoughts on tonight's Monday Football contest between the Giants and Saints from Hilton oddsmaker Jay Kornegay.

Jay Kornegay says: "We opened New Orleans at minus-6.5 last Sunday with a total of 52. The number has been a solid minus-7 for most of the week, but starting Friday we received some Saints money. We moved to minus-7.5 on Friday and have been there ever since. The total has dropped a little to 51.

"Despite the Giants being a semi-popular team, their recent poor play will keep the public on the Saints side. With the majority of the sports books at minus-7, I expect most of the money to show on New Orleans, and this line will close at minus-7.5 and we'll even see some minus-8s. The total will be pushed up as well and should close at 52."

Prediction: Line will close at minus-7.5 or minus-8; total will close at 52

Tags: NFL New Orleans Saints New York Giants

Handicapper Teddy Covers: Week 12 AFC Betting News and Notes

11.28.2011     08:30 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy Covers’ unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: AFC News and Notes from Week 12.

Is it too early to call CJ Spiller a bust? He was an amazing playmaker at Clemson and the No. 9 overall draft choice by the Bills, but he's shown exactly zero playmaking ability at the NFL level. His long carry today, replacing Fred Jackson as the starter? Nine yards. In 25 games over two years with Buffalo (156 rushes and receptions coming following the game), Spiller has found the end zone only twice – less than the number of times that he's fumbled. And his contribution to the return game hasn't done a darn thing. Just their current four game skid, the Bills have collapsed on both sides of the football. This was their best offensive performance in nearly two months, but the secondary got absolutely torched in the second half. Without pro bowl caliber cornerback Terrance McGee (IR) in Read more

Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Buffalo Bills Houston Texans Jacksonsville Jaguars New York Jets Tennessee Titans Oakland Raiders Teddy Covers

NFL Handicapping: Houston Texans down to third-string QB TJ Yates

11.28.2011     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Atlanta at Houston

Houston's quarterback situation just went from bad to worse after Matt Leinart reportedly broke his collarbone in Sunday's win over Jacksonville. The Texans were forced to go with rookie TJ Yates who performed adequately (80of-15, 70 yards) in relief of Leinart. Yates is likely to be this week's starter though the Texans picked up veteran Kellen Clemens after Schaub went down. Houston (8-3) owns a two-game lead over Tennessee (6-5) in the AFC South. The remaining schedule appears manageable with Atlanta, Carolina and Tennessee at home and road trips to Cincinnati and Indianapolis.

“It’s why we drafted him,” offensive coordinator Rick Dennison said of Yates. “He’s a calm guy, he’s a smart guy and he knows what we do. We’ll see how it goes the next couple days, the next week. If that’s what Read more

Tags: NFL Houston Texans Atlanta Falcons

NFL Gambling Notes: Philadelphia secondary could be vulnerable vs. Patriots

11.27.2011     06:43 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
New England -3 at Philadelphia O/U 50.5

Philadelphia's offensive injuries have been hogging the headlines but flying under the radar is a banged up secondary.  Cornerbacks Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (ankle) and Nnamdi Asomugha (knee) are currently listed as questionable. Not a favorable situation if those two can't go against New England's passing attack.

Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles New England Patriots

NFL Handicapper Free Pick: Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks

11.27.2011     06:34 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports blog entry.
Washington at Seattle -3 O/U 37.5
Recommendation: Seattle

After a promising 3-1 start, it’s obviously been all downhill for the Redskins. They’ve now lost six straight games including last week’s heartbreaker to the Cowboys.  From a talent perspective it’s just hard to envision this team even coming close to challenging their NFC East Division rivals down the stretch.  Playing one of their rivals won’t be the case this week as they travel to the northwest to face the Seahawks.  The Seahawks certainly have their own issues; however they’ve now won two games in a row including an upset over the Ravens two weeks ago on this same home turf.  The key match-up in this game points to Seattle's defensive line against the Redskins' offensive line.  Seattle’s front five is playing at a very strong level right now with Red Bryant, Chris Clemons, Brandon Mebane and company. Meanwhile, the Redskins o-line is banged up beyond belief Read more

Tags: NFL Washington Redskins Seattle Seahawks Erin Rynning

NFL Handicapping: Arizona's Skelton slated to start against Rams

11.27.2011     06:18 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Arizona at St. Louis -2.5 O/U 39.5

Looks like another week with John Skelton under center for Arizona as Kevin Kolb was downgraded to doubtful yesterday. Skelton looked halfway decent his first two starts against the Rams and Eagles (537 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs) but took a step back last week with only 99 yards and three picks against San Francisco's stout defense.

The last time these two teams met, St. Louis was able to statistically dominate much of the game. In fact, the Cardinals' first nine drives averaged only 19 yards before they went on an 84-yard TD drive late in the fourth to tie the game. Arizona went on to win in OT when Patrick Peterson returned a 99-yard punt for a touchdown.

Tags: NFL Arizona Cardinals St. Louis Rams


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