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Investment firm calls for a New England Patriots pointspread cover

02.02.2012     07:43 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Analytic Investors LLC, a money management firm based out of Las Angeles, has reportedly picked the against the spread winner of the Super Bowl eight straight years. This year's pick is on the New England Patriots.


“Everyone thinks the Giants are rolling right now, a lot of people in my office even,” said Matthew Robinson, a portfolio analyst for global and Japanese equities at Analytic and the author of this year’s analysis. “They like the Giants, but they have faith in the model as well.”

“We took into account how the public has been betting the Giants the past few weeks and winning with them,” he said in a telephone interview. “We opened three based on that and have gotten a lot of Giants money anyway. I can see how it correlates from that perspective; not from a predicting standpoint maybe, but from a value standpoint.”

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Super Bowl XLVI

Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet Pick: First kickoff to result in a touchback

02.02.2012     07:24 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet
First kickoff to result in a touchback?
Recommendation: Yes -200

This bet is still worth making at -200 or better, and it’s an interesting handicap.  The Patriots have a strong tendency to defer when they win the opening coin toss, while the Giants’ prevailing tendency is to get the ball first when they win the toss.  As a result, chances are pretty good that it’s going to be Stephen Gostkowski with the opening kickoff, not Lawrence Tynes.  Gostkowski is a touchback type kicker with a big leg and the adrenaline will most assuredly be flowing for that opening kick.  The Giants don’t attempt many kickoff returns from deep in their own end zone – without a strong return game, they are quite comfortable taking the ball at the 20-yard line.  And the pristine conditions inside Lucas Oil Stadium have produced touchbacks on 76% of the kickoffs for the full season.  Put it all together and we’re getting a 3:1 favorite while laying 2:1 or less to do it.

Tags: NFL New England Patriots New York Giants Super Bowl XLVI Teddy Covers

NFL Handicapping: 77-year-old Vegas man wins Station Casinos' Football Contest

02.02.2012     06:00 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Article on Las Vegas resident Ernie Carey, who at 77 years old won this year's Station Casinos' NFL Contest. Carey finished 180-65, 73% straight up to claim the title. The grand prize was apparently a $225K house.

“In the first week, I had every team but the (New England) Patriots, who lost to the (Buffalo) Bills after being ahead at halftime,” Carey said. “That’s kind of the way the year went.”

“When we get that money, it will replenish my gambling fund,” Carey said. “My wife said she wants to buy new furniture, but I want to have a little extra to gamble.”

“I bet on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the playoffs and I got 5-2 (odds). So if they win, I’ll get $183. Then, I put $90 on the Giants and am getting three points,” he said. “So, if they keep in close, I’ll win both sides.

Tags: NFL Las Vegas

Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet Pick: Ovechkin points vs. Gronkowski touchdowns

02.01.2012     02:03 PM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet
Rob Gronkowski touchdowns vs. Alexander Ovechkin total points vs. Boston
Recommendation: Ovechkin -160 (Hilton)
Super Bowl Props are upon us and I have to stay close to home with this prop bet recommendation.  Hilton put this prop up and there has been some money moving on Alex Ovechkin already to have more points against Boston on Sunday than Gronkowski will have touchdowns against the Giants.  Two of the biggest variables in this bet are the health of Gronkowski and the energy level of Alex Ovechkin.  We all know the ankle trouble that Gronkowski has been enduring for the last two weeks.  Everyone is expecting him to play, but how effective will he be on a bum ankle?  When healthy Gronkowski is a machine and can safely be counted on for at least 6-7 catches a game.  In eight of his 19 games this season he has had two or more TDs and three of the 19 games he ended with one TD – he was held scoreless in the other eight games.  Ovechkin on the other hand has been having a down year offensively and he will be playing on the back end of a back-to-back game where the Capitals Read more

Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLVI Sammy P

Super Bowl XLVI Gambling: Millman announces Prop Bet Contest winner

02.01.2012     12:40 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The winner of Chad Millman’s Prop Bet Contest was just named – a women who works at the American Institute of Physics. The prop will be offered at The Orleans sportsbook.

From Susan White: "Will the average jersey number of all the players who score in the Super Bowl be higher or lower than 47.47?

Explanation: If Eli Manning throws a touchdown pass to Victor Cruz and the extra point attempt is good, the average jersey number is (80 + 9) / 2 = 44.5."

And the winner is? Susan White!

"I chose this one for a couple of reasons," Scooch told me. "First, I like that a woman did it, it's just interesting to me. Second, it has some originality and creativity. And third, it is doable. I had chosen it before you told me about the number 47, and now I am even happier with it."

Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLVI

Super Bowl XLVI Gambling: Sportsbook says 65% of action on New York Giants

02.01.2012     12:26 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Las Vegas' MGM sportsbooks are reporting that upwards of 65% of the money wagered on Super Bowl XLVI thus far has been on the underdog New York Giants. Perhaps not in play here, but consensus underdogs of above 60% have long been a betting fade no matter what the sport.

"At this point we are still getting some dog money, they are betting the Giants, and I think that will be the trend going into the weekend," Jay Rood, vice president of the race and sports book at MGM, told Reuters in a telephone interview.

"I am fairly certain that it's happening throughout the whole state (of Nevada) as well so I'm pretty sure the state is going to need a Patriots victory."

Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLVI New York Giants Las Vegas

Super Bowl XLVI Gambling: University students lean New England

02.01.2012     08:07 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Who doesn't have an opinion on the Super Bowl? Lange's kid came home from school the other day and said that nearly his entire kindergarten class were lined up on the Patriots – is fading 5-year olds a proven strategy? Up next, the North Dakota State Science and Mathematics department which just spent a boatload of man hours – they broke down over 1,700 NFL games – to come up with this rock solid conclusion...

“Basically I think that the New England Patriots have a slight advantage because I think for the New York Giants to win it's going to take a higher turnover margin.”

Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLVI

Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet Pick: Total Kickoff Returns UNDER 6.5

01.31.2012     12:12 PM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports blog entry.
Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet
Total Kickoff Returns
Recommendation: Under 6.5 (-160 at LVH)

New York Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes doesn’t have the strongest leg in the NFL. In 2010 the Giants averaged a touchback on just 8.2% of all kickoffs. It certainly doesn’t help that the Giants also play many games in poor weather and in plenty of outdoor stadiums. But this history actually helps us this Sunday with Tynes now indoors and kicking off from the 35-yard line.

Consider this; since the new rule was adopted prior to the season the Giants have averaged a touchback on 38.4% of all kickoffs. That’s a significant improvement and shows Tynes has the leg to get it deep with that extra five yard boost from the rulebook. But that’s not the most significant factor in play this weekend. In the three games the Giants played indoors they averaged a touchback on a whopping 60% of all kickoffs!

If there was one player we needed to really worry about with this prop it was Tynes and I think the numbers bear out that he should be no issue at all.

New England kicker Gostkowski has a much stronger leg and while we Read more

Tags: NFL New England Patriots New York Giants Super Bowl XLVI Otto Sports

The media isn't so hot when it comes to picking NFL games straight up

01.31.2012     09:23 AM     Printer Friendly
Article from Deadspin that analyzes media pundits and their ability inability to consistently pick NFL games straight up. PunditTracker, a website dedicated "to bringing accountability to the prediction industry", compiled the results. Deadspin pointed out the based on the betting lines, teams that were favored won 66.2% of time straight up – a much better figure than a majority of those who were tracked. Ron Jaworski checked in near the bottom of the list at a cool 60.8%. Topping the list were Yahoo Users (68.1%) who ironically get most of their information from the pundits they outperformed.

Tags: NFL

Grantland breaks down Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bets

01.31.2012     07:20 AM     Printer Friendly
Bill Barnwell of Grantland put together a nice write-up on some prop bets for Super Bowl XLVI – correlated with various outcomes of the game.

Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLVI


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