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Fairway Jay: Inside the NFL Betting Numbers Week 10

11.15.2011     06:04 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Throughout the NFL season, Fairway Jay provides a look at weekly box scores, stats and how to utilize the numbers and situations for success. For over a decade, Jay has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers and statistical guidelines to better assist him in sports investing and providing point spread winners. Fairway Jay is a recognized leader in NFL handicapping and you can follow his articles and insight in the Sportsmemo daily blog and on Twitter: @FairwayJay

Week 10 NFL favorites went 8-8 SU and 8-8 against the spread. For the season, betting favorites are 69-72-5 ATS. Last season betting favorites went 123-128-7 ATS (48%). A few close wins or losses could have the overall records slightly different based on closing lines and sportsbook. Seven division games in Week 10 and division underdogs went 2-5 ATS. Home underdogs went 1-3 SU/ATS, and for the season home underdogs are 16-27 SU and 21-21-1 ATS. Scoring was lower again for the week at 40.1 ppg. Totals went 6-10 O/U and are 71-73-2 O/U on the season. There have been 6,436 points Read more

Tags: NFL __

NFL Handicapping: Packers now a 13-point favorite over Vikings for MNF

11.14.2011     02:14 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Minnesota at Green Bay -13 O/U 49.5

Thoughts on tonight's Monday Football contest between the Vikings and Packers from Hilton oddsmaker Jay Kornegay.

Jay Kornegay says: "We opened Green Bay minus-13 and a total of 51. Right away, the line went to minus-14 but since then has been flip-flopping back and forth from minus-13 to minus-13.5. We're currently at minus-13 and a total of 50. The 'smarts' won't let this get out of hand and have been scooping up those minus-13.5s whenever they pop up. As expected, a majority of the tickets have the name Packers on them, but it's not a landslide.

"We expect the same betting patterns as we approach kickoff. The small tickets will accumulate, and the line will go up, only to be snatched up by the sharps. We expect the game to close at minus-13 with some 'over' money coming in to close it at 51. I do know a lot of sharps like this game under."

Prediction: Line will close at minus-13; total Read more

Tags: NFL Minnesota Vikings Green Bay Packers

NFL Handicapping: Remaining schedules for playoff contenders

11.14.2011     09:18 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Here are the remaining schedules for teams in playoff contention. This is the last week for team on a bye (Colts, Saints, Steelers, Texans). Pay attention to the tie-breakers and strength of schedule down the stretch. Note that final regular season games are played on New Year’s Day.
Also included are the winless Colts (0-10) and their remaining schedule.
I’ve left out the Chiefs and Broncos, both 4-5. They are pretenders, not contenders, although both teams remain just one game back of the Raiders in the AFC West. Each team has a very tough remaining schedule and both will finish with losing records.

AFC East (Team Record) (Combined record of Remaining Opponents)
- New England (6-3) – Kansas City, at Philadelphia, Indianapolis, at Washington, at Denver, Miami, Buffalo (23-41)
- NY Jets (5-4) – at Denver, Buffalo, at Washington, Kansas City, at Philadelphia, NY Giants, at Miami (27-36)
- Buffalo (5-4) – at Miami, at NY Jets, Tennessee, at San Diego, Miami, Denver, at New England (28-33)

AFC Read more

Tags: NFL __

NFL Handicapper Gambling Notes: Who to bet on or fade in the AFC

11.14.2011     08:26 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
We’ve passed the halfway point of the NFL season.  The final bye weeks come this Sunday in Week 11, and with that, we’ll enter the homestretch of the campaign.  As we progress from Thanksgiving towards Christmas and New Year’s, I like to take a short break from my weekly Team Notes column – gotta keep the material fresh throughout the season.  Instead of my AFC Team Notes this week, I’ll do a broader overview; taking a look at all 16 AFC teams to examine which squads offer real pointspread potential down the stretch, and which squads look like fade material during crunch time.

In the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills are trending downwards following their blowout loss at Dallas.  The Bills have lost four out of six in SU fashion; their only two wins came against bottom feeders Philly and Washington.  The Bills defense notched four interceptions in a game twice in a row earlier this year, and had three straight games with a defensive score.  Those defensive scores haven’t been coming in recent weeks, and Buffalo is now 4-4-1 ATS; a team headed in wrong direction.

The New York Jets are 4-5 ATS, while Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Handicapper Free Play: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

11.13.2011     07:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Jacksonville -3 at Indianapolis O/U 37.5
Recommendation: Jacksonville

The Colts defense has created a grand total of one turnover in their last six games.  It makes sense.  Indy is still playing their conservative Cover-2 scheme defensively, without any playmakers in their secondary.  Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis aren’t forcing much pressure on opposing quarterback either.  So, basically, the Colts are conceding the short pass on every play.  That’s why they’ve allowed 120 points over the last three weeks, against teams that spent extended stretches of every second half trying to run clock, not score points.

The Colts offense, on the other hand, is losing turnovers every week.  Again, it makes perfect sense.  Indy has been forced to play from behind – they’ve got to take chances throwing downfield.  The Colts have an inexperienced quarterback who’s going through some rough growing pains. Read more

Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts Jacksonville Jaguars Teddy Covers

NFL Handicapping Previews: Week 10 Division matchups

11.12.2011     07:33 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati +4 – Key division game in the AFC North as the  Bengals (6-2) look for their sixth straight win and cover. In their way is rival Pittsburgh (6-3), and the Steelers have owned the Bengals on this field going 8-1 SU/ATS most recently. Bengals rookie quarterback Andy Dalton gets his stiffest test of the season vs. the blitzing pressure packages of Pittsburgh, who will play without LB LaMarr Woodley. Cinci’s easy schedule gets much tougher starting Sunday, and against their only quality defense (San Francisco) they managed just 228 yards on this field in a 13-8 defeat.  Steelers’ stats on offense and defense look solid, and both teams have top-4 defenses. But a -12 turnover margin has cost Pittsburgh, and surprisingly the Dick LaBeau coached defense has only generated four turnovers in nine games.  Likely a lower-scoring game controlled by the defenses and ground games, and any more miscues by the Steelers will result in Cincinnati staying on Read more

Tags: NFL __ Cincinnati Bengals Pittsburgh Steelers Jacksonville Jaguars Indianapolis Colts New Orleans Saints Atlanta Falcons New England Patriots New York Jets

Handicapper Erin Rynning analyzes NFL Week 10 totals

11.12.2011     07:12 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports blog entry.
Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning contributed some thoughts and opinions on a couple of NFL totals for Week 10.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals -- UNDER 41.5
This will be an interesting test for the Bengals' young quarterback, Andy Dalton. Of course, he’ll be matched up against the tricky zone blitz schemes of the Steelers, and expect some struggles. Meanwhile, this Bengals defense just continues to get the job done, but also show improvement as well.

Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks -- OVER 41
We’ll bet on Joe Flacco to continue to produce in this trip to Seattle. This Seahawks offense is certainly better than advertised with Sidney Rice a real weapon, the run game perking up last week, now they need to get Zach Miller into the fold at home. Both teams could very well run some no-huddle in this contest.

New England Patriots at New York Jets -- UNDER 47.5
Ground and pound! We’ll ride it again this week. Of course, the Jets are doing their best to transform themselves into the ground game offense with a suffocating defense. Mission accomplished last week, Read more

Tags: NFL Erin Rynning

NFL Handicapping Previews: Week 10 Interconferences matchups

11.12.2011     07:07 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Buffalo at Dallas -5.5 – This sets up as a high-scoring entertaining game. The underachieving Cowboys (4-4) have posted some impressive offensive numbers as they outgain a tougher schedule 400-335. Rookie running back DeMarco Murray has burst onto the scene and added to the offense’s success. I expect Tony Romo to have a big game even without WR Miles Austin, as the Cowboys speedy receivers and top TE will make plenty of plays against a suspect secondary.  The Bills (5-3) defense allows 381 ypg and 6.0 yards per play including 260 passing ypg and 7.7 yards per pass attempt. The Bills offense has been efficient in the red zone and is more balanced with a top-tier running game and breakout season from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Against a Dallas secondary missing CB Jenkins and top tackler LB Lee hurting and questionable, the Bills offense should also enjoy success Sunday. Bills head coach Chan Gailey returns to Dallas where he coached in the late 90’s, and he’s one of the top offensive Read more

Tags: NFL __ Dallas Cowboys Buffalo Bills Houston Texans Tampa Bay Buccaneers Washington Redskins Miami Dolphins St. Louis Rams Cleveland Browns

Fairway Jay releases his 20* AFC Over/Under Game of the Year

11.12.2011     06:25 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

Tomorrow is Week 10 of the NFL season, and we release our 20* AFC O/U Game of the Year. We’re on a 3-0 Big Drive 20* run in the NFL and 7-3 our last 10 Big Drive NFL plays overall. Regular Fairway Followers and personal clients cashed in on our 20* AFC Game of the Year winner October 23rd when the Houston Texans (+3) destroyed the Tennessee Titans 41-7. This week our setup looks strong with favorable match-ups and a meaningful game for division rivals.

We have a full card highlighted by our top play total as we shoot for our fourth-straight profitable week of NFL winners. While the match-ups look right, so too do the statistical profiles of these teams to play out as projected. I also have a situation that pops for the first time this season on another selection this Sunday. Two years ago, regular Fairway Followers recall that we released our biggest NFL card ever; 10 service selections in Week 2 of the 2009 season. And we went a perfect 10-0! All documented, and in fact, I wrote up every single game on the board that week in the Sportsmemo Blog for all to see and view before the games. Read more

Tags: NFL __

NFL Handicapping: Lengthy injury report for Oakland Raiders

11.10.2011     11:12 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Oakland at San Diego -7 O/U 47.5

Some injury concerns for Oakland heading into tonight's game at San Diego. The Raiders had managed to put out the same starting offensive line for every game but that is likely to change tonight with tackle Khalif Barnes and center Samson Satele questionable. Running back Darren McFadden has been ruled out while a host of other players missed practice and are questionable or doubtful.


Tags: NFL Oakland Raiders San Diego Chargers


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