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Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap the First Round of the NFL Playoffs

12.31.2013     12:01 PM     Printer Friendly
Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap the First Round of the NFL Playoffs

The theory is actually quite simple; since 2002, teams with a higher Strength of Schedule (using Sagarin’s Ratings) are a remarkable 32-12 straight up and 32-12 against the spread (73% winners) regardless of price and location. Even more amazing is that teams with a SOS differential of 10 or more went 20-3 SU, 20-3 ATS (87% winners). Taking it step further, teams with a better SOS that are underdogs went 11-8 SU, 14-5 ATS. Underdogs with a SOS rating of 10 or better went 7-3 ATS and 8-2 ATS.

NFL Playoff Strength of Schedule Betting Trend 2002-13
Year
Away (SOS)
Home (SOS)
Score
SOS SU
SOS ATS
2012
Cincinnati (31)
Houston (27) -4.5
HOU 19, CIN 13
Win
Win
2012
Minnesota (6) +8
Green Bay (8)
GB 24, MIN 10
Loss
Loss
2012
Indianapolis (32)
Baltimore (18) -6.5
BAL 24, IND 9
Win
Win
2012
Seattle (5) -3
Washington (15)
SEA 24, WAS 14
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2011
Cincinnati (23) +3
Houston (32)
HOU 31, CIN 10
Loss
Loss
2011
Detroit (4) +10.5
New Orleans (31)
NO 45, DET 28
Loss
Loss
2011
NY Giants (6) -3
Atlanta (21)
NYG 24, ATL 2
Win
Win
2011
Denver (8) +8
Pittsburgh (26)
DEN 29, PIT 23
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2010
New Orleans (25)
Seattle (28) +14.5
SEA 41, NO 36
Loss
Loss
2010
NY Jets (8) +1
Indianapolis (21)
NYJ 17, IND 16
Win
Win
2010
Baltimore (12) -3
Kansas City (32)
BAL 30, KC 7
Win
Win
2010
Green Bay (9) +1
Philadelphia (16)
GB 21, PHI 16
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2009
Philadelphia (13) +3.5
Dallas (14)
DAL 34, PHI 13
Loss
Loss
2009
Green Bay (32)
Arizona (28) +2.5
ARI 51, GB 45
Win
Win
2009
NY Jets (4) +2.5
Cincinnati (17)
NYJ 24, CIN 14
Win
Win
2009
Baltimore (10)
New England (6) -3.5
BAL 33, NE 14
Loss
Loss
 
 
 
 
 
 
2008
Baltimore (3) -3.5
Miami (26)
BAL 27, MIA 9
Win
Win
2008
Indianapolis (10) -1.5
San Diego (17)
SD 23, IND 17
Loss
Loss
2008
Philadelphia (5) -3
Minnesota (14)
PHI 26, MIN 14
Win
Win
2008
Atlanta (24)
Arizona (16) -1.5
ARI 30, ATL 24
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2007
NY Giants (2) +3
Tampa Bay (24)
NYG 24, TB 14
Win
Win
2007
Washington (1) +3
Seattle (35)
SEA 35, WAS 14
Loss
Loss
2007
Tennessee (18)
San Diego (6) -10.5
SD 17, TEN 6
Win
Win
2007
Jacksonville (13) -2.5
Pittsburgh (27)
JAX 31, PIT 29
Win
Loss
 
 
 
 
 
 
2006
NY Jets (8)
New England (4) -9.5
NE 37, NYJ 16
Win
Win
2006
Kansas City (17)
Indianapolis (5) -7
IND 23, KC 8
Win
Win
2006
NY Giants (9) +6.5
Philadelphia (21)
PHI 23, NYG 20
Loss
Win
2006
Dallas (23) +2.5
Seattle (30)
SEA 21, DAL 20
Loss
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2005
Carolina (24)
NY Giants (17) -3
CAR 23, NYG 0
Loss
Loss
2005
Washington (3) +1
Tampa Bay (32)
WAS 17, TB 10
Win
Win
2005
Pittsburgh (4) -3
Cincinnati (13)
PIT 31, CIN 17
Win
Win
2005
Jacksonville (25)
New England (8) -7.5
NE 28, JAX 3
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2004
Denver (14)
Indianapolis (11) -10
IND 49, DEN 24
Win
Win
2004
NY Jets (4) +7
San Diego (18)
NYJ 20, SD 17
Win
Win
2004
St. Louis (22) +3.5
Seattle (29)
STL 27, SEA 20
Win
Win
2004
Minnesota (21) +6.5
Green Bay (26)
MIN 31, GB 17
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2003
Dallas (18)
Carolina (13) -3
CAR 29, DAL 10
Win
Win
2003
Seattle (27)
Green Bay (23) -7.5
GB 33, SEA 27
Win
Loss
2003
Denver (19)
Indianapolis (4) -3
IND 41, DEN 10
Win
Win
2003
Tennessee (6) -1
Baltimore (28)
TEN 20, BAL 17
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2002
Cleveland (17) +8
Pittsburgh (20)
PIT 36, CLE 33
Loss
Win
2002
Indianapolis (28)
NY Jets (5) -6
NYJ 41, IND 0
Win
Win
2002
NY Giants (30)
San Francisco (11) -3
SF 39, NYG 38
Win
Loss
2002
Atlanta (6) +7
Green Bay (27)
ATL 27, GB 7
Win
Win
Results
 
 
 
32-12 SU
32-12 ATS


In 2002 the NFL expanded to its current format of 32 teams; eight divisions with four teams each. There wasn’t much upheaval as the leagued added the Houston Texans to the AFC and Seattle switched to the NFC. Two new divisions were created as the league kept the integrity of the established divisional rivalries pretty much intact. The playoff format was modified so that four division winners and two wild cards from each conference would advance to the playoffs.

Two regular scheduling changes were implemented based on the Read more


Tags: NFL




NFL Handicapping: An early look at Wild Card Round line moves

12.30.2013     07:30 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Next weekend's NFL Wild Card matchups are set which means that betting markets are in motion. Let's take a look at each game and where they early money have moved both offshore and in Las Vegas. For more Wild Card line move analysis be sure to tune into today’s Sportsmemo Podcast segment with handicapper Teddy Covers. It will be posted by 10 am PT.

Kansas City at Indianapolis
CRIS Opener: Indianapolis -2.5 O/U 46
LVH Opener: Indianapolis -2.5 O/U 46
CRIS Current: Indianapolis -2.5 O/U 46.5
LVH Current: Indianapolis -2.5 O/U 46.5

Comments: Not a lot of movement outside of a half point jump in the total. Some other offshore books have taken Colts money with the juice now -120.

New Orleans at Philadelphia
CRIS Opener: Philadelphia -2.5 O/U 54.5
LVH Opener: Philadelphia -2.5 O/U 55
CRIS Current: Philadelphia -2.5 (-115) O/U 54.5
LVH Current: Philadelphia -2.5 O/U 54.5

Comments: Same deal as KC-Indy with minimal movement if any.

San Diego at Cincinnati
CRIS Opener: Read more


Tags: NFL Kansas City Chiefs Philadelphia Eagles San Francisco 49ers San Diego Chargers Cincinnati Bengals Green Bay Packers New Orleans Saints Indianapolis Colts




NFL Week 17 Betting Recap

12.30.2013     07:08 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Excellent betting recap of NFL Week 17 for our friend Stat Intelligence. Check out the links below...

Early Sunday Recap

Late Sunday Recap

Week 16 Pace Factors

Eagles pick their way to the playoffs



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Gambing News: Rodgers cleared to play, Green Bay favored at Chicago

12.27.2013     07:22 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Green Bay -3 at Chicago O/U 53

Green Bay announced yesterday that quarterback Aaron Rodgers will start Sunday's NFC North de facto championship game at Chicago. Rodgers hasn't played since breaking his collarbone Week 9 against the Bears. The Packers were 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in his absence. Below you can take a look at GB's pointspreads with and without Rodgers under center. The Packers were -10 at home vs. the Bears back in Week 9 and are currently -3 for Sunday.


"Every football player that plays in this game Sunday will have risk. I think we all understand that," McCarthy said. "So we've done our due diligence, we've gone through all the evaluations, and we feel it is time. Aaron is ready to play."



Pointspreads with Rodgers
Week 1: +5 at San Francisco
Week 2: -9 Read more


Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears




NFL Handicapping: Week 17 Playoff Scenarios

12.27.2013     07:10 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A semi-detailed look at Week 17's playoff scenarios. Heading into Sunday there are four playoff spots still yet to be determined.

NFC: Seattle, Carolina, and San Francisco are in. If the Seahawks beat St. Louis they have homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. If the Seahawks lose and San Francisco beats Arizona, the 49ers would win the West (and earn the top seed if Carolina loses). If both teams lose and Carolina beats Atlanta, then the Panthers are the top seed.

As for the rest of the NFC, Dallas at Philadelphia and Green Bay at Chicago are win-and-in matchups. New Orleans earns a wild card berth if it beats Tampa Bay. The Saints can also win the NFC South if Carolina losses. Arizona needs to beat the 49ers to go along with a Saints loss.

AFC: Denver, New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Kansas City are in. The Broncos are the top seed if they beat Oakland. If they lose and the Patriots beat the Bills, the Pats are the no. 1 seed. If the Pats lose and Cincinnati wins, the Bengals would move into the no. 2 slot. The Colts can move to no. 2 with losses by New England and Cincinnati. KC is already locked Read more


Tags: NFL




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Playoff bound, but Super Bowl XLVIII bound?

12.23.2013     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last year, heading into Week 17, Atlanta was the team to beat in the NFC, having already clinched homefield advantage with their 13-2 (at the time) record.  Washington was the hottest team in the conference and Green Bay was considered very live for the title, with Aaron Rodgers just one year removed from his Super Bowl ring.  In the AFC, the playoff were expected to be an eventual battle between the Patriots and Broncos, with the other four teams (Baltimore, Cincinnati, Houston and Indy) largely considered to be fodder for the elites; non-factors.

What happened? A San Francisco-Baltimore Super Bowl, won by the Ravens; their third straight postseason win as an underdog.  Let’s not forget that Baltimore entered the playoffs in the midst of a late season 1-4 SU and ATS skid; a team that NOBODY expected to make noise in January and February.

In 2011, in the NFC, Green Bay was the unbeatable juggernaut with a 15-1 record as the defending champs, and the Saints weren’t far behind, just one year removed from a Drew Brees Super Bowl ring.  Meanwhile, the Giants were on the outside of the playoff picture, needing to beat Dallas just to get Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Super Bowl XLVIII Las Vegas




NFL Week 16 Betting Recap

12.23.2013     06:50 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Excellent betting recap of NFL Week 16 for our friend Stat Intelligence. Check out the links below...

Early Sunday Recap

Late Sunday Recap

Week 16 Pace Factors

Eagles destroy Bears



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Betting Podcast 12-20-2013 with Handicappers Brent Crow and Erin Rynning

12.20.2013     11:05 AM     Printer Friendly
copy_nfl_podcast_bar.jpg

Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured NFL Week 16 Every Game on the Board coverage. Brent Crow and Erin Rynning joined host Andrew Lange to break down the entire slate from a betting perspective.

Today's segments
Full Show

Brent Crow - NFL Game on the Board Part I

Erin Rynning - NFL Every Game on the Board Part II

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.



Tags: NFL Erin Rynning Brent Crow




NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 16

12.20.2013     07:40 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Are you missing NFL football on a Thursday night? Here are this week’s Drive Point averages to help you make it to the weekend. Games are presented market rotation order. If you’re new to the blog, these are per-game averages for points scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more (weeding out all defensive points, special teams points, and otherwise “cheap” points from drives of 59 yards or less as itemized in standard boxscores). The first sent of parenthesis shows the current strength of schedule rankings from Jeff Sagarin of USA Today and Football Outsiders (in that order). The second set of parenthesis shows turnover differential to this point in the season.

That composite helps you visualize strengths, weaknesses, and team styles for all 32 teams. Sometimes they help you find matchup advantages in a given game. Here we go…

Miami: 11.8 on offense, 12.3 on defense (14-6) (+2 turnovers)

Buffalo: 11.4 on offense, Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Gambling Preview: Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

12.19.2013     12:47 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cleveland at New York Jets
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New York -1 O/U 39.5
CRIS Current: New York -2.5 O/U 40
Rob Veno's Power Rating: New York -3.5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: New York

The Browns are 1-8 since Brian Hoyer got hurt, suffering yet another heartbreak in a season full of them in last week’s loss to the Bears; their fifth consecutive defeat.  Despite scoring two defensive touchdowns, and entering the fourth quarter with the lead for the third straight week, the Browns defense wilted during crunch time and their offense couldn’t move the football when it mattered most. 

The Browns haven’t won on the road since their Week 3 victory at Minnesota, and they’re priced here as a team that likely needs to win the game in order to cover the pointspread.  To make matters even worse, the injury bug continues to bite, leaving pro bowl Read more


Tags: NFL Cleveland Browns New York Jets Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Oct 25, 2014 01:34 PM.