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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFL Draft has little impact on betting markets

05.12.2014     07:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The NFL draft is a thing of beauty for those who appreciate hype without substance.   After months of hype – literally, months of it, more hype than we see for any Super Bowl – the first round of the NFL draft attracted 32 million viewers to the coverage on ESPN and the NFL Network. 

That’s a massive 28 percent increase over the 25 million that watched the draft in 2013.  On digital media platforms, the draft drew more than 14 million visits, a 54 percent increase from 2013.  And I’m not convinced the ratings gold were all the result of Johnny Manziel‘s crossover publicity.  Fans and bettors alike seem to think that the draft is important.

The pre-draft hype is a series of smokescreens, with GM’s and personnel directors around the league unwilling to divulge any meaningful information to media types and those who communicate with media types.  We see mock drafts for weeks leading up to the real draft, with the likes of Todd McShay, Mel Kiper, Pete Prisco and Mike Mayock offering their informed predictions. 

And yet despite multiple revisions of those mock drafts – even Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Sportsbooks offer draft prop bets

05.07.2014     08:00 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A number of offshore sportsbooks are offering various prop bets on Thursday's NFL Draft. Below are a few courtesy of BetOnline.

1st Round Picks
Offense +110
Defense -140

AJ McCarron 1st Three Rounds?
Yes -165
No +135

Teddy Bridgewater 1st Round?
Yes +200
No -260

Player Drafted First?
Derek Carr -175
Teddy Bridgewater +145

Will Michael Sam get Drafted?
Yes -140
No +110

Wide Receivers in 1st Round?
Over 5.5 -185
Under 5.5 +155



Tags: NFL




NFL Handicapping: LVH posts Games of the Year

05.05.2014     12:05 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
LVH Sportsbook has posted its NFL Games of the Year – bettors can now bet on as many as 96 games for the upcoming 2014-15 regular season. And if you missed it, here's a link to Week 1's lines in full.



Tags: NFL




NFL Handicapping Tips: 2014-15 Schedule Breakdown

04.28.2014     01:04 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below is a schedule breakdown for the upcoming 2014-15 NFL season. Each team plays its division mates twice (six games). Each division is paired up with fellow division within the conference (ex. AFC East plays AFC West; AFC South plays AFC North; NFC East plays NFC West; NFC South plays NFC North; four games). Each team also plays two other games within the conference against teams that placed the same (ex. Buffalo placed fourth in the AFC East and plays fellow fourth place finishers, Houston and Cleveland). Lastly, each division is paired with another division in the other conference (ex. AFC East plays the NFC North; four games). For the curious, here's a link to last year's breakdown so you can compare.

2014-15 NFL Schedule Breakdown
AFC East
AFC Partners (West)
NFC North
Buffalo
at Houston, vs. Cleveland
at Chicago, at Detroit, vs. Minnesota, vs. Green Bay
Miami
at Jacksonville, vs. Baltimore
vs. Green Bay, at Chicago, at Detroit, vs. Minnesota
New England
vs. Cincinnati, at Indianapolis
at Minnesota, vs. Chicago, vs. Detroit, at Green Bay
NY Jets
vs. Pittsburgh, at Tennessee
at Green Bay, vs. Chicago, vs. Detroit, at Minnesota
AFC West
AFC Partners (East)
NFC West
Denver
vs. Indianapolis, at Cincinnati
at Seattle, vs. Arizona vs. San Francisco, at St. Louis
Kansas City
vs. Tennessee, at Pittsburgh
at San Francisco, vs. St. Louis, vs. Seattle, at Arizona
Oakland
vs. Houston, at Cleveland
vs. Arizona, at Seattle, at St. Louis, vs. San Francisco
San Diego
vs. Jacksonville, at Baltimore
at Arizona, vs. Seattle, vs. St. Louis, at San Francisco
AFC South
AFC Partners (North)
NFC East
Houston
at Oakland, vs. Buffalo
vs. Washington, at NY Giants, at Dallas, vs. Philadelphia
Indianapolis
at Denver, vs. New England
vs. Philadelphia, at NY Giants, vs. Washington, at Dallas
Jacksonville
at San Diego, vs. Miami
at Philadelphia, at Washington, vs. Dallas, vs. NY Giants
Tennessee
at Kansas City, vs. NY Jets
vs. Dallas, at Washington, at Philadelphia, vs. NY Giants
AFC North
AFC Partners (South)
NFC South
Baltimore
vs. San Diego, at Miami
vs. Carolina, at Tampa Bay, vs. Atlanta, at New Orleans
Cincinnati
at New England, vs. Denver
vs. Atlanta, vs. Carolina, at New Orleans, at Tampa Bay
Cleveland
vs. Oakland, at Buffalo
vs. New Orleans, vs. Tampa Bay, at Atlanta, at Carolina
Pittsburgh
at NY Jets, vs. Kansas City
at Carolina, vs. Tampa Bay, vs. New Orleans, at Atlanta
NFC East
NFC Partners (West)
AFC South
Dallas
vs. New Orleans, at Chicago
at Tennessee, vs. Houston, vs. Jacksonville, vs. Indianapolis
NY Giants
at Detroit, vs. Atlanta
vs. Houston, vs. Indianapolis, at Jacksonville, at Tennessee
Philadelphia
vs. Carolina, at Green Bay
vs. Jacksonville, at Indianapolis, at Houston, vs. Tennessee
Washington
at Minnesota, vs. Tampa Bay
at Houston, vs. Jacksonville, vs. Tennessee, at Indianapolis
NFC West
NFC Partners (East)
AFC West
Arizona
vs. Detroit, at Atlanta
vs. San Diego, at Denver, vs. Oakland, vs. Kansas City
San Francisco
vs. Chicago, at New Orleans
vs. Kansas City, at Denver, at Oakland, vs. San Diego
Seattle
vs. Green Bay, at Carolina
at San Diego, vs. Denver, vs. Oakland, at Kansas City
St. Louis
at Tampa Bay, vs. Minnesota
at Kansas City, vs. Denver, at San Diego, vs. Oakland
NFC South
NFC Partners (North)
AFC North
Atlanta
at NY Giants, vs. Arizona
at Cincinnati, at Baltimore, vs. Cleveland, vs. Pittsburgh
Carolina
vs. Seattle, at Philadelphia
vs. Pittsburgh, at Baltimore, at Cincinnati, vs. Cleveland
New Orleans
at Dallas, vs. San Francisco
at Cleveland, vs. Cincinnati, vs. Baltimore, at Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay
vs. St. Louis, at Washington
at Pittsburgh, vs. Baltimore, at Cleveland, vs. Cincinnati
NFC North
NFC Partners (South)
AFC East
Chicago
at San Francisco, vs. Dallas
vs. Buffalo, at NY Jets, vs. Miami, at New England
Detroit
vs. NY Giants, at Arizona
at NY Jets, vs. Buffalo, vs. Miami, at New England
Green Bay
at Seattle, vs. Philadelphia
vs. NY Jets, at Miami, vs. New England, at Buffalo
Minnesota
at St. Louis, vs. Washington
vs. New England, at Buffalo, vs. NY Jets, at Miami





Tags: NFL




NFL Handicapping: LVH posts Week 1 lines

04.24.2014     06:13 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
All business at LVH Sportsbook with NFL Week 1 lines and totals posted following the league's official schedule release.

Thursday
Green Bay at Seattle -5 O/U 45

Sunday
New Orleans at Atlanta -2 O/U 52
Minnesota at St. Louis-5 O/U 46
Cleveland at Pittsburgh -5 O/U 41
Jacksonville at Philadelphia -11 O/U 52.5
Oakland at NY Jets -4.5 O/U 39.5
Cincinnati at Baltimore -2.5 O/U 43.5
Buffalo at Chicago -6.5 O/U 49
Houston at Washington N/L
Tennessee at Kansas City -5.5 O/U 44
Miami at New England -3.5 O/U 47
Tampa Bay at Carolina -2.5 O/U 40.5
Dallas at San Francisco -3.5 O/U 48.5
Indianapolis at Denver -7 O/U 55.5

Monday
NY Giants at Detroit -4 O/U 45.5
San Diego at Arizona -3.5 O/U 44.5



Tags: NFL




Guess the St. Louis Rams' schedule and win six figures

04.15.2014     07:53 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
This isn't really gambling so much as guessing but with a little research and common logic someone can at least increase their odds. The St. Louis Rams are offering $100K to anyone who can accurately pick their regular season schedule – including any Monday or Thursday night affairs. Maybe this is a precursor to “contests” involving questions like Will Team A’s game vs. Team B Go Over/Under 47.5 Points?


"In anticipation of the Rams' 2014 regular-season schedule release, we are excited to offer fans the unique opportunity to win $100,000," team vice president of marketing Brian Killingsworth said in a statement. "We challenge our fans to accurately predict all 17 weeks of the team's regular-season schedule and win the cash prize."





Tags: NFL St. Louis Rams




NFL Handicapping: Cantor posts 2014 Regular Season O/U Wins

03.10.2014     02:35 PM     Printer Friendly
Yeah, it's March, but that didn't stop Cantor from hanging 2014-15 NFL season over/under wins. Your biggest gainers include Houston (2 wins to 8.5), Washington (3 wins to 7), and Atlanta (4 wins to 8). The biggest decliners are Carolina (12 wins to 8.5), Arizona (10 wins to 7) and Kansas City (11 wins to 8).

2014 NFL Season Over/Under Wins - Cantor Gaming Spring Lines
Team
Cantor O/U
2013 Win
Differential
Arizona
7
10
-3
Atlanta
8
4
+4
Baltimore
8.5
8
+0.5
Buffalo
6.5
6
+0.5
Carolina
8.5
12
-3.5
Chicago
8.5
8
+0.5
Cincinnati
9
11
-2
Cleveland
6.5
4
+2.5
Dallas
8
8
0
Denver
11
13
-2
Detroit
8
7
+1
Green Bay
10
8
+2
Houston
8.5
2
+6.5
Indianapolis
9
11
-2
Jacksonville
4.5
4
+0.5
Kansas City
8
11
-3
Miami
7.5
8
-0.5
Minnesota
6.5
5
+1.5
New England
10
12
-2
New Orleans
9.5
11
-1.5
NY Giants
7
7
0
NY Jets
6.5
8
-1.5
Oakland
5
4
+1
Philadelphia
8.5
10
-1.5
Pittsburgh
9
8
+1
San Diego
8
9
-1
San Francisco
11
12
-1
Seattle
11
13
-2
St. Louis
6.5
7
-0.5
Tampa Bay
6.5
4
+2.5
Tennessee
6.5
7
-0.5
Washington
7
3
+4




Tags: NFL




NFL coaches behind the curve when it comes to analytics

02.20.2014     12:18 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good article by Nate Silver in ESPN The Magazine's upcoming Analytics Issue. It discusses the relationship between statistics and what people do (or in the case of NFL head coaches, don't do) in terms of applying them.

 

According to 4th Down Bot, NFL teams kicked or punted when they should have gone for it 693 times in the past regular season, or 21.7 mishandled situations per team.





Tags: NFL




Las Vegas sportsbooks rake in $19.6 million on Super Bowl XLVIII

02.04.2014     06:16 AM     Printer Friendly
Super Bowl XLVIII proved to be a profitable one for Las Vegas sportsbooks – and by profitable, we mean they absolutely crushed. A record $119.4 million was wagered and the books won $19.6 million – a ridiculous 16.5% return. It could have been worse had the first score of the game not been a safety.

Las Vegas Super Bowl Profits 1995-2014
Year
Matchup
Wagered
Net Profit
Win%
2014
Seattle 43, Denver 8
$119,400,822
$19,673,960
16.5%
2013
Baltimore 34, San Francisco 31
$98,936,798
$7,206,460
7.30%
2012
NY Giants 21, New England 17
$93,899,840
$5,064,470
5.40%
2011
Green Bay 31, Pittsburgh 25
$87,491,098
$724,176
0.83%
2010
New Orleans 31, Indianapolis 17
$82,726,367
$6,857,101
8.30%
2009
Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 23
$81,514,748
$6,678,044
8.20%
2008
NY Giants 17, New England 14
$92,055,833
($2,573,103)
-2.80%
2007
Indianapolis 29, Chicago 17
$93,067,358
$12,930,175
13.90%
2006
Pittsburgh 21, Seattle 10
$94,534,372
$8,828,431
9.30%
2005
New Engand 24, Philadelphia 21
$90,759,236
$15,430,138
17.00%
2004
New England 32, Carolina 29
$81,242,191
$12,440,698
15.30%
2003
Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21
$71,693,032
$5,264,963
7.30%
2002
New England 20, St. Louis 17
$71,513,304
$2,331,607
3.30%
2001
Baltimore 34, NY Giants 7
$67,661,425
$11,002,636
16.30%
2000
St. Louis 23, Tennessee 16
$71,046,751
$4,237,978
6.00%
1999
Denver 34, Atlanta 19
$75,986,520
$2,906,601
3.80%
1998
Denver 31, Green Bay 24
$77,253,246
$472,033
0.60%
1997
Green Bay 35, New England 21
$70,853,211
$2,265,701
3.20%
1996
Dallas 27, Pittsburgh 17
$70,907,801
$7,126,145
10.10%
1995
San Francisco 49, San Diego 26
$69,591,818
($396,674)
-0.60%
 
 
$1,662,135,771
$128,471,540
7.72%




Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLVIII Las Vegas




Super Bowl XLVIII Gambling: Las Vegas sportsbooks clean up

02.03.2014     07:58 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Outside of the safety to open Super Bowl XLVIII, everything went right for the Las Vegas sportsbooks.


“The patrons went 0-2 — crappy game and lost money,” William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said. “It was a good day for the books.”

“That safety was a torch job,” Bogdanovich said. “It’s not a fun way to start off the day, getting six figures in the hole.”

“We were down $62,000 on the first play of the game,” Vaccaro reported. “We got dinged pretty good on that one, and a few others as the game went on.”






Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLVIII Las Vegas



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