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November

25

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NFL Gambling Trends: Teams that won by 20+ during regular season only 3-7 ATS in playoff rematch

01.08.2013     08:34 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Houston at New England -9 O/U 47.5

A quick database search shows that NFL teams that won by 20 points or more during the regular season were 6-4 SU but only 3-7 ATS against those teams in the postseason (dating back to 2003). Note also that of those 10 games, eight went over the total. New England beat Houston 42-14 at 5.5-point home favorites back in Week 15. Ironically, the last instance where this occurred was two years ago when the Patriots beat the Jets 45-3 but lost in the Divisional Round 28-21 at 9.5-point favorites.



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Houston Texans




NFL Betting Trends: New England Patriots have been money burners in the postseason

01.07.2013     10:38 AM     Printer Friendly
Houston at New England -9 O/U 48

If you've been betting on the New England Patriots over the last few regular seasons, you've made a decent chunk of change. But that success hasn't carried over to the postseason. Dating back the 2007-08 campaign, Belichick and Brady are a combined 4-4 SU and a dismal 1-7 ATS.

New England Patriots Postseason Betting History 2007-present
Year
Opponent
Score
Patriots SU
Patriots ATS
2011
NY Giants +3
NYG 21, NE 17
Loss
Loss
2011
Baltimore +7
NE 23, BAL 20
Win
Loss
2011
Denver +14
NE 45, DEN 10
Win
Win
2010
NY Jets +9.5
NYJ 28, NE 21
Loss
Loss
2009
Baltimore +3.5
BAL 33, NE 14
Loss
Loss
2007
NY Giants +12.5
NYG 17, NE 14
Loss
Loss
2007
San Diego +14
NE 21, SD 12
Win
Loss
2007
Jacksonville +13.5
NE 31, JAX 20
Win
Loss




Tags: NFL New England Patriots Houston Texans




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the AFC's Final Four

01.07.2013     08:02 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
With three more NFL playoff weekends still ahead of us, there are eight teams still standing; the top quartile of the league. This week, I’m going to write about all eight of those teams; assessing their respective chances for a trip to the Super Bowl. But first, it’s time for a brief history lesson for the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

If you’re looking for active trends for next weekend’s round of the playoffs, you’re not going to find much when it comes to sides. Over the past ten years, the rested team has only gone 17-23 ATS in this round, but we’ve seen some dramatic swings. From 2006-2008, the teams coming off a bye went only 2-10 ATS in this round. In 2009, the teams coming off their bye went 3-1 ATS. In each of the last two years, it’s been a 2-2 ATS split. In other words, there’s not much of a trend.

It’s a similar story with totals. Over the last ten years, there’s no prevailing trend to report, with 21 Unders compared to 19 Overs. But over the last two years, it’s 7-1 to the Over. In the two years before that, it was 6-2 to the Under. In the two years prior to that, Overs and Unders Read more


Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Houston Texans Denver Broncos New England Patriots Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Cincinnati's defensive turnaround results in 7-1 ATS run

01.04.2013     08:11 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cincinnati at Houston -4.5 O/U 43.5

It's been an amazing defensive transformation by the Cincinnati Bengals who allowed 34 ppg their first three game of the season and ended up one of the best stop units in the league. Eight games into the season, the Bengals were 3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS, and 5-3 O/U. After a dominating 31-13 win in over the Giants in Week 10, the switch was flipped. Cinci closed out the year 7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS and 1-7 O/U. One of the strengths of the defense has been its ability to apply pressure without blitzing.




Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals Houston Texans




NFL Wild Card Handicapping: Line moves update

01.03.2013     12:25 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A quick look at this weekend's NFL Wild Card line moves.

Cincinnati at Houston
CRIS Opener: Houston -5 O/U 44
CRIS Current: Houston -4.5 O/U 43.5

Early money came in on the Texans driving the line down to -4 but those were quickly bought up. The total has been bet down from and opener of 44 to as low as 43. A rematch of last year's Wild Card in which Houston won 31-10 as 4-point home favorites. The total in that game closed 38.

Minnesota at Green Bay
CRIS Opener: Green Bay -8 O/U 45.5
CRIS Current: Green Bay -8 O/U 46

Sportsbooks not scared to death by bettors teasing Green Bay below a field goal have been dealing -8 and -7.5 for much of the week. Pinnacle of course protecting themselves with -9.5 +115. The prevailing total is 46 with Greek dealing 46.5 and Grande 45.5. Weather expected to be decent; 25 degrees with a small chance of snow.

Indianapolis at Baltimore
CRIS Opener: Baltimore -6.5 O/U 46.5
CRIS Current: Baltimore -7 (-115) O/U 47

Earlier today, all of the 6.5's were taken out as Baltimore is now a touchdown favorite across the board. Read more


Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Indianapolis Colts Washington Redskins Seattle Seahawks Green Bay Packers Minnesota Vikings Houston Texans Cincinnati Bengals




NFL Gambling Preview: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

12.13.2012     01:57 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Indianapolis at Houston
Teddy Covers' Recommendation:
Indianapolis
CRIS Opener: Houston -8 O/U 49
CRIS Current: Houston -9 O/U 48
Teddy's Power Rating: Houston -8

The Texans are a paper tiger, a fraud.  They spent much of the season beating up on the weak, and even those wins haven't come easily of late.  Jacksonville (2-11) scored 37 against the Texans stop unit, making Chad Henne look like a pro bowler with 354 yards and four touchdowns off the bench.  They managed to beat Detroit (4-9) in OT only because Lions head coach Jim Schwartz threw an illegal challenge flag that resulted in an 81-yard touchdown that should never have been.  Against the Titans’ miserable defense, the Texans managed only five first downs in the entire second half.  And we all saw what happened on MNF when Houston traveled to New England – a complete, confidence sapping Read more


Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts Houston Texans Teddy Covers




NFL Betting Alert: Markets come in on New England and the OVER for MNF

12.10.2012     08:28 AM     Printer Friendly
Houston at New England -5.5 O/U 52

Seen a significant push towards New England and the OVER for tonight’s Monday Night contest against the Houston Texans. The Patriots were -4 and got bounced up to -5.5. The total was sitting 51 and is now up to 52 at most offshore books. Line history courtesy of CRIS.

copy_NE_HOU.JPG



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Houston Texans




NFL Handicapping: Injury concerns for New England Patriots and Houston Texans

12.05.2012     02:06 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Houston at New England -3 O/U 51.5

Two good breakdowns on all of the offensive injuries for New England and defensive injuries for Houston heading into Monday night's showdown in Foxboro. Most of the money this week has come in on the underdog. The Patriots opened -4.5 but you can currently find as cheap as -3 (-120) offshore.



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Houston Texans




Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Looking at the contenders in the AFC

12.03.2012     09:49 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I spent the last few Sunday’s concentrating on some pretty bad football teams. It’s December now; time to shift my focus towards the other end of the spectrum. This week, I focused on four AFC Playoff contenders. Which teams have the potential to do some damage when January rolls around and which are frauds? Read on to find out!

Indianapolis - Indy is certainly not a Super Bowl contender. But given that they were seven point underdogs at 4-7 Detroit, the betting markets aren’t even calling the Colts a playoff caliber team. Even with starting cornerback Vontae Davis back in the lineup following a four game injury absence, the pass defense spent all afternoon getting torched. Where's the pass rush? Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis were non-factors here.

The offensive line got dominated by Detroit’s front four for most of the afternoon. Andrew Luck was beaten up, taking one big hit after the next. Coming into the game with four fumbles and 10 INTs in five previous road games, Luck's emphasis was on ball security here. That emphasis didn’t work. He hit seven different receivers in the first half, but also threw a pair Read more


Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens Houston Texans Teddy Covers




NFL Betting: New England Patriots and Houston Texans top consensus plays for Week 13

12.02.2012     07:47 AM     Printer Friendly
Quick run through of the top consensus plays for NFL Week 13 according to Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets made on a side/total/moneyline.

Top Sides
New England -7 88.2%
Houston -7 86.9%
Carolina -3 83.0%
Cincinnati -1 80.8%
San Francisco -7 80.6%

Top Totals
Indianapolis-Detroit OVER 51 82.2%
Philadelphia-Dallas OVER 44 80.4%
Minnesota-Green Bay OVER 47 77.2%
New England-Miami OVER 51 75.0%
San Francisco-St. Louis OVER 40.5 74.6%

Top Moneylines
Oakland +115 100.0%
Indianapolis +275 77.9%
Green Bay -375 75.7%
New England  -365 69.4%
Kansas City +190 67.7%



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Houston Texans



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