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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Dissecting the NFL's bottom feeders
11.19.2012 12:26 PM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Over the last few weeks, I’ve been watching the contenders from both conferences closely. This week, I turned my focus towards the bottom feeders; teams that some folks have been calling ‘dead’ in recent weeks.
With six games remaining on the slate for every NFL team, there’s still plenty of time to make money fading the teams that have quit on their coach and their season. And there’s most definitely an opportunity to make money with last place teams IF they play with passion and precision down the stretch.
Here’s my take on four teams that entered Sunday’s games in last place in their respective divisions.
Kansas City
- We're 11 weeks into the season, and this sorry Chiefs offense hasn't improved one iota. There's talent to work with – Jamal Charles and Peyton Hillis make a decent 'thunder and lightning' duo running the football. Dwayne Bowe, Tony Moeaki, Dexter McCluster and Steve Breaston have all enjoyed past success as playmaking pass catchers, although Bowe got hurt early and wasn’t a factor here.
But the same two issues that have plagued KC all year haven't gone
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Tags:
NFL
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Jets
Teddy Covers
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: AFC Contenders and Pretenders
11.12.2012 11:47 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
November is the time in the NFL where we separate contenders from pretenders. Last week, I focused on the NFC; this week, I’ll turn to the AFC. Unfortunately, the Colts and Steelers didn’t play on Sunday, and the Texans’ Sunday Night game was played in weather conditions that affected the game (and the game plan) significantly. Who among the rest can challenge for AFC supremacy? Read on to find out.
Denver Broncos
- Another slow start for a West Coast team traveling East; certainly not unusual. Slow starts have been a consistent problem for Denver all year. We saw them fall behind by three scores when they faced Atlanta, Houston and San Diego – three of the tougher foes they've faced. But slow starts are about the only fault I can find with this team right now.
We already know how good Denver’s offense can be, and they score touchdowns : 22 TDs in 32 red zone possessions. The Broncos have an elite quarterback, a strong running game and playmaking WR's - they can trade points with anybody. This team's postseason future rests on the strength (or weakness) of their stop unit; a unit that has stepped up at times and
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Tags:
NFL
New England Patriots
San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Ravens
Denver Broncos
Miami Dolphins
Teddy Covers
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NFL Handicapper Free Play: Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
11.11.2012 07:09 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Tennessee
+6.5 at
Miami
O/U 44
Recommendation: Tennessee
The Dolphins haven’t exactly been beating up on quality foes. Their four wins this season have come against the Raiders, Bengals, Rams and Jets. Two of those four wins came by four points or less, not enough to cover this pointspread. In the two games where Miami has been favored, they’ve won by three and lost by three, failing to cover the number each time. The Dolphins have been outgained by nearly 550 yards over the last three weeks. And, long term, simply betting the underdog in every Dolphins game has produced a remarkable 36-13 ATS streak, including a 6-1 ATS run entering Sunday’s game.
If there’s one game all year that we can expect the Titans to show up for, it’s this one. Tennessee was thoroughly embarrassed and humiliated on their home field last Sunday; a game that was over by the end of the first quarter. Owner Bud Adams was not amused:
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: NFC Contenders and Pretenders
11.05.2012 08:17 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
November is the time in the NFL where we separate contenders from pretenders. This week, I focused on the NFC. My power ratings have the Giants, 49ers and Falcons as the top three teams in the conference. Who among the rest can challenge for NFC supremacy? Read on to find out.
Chicago Bears
- This offense just isn't working. Facing a bottom tier defense, Jay Cutler still couldn’t find any receivers open downfield. They committed their 17th false start penalty in the first quarter here, by far the most in the NFL. Starting a drive from their own ten yard line, a false start immediately followed by an illegal hands to the face penalty resulted in a safety. Chicago is ranked #30 in the NFL in passing despite facing a soft early schedule; not what we're used to seeing from Super Bowl contenders in the modern age of football.
Chicago’s blocked punt TD is just one more example of how good these special teams right now. Devin Hester's punt return inside the Titans ten yard line is another, setting up the Bears second score. And a good part of the reason why their passing numbers are so weak is because they've been leading throughout the
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Seattle Seahawks
Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions
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NFL Gambling Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants
10.31.2012 11:47 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Pittsburgh
at
New York Giants
Teddy Covers' Recommendation:
Over
Sunday, 1:25 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New York -3.5 O/U 47
CRIS Current:
New York -3 (-120) O/U 47.5
The betting markets are having a hard time pricing the Giants correctly this year. The defending Super Bowl champs have clear weaknesses. Their defense is leaky, allowing 6.2 yards per play against them – only the Saints and Bills have been worse in that advanced metric stat. And those weak defensive numbers have come against one of the weaker schedules in the NFL, facing only one opponent with a winning record all year.
The Giants have been outrushed on a yards per carry basis and it’s getting worse, not better – Ahmad Bradshaw has been held under four yards per carry in each of their last two ballgames. And the Giants seem to play better football away from home than they do in the new Met-Life Stadium. They are 1-3 ATS as home chalk
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Pre- and Post-Bye Week Teams
10.29.2012 11:45 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Last week, I wrote about the three strongest prevailing angles for the 2012 NFL season. Let me update the numbers from a week ago.
NFC Underdogs – any underdog in any game – have gone 37-12-2 ATS this season. But that angle has now suffered back-to-back losing weeks, looking like it’s come and gone as the market has adjusted to reflect the NFC’s dominance – just 3-5 ATS in Week 8 after a 2-3-1 ATS mark in Week 7.
Teams heading into the bye week are now 1-14 ATS, discounting the games where one pre-bye team faced off against another. The Jets were the only team to fall into this category on Sunday, with the 49ers pending on Monday Night. This trend is still very live; 0-3 ATS over the past two weeks.
And teams coming out of the bye are on a 9-5 ATS streak; again discounting the games where one post-bye team faced another. But that trend seems to e flat lining: 2-2 ATS in Week 7 followed by another 2-2 ATS performance in Week 8.
What’s really going on with these pre-bye or post-bye squads? For the second straight week, I focused my attention on five teams in one of these two roles.
Miami
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Atlanta Falcons
New York Jets
New England Patriots
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NFL Handicapper Free Play: Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears
10.28.2012 07:22 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Carolina
+7.5 at
Chicago
O/U 42
Recommendation: Carolina
Carolina is 1-5 this year, coming off the heels of a 6-10 campaign last season. But the Panthers certainly aren’t a case of total ineptitude – they’re in almost every game right through the final gun. Rather, the Panthers problem in the Ron Rivera/Cam Newton era has been the inability to win tight games. They’re 0-4 this year in games decided by a TD or less, much like last year when the Panthers went 1-5 in close games.
That record includes a tight, spread covering five point loss right here at Soldier Field against the Bears; a game in which the Panthers offense rolled up more than 500 yards of offense, outgaining the Bears by a full 225 yards! Match Carolina up against a +7.5 pointspread and we’re talking about a team that is 16-6 ATS in the first 22 games of the Newton/Rivera era. Quite simply, this pointspread is a notch or two too high.
The Bears are not a strong offensive team
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NFL Gambling Preview: Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles
10.25.2012 03:23 PM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Atlanta
at
Philadelphia
Teddy Covers' Recommendation:
Philadelphia
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Philadelphia -2.5 O/U 46.5
CRIS Current:
Philadelphia -3 O/U 45
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Philadelphia -1.5
Andy Reid took over as the Eagles head coach prior to the 1999 campaign. Here are his results as Philly’s head coach following the Eagles dozen bye weeks in the Reid era:
1999: Eagles (+ 8.5) 38, Rams 31
2000: Eagles (-10) 16, Bengals 7
2001: Eagles (+3) 10, Giants 9
2002: Eagles (-3) 20, Bucs 10
2003: Eagles (+3) 23, Bills 13
2004: Eagles (-9.5) 30, Panthers 8
2005: Eagles (-4.5) 20, Chargers 17
2006: Eagles (-7) 27, Redskins 3
2007: Eagles (-4) 16, NYJ 9
2008: Eagles (-9.5) 27, Falcons 14
2009: Eagles (-15.5) 33, Bucs 14
2010: Eagles (-3.5) 26, Colts 24
2011: Eagles (-3) 34, Cowboys 7
Yes, that’s a 13-0 SU mark
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: NFL betting trends and Week 7 recap
10.22.2012 08:19 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
There are three strong prevailing trends this season in the NFL.
NFC Underdogs – any underdog in any game – have gone 34-7-2 ATS this season, even after suffering their first losing week of the season (2-3-1 ATS in Week 7).
Teams heading into the bye week are 1-13 ATS, discounting the games where one pre-bye team faced off against another (0-2 ATS in Week 7).
And teams coming out of the bye are on a 7-2 ATS streak heading into the Bears-Lions showdown on Monday Night (2-1 ATS so far in Week 7).
All three trends pass the “Does it make any sense?” test. The NFC underdogs trend has a relatively simple explanation. All the worst teams in the NFL are in the AFC this year. Carolina, St Louis and Tampa Bay – the three lowest rated NFC teams in my power ratings – all rank above the likes of Jacksonville, Kansas City, Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Tennessee and Oakland. No surprise, then, that the NFC has dominated interconference play thus far. And without any weaklings to beat up on, we’ve seen NFC favorites struggle to build margins against their in-conference competitors.
The pre-bye trend of
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NFL Betting Preview: Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
10.18.2012 12:20 PM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Dallas
at
Carolina
Teddy Covers' Recommendation:
Under
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Dallas -2 O/U 44.5
CRIS Current:
Dallas -2 O/U 45.5
Rob Veno's Power Ratings:
Carolina -3
Since their blowout win over the Giants on the opening night of the season, the Cowboys are 1-3 SU, their lone victory coming in non-covering fashion at home against Tampa Bay. Dallas’ weaknesses during this slump have been on full display. DeMarcus Ware has six sacks, but the rest of the team has combined for only four – opposing QBs have time to throw without a strong Cowboys pass rush. And DC Rob Ryan’s insistence on using aggressive blitzing tactics in third-and-long situations has burned them repeatedly; unable to get off the field on third downs. With top draft choice CB Morris Claiborne questionable with an ankle injury, that may be a continuing problem again this week.
Tony Romo
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