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NFL Handicapping: Elo Ratings vs. Market Prices Week 5

10.03.2014     10:23 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Link to FiveThirtyEight.com's Elo Ratings and spreads for NFL Week 5. Some of the biggest discrepancies include...

Baltimore at Indianapolis
Market: Indianapolis -3/-3.5
ELO: Indianapolis -2

Buffalo at Detroit
Market: Detroit -7
ELO: Detroit -5.5


Cleveland at Tennessee
Market: Tennessee -2
ELO: Tennessee -4.5

Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Market: New Orleans -10
ELO: New Orleans -7.5

Arizona at Denver
Market: Denver -7.5
ELO: Denver -3.5

 




Tags: NFL




NFL Gambling Update: Houston Texans still talking about playing up-tempo

10.03.2014     07:15 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Houston at Dallas -6 O/U 46.5

Another article on the Houston Texans wanting to pick up the pace offensively. Through four games (2-2 O/U) the Texans are averaging only 61.5 plays per game (26th). As mentioned in a previous blog, it took time for Penn State to play at Bill O’Brien’s prefered tempo.

 

"We've run a lot of our offense," O'Brien said. "I think what we need to do is definitely run it at a more efficient pace and with more efficient production. Meaning, we've got to get our guys where they're able to just go out there and play. Hopefully, with this game plan, we're able to do that.

"It's always going to be part of something that we

Read more



Tags: NFL Houston Texans Dallas Cowboys




NFL Handicapping: Cleveland uses bye week to fix defense

10.03.2014     07:06 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Cleveland Browns said they used the bye week to shore up what has been a very porous defense thus far. The Browns are allowing 425.7 ypg (30th) and 6.4 ypp (31st). As a result, all three of their games have gone over the total. Last year, Cleveland ranked third in the league behind Cincinnati and Seattle with 4.8 ypp allowed. Sunday's opponent, Tennessee, is averaging only 15 ppg.


"Guys got to get more in tune with their playbook," he said. "We have to count on one and other. Everybody is trying to make a play, but you have to let other guys make plays and let your play come to you. You've got to just do your job. We got 11 dudes out there getting paid to do their job, so you've got to understand that and let guys make their plays."






Tags: NFL Cleveland Browns Tennessee Titans




NFL Gambling Alert: Minnesota's Bridgewater OUT, Ponder to start vs. Green Bay

10.02.2014     02:44 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
According to NFL.com's Ian Rapoport, Minnesota's Teddy Bridgewater will not play tonight vs. Green Bay. The Vikings will start Christian Ponder. Green Bay was originally bet down to -7.5 after an opener of -10. Now seeing market buy-back with the current number at -8/-8.5. The total is getting pounded under as we speak with 46.5 the prevailing number.




Tags: NFL Minnesota Vikings Green Bay Packers




NFL Gambling Preview: Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys

10.02.2014     01:38 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Houston at Dallas
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Dallas -4 O/U 46
CRIS Current: Dallas -6 O/U 46.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Dallas -5
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Over

The Cowboys physical offensive line is rapidly becoming a significant factor in their games and there’s an opportunity this week for them to again be a force. Even though the Texans possess a nasty defensive front, their strength is bit one sided with their pass rush capabilities exceeding those of their run stopping. Last week’s 4.2 yards per carry allowed to Buffalo was the best performance from Houston’s run defense this season. That is likely to be problematic for them this week when they face the Dallas OL and NFL rushing leader DeMarco Murray. The new balance in the Dallas offense created by their rushing attack (165.0 rypg) has propelled them to an average of 30.3 ppg (1 defensive TD not included) and 384.3 typg during their Read more



Tags: NFL Houston Texans Dallas Cowboys Rob Veno




NFL Gambling Preview: Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos

10.01.2014     02:31 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Arizona at Denver
Sunday, 1 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Denver -8.5 O/U 49.5
CRIS Current: Denver -7 O/U 48.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Denver -7.5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Under

The defending AFC champion Broncos have yet to cover a pointspread in three tries this season; one of only three teams that are winless ATS (the Jets at 0-3-1 ATS and the Jaguars at 0-4 ATS are the other two).  But all three of the Broncos ATS defeats deserve at least a little bit of an asterisk attached to them.

In Week 1, Denver was in complete control throughout against the Colts, but Indy made a late rally thanks to a recovered onside kick to lose by only seven points as 7.5 point underdogs.  The following week, the Broncos were again comfortably in control against the Chiefs but a serious of penalties and ‘third and long’ conversions allowed KC to hang around.  The Broncos offense only had two drives Read more



Tags: NFL Arizona Cardinals Denver Broncos Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Alert: Atlanta Falcons lose two offensive linemen

10.01.2014     08:28 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Atlanta at New York Giants -4.5 O/U 50

Cluster injuries for the Atlanta Falcons with two season-enders to offensive linemen Joe Hawley and Lamar Holmes. The defense also lost safety William Moore (shoulder) for up to eight weeks. The Giants opened Sunday's game -3 but have since been bet up to -4/-4.5.


"We feel like we had good depth in our offensive line," Koetter said. "Now we've lost three or four guys who were experienced players for us. It will definitely be a challenge but we feel like these guys are up to the challenge."






Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons New York Giants




NFL Handicapping: Betting markets react to suspension of Indianapolis' Landry

09.30.2014     07:49 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Indianapolis' defense took another hit this week with free safety LaRon Landry suspended for PEDs. Projected starter strong Delano Howell is also gone for the year as is linebacker Robert Mathis. Veteran special teamer Sergio Brown is expected to fill in for Landry. The Colts ranked 26th in the league at 6.0 yards per play allowed. Sunday's total vs. Baltimore has already been hit up from 46.5 to 48.5.




Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts Baltimore Ravens




NFL Monday Night Football Betting Consensus: Over 60% of bets placed on the UNDER

09.29.2014     02:15 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are the top consensus bets (side, total, and moneyline) for tonight's  Monday Night Football game between the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs courtesy of Bookmaker. KC has seen a steady amount of market support with the link down from +4 to +3/+2.5. The total has climbed from 45 to 47.

SIDE
56.8% - New England -3

TOTAL
60.4% - Under 47

MONEYLINE
51.6% - Kansas City +125




Tags: NFL New England Patriots Kansas City Chiefs




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Over/Under Trends

09.29.2014     12:56 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I wrote about the early ATS streakers to open the NFL season; teams that were red hot or ice cold against the spread coming out of the gate.  This week, I’ll focus on teams that have shown a strong totals bias through the first four weeks of the campaign.  Who’s trending Over?  Who’s trending Under?  And, most importantly, why are these teams trending the way they are?  Are the markets close to catching up?  Read on to find out!

One of the more incongruous September NFL trends is that of the Jacksonville Jaguars going 4-0 to the Over.  The Jags are one of only two teams (Oakland is the other) averaging fewer than 15 points per game this year.  And that’s not likely to change dramatically.  Jacksonville’s level of skill position talent is quite possibly the weakest in the NFL.  Toby Gerhart is averaging 2.6 yards per carry; Denard Robinson 3.3.  In four games, their longest run from scrimmage is 13 yards (not including a single Blake Bortles 20 yard scramble).

The Jaguars receiving corps doesn’t keep opposing defensive coordinators up at night.  Allen Hurns, Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers



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