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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFC East Reg Flags

09.02.2014     07:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Bettors react strongly to the NFL Preseason.  First string offenses that look good in August tend to attract betting market support.  The markets are much less reactive to defensive success or failure compared to offensive production.  And bettors tend to largely ignore coaching gameplans; unable to differentiate between coaches who were aggressively trying to set a tone for winning or whether their primary focus was on roster evaluation and personnel decisions.

The two primary areas where preseason results affect the betting markets are adjusting Week 1 numbers and moving the juice on season over/under win totals.  Some of these line moves are absolutely warranted; others are based on erroneous reactions to essentially meaningless football games.

I’m not willing to write off a team’s regular season chances based solely on preseason struggles.  But ignoring those struggles completely is the moral equivalent of sticking your head in the sand. A repeated inability to execute the game plan in August often carries over into September.

One NFL Division had more than their fair share of struggles in August, on at least one Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Preseason Handicapping: San Diego and Arizona play first of a back-to-back

08.27.2014     02:31 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Arizona at San Diego -3 O/U 39

Bettors should be aware that Arizona and San Diego not only close out the preseason but turn right around and play each other in the regular season opener (at Arizona) on Monday, September 9.

“Well, it will be a first for me and I think for a lot of people,” said Head Coach Mike McCoy.  “I think you’re not going to show as many things.  You’re going to do certain things against them you may not be doing in the opener, but I also want to put the players in a position to succeed and give them a chance to make this football team.  We’re going to do what we do.”

Tags: NFL Arizona Cardinals San Diego Chargers

NFL Betting Podcast 8-26-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning

08.26.2014     11:51 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning. Erin and host Andrew Lange previewed the NFC East and NFC North.

Today's segments
Erin Rynning - NFL East and NFC North

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NFL Erin Rynning

NFL Handicapping: Newton's injury not as bad as originally thought, probable for Week 1

08.26.2014     07:12 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Following reports that his season could be over, Cam Newton's fractured ribs appear to be nothing more than a short-term issue. Newton will obviously not play in Saturday's preseason finale at Pittsburgh. But most sources (including Sports Options) have him as probable for Week 1's game at Tampa Bay. When news broke of the injury a few bettors were able to sneak in with wagers on Tampa Bay +1 (Carolina opened -2 back in May). Most sportsbooks have since taken the game off the board.

“I do” expect he’ll play, Rivera said. “But he has to get past the soreness. Then we will see how he starts to progress.”

Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Pittsburgh Steelers Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL Preseason Handicapping: NY Giants plan on playing offensive starters in preseason finale

08.25.2014     12:58 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
New England at New York Giants -3 O/U 42

Following a slightly better showing in Week 3, New York's offensive starters are expected to play "15 to 18 snaps" in Thursday's preseason finale vs. New England. The Giants open the regular season at Detroit on Monday Night Football.

"(The starters are) going to play. They're going to play a little bit," Coughlin said. "It's a long way to the Monday night game."

"We expect to go out there and move the ball and see if we can do something," Manning said. "See if we can get into a good rhythm early in the game instead of having to wait until later."

Tags: NFL New York Giants New England Patriots

NFL Handicapping: With Bradford out, Rams turn to Shaun Hill

08.25.2014     06:53 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
With Sam Bradford (ACL) out for the season the St. Louis Rams will turn to 34-year-old veteran Shaun Hill who was last seen as a back-up in Detroit. Hill's career QB Rating (85.9) is actually higher than Bradford's (79.3) but Hill last started a regular season game in 2010 and has since attempted only 16 passes.  Through three preseason games, Hill completed 8-of-17 passes for 143 yards and two touchdowns. Austin Davis and Garrett Gilbert are the Rams' remaining quarterbacks. It's obviously a tough division for quarterbacks with Seattle (first), San Francisco (fourth), and Arizona (eighth) all ranked among the league leaders in opposing QB Rating. St. Louis closes out the preseason at Miami. They open the regular season at home vs. Minnesota. Prior to Bradford's injury, the Rams were 6-point favorites.

“Shaun’s our guy,” Fisher told reporters. “We brought him here. He’s got experience. We’ve got all the confidence in the world in him.”

“Shaun has a great feeling for the offense right

Read more

Tags: NFL St. Louis Rams

NFL Preseason Betting Consensus: Broncos and Ravens top choices for Saturday

08.23.2014     07:55 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here are the consensus bets for tonight's eight NFL Preseason games. Yesterday bettors went all in with the favorites and overs. Favorites finished 3-2 ATS based on the closing lines. Three of the five games went under the total. For Saturday there appears to be some decent opinion on a few underdogs with Dallas and St. Louis both taking over 70% of bets. Bettors remain sold that these penalty-filled games will find a way to go over the total Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

Houston at Denver -7 (76.9%)
Washington at Baltimore -2.5 (73.1%)
Dallas +3.5 (71.7%) at Miami
St. Louis +2 (70.8%) at Cleveland
Tennessee at Atlanta -3.5 (68.4%)
Tampa Bay at Buffalo (64.8%)
New Orleans +2 (54.0%) at Indianapolis
Minnesota +3 (51.3%) at Kansas City

New Orleans-Indianapolis OVER 47.5 (85.7%)
Houston-Denver OVER 46 (82.6%)
Washington-Baltimore OVER 44 (80.0%)
Tennessee-Atlanta OVER 44 (76.5%)
St. Louis-Cleveland UNDER 43 (67.7%)
Dallas-Miami OVER 46.5 (55.9%)
Tampa Bay-Buffalo OVER 41.5 Read more

Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Baltimore Ravens

NFL Preseason Betting Consensus: Bettors load up on the chalk for Friday night

08.22.2014     12:33 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here are the consensus bets for tonight's five NFL Preseason games. Looks like everyone and their mother...and uncles and cousins are loaded up on home teams and overs. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

Jacksonville at Detroit -3 (76.7%)
NY Giants at NY Jets -1 (73.6%)
Oakland at Green Bay -7 (73.0%)
Chicago at Seattle -7 (63.8%)
Carolina at New England -6.5 (57.6%)

Oakland-Green Bay OVER 44 (80.8%)
Jacksonville-Detroit OVER 44.5 (75.9%)
Chicago-Seattle OVER 45 (74.6%)
Carolina-New England OVER 45.5 (73.8%)
NY Giants-NY Jets OVER 44 (60.0%)

Tags: NFL

NFL Preseason Gambling: Bills' offense desperate for positives

08.22.2014     12:22 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Tampa Bay at Buffalo -3 O/U 41.5

Baby steps, Buffalo Bills. Baby steps. Aware and annoyed that the first-team offense has yet to put the ball in the end zone, the Bills are focused on breaking that trend during Saturday's preseason game vs. Tampa Bay.

"It's an extremely important game for us, especially down in the red zone," he said. "We haven't scored a touchdown there yet."

"I think it's definitely going to come," Manuel said. "I think we will get that touchdown before I'm out."

Tags: NFL Buffalo Bills Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL Preseason Handicapping: Seattle starters to play into third quarter vs. Chicago

08.22.2014     12:13 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Chicago at Seattle -7 O/U 45

The Seattle Seahawks look to be all business for tonight's preseason game vs. Chicago. Pete Carroll said the starters will play into the third quarter. Tarvaris Jackson will follow Russell Wilson and if time permits, Terrell Pryor will take some snaps. Seattle is 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS in the third game of the preseason under Carroll. The Seahawks opened -6.5 but were quickly bet to -7 with a few Las Vegas sportsbooks currently dealing -7.5.

Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks Chicago Bears


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