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NFL Handicapping: Early line moves for Divisional Round

01.06.2014     07:42 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Next week's NFL Divisional Round playoff matchups are set and lines have been posted both offshore and in Las Vegas. So far we haven’t seen a significant amount of market activity. There was/is some differing opinion on the Colts-Patriots game with LVH opening NE -9 and most of Las Vegas currently -7.5. Offshore, most shops have NE -7 with juice. A few (CRIS, Heritage) are offering 7 -110 on both sides.

New Orleans at Seattle
Saturday, 1:35 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: Seattle -8 O/U 48
CRIS Current: Seattle -8 O/U 48
LVH Opener: Seattle -7.5 O/U 48
LVH Current: Seattle -8 O/U 47.5



Indianapolis at New England
Saturday, 5:15 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener: New England -7 O/U 52.5
CRIS Current: New England -7 O/U 52.5
LVH Opener: New England Read more



Tags: NFL




NFL Gambling Recap: Teams with better strength of schedule sweep Wild Card Round

01.06.2014     07:30 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Taking a look back at our NFL Wild Card Round Strength of schedule betting trend. From a straight up perspective, this year's SOS teams swept the board with Indianapolis, New Orleans, San Diego, and San Francisco all winning outright. Against the spread, the results vary. The Chargers and Saints were easy covers no matter what number you bet. The Colts won by 1 and spent much of the week as 2.5-point favorites before a flood of Chiefs money came in game day and made KC a 2.5-point favorite before closing -2/-1.5. San Francisco opened -2.5 and slowly trickled up to -3 before steam pushed it up to as high as -3.5 at a few shops (Grande, 5Dimes) whereas other shops held on to -3 with heavy juice. The game of course landed three with the 49ers prevailing 23-20. In the end if you grade the games using early week numbers it comes out to 3-1 ATS. That pushes the SOS trend 36-12 SU and 35-13 ATS since 2002. And if you grade Indy as an underdog, teams catching points with better SOS are now 14-8 SU and 17-5 ATS.




Read more



Tags: NFL




NFL Wild Card Round Betting Recap

01.06.2014     07:08 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Excellent betting recap of the NFL Wild Card Round for our friend Stat Intelligence. Check out the links below...

Indianapolis (+1.5) 45, Kansas City 44

New Orleans (+3) 26, at Philadelphia 24

San Diego (+6.5) 27 at Cincinnati 10

San Francisco 23 at Green Bay (+3.5) 20




Tags: NFL Stat Intellingence




NFL Betting News: Seattle and Denver co-Super Bowl XLVIII favorites

01.03.2014     07:36 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Quick look at Pinnacle's current NFL Futures market...

To Win Super Bowl XLVIII
Seattle +244
Denver +263
New England +782
Carolina +872
San Francisco +906
Philadelphia +1460
Cincinnati +1552
Green Bay +1750
New Orleans +1999
Indianapolis +2612
Kansas City +2613
San Diego +3107

To Win NFC
Seattle -118
Carolina +497
San Francisco +619
Green Bay +1042
Philadelphia +1100
New Orleans +1440

To Win AFC
Denver -142
New England +281
Cincinnati +733
Kansas City +1408
Indianapolis +1556
San Diego +1817




Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks Denver Broncos Super Bowl XLVIII




NFL Handicapping: San Francisco-Green Bay slated for sub-zero temps

01.03.2014     07:24 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Green Bay Packers could play host to five of the top 10 coldest games in NFL history with temperatures expected to be well below zero for Sunday’s 3:30 pm local start against the San Francisco 49ers.

Here are the results of the games on the top 10 list we could find data for…

2007 – NY Giants at Green Bay: 23-20 OT OVER 40
1995 – Indianapolis at Kansas City: 10-7 UNDER 40
1993 – LA Raiders at Green Bay: 0-20 UNDER 32
1993 – LA Raiders at Buffalo: 23-29 OVER 32
1990 – Detroit at Green Bay: 24-17 OVER35




Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Green Bay Packers




NFL Gambling: San Francisco 49ers the top consensus pick for Wild Card weekend

01.03.2014     07:03 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are the top consensus bets for this weekend's NFL Wild Card Round matchups courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

Sides
San Francisco -2.5 (77.4%) at Green Bay
San Diego at Cincinnati -6.5 (70.7%)
Kansas City at Indianapolis -1.5 (59.5%)
New Orleans at Philadelphia -2.5 (51.6%)

Totals
San Diego at Cincinnati OVER 46.5 (77.3%)
Kansas City at Indianapolis OVER 46 (68.0%)
San Francisco at Green Bay UNDER 46 (62.4%)
New Orleans at Philadelphia OVER 54 (50.4%)

Moneyline
New Orleans +125 (70.7%) at Philadelphia
Kansas City ev (67.0%) at Indianapolis
San Diego +232 (65.7%) at Cincinnati
San Francisco -135 (58.7%) at Green Bay




Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers




NFL Handicapping: Green Bay's up-tempo offense ready to roll with Rodgers and Cobb healthy

01.02.2014     08:24 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
San Francisco -3 at Green Bay O/U 46

Aaron Rodgers' return has garnered a lot of pub but with receiver Randall Cobb back as well, the Packers feel the offense is ready for bigger and better things. Cobb, who hadn't played since Week 6, caught two touchdown passes in Green Bay's win over Chicago. Rodgers noted that Cobb is a big key to the team's up-tempo attack. Against the Bears, the Packers ran 76 plays.


“Well, myself and Randall are back, that helps,’’ Rodgers said. “We had a couple good connections on Sunday. It’s doing the stuff we want to do. We want to be an up-tempo team, we want to get a lot of plays run, we want to try to wear the defense down a little bit.”

“Randall does so much for our offense. We can give him the ball, we can get it to him

Read more



Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers San Francisco 49ers




Meet this winner of this year's LVH SuperContest

01.02.2014     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly
Article on the gentleman who won this year's LVH SuperContest. The Chicago trader needed San Francisco to beat Arizona in Week 17 – the 49ers kicked a field goal with no time on the clock to win 23-20. He plans on donating half of his $557K winnings to charity.




Tags: NFL




Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap the First Round of the NFL Playoffs

12.31.2013     12:01 PM     Printer Friendly
Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap the First Round of the NFL Playoffs

The theory is actually quite simple; since 2002, teams with a higher Strength of Schedule (using Sagarin’s Ratings) are a remarkable 32-12 straight up and 32-12 against the spread (73% winners) regardless of price and location. Even more amazing is that teams with a SOS differential of 10 or more went 20-3 SU, 20-3 ATS (87% winners). Taking it step further, teams with a better SOS that are underdogs went 11-8 SU, 14-5 ATS. Underdogs with a SOS rating of 10 or better went 7-3 ATS and 8-2 ATS.

NFL Playoff Strength of Schedule Betting Trend 2002-13
Year
Away (SOS)
Home (SOS)
Score
SOS SU
SOS ATS
2012
Cincinnati (31)
Houston (27) -4.5
HOU 19, CIN 13
Win
Win
2012
Minnesota (6) +8
Green Bay (8)
GB 24, MIN 10
Loss
Loss
2012
Indianapolis (32)
Baltimore (18) -6.5
BAL 24, IND 9
Win
Win
2012
Seattle (5) -3
Washington (15)
SEA 24, WAS 14
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2011
Cincinnati (23) +3
Houston (32)
HOU 31, CIN 10
Loss
Loss
2011
Detroit (4) +10.5
New Orleans (31)
NO 45, DET 28
Loss
Loss
2011
NY Giants (6) -3
Atlanta (21)
NYG 24, ATL 2
Win
Win
2011
Denver (8) +8
Pittsburgh (26)
DEN 29, PIT 23
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2010
New Orleans (25)
Seattle (28) +14.5
SEA 41, NO 36
Loss
Loss
2010
NY Jets (8) +1
Indianapolis (21)
NYJ 17, IND 16
Win
Win
2010
Baltimore (12) -3
Kansas City (32)
BAL 30, KC 7
Win
Win
2010
Green Bay (9) +1
Philadelphia (16)
GB 21, PHI 16
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2009
Philadelphia (13) +3.5
Dallas (14)
DAL 34, PHI 13
Loss
Loss
2009
Green Bay (32)
Arizona (28) +2.5
ARI 51, GB 45
Win
Win
2009
NY Jets (4) +2.5
Cincinnati (17)
NYJ 24, CIN 14
Win
Win
2009
Baltimore (10)
New England (6) -3.5
BAL 33, NE 14
Loss
Loss
 
 
 
 
 
 
2008
Baltimore (3) -3.5
Miami (26)
BAL 27, MIA 9
Win
Win
2008
Indianapolis (10) -1.5
San Diego (17)
SD 23, IND 17
Loss
Loss
2008
Philadelphia (5) -3
Minnesota (14)
PHI 26, MIN 14
Win
Win
2008
Atlanta (24)
Arizona (16) -1.5
ARI 30, ATL 24
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2007
NY Giants (2) +3
Tampa Bay (24)
NYG 24, TB 14
Win
Win
2007
Washington (1) +3
Seattle (35)
SEA 35, WAS 14
Loss
Loss
2007
Tennessee (18)
San Diego (6) -10.5
SD 17, TEN 6
Win
Win
2007
Jacksonville (13) -2.5
Pittsburgh (27)
JAX 31, PIT 29
Win
Loss
 
 
 
 
 
 
2006
NY Jets (8)
New England (4) -9.5
NE 37, NYJ 16
Win
Win
2006
Kansas City (17)
Indianapolis (5) -7
IND 23, KC 8
Win
Win
2006
NY Giants (9) +6.5
Philadelphia (21)
PHI 23, NYG 20
Loss
Win
2006
Dallas (23) +2.5
Seattle (30)
SEA 21, DAL 20
Loss
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2005
Carolina (24)
NY Giants (17) -3
CAR 23, NYG 0
Loss
Loss
2005
Washington (3) +1
Tampa Bay (32)
WAS 17, TB 10
Win
Win
2005
Pittsburgh (4) -3
Cincinnati (13)
PIT 31, CIN 17
Win
Win
2005
Jacksonville (25)
New England (8) -7.5
NE 28, JAX 3
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2004
Denver (14)
Indianapolis (11) -10
IND 49, DEN 24
Win
Win
2004
NY Jets (4) +7
San Diego (18)
NYJ 20, SD 17
Win
Win
2004
St. Louis (22) +3.5
Seattle (29)
STL 27, SEA 20
Win
Win
2004
Minnesota (21) +6.5
Green Bay (26)
MIN 31, GB 17
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2003
Dallas (18)
Carolina (13) -3
CAR 29, DAL 10
Win
Win
2003
Seattle (27)
Green Bay (23) -7.5
GB 33, SEA 27
Win
Loss
2003
Denver (19)
Indianapolis (4) -3
IND 41, DEN 10
Win
Win
2003
Tennessee (6) -1
Baltimore (28)
TEN 20, BAL 17
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2002
Cleveland (17) +8
Pittsburgh (20)
PIT 36, CLE 33
Loss
Win
2002
Indianapolis (28)
NY Jets (5) -6
NYJ 41, IND 0
Win
Win
2002
NY Giants (30)
San Francisco (11) -3
SF 39, NYG 38
Win
Loss
2002
Atlanta (6) +7
Green Bay (27)
ATL 27, GB 7
Win
Win
Results
 
 
 
32-12 SU
32-12 ATS


In 2002 the NFL expanded to its current format of 32 teams; eight divisions with four teams each. There wasn’t much upheaval as the leagued added the Houston Texans to the AFC and Seattle switched to the NFC. Two new divisions were created as the league kept the integrity of the established divisional rivalries pretty much intact. The playoff format was modified so that four division winners and two wild cards from each conference would advance to the playoffs.

Two regular scheduling changes were implemented based on the Read more



Tags: NFL




NFL Handicapping: An early look at Wild Card Round line moves

12.30.2013     07:30 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Next weekend's NFL Wild Card matchups are set which means that betting markets are in motion. Let's take a look at each game and where they early money have moved both offshore and in Las Vegas. For more Wild Card line move analysis be sure to tune into today’s Sportsmemo Podcast segment with handicapper Teddy Covers. It will be posted by 10 am PT.

Kansas City at Indianapolis
CRIS Opener: Indianapolis -2.5 O/U 46
LVH Opener: Indianapolis -2.5 O/U 46
CRIS Current: Indianapolis -2.5 O/U 46.5
LVH Current: Indianapolis -2.5 O/U 46.5

Comments: Not a lot of movement outside of a half point jump in the total. Some other offshore books have taken Colts money with the juice now -120.

New Orleans at Philadelphia
CRIS Opener: Philadelphia -2.5 O/U 54.5
LVH Opener: Philadelphia -2.5 O/U 55
CRIS Current: Philadelphia -2.5 (-115) O/U 54.5
LVH Current: Philadelphia -2.5 O/U 54.5

Comments: Same deal as KC-Indy with minimal movement if any.

San Diego at Cincinnati
CRIS Opener: Read more



Tags: NFL Kansas City Chiefs Philadelphia Eagles San Francisco 49ers San Diego Chargers Cincinnati Bengals Green Bay Packers New Orleans Saints Indianapolis Colts



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Drew Martin. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   May 23, 2015 08:04 PM.