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NFL coaches behind the curve when it comes to analytics

02.20.2014     12:18 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good article by Nate Silver in ESPN The Magazine's upcoming Analytics Issue. It discusses the relationship between statistics and what people do (or in the case of NFL head coaches, don't do) in terms of applying them.

 

According to 4th Down Bot, NFL teams kicked or punted when they should have gone for it 693 times in the past regular season, or 21.7 mishandled situations per team.






Tags: NFL




Las Vegas sportsbooks rake in $19.6 million on Super Bowl XLVIII

02.04.2014     06:16 AM     Printer Friendly
Super Bowl XLVIII proved to be a profitable one for Las Vegas sportsbooks – and by profitable, we mean they absolutely crushed. A record $119.4 million was wagered and the books won $19.6 million – a ridiculous 16.5% return. It could have been worse had the first score of the game not been a safety.

Las Vegas Super Bowl Profits 1995-2014
Year
Matchup
Wagered
Net Profit
Win%
2014
Seattle 43, Denver 8
$119,400,822
$19,673,960
16.5%
2013
Baltimore 34, San Francisco 31
$98,936,798
$7,206,460
7.30%
2012
NY Giants 21, New England 17
$93,899,840
$5,064,470
5.40%
2011
Green Bay 31, Pittsburgh 25
$87,491,098
$724,176
0.83%
2010
New Orleans 31, Indianapolis 17
$82,726,367
$6,857,101
8.30%
2009
Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 23
$81,514,748
$6,678,044
8.20%
2008
NY Giants 17, New England 14
$92,055,833
($2,573,103)
-2.80%
2007
Indianapolis 29, Chicago 17
$93,067,358
$12,930,175
13.90%
2006
Pittsburgh 21, Seattle 10
$94,534,372
$8,828,431
9.30%
2005
New Engand 24, Philadelphia 21
$90,759,236
$15,430,138
17.00%
2004
New England 32, Carolina 29
$81,242,191
$12,440,698
15.30%
2003
Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21
$71,693,032
$5,264,963
7.30%
2002
New England 20, St. Louis 17
$71,513,304
$2,331,607
3.30%
2001
Baltimore 34, NY Giants 7
$67,661,425
$11,002,636
16.30%
2000
St. Louis 23, Tennessee 16
$71,046,751
$4,237,978
6.00%
1999
Denver 34, Atlanta 19
$75,986,520
$2,906,601
3.80%
1998
Denver 31, Green Bay 24
$77,253,246
$472,033
0.60%
1997
Green Bay 35, New England 21
$70,853,211
$2,265,701
3.20%
1996
Dallas 27, Pittsburgh 17
$70,907,801
$7,126,145
10.10%
1995
San Francisco 49, San Diego 26
$69,591,818
($396,674)
-0.60%
 
 
$1,662,135,771
$128,471,540
7.72%





Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLVIII Las Vegas




Super Bowl XLVIII Gambling: Las Vegas sportsbooks clean up

02.03.2014     07:58 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Outside of the safety to open Super Bowl XLVIII, everything went right for the Las Vegas sportsbooks.


“The patrons went 0-2 — crappy game and lost money,” William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said. “It was a good day for the books.”

“That safety was a torch job,” Bogdanovich said. “It’s not a fun way to start off the day, getting six figures in the hole.”

“We were down $62,000 on the first play of the game,” Vaccaro reported. “We got dinged pretty good on that one, and a few others as the game went on.”







Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLVIII Las Vegas




Super Bowl XLVIII Prop Bet: Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards

02.02.2014     08:54 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards
Recommendation: Over


This line is all over the board offshore and I’m sure it is in Vegas as well. The best number I’ve seen offshore is 40.5 -115 at Heritage. I’ve also seen as high as 43.5 +100 at Bookmaker. Try to get the best number you can, you never know when that yard or half a yard will matter.

Doug Baldwin doesn’t get much in the way of national media attention and he is far from a Pro Bowl caliber receiver. But he might just be Russell Wilson’s favorite target right now and I think that gives us an edge with this prop.

Baldwin has big play ability which can go a long way to helping us cash this bet. He posted a catch of over 20 yards in 13 games this year and had 10 games where he had more than 40 receiving yards. That includes his season high 106 yard effort against a tough 49ers defense in the NFC Championship. This week he takes a step down in competition against Football Outsiders’ 21st ranked pass defense.

Percy Harvin’s return is the big story and I’m sure Seattle will try to get him involved. But I don’t think that fact Read more



Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks Denver Broncos Super Bowl XLVIII Otto Sports




Super Bowl XLVIII Gambling: Teddy Covers chats with Business Insider

02.02.2014     08:20 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Business Insider did a Q&A with Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers on how he's betting Super Bowl XLVIII. Read it here.


I have Total Sacks under 4 and 1/2. That's -155. There's juice attached to that. And with many of the prop bets that I make, I will be laying a fair bit of 'juice'. There's a simple thought process. In general, recreational players are looking to bet a little bit to win a lot. And in general, professional bettors are more than willing to lay a price to win a little. So, I'm comfortable laying some extra juice with this particular wager because 4 1/2 sacks is a lot considering that Peyton Manning doesn't take sacks and Manning and...Russell Wilson has that scramble ability that allows him to escape a front presser at times. So you put those two factors together and with the fact that neither team is particularly blitz heavy team and the other 4 1/2 sacks is a great bet.

 




Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl XLVIII Teddy Covers




Super Bowl XLVIII Gambling: Blog recap

01.31.2014     02:03 PM     Printer Friendly


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl XLVIII




Watch Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers talk Super Bowl XLVIII on Bloomberg TV

01.31.2014     10:13 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Here's a link to the video of Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers talking Super Bowl XLVIII on Bloomberg TV. Teddy looking mighty dapper!





Sportsmemo's Teddy Covers on Bloomberg TV

01.30.2014     10:46 AM     View Original Blog


Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers will be talking Super Bowl XLVIII on Bloomberg TV's 'Street Smart' with Trish Regan and Adam Johnson at 1:30 pm PT this afternoon.




Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl XLVIII Teddy Covers




Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News: Denver Broncos remain public darling

01.31.2014     08:23 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It's no secret that the "public" has sided with the Denver Broncos. Offshore sportsbooks like Bookmaker are reporting 77% of bets have been placed on Denver. In Las Vegas, the Broncos have been the "it" team all season and multiple shops are reporting heavy prop bet action on Payton Manning "overs."


“We needed to root against the Broncos every single week except for one,” said Nick Bogdanovich, director of William Hill sports books. “When they played the Patriots in the playoffs, we needed the Broncos and they came through for us. But with 16 regular-season games and two in the playoffs, that’s 17 out of 18 games we were against them.”

“Everything with Manning is drawing money already,” Bogdanovich said. “That’s where we’re writing most of our business — passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards, longest completion, everything.”







Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl XLVIII




Animals handicapping the Super Bowl continues to be a thing

01.31.2014     08:04 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Trying to cash in on the untimely death of Princess The Football Handicapping Camel, Eli The Football Handicapping Ape has gone public with this year's Super Bowl XLVIII pick...the Seattle Seahawks. Eli has reportedly cashed six straight Super Bowl winners.




Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLVIII




Super Bowl XLVIII Gambling News: Total moves from 47 to 48.5

01.31.2014     07:49 AM     Printer Friendly
About freakin' time! Yesterday we actually saw a line move for Sunday's Super Bowl XLVIII. With the weather expected to be decent, the total got pounded up from 47 to 48.5 (still some 47.5's left in Vegas if you hustle). It actually got as high as 49.5 before some buy-back. Below is CRIS's recent line history.

copy_SB_total.JPG




Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl XLVIII



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 01, 2015 11:08 AM.