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December

8

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NFL Handicapping: Divisional Round pointspreads and power ratings

01.05.2015     07:49 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Quick run through of the pointspreads and power ratings for this weekend's NFL Divisional Round playoff matchups.

Baltimore at New England
CRIS Opener: New England -7
CRIS Current: New England -7
Veno Power: New England -7
Sagarin: New England -7

Carolina at Seattle
CRIS Opener: Seattle -11.5
CRIS Current: Seattle -11
Veno Power: Seattle -11.5
Sagarin: Seattle -13


Dallas at Green Bay
CRIS Opener: Green Bay -6.5
CRIS Current: Green Bay -6.5
Veno Power: Green Bay -6.5
Sagarin: Green Bay -5

Indianapolis at Denver
CRIS Opener: Denver -7
CRIS Current: Denver -7
Veno Power: Denver -6.5
Sagarin: Denver -5




Tags: NFL




NFL Gambling Alert: Potential wet weather for Saturday's Wild Card games

01.02.2015     12:14 PM     Printer Friendly
As always, you'll want to double check the weather report the day of the game.

Charlotte
copy_carolina_weather.JPG

Pittsburgh
copy_pitt_weather.JPG

 




Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers Baltimore Ravens Arizona Cardinals Carolina Panthers




NFL Handicapping: Elo Ratings vs. Market Prices vs. Power Ratings - Wild Card Round

01.02.2015     11:47 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Link to FiveThirtyEight.com's Elo Ratings, spreads, and Power Ratings for this weekend's NFL Wild Card round.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Elo: Pittsburgh -4
Market: Pittsburgh -3
Veno Power: Pittsburgh -2

Arizona at Carolina
Elo: Carolina -0.5
Market: Carolina -6.5
Veno Power: Carolina -1

Detroit at Dallas
Elo: Dallas -5.5
Market: Dallas -6.5
Veno Power: Dallas -3

Cincinnati at Indianapolis
Elo: Indianapolis -2.5
Market: Indianapolis -3/-3.5
Veno Power: Indianapolis -3




Tags: NFL Rob Veno




NFL Gambling Update: Cantor bumps Carolina to -7

01.01.2015     08:23 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Know for taking large bets and offering opinion with its lines, Cantor (CG Technology) didn't even bother moving to Carolina to -6.5. Their last recorded line move came on Tuesday when they moved the Panthers from -5.5 to -6. Then this morning, a lone wolf -7 popped up. It'll be interesting to see if the rest of the market heads that way or stays in the -6.5/-6 range.

copy_carolina_seven.JPG








NFL Handicapping: Carolina Panthers bet up to 6-point favorites vs. Arizona Cardinals

12.30.2014     01:37 PM     View Original Blog


Pretty amazing that a few weeks ago Arizona had a shot to earn the top seed in the NFC and Carolina had less than a 10 percent chance to Read more



Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Arizona Cardinals




NFL Handicapping: Carolina Panthers bet up to 6-point favorites vs. Arizona Cardinals

12.30.2014     01:37 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Pretty amazing that a few weeks ago Arizona had a shot to earn the top seed in the NFC and Carolina had less than a 10 percent chance to make the playoffs. Now we see the Panthers not only favored against the Cardinals but getting a ton of market support. Carolina opened -4.5 and have since hit as high as -6 at key offshore sportsbooks like CRIS and Pinnacle. The Cardinals do have one thing in their favor; 12 years of an incredibly high return on Wild Card teams with the stronger strength of schedule. According to Sagarin, Arizona's schedule ranked 10th while Carolina's was 22nd.




Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Arizona Cardinals




Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap the First Round of the NFL Playoffs

12.29.2014     02:26 PM     Printer Friendly
Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap the First Round of the NFL Playoffs

The theory is actually quite simple; since 2002, teams with a higher Strength of Schedule (using Sagarin’s Ratings) are a remarkable 36-12 straight up and 35-12-1 against the spread (74% winners) regardless of price and location. Even more amazing is that teams with a SOS differential of 10 or more went 23-3 SU, 22-3-1 ATS (88% winners). Taking it step further, teams with a better SOS that are underdogs went 14-8 SU, 17-5 ATS. Underdogs with a SOS rating of 10 or better went 9-3 ATS and 10-2 ATS. This is not a perfect science when it comes to grading plays. For example, last year, the Colts opened -2.5 but closed +2. The 49ers also closed -3.5 at a number of shops which would have resulted in an ATS loss. That said, with 12 years of results, this is one of the strongest publically known NFL trends available.

NFL Wildcard Playoff Strength of Schedule Betting Trend 2002-13
Year
Away (SOS)
Home (SOS)
Score
SOS SU
SOS ATS
2013
Kansas City (26)
Indianapolis (11) +2
IND 45, KC 44
Win
Win
2013
New Orleans (8) +3
Philadelphia (28)
NO 26, PHI 24
Win
Win
2013
San Diego (19) +6
Cincinnati (27)
SD 27, CIN 10
Win
Win
2013
San Francisco (7) -3
Green Bay (30)
SF 23, GB 20
Win
Push
 
 
 
 
 
 
2012
Cincinnati (31)
Houston (27) -4.5
HOU 19, CIN 13
Win
Win
2012
Minnesota (6) +8
Green Bay (8)
GB 24, MIN 10
Loss
Loss
2012
Indianapolis (32)
Baltimore (18) -6.5
BAL 24, IND 9
Win
Win
2012
Seattle (5) -3
Washington (15)
SEA 24, WAS 14
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2011
Cincinnati (23) +3
Houston (32)
HOU 31, CIN 10
Loss
Loss
2011
Detroit (4) +10.5
New Orleans (31)
NO 45, DET 28
Loss
Loss
2011
NY Giants (6) -3
Atlanta (21)
NYG 24, ATL 2
Win
Win
2011
Denver (8) +8
Pittsburgh (26)
DEN 29, PIT 23
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2010
New Orleans (25)
Seattle (28) +14.5
SEA 41, NO 36
Loss
Loss
2010
NY Jets (8) +1
Indianapolis (21)
NYJ 17, IND 16
Win
Win
2010
Baltimore (12) -3
Kansas City (32)
BAL 30, KC 7
Win
Win
2010
Green Bay (9) +1
Philadelphia (16)
GB 21, PHI 16
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2009
Philadelphia (13) +3.5
Dallas (14)
DAL 34, PHI 13
Loss
Loss
2009
Green Bay (32)
Arizona (28) +2.5
ARI 51, GB 45
Win
Win
2009
NY Jets (4) +2.5
Cincinnati (17)
NYJ 24, CIN 14
Win
Win
2009
Baltimore (10)
New England (6) -3.5
BAL 33, NE 14
Loss
Loss
 
 
 
 
 
 
2008
Baltimore (3) -3.5
Miami (26)
BAL 27, MIA 9
Win
Win
2008
Indianapolis (10) -1.5
San Diego (17)
SD 23, IND 17
Loss
Loss
2008
Philadelphia (5) -3
Minnesota (14)
PHI 26, MIN 14
Win
Win
2008
Atlanta (24)
Arizona (16) -1.5
ARI 30, ATL 24
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2007
NY Giants (2) +3
Tampa Bay (24)
NYG 24, TB 14
Win
Win
2007
Washington (1) +3
Seattle (35)
SEA 35, WAS 14
Loss
Loss
2007
Tennessee (18)
San Diego (6) -10.5
SD 17, TEN 6
Win
Win
2007
Jacksonville (13) -2.5
Pittsburgh (27)
JAX 31, PIT 29
Win
Loss
 
 
 
 
 
 
2006
NY Jets (8)
New England (4) -9.5
NE 37, NYJ 16
Win
Win
2006
Kansas City (17)
Indianapolis (5) -7
IND 23, KC 8
Win
Win
2006
NY Giants (9) +6.5
Philadelphia (21)
PHI 23, NYG 20
Loss
Win
2006
Dallas (23) +2.5
Seattle (30)
SEA 21, DAL 20
Loss
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2005
Carolina (24)
NY Giants (17) -3
CAR 23, NYG 0
Loss
Loss
2005
Washington (3) +1
Tampa Bay (32)
WAS 17, TB 10
Win
Win
2005
Pittsburgh (4) -3
Cincinnati (13)
PIT 31, CIN 17
Win
Win
2005
Jacksonville (25)
New England (8) -7.5
NE 28, JAX 3
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2004
Denver (14)
Indianapolis (11) -10
IND 49, DEN 24
Win
Win
2004
NY Jets (4) +7
San Diego (18)
NYJ 20, SD 17
Win
Win
2004
St. Louis (22) +3.5
Seattle (29)
STL 27, SEA 20
Win
Win
2004
Minnesota (21) +6.5
Green Bay (26)
MIN 31, GB 17
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2003
Dallas (18)
Carolina (13) -3
CAR 29, DAL 10
Win
Win
2003
Seattle (27)
Green Bay (23) -7.5
GB 33, SEA 27
Win
Loss
2003
Denver (19)
Indianapolis (4) -3
IND 41, DEN 10
Win
Win
2003
Tennessee (6) -1
Baltimore (28)
TEN 20, BAL 17
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2002
Cleveland (17) +8
Pittsburgh (20)
PIT 36, CLE 33
Loss
Win
2002
Indianapolis (28)
NY Jets (5) -6
NYJ 41, IND 0
Win
Win
2002
NY Giants (30)
San Francisco (11) -3
SF 39, NYG 38
Win
Loss
2002
Atlanta (6) +7
Green Bay (27)
ATL 27, GB 7
Win
Win
Results
 
 
 
36-12 SU
35-12-1 ATS


In 2002 the NFL expanded to its current format of 32 teams; eight divisions with four teams each. There wasn’t much upheaval as the league added the Houston Texans to the AFC and Seattle switched to the NFC. Two new Read more



Tags: NFL




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Top Super Bowl contenders all have flaws

12.29.2014     01:57 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We’re down to a dirty dozen in the NFL, as 20 of the 32 teams saw their seasons come to a close at the conclusion of another wild and wacky Week 17.  In my Wiseguy Reports over the past two weeks, I’ve been poking holes in the fringe contenders in both conferences.  This week, I’m going to put the four favorites under the microscope.  Guess what – all four are potentially vulnerable to an upset.

Let me start with the defending champs, the Seattle Seahawks.  When Pete Carroll built up his program at USC, the Trojans weren’t a one-and-done type squad for titles -- they were in the mix year after year under his tutelage.  They played fast, they played loose – never tense or uptight -- and they consistently played their very best football down the stretch.

Seattle did just that down the stretch last year.  And they’ve certainly done that this year; going 6-0 SU and ATS since their loss at Kansas City back in Week 11.  But before we anoint the Seahawks as the first repeat Super Bowl champs since the Patriots did it following the 2004 campaign, we’ve got to put this team under the Read more



Tags: NFL Denver Broncos New England Patriots Green Bay Packers Seattle Seahawks Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Regular Season Over/Under Wins Recap

12.29.2014     01:49 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Quick look back at the NFL's Season Over/Under Win results. The numbers were based on the Westgate's from earlier in the summer. The league's biggest "overachievers" were the Dallas Cowboys (+4 differential) and Arizona Cardinals (+3.5). The biggest "underachievers" were the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5) and Tennessee Titans (-5). Four of the five teams lined at double-digit wins went over; the lone exception being the San Francisco 49ers. Of the 12 teams to make the playoffs, only Carolina failed to go over their win total. Miami was the only team to push. And 11 of the AFC's 16 teams went over the total.

2014 NFL Regular Season Over/Under Wins Recap
Team
LVH O/U Wins
2014 Wins
Difference
Arizona Cardinals
7.5ov-120
11
+3.5
Atlanta Falcons
8ov-130
6
-2
Baltimore Ravens
8.5ov-120
10
+1.5
Buffalo Bills
6.5ov-130
9
+2.5
Carolina Panthers
8ov-130
7
-1
Chicago Bears
8ov-140
5
-3
Cincinnati Bengals
9ov-135
10
+1
Cleveland Browns
6.5ov-150
7
+0.5
Dallas Cowboys
8
12
+4
Denver Broncos
11ov-140
12
+1
Detroit Lions
8ov-150
11
+3
Green Bay Packers
10ov-145
12
+2
Houston Texans
7.5ov-145
9
+1.5
Indianapolis Colts
9.5un-150
11
+1.5
Jacksonville Jaguars
4.5ov-150
3
-1.5
Kansas City Chiefs
8ov-120
9
+1
Miami Dolphins
8un-130
8
0
Minnesota Vikings
6un-125
7
+1
New England Patriots
10.5ov-135
12
+1.5
New Orleans Saints
9.5ov-150
7
-2.5
New York Giants
7.5ov-135
6
-1.5
New York Jets
7ov-125
4
-3
Oakland Raiders
5un-150
3
-2
Philadelphia Eagles
9un-135
10
+1
Pittsburgh Steelers
8.5ov-120
11
+2.5
San Diego Chargers
8ov-120
9
+1
San Francisco 49ers
10.5ov-120
8
-2.5
Seattle Seahawks
11ov-120
12
+1
St. Louis Rams
7.5
6
-1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7ov-120
2
-5
Tennessee Titans
7ov-130
2
-5
Washington Redskins
7.5un-145
4
-3.5





Tags: NFL




NFL Handicapping: Cowboys claim they won't rest starters vs. Redskins

12.22.2014     01:59 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Dallas Cowboys have clinched the NFC East and have an outside shot at a first-round bye but need a lot of help from other teams. According to early week reports, the team doesn't plan to rest starters for their Week 17 finale at Washington. Note that it’s an early start contest so parts of their first round bye scenario will obviously be unknown.




Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys Washington Redskins




NFL Gambling Alert: Bears go back to the well with Cutler

12.22.2014     12:44 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A week removed from getting benched for Jimmy Clausen, Jay Cutler has regained his starting spot -- albeit in de facto fashion. Clausen suffered a concussion in Sunday's loss to Detroit. The Bears (+6.5/+7) close the year at Minnesota.


“Jay gives us the best chance this week. So that’s why he’ll be out there,” Trestman said, via ESPNChicago.com. “Jay said ‘I’ll be ready to go.’ He empathizes with what Jimmy had gone through last night. He’s ready to go. He’ll be in this afternoon to get started.”









Tags: NFL Chicago Bears Minnesota Vikings



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