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January

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NFL Gambling Preview: New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens

11.24.2013     08:16 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New York Jets at Baltimore
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Baltimore -3 O/U 40.5
CRIS Current: Baltimore -3.5 O/U 39.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Baltimore -6
Erin Rynning's Recommendation: Under

The New York Jets fly into Baltimore looking to extend their trend of alternating wins and losses.  While their defense looks up to task it won’t be easy for the offense.  Amazingly the Jets have gone OVER the total in 7 of their 10 games despite ranking 31st in points scored.  The offense led by quarterback Geno Smith has struggled throughout the campaign, while ranking 29th in passing offense.  Making matters much tougher for the offense will be Baltimore’s defense and the weather.  The Ravens defense is still capable, and tough to pass against with a talented secondary and ability to pressure the quarterback.  The weather forecast will make it difficult for both Read more


Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens New York Jets Erin Rynning




NFL Gambing Preview: Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins

11.22.2013     02:02 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Carolina at Miami
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Carolina -3.5 O/U 40
CRIS Current: Carolina -4 O/U 41
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Carolina -3
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Carolina

Have to admit that Miami’s home victory over San Diego last Sunday was a bit surprising considering all of its problems. The largest issue for the Dolphins was the depleted offensive line which took a further hit last week when starting center Mike Pouncey (kidney) was unable to play. With 60% of the starting offensive line out, Miami was able to gain 343 total yards including 104 on the ground at 5.5 per carry. They did allow four sacks and their defense was stung for 435 yards by the Chargers. The win places Miami right at the doorstep of the playoffs at 5-5 just behind the current sixth seed New York Jets who have the same 5-5 mark. Carolina meanwhile, has moved into the fifth spot in the NFC following its controversial Monday night Read more


Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Miami Dolphins Rob Veno




NFL Handicapping: Giants confident strong defense will continue

11.22.2013     07:04 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Don't tell the New York Giants they've benefited from playing a host of backup/bottom-tier quarterbacks during their four-game winning streak. The G-Men went toe-to-tie with the likes of Scott Tolzien, a less than 100% Terrelle Pryor, Matt Barkley (and a little Michael Vick), and Josh Freeman. This week they face Tony Romo who threw for 263 yards on 36-of-49 passing in Week 1's meeting.


“I’d just say the guys we played, their talents were in different areas,” Kiwanuka said. “Maybe we haven’t faced all-pro quarterbacks, but we’ve faced some great running backs.”

“You can look at it however you want,” Thomas said. “But the confidence is flowing. We’re feeling great about ourselves now."



 



Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys New York Giants




NFL Gambling Preview: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

11.21.2013     12:47 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Dallas at New York Giants
Sunday, 1:25 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
New York -3 O/U 45.5
CRIS Current: New York -2.5 O/U 44.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: New York -1.5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Over

Monte Kiffin’s defense has been a complete disaster for Dallas this year.  It’s not much of a surprise.  Here’s what I wrote about Kiffin and the Cowboys defense prior to the start of the season, when I bet Dallas Under 8.5 wins. 

Teams with dysfunctional organizations don’t win much at the NFL level – look no further than the Oakland Raiders or the Jacksonville Jaguars for the past decade to see that rather clearly.  And it’s long past time we started comparing Jerry Jones to Al Davis – guys who had success with their respective franchises earlier in their careers, but who suffered from enormous hubris and consistent losing thereafter. Read more


Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys New York Giants Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling: Pass interference continues to have big impact on outcomes

11.21.2013     11:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good article from the Wall Street Journal on the NFL and pass interference. Defensive PI calls are obviously on the rise due to more passing but the rate of offensive PI calls remains similar to that of past seasons.
 

"It's a big grey area," said McCaffrey. He said the reason a penalty is not called more often is that the move is nearly impossible to decipher. He said it's hard for referees to distinguish receiver-created "picks" from contact initiated by defenders, who are allowed to get physical at the line of scrimmage. He said two things are key for the offense to avoid a penalty: Don't throw a forearm or otherwise make upper-body contact, and after setting a pick, at least pretend to run a route.






Tags: NFL




NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 12

11.20.2013     08:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I was able to put together updated Drive Point averages early this week. The math is so easy when almost everyone’s played exactly 10 games! I also wanted to include strength of schedule data for each team as well, because that can pollute the numbers a smidge. I usually go to Sagarin for those (USA Today). And, his are usually in the neighborhood of Football Outsiders to. Figured I’d grab those too. Then, I can get any feng shui stuff out of my system now so I don’t have to write up a full report.

The numbers you see below are per-game Drive Point averages for every offense and defense. Drive Points are those scored and allowed on Drives of 60 yards or more. All other scoring is excluded (shorter drives, defensive points, special teams points). We’re looking to capture as best as possible each team’s ability to drive the field for points on offense, while preventing opponents from doing so.

In parenthesis, I’ve put the strength of schedule Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: CRIS vs. Cantor Gaming Summer Lines - Week 12

11.19.2013     12:11 PM     Printer Friendly
Back in early May, Cantor Gaming posted lines on every NFL regular season game. We took those lines and stacked them up against the current market numbers at CRIS. It's a good handicapping tool to identify some of the changes in opinion the market has had through 11 weeks of the regular season.

2013 NFL CRIS Lines vs. Cantor Gaming Summer Lines - Week 12
Away
Home
Cantor
CRIS Current
New Orleans
Atlanta
Atlanta -2.5
New Orleans -7.5
Tampa Bay
Detroit
Detroit -3.5
Detroit -9
Jacksonville
Houston
Houston -10
Houston -10
Minnesota
Green Bay
Green Bay -4.5
Green Bay -5
San Diego
Kansas City
Kansas City -1
Kansas City -5
Carolina
Miami
Miami -1.5
Carolina -4
Pittsburgh
Cleveland
Pittsburgh -3
Cleveland -2.5
Chicago
St. Louis
Chicago -1
St. Louis -1
NY Jets
Baltimore
Baltimore -6
Baltimore -3.5
Tennessee
Oakland
Oakland -1
Oakland -1
Indianapolis
Arizona
Arizona pk
Arizona -2.5
Dallas
NY Giants
NY Giants -2.5
NY Giants -2.5
Denver
New England
New England -1.5
Denver -2.5
San Francisco
Washington
San Francisco -1.5
San Francisco -5




Tags: NFL




NFL Handicapping Trends: Kansas City Chiefs try to bounce back after first loss

11.19.2013     11:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A couple of historical numbers regarding NFL teams off a loss after starting the season at least 8-0. This is obviously in play for the Kansas City Chiefs following Sunday's loss at Denver. KC is currently a 5-point home favorite against San Diego.

Since 1990, teams 8-0 or better off a loss are 22-13 SU but only 17-18 ATS. Totals in those games were 24-11 O/U.

Using the same parameters but as home favorites the results were 12-3 SU, 8-7 ATS, and 11-4 O/U.



Tags: NFL Kansas City Chiefs San Diego Chargers




Monday Night Football Betting Recap: Carolina slips past New England

11.19.2013     08:31 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It definitely had the feel of a playoff game…matching two teams who are clearly playoff caliber right now. A lot of those go right down to the wire. You watched. You know the tightrope wire this game was walking in the final minutes. Let’s see the numbers…

Carolina 24 (-3), New England 20

New England: 390 yards, 5.8 per-play, 2 turnovers, 50% third downs

Carolina: 300 yards, 5.6 per-play, 0 turnovers, 73% third downs

Other Numbers

Rushing Yards: New England 107, Carolina 103

Passing Stats: New England 29-40-1-283, Carolina 19-28-0-197

Drive Points: New England 14, Carolina 24

Stat Score: New England 22, Carolina 18

Sloppiness: New England 21, Carolina 9

Pace: 139 plays + penalties + punts + field goal attempts (extreme clock eating)

Another game where both teams moved the ball very effectively in a slow-motion “take what the defense gives Read more


Tags: NFL New England Patriots Carolina Panthers Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC Super Bowl Contenders

11.18.2013     12:31 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It’s late November.  Thanksgiving is next week.  And that means it’s time for me to take a break from my typical team notes column that I’ve been writing here in the Vegas Wiseguy Report since the start of the NFL season.

It’s time to focus on the big boys – teams with playoff aspirations.  Who can get hot down the stretch and make us some money winning games and covering pointspreads?  Which squads are legitimate Super Bowl contenders; which are pretenders.  Let’s take look through the NFC this week, gauging which squads have ATS value moving forward, and which squads have already reached their zenith, poised to tumble back to earth down the stretch.

I did not include notes on Carolina (they don’t play till Monday Night) and Dallas (on bye this week) due to space limitations.  That leaves Philadelphia, the New York Giants, Detroit, Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco and Arizona to consider; all of whom remain live for the postseason as Week 12 approaches.

Serious Super Bowl Contenders

Seattle Seahawks - I Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers



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