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NFL Gambling Preview: Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens

10.09.2013     12:25 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Green Bay at Baltimore
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Green Bay -3.5 O/U 47.5
CRIS Current: Green Bay -3 O/U 48.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Baltimore pk
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Under

We got two underrated defenses facing off against two offenses that are struggling in the red zone AND committed to running the football . Put those three factors together with the consistently high totals in the modern NFL era and the case for the Under is perfectly clear.

Let me start with the defenses. Green Bay got Morgan Burnett back in the lineup at safety last week after missing the first three games of the season and he definitely had an impact, saving a potential big play TD with a beautiful pass breakup. The Packers front seven really controlled the field against Detroit, and there’s no reason to think they won’t be able to do it again here even without Clay Matthews relentless pass rushing Read more

Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Trends: History points towards the UNDER in Washington-Dallas matchup

10.09.2013     12:11 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Good find by Marty Otto on "bad" defenses off a bye week facing "good" offenses. Games involving teams that allow 27 ppg or more off a week of rest vs. teams that score 24 ppg or more are 9-22 O/U dating back to 1994. Since 2011, the trend has produced five straight UNDERS. For this week we have the Washington Redskins (28.0 ppg allowed) off a bye facing the Dallas Cowboys (30.4 ppg).

Tags: NFL Washington Redskins Dallas Cowboys Otto Sports

NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 5

10.09.2013     07:41 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Breaking Down the Undefeated and Winless ATS Teams
The list of winless and undefeated ATS teams continues to shrink after Week 5 of the season. Denver and Seattle were the two remaining undefeated teams but both came up short from an ATS perspective. However, there are still four teams looking for their first pointspread win of the season as we head into Week 6. Those teams are Houston, Jacksonville, and the New York Giants at 0-5 ATS along with Pittsburgh at 0-4 ATS.

The Giants, Jaguars, and Steelers have all failed to win a game straight up while the Texans are 2-3. New York will attempt to snap their SU and ATS winless streak in Chicago playing on a short week against a Bears team that has dropped their last two games. It doesn’t help the Giants have three major flaws right now. They can’t take care of the football, they can’t block up front, and their secondary has been ripped apart by each opponent they’ve faced.
Jacksonville finds itself involved this week in the largest pointspread in NFL history as they opened as 28-point underdogs against the Denver Broncos. The next largest spread was when the Pittsburgh Read more

Tags: NFL Ian Cameron

NFL Handicapping Trends: Raiders and Saints with upcoming bye week

10.08.2013     11:18 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports blog entry.
From the start of the 2012 season to present day teams about to go into their bye, playing a team NOT about to go into a bye, are 9-19 SU, 7-21 ATS, 11-17 O/U.

If you look specifically at home favorites in this role they are 4-12 SU, 2-14 ATS, by far and away the worst segment. I contemplated one reasonable explanation being they don't have to travel, have the nice little vacation on their mind, see an opponent they think they should have no trouble beating and simply sleep walk.

Oakland Raiders and New Orleans Saints both face their byes and an opponent who is not this week.

Tags: NFL Otto Sports

Monday Night Football Betting Recap: Jets score upset win over Falcons

10.08.2013     07:14 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Goodness. That was a great game, with some fascinating storylines in play...

For the Jets…

*Geno Smith continues to show off his very strong arm. He’s best suited to thrive indoors on a fast track or in great weather against defenses that don’t apply a lot of pressure. Harmonic convergence for that tonight, even without his best receivers.

*Tonight’s upset moves them to 3-2 in the AFC East standings, tied with Miami for second place behind 4-1 New England.

*This is now a team that seems to have GREAT chemistry instead of horrible chemistry!

For the Falcons…

*This was their second straight home loss as favorites against an AFC team. A lot of NFC teams are underachieving against the AFC of late (both the 49ers and Seahawks lost to Indianapolis, and those were the top Super Bowl choices from the NFC).

*Their lack of a running game is putting a ton of pressure on Read more

Tags: NFL New York Jets Atlanta Falcons Stat Intelligence

NFL Handicapping: CRIS vs. Cantor Gaming Summer Lines - Week 6

10.08.2013     07:08 AM     Printer Friendly
Back in early May, Cantor Gaming posted lines on every NFL regular season game. We took those lines and stacked them up against the current market numbers at CRIS. It's a good handicapping tool to identify some of the changes in opinion the market has had through the first five weeks of the regular season.

2013 NFL CRIS Lines vs. Cantor Gaming Summer Lines - Week 6
CRIS Current
NY Giants
Chicago -2.5
Chicago -7.5
Kansas City
Kansas City -4.5
Kansas City -8.5
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay -1.5
Tampa Bay pk
Green Bay
Baltimore -1
Green Bay -3 (ev)
Detroit -1
Detroit -2.5 (-120)
Minnesota -2.5
Minnesota -2.5
St. Louis
Houston -4.5
Houston -7 (-120)
NY Jets
Pittsburgh -1.5
NY Jets -1
Cincinnati -2.5
Cincinnati -7
Seattle -11
Seattle -13.5
Denver -14
Denver -26.5
San Francisco
San Francisco -10
San Francisco -11
New Orleans
New England
New England -4
New England -3 (+105)
Dallas -1.5
Dallas -5.5
San Diego
San Diego -2.5
Indianapolis -1.5

Tags: NFL

NFL Gambling News: Underdogs have historically fared well when catching big points

10.08.2013     06:57 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Jacksonville at Denver -26.5 O/U 52.5

The biggest story of Week 6 has been the pointspread tacked on to the Jacksonville-Denver game. According to most reports, the current number of -26.5 is the highest in NFL history. We used a database that went back to 1989 and found these historical results on abnormally high pointspreads. Underdogs have been a solid play at 14-5 ATS with games line +17.5 or higher and 4-0 ATS with +21.5 or higher.

Favorites of -17.5 or more
18-1 SU, 5-14 ATS, 10-9 O/U
Most Recent: 2013 - Seattle (-19) 45 vs. Jacksonville 17

Favorites of -21.5 or more
4-0 SU, 0-4 ATS, 1-3 O/U
Most Recent: 2007 - New England 28 vs. Miami (+22) 7

Tags: NFL Jacksonville Jaguars Denver Broncos

Monday Night Football Betting Consensus: Falcons laying double-digits the popular play

10.07.2013     02:15 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here are the top consensus bets for tonight's Monday Night Football game between the New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

Atlanta -10 (77.0%) vs. New York

New York at Atlanta OVER 45 (58.0%)

Atlanta -485 (69.7%) vs. New York

Tags: NFL New York Jets Atlanta Falcons

NFL Gambling Alert: Bills to start Thad Lewis vs. Cincinnati

10.07.2013     08:27 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Cincinnati at Buffalo

With EJ Manuel out the Buffalo Bills will turn to former practice squad quarterback Thad Lewis. The team reportedly worked out free agents Dennis Dixon and Pat White but chose Lewis instead. Jeff Tuel's performance against the Browns (8-of-20, 80 yards, a pick six) was a pretty good indication he's not ready for primetime. That said, Lewis has played in only one NFL game in his career. Most Las Vegas sportsbooks are currently showing Cincinnati as a 7.5-point road favorite.

Tags: NFL Buffalo Bills Cincinnati Bengals

NFL Week 5 Betting Recap

10.07.2013     07:27 AM     Printer Friendly

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence


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