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NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 14

12.05.2013     08:36 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Here are per-game Drive Point averages on offense and defense for all 32 teams…arranged in schedule rotation order. If you’re new to the website, Drive Points are only those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. Special teams and defensive scoring isn’t counted, nor are “cheap” points scored off field position. The goal is to get a clean a read as possible on “pure” offense and defense in terms of driving the field for points, and preventing the opposition from doing so.

Strength of schedule rankings from Sagarin at USA Today and Football Outsiders are in the first parenthesis (in that order) to provide some extra context for you, followed by this season’s turnover differential in the second parenthesis…


Houston: 10.8 on offense, 13.5 on defense (6-15) (-12 turnovers)

Jacksonville: 6.2 on offense, 16.7 on defense (2-10) (-4 turnovers)

(Houston is 10.1 and 13.2 in the Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

NFL Gambling Preview: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

12.04.2013     12:52 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Carolina at New Orleans
Sunday, 5:30 pm PT - NBC
CRIS Opener:
New Orleans -3.5 O/U 44.5
CRIS Current: New Orleans -3 (-120) O/U 45.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: New Orleans -3.5
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Use Carolina in 6-pt teaser

This should be a terrific Sunday Night Football showcase as the Panthers and Saints battle with 1st place in the NFC South on the line.

New Orleans is clearly not a team I like betting against at home at a short price particularly off a brutal performance like they suffered in Seattle. The Saints are 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 ATS at the Superdome however only one of those wins (San Francisco) came against a team of the Panthers’ caliber. The Saints only managed to beat the 49ers 23-20 on a last second FG as they didn’t sniff a lead by more than a touchdown throughout that entire game.

Carolina is 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games – the single hottest team in Read more

Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers New Orleans Saints Ian Cameron

NFL Handicapping: CRIS vs. Cantor Gaming Summer Lines - Week 14

12.03.2013     12:18 PM     Printer Friendly
Back in early May, Cantor Gaming posted lines on every NFL regular season game. We took those lines and stacked them up against the current market numbers at CRIS. It's a good handicapping tool to identify some of the changes in opinion the market has had over the course of the regular season.

2013 NFL CRIS Lines vs. Cantor Gaming Summer Lines - Week 14
CRIS Current
Houston -4.5
Houston -3
Kansas City
Washington -4.5
Kansas City -3
New England
New England -8.5
NY Jets
NY Jets -6
NY Jets -2.5
Cincinnati -4.5
Cincinnati -5.5
New Orleans
New Orleans -3.5
New Orleans -3.5
Philadelphia -1
Philadelphia -2.5
Pittsburgh -3.5
Pittsburgh -3
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay -3
Tampa Bay -2.5
Denver -10
Denver -11.5
St. Louis
Arizona pk
Arizona -6
NY Giants
San Diego
San Diego pk
San Diego -3
San Francisco
San Francisco -2.5
Green Bay
Green Bay -3
Chicago -3

Tags: NFL

Monday Night Football Betting Recap: Seahawks trounce Saints

12.03.2013     08:10 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

These Seahawks are going to be tough to beat in January. Tonight’s dominating win over the Saints virtually locked up the #1 seed and home field advantage through the NFC brackets. That REALLY matters in Seattle.

And, I think it needs to start looming larger over the whole postseason discussion that Seattle is perfectly built for cold weather football. For the first time ever, the next Super Bowl will be played at a cold weather site at the Meadowlands. Tonight’s game was played in the 30’s with occasional drizzle. Quarterback Russell Wilson was sharp when throwing downfield. He was 22-30-0-302 against a decent defense in less-than-ideal throwing conditions!

Great defense…balanced potent offensive attack…capable of responding to any conditions or opponent. And, assuming they finish off grabbing the top spot…they’ll be well-rested and poised to peak at just the right time.

First things first…

Seattle 34 (-6.5), Read more

Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks New Orleans Saints Stat Intelligence

Monday Night Football Betting Consensus: Public prefers underdog Saints and OVER

12.02.2013     02:18 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
New Orleans +6.5 at Seattle O/U 48

Here are the top consensus bets for tonight's Monday Night Football game between the New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

Despite receiving over 54% of the bets – a relatively rare occurrence for a MNF road underdog – the market has moved heavily towards the home favorite over the course of the last few hours. Earlier this morning, the Seahawks were as cheap as -4.5 (ev) but have since been bet up to -6.5.

New Orleans +6.5 (54.2%) at Seattle

New Orleans-Seattle OVER 48 (76.8%)

New Orleans +220 (77.0%) at Seattle

Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks New Orleans Saints

NFL Gambling: San Francisco offensive line hit with injuries

12.02.2013     12:57 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
After starting 26 consecutive games, San Francisco's offensive line unit has run across a couple of key injuries. Left tackle Joe Staley hurt his knee against St. Louis is reportedly going to be out for a "couple of games." Left guard Mike Iupati also has a knee injury and missed the last two games. He's generously listed as questionable for Sunday's game vs. Seattle. Without the two all-pro linemen, the 49ers ran for 83 yards (2.8 ypc) and allowed four sacks against the Rams.

Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks

Sports Betting Podcast 12-2-2013 with Handicapper Teddy Covers

12.02.2013     10:03 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy gave his thoughts and opinions on the line moves for NFL Week 13.

Today's segments
Teddy Covers - NFL Opening Line Report Week 13

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Betting on Bad NFL Teams Down the Stretch

12.02.2013     08:02 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
I’ve spent the last two weeks breaking down playoff contenders in both the AFC and NFC. But the playoffs are still a month away. There are still four more regular season games to be played for every team in the NFL; a full quarter of the season. That’s why I’m taking a hard look in the opposite direction this week; breaking down the bottom feeders.

Bottom feeders in December are a mixed breed. Some squads tank; done with their season. Other bottom feeders play their best ball down the stretch, building momentum for next year.

Look at last year for some prime examples. The Lions went 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS in five December games a season ago; the lone pointspread cover coming by a single point in their meaningless season finale defeat. Philly went 1-4 SU at the tail end of the Andy Reid era, and got blown out in each of their final three games, losing by a combined nine touchdowns in those contests. Arizona, Buffalo, the New York Jets, Cleveland, Jacksonville and Kansas City – all teams that were considered ‘bottom feeders’ at this time last year – each finished with a losing SU and ATS mark in their five December Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Week 13 Betting Recap

12.02.2013     06:10 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Excellent betting recap of NFL Week 13 for our friend Stat Intelligence. Check out the links below...

Early Sunday Recap

Late Sunday Recap

Giants slip past Redskins

Week 13 Pace Factor

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

NFL Gambling: LVH SuperContest consensus plays regress after perfect Week 12

12.02.2013     06:05 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
A week removed from sweeping the board (5-0 ATS), the LVH SuperContest's consensus plays suffered their 11th losing week.

Week 13 Results
1. Buffalo -3 - LOSS
2. Tempa Bay +8 - LOSS
3. Denver -4.5 - WIN
4. Seattle -4.5 - PENDING
5. NY Jets -2 - LOSS

WEEK 1: 0-4-1
WEEK 2: 2-3
WEEK 3: 0-5
Week 4: 2-3
Week 5: 2-3
Week 6: 1-4
Week 7: 1-4
Week 8: 2-3
Week 9: 1-4
Week 10: 4-1
Week 11: 0-4-1
Week 12: 5-0
Week 13: 1-3 (Seahawks pending)
Total: 21-41-3 ATS

Tags: NFL


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