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NFL Handicapping: Odds to win Super Bowl XLVIII

01.16.2014     10:42 AM     Printer Friendly
Quick comparison of various odds to win Super Bowl XLVIII. We used Football Outsiders' percentage, the moneyline equivalent, and then offshore sportsbooks Pinnacle, Greek, and 5Dimes.

Super Bowl XLVIII Futures Odds
Team
Football Outsiders %
M/L Equivalent
Pinnacle
Greek
5Dimes
Seattle
34.80%
+187
+182
+185
+180
Denver
24.70%
+304
+190
+185
+202
New England
22.40%
+346
+548
+385
+570
San Francisco
18.10%
+452
+348
+250
+353





Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLVIII




NFL Gambling: San Francisco-Seattle total continues to get bet UNDER

01.14.2014     02:00 PM     Printer Friendly
San Francisco at Seattle -3.5 O/U 38.5

The total for Sunday's NFC Championship between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks continues to plummet. After opening 41.5 at LVH and 41 at CRIS, the prevailing market number sits 39 with CRIS and Heritage even lower at 38.5. Low totals and low scores haven been the norm for the recent series history. Line history courtesy of CRIS.

2013
Points: 36
Total: 41
Result: Under

2013
Points: 32
Total: 43.5
Result: Under

2012
Points: 55
Total: 45
Result: Over

2012
Points: 19
Total: 37.5
Result: Under

2011
Points: 36
Total: 37.5
Result: Under

2011
Points: 50
Total: 38
Result: Over

copy_seattle.JPG




Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks




NFL Handicapping: Look-ahead pointspreads for Super Bowl XLVIII

01.14.2014     11:33 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are the look-ahead lines for the four potential Super Bowl XLVIII matchups courtesy of William Hill sportsbooks.

San Francisco vs. Denver pk O/U 47.5
San Francisco -2 vs. New England O/U 47
Seattle vs. Denver -1 O/U 47.5
Seattle -1.5 vs. New England O/U 47




Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks Denver Broncos New England Patriots Super Bowl XLVIII




NFL Gambling: Conference Championship early line moves and historical results

01.13.2014     08:06 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A quick look at the early line moves for this weekend's NFL Conference Championships. Denver opened -7 offshore and -6.5 at LVH but has since been bet down to -4.5/-5. Seen a small move towards the over. The two teams met in Week 12 with the Patriots (pk) winning 34-31 in overtime in Foxboro. The Broncos blew a 24-0 lead. Seattle opened -3.5 both offshore and in Las Vegas. A few shows moved off of the -3.5 to -3 with juice. The total has been bet down heavily from 41.5/41 to 39.5/40. The two squads split the regular season meetings: San Francisco (-2.5) won 19-17 but failed to cover at home in Week 14; Seattle (-3) won and covered 29-3 in Week 2.

In terms of historical results (see below), sides are split 7-7 ATS (favorite/underdog) while totals have trended over at 9-5 O/U. Road teams have covered four straight.

New England at Denver
CRIS Opener: Denver -7 O/U 54.5
CRIS Current: Denver -5 O/U 55
LVH Opener: Denver -6.5 O/U 55
LVH Current: Denver -5 O/U 55

San Francisco at Seattle
CRIS Opener: Seattle -3 O/U 41
CRIS Current: Seattle -3 (-130) O/U 39.5
LVH Opener: Seattle -3.5 O/U Read more



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Denver Broncos San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks




NFL Divisional Round Betting Recap

01.13.2014     07:34 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Excellent betting recap of the NFL Divisional Round for our friend Stat Intelligence. Check out the links below...

Seattle 23, New Orleans (+9) 15

New England (-7) 32, Indianapolis 22

San Francisco (-1) 23, Carolina 10

Denver 24, San Diego (+7.5) 17




Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks Indianapolis Colts New England Patriots Carolina Panthers New Orleans Saints Denver Broncos San Diego Chargers




William Hill offers unique Super Bowl XLVIII prop bet

01.10.2014     01:57 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Las Vegas' William Hill sportsbooks are offering a unique opportunity for football bettors; an "exacta" pro bet on Super Bowl XLVIII's outcome. For example, taking Seattle to beat Denver would play out +325. There are 32 different combinations. For full odds, click here.




Tags: Las Vegas NFL Super Bowl XLVIII




NFL Betting News: Oddsmaker says 49ers will take more money

01.10.2014     07:25 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
San Francisco -1 at Carolina O/U 41

LVH oddsmaker Jay Kornegay says he expects San Francisco money at some point with a chance for the line to go to -3. We saw similar move late last week as the 49ers opened -2.5 and closed as high as -3.5 at Green Bay.


“I thought this thing would have a chance to go to 3 like we saw on the Packers game, and I still think we might see that,” Kornegay told The Linemakers on Sporting News. “Those who took Carolina plus 1 or 1.5 might have jumped the gun a little bit because they’ll probably get a better number closer to kickoff.”







Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers




NFL Gambling: Betting markets spent nearly entire season fading the Indianapolis Colts

01.10.2014     07:07 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
If you follow the NFL betting markets, you're well aware of its distaste for the Indianapolis Colts. Bettors considered last year's 11-5 SU/ATS mark to be fraudulent and were hell-bent on cashing in on the correction. It looked like a lucrative move as the Colts failed to cover in Weeks 1 and 2. It didn’t last however as Indy outpaced the market once again with a current run of 11-4 ATS. Ironically, after Weeks 1 and 2, in which the Colts took money based on CRIS's opening and closing numbers, they went 14 straight weeks without doing so. In four different weeks, the opening and closing numbers were the same. Which leaves 10 games (seven straight) in which the market faded this squad. This week, we've yet to see much of an anti-Colts push as CRIS opened +7-110 and currently shows a slight lean juice-wise towards New England. However, based on the market's track record with Indy, it seems likely at some point that 7.5 will be the prevailing number.



Based on CRIS’s opening and closing lines


vs. Kansas City
Colts Open -2.5
Colts Close +2

vs. Jacksonville
Colts Open Read more



Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts New England Patriots




NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Divisional Round

01.09.2014     01:01 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Before getting to the drive point averages and estimated market Power Ratings, I wanted to point something that I haven’t seen mentioned anywhere yet in playoff coverage. Maybe it’s been mentioned…it’s not like I see everything out there. But, I don’t get the sense that much is being made of this reality yet in the NFC brackets.

*The four remaining NFC teams saw a lot of each other this year

*They played nothing but grinders against each other

It wasn't much of a secret during the year that Seattle, San Francisco, Carolina, and New Orleans were the top four teams in the NFC. There was debate about how the last three rated amongst each other. Some computer places fell too much in love with Philadelphia’s penchant for running up the stats against a soft schedule. And, Arizona may have crashed the party in some circles. But, the “big four” were pretty clear, and kept running into each other because the NFC South played the Read more



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Betting News: Carolina's Rivera says underdog status means no pressure

01.09.2014     12:45 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
San Francisco -1 at Carolina O/U 42

Carolina head coach Ron Rivera not only pulled out the underdog card but tried to downplay his team's 10-9 win at San Francisco back in Week 10 by saying the Panthers "caught them at a good time." Odds choice of words considering the 49ers were at home off of a bye week. We've seen Sunday's line bounce back and forth. San Fran opened -1 and was bet up to -2. Yesterday, most offshore sportsbooks had the game a pick 'em. And today we've seen some 49ers money with the line back up to -1 (-1.5 at CRIS).


“It’s kind of funny,” Panthers coach Ron Rivera said. “Being the underdog takes the pressure off us and pouts the pressure on them. Now the expectations are for them. We’re at home, we’re going to show up and do the best we can. It’s a big week, we know it is

Read more



Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers San Francisco 49ers



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