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NFL Betting News: Eagles' offensive line short on healthy bodies

09.09.2014     02:47 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Philadelphia at Indianapolis -3 O/U 53

Injury concerns for Philadephia's offensive line following all-Pro left guard Evan Mathis' MCL tear. He's out indefinately along with right tackle Allen Barbre (ankle). Barbre was filling in for Lane Johnson who is currently serving a four-game suspension. All told, the Eagles have six healthy linemen.

Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles Indianapolis Colts

NFL Monday Night Football Betting Consensus: Public digs both games over the total

09.08.2014     02:22 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here are the top consensus bets (sides, total, and moneyline) for tonight's two Monday Night Football games courtesy of Bookmaker. The biggest move was what appeared to be a set-up: Detroit slow played throughout the week up to as high as -6.5 before a flood of New York money dropped the line to -4.5. Don't tell that to the betting public though with 64.9% of bets placed on the Lions. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

64.9% - Detroit -4.5
59.4% - San Diego +2.5

76.2% - OVER 45 NY Giants-Detroit
71.2% - OVER 46 San Diego-Arizona


81.0% - San Diego +120
60.8% - NY Giants +190

Tags: NFL New York Giants Detroit Lions San Diego Chargers Arizona Cardinals

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Under- and over-reacting to early season football results

09.08.2014     07:50 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
I probably heard the same expression 20 times last week: ‘Don’t overreact to Week 1 results.’   It’s one of those handicapping mantras that we hear every year right around this time – the very beginning of football season. 

In basketball or baseball there’s no week off between the first two games and the early season betting markets don’t react intensely off a single poor performance.  But for football – both NFL and college – the prevailing conventional wisdom is that Week 1 results are a thing to take with a grain of salt.

The concept certainly makes sense.  Coaches – especially college football coaches – will tell you that they expect their biggest improvement between Week 1 and Week 2.  Without the benefit of preseason games or even scrimmages against opposing squads, teams often ‘work out the kinks’ and ‘get up to game speed’ in their initial contest.  The team you expected to see this year (at least for bettors who do some homework and have opinions coming into the campaign) might not be the team you saw in Week 1, but there’s Read more

Tags: NFL College Football Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Update: Losing week for SuperContest Week 1 consensus picks

09.08.2014     07:38 AM     Printer Friendly

Same results, different season. Regardless of what happens with tonight's Lions-Giants game, SuperContest conesus plays (top five) took a net loss. The two most popular picks, Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh, both failed to cover. So did New Orleans as the Saints fell in OT to Atlanta, 37-34. The lone underdog of the top five, Tennessee (+3.5) crushed Kansas City. The Lions (-5.5) are still pending. Last year's top five consensus picks were well below .500.

NFL Gambling: Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh top picks for Week 1 SuperContest

09.07.2014     08:15 AM     View Original Blog

Below are the top consensus plays for Week 1 of the Hilton/LVH/Westgate SuperContest. Read more

Tags: NFL

NFL Gambling: Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh top picks for Week 1 SuperContest

09.07.2014     08:15 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 1 of the Hilton/LVH/Westgate SuperContest.

1. Tampa Bay -2 vs. Carolina
2. Pittsburgh -6.5 vs. Cleveland
3. Tennessee +3.5 at Kansas City
4. Detroit -5.5 vs. NY Giants
5. New Orleans -3 at Atlanta

Least picked side: Oakland +5.5 (7%) at NY Jets

Tags: NFL

NFL Handicapping: League gets the Elo Ratings treatment

09.05.2014     11:04 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Stat nerds will love this. FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver has created Elo Ratings for the NFL. Here's a link to Silver discussing the science behind it and another link to the ratings. His "spread" on last night's Packers-Seattle game was -10. One of the biggest discrepancies for Sunday's games is Detroit -1.5 vs. New York. The market currently has the Lions priced as a 6-point home favorite.

Do you also account for margin of victory?

Affirmative. I took some inspiration from the soccer ratings, which account for goal differential in addition to the game result. But this is one of the more complicated parts.

For the NFL, I start by adding one point to team’s margin of victory and then take its natural logarithm. Then I multiply that result by the K value. That means I’m more moved by big wins than narrow ones, although there are diminishing returns. I’m not so impressed by the fifth touchdown when a team is ahead 28-0.

Read more

Tags: NFL

Oddsmaker says Chicago Bears are an OVER team

09.05.2014     10:55 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Las Vegas oddsmakers Jay Kornegay, Jimmy Vaccaro, and Chris Andrews weigh in on the Chicago Bears. Kornegay said the Bears will be in a lot of shootouts this season.

Kornegay: When you’re talking about moving numbers below 10, that takes quite a bit of money. A half game is very valuable. To win the Super Bowl, the most money is on the Seahawks. But the most tickets we’ve sold to win it are on the Bears, Packers and Vikings. Midwesterners bet on their teams. I’ve always told people that once the Cubs win the World Series, I’ll probably be out of a job.

Tags: NFL Chicago Bears

NFL Gambling Update: Carolina's Newton upgraded to probable

09.05.2014     07:20 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Carolina at Tampa Bay -2.5 O/U 39

According to reports, Carolina's Cam Newton (rib) is "on pace" to start Week 1's opener at Tampa Bay. They Panthers won't make it official, however, until Sunday. Carolina opened as a 2-point favorite but since Newton's injury because public, we've seen a steady flow of Tampa Bay money. Offshore sportsbooks 5Dimes and Jazz currently have the Bucs -3 (ev).

"How I'm feeling right now, I'm on pace to be ready to go on Sunday.''

Asked what could disrupt that, Newton jokingly said, "Maybe from walking home, somebody wants to [mug] me or something like that. Getting hit by a car. Running away from a tiger. There's a lot of things that could disrupt that pace.''

"It's not just about Game 1, also,'' Rivera said. "Let's be realistic. This is not a sprint,

Read more

Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Consensus: Public supports Seahawks and OVER

09.04.2014     02:47 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Below are the consensus bets for tonight’s NFL regular season opener between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

55.0% - Seattle -5.5

68.6% - OVER 46.5

59.8% - Green Bay +210



Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers Seattle Seahawks

Sportsmemo Erin Rynning featured in ESPN Insider NFL preview

09.04.2014     01:51 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynnin contributed a few seasonal betting recommendations for ESPN Insider. Here's a link to the article (paywall).

Tags: NFL Erin Rynning


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