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NFL Handicapping: St. Louis Rams embrace youth movement

08.06.2013     08:08 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The St. Louis Rams were the youngest team in the NFL last season and expect to hold that distinction once again in 2013.


"Somebody told me we have the potential to be the youngest team in NFL history," coach Jeff Fisher said, himself seemingly not yet totally getting his head around the concept. "This is a young, young football team … So there's a lot of things to be excited about, but we're also focused on our depth. That's the issue; when you change so much and go young, your depth is not there."

"It's easy to see this is the fastest group of skill players we've had since I've been here," said Bradford, eager to see this offense expand as he enters his fourth season.





Tags: NFL St. Louis Rams




NFL Betting News: Oakland Raiders plagued by rash of injuries

08.05.2013     12:22 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A slew of injuries for the Oakland Raiders who open Week 1 of the preseason this Friday at home against the Dallas Cowboys.


"Obviously (injuries) are a part of camp, part of the things you have to deal with," Allen said. "But it is frustrating to not have guys that you're counting on to be out there on Sundays be able to go through practice. This is part of where we develop the foundation of the team that we're going to be."

"It's hard to get multiple groups of a defensive front when you've only got seven guys that are able to go," Allen said. "We took the pads off and we slowed the tempo down at the end in the hopes that we can keep some of these guys that are having to take extra reps as fresh as we can."





Tags: NFL Oakland Raders Dallas Cowboys




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Strategies on Betting and Beating NFL Preseason

08.05.2013     07:49 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I write a How to Beat the NFL Preseason article just about every year.  But this is no cut-and-paste from previous editions, because my strategies for betting (and beating) preseason football have been altered over the years, in some ways quite dramatically. 

I updated this piece from start to finish last year and have updated it again for 2013, focusing on how the betting markets have changed here in the 21st century and the ways savvy bettors can take advantage of those changes.

The betting markets are not static entities – they’re changing and shifting, year by year.  Betting strategies that gain attention because they work become the status quo, and the bookmakers adjust appropriately.  

Part of the change is the pointspread itself.  What was once a +7 becomes a +5; instead of laying -2.5, the books adjust and force you to lay -4.5.  As a natural consequence, the overall winning percentage of relatively popular and successful strategies drops as time progressed.

At the same time, the game itself changes from season to season, decade to decade.  Coach’s gameplans change over time, as Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Preseason Betting Recap: Underdog Dallas Cowboys win outright over Miami Dolphins

08.05.2013     07:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Hall of Fame games are never a thing of beauty. But, it’s good to have football back, even if the second half quarterbacks were from Monmouth, Illinois and Delaware (though Matt Moore of Miami came back on the field to lead a last second TD drive). Here are the final numbers...

Dallas 24 (+3), Miami 20

Total Yardage: Miami 421, Dallas 267

Yards-per-Play: Miami 5.5, Dallas 4.7

Rushing Yards: Miami 111, Dallas 171

Passing Stats: Miami 29-47-1-310, Dallas 11-21-0-96

Turnovers: Miami 2, Dallas 0

Drive Points: Miami 10, Dallas 0

Stat Score: Miami 24, Dallas 20

If you’re new to the site, “drive points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. We keep track of those to get as clear a read as possible for which offenses can move the ball and score, and which defenses can prevent it. Probably not very meaningful in exhibition games…but I wanted to throw it in there as Read more


Tags: NFL Miami Dolphins Dallas Cowboys Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Indianapolis Colts focused on better run game

08.05.2013     07:36 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Article on Indianapolis Colts first-year offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton. Hamilton spent the last two seasons at Stanford's OC. According to Hamilton and head coach Chuck Pagano, there will be extra emphasis placed on the power running game. The Colts ranked 22nd last season at 104.4 yards per game.


"I've said from Day 1 that in order to win in the National Football League, you have to run the football and you have to stop the run," Pagano said. "(Last year) we still drifted a guy back there. He just wasn't listed on the depth chart as a fullback. Dwayne (Allen) was listed as a tight end but somebody was still moving into the backfield at times. Now we just got a guy that looks like a fullback, smells like a fullback, he's listed as a fullback. We're going to do everything we can to improve our ability to run the football. It's going to take pressure off our quarterback. It's going to take time off the clock."

"I think we have to have a true sense of balance in our offense. We've got to be Read more



Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts




NFL Hall of Fame Gambling Preview: Miami Dolphins vs. Dallas Cowboys

08.04.2013     08:10 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Miami -3 vs. Dallas O/U 32.5

The NFL Preseason gets underway tonight (5 pm PT, NBC) with the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio. The Miami Dolphins opened as a 2-point favorite over the Dallas Cowboys with a total of 34.5. Bettors have come in heavy only the Miami with the line now -3ev/-2.5 (-115) and the total 32.5.

Hall of Fame Game Betting Results
2012: New Orleans (-3) 17 vs. Arizona 10 - UNDER 37
2011: No HOF game
2010: Dallas (+3) 16 vs. Cincinnati 7 - UNDER 33
2009: Tennessee (-3) vs. Buffalo 18 - OVER 32
2008: Washington (-4) vs. Indiana 16 - OVER 31.5
2007: Pittsburgh (-3) vs. New Orleans 7 - UNDER 33.5
2006: Okaland (+2.5) vs. Philadelphia 10 - UNDER 33.5

Game Notes
Several Dallas starters including Tony Romo are not expected to play tonight.

As of yesterday, the Dolphins have yet to Read more


Tags: NFL Miami Dolphins Dallas Cowboys




NFL Handicapping: Preseason Quarterback Depth Charts

08.01.2013     08:05 AM     Printer Friendly
Preseason NFL quarterback depth charts. Are these 100% accurate? Probably not. But now you can say you're prepared for a McLeod Bethel-Thompson sighting.

2013 NFL Preseason Quarterback Depth Charts
Team
No. 1
No. 2
No. 3
No. 4
Arizona
Carson Palmer
Drew Stanton
Ryan Lindley
Caleb TerBush
Atlanta
Matt Ryan
Dominique Davis
Sean Renfree
Seth Doege
Baltimore
Joe Flacco
Tyrod Taylor
Caleb Hanie
 
Buffalo
EJ Manuel
Kevin Kolb
Jeff Tuel
 
Carolina
Cam Newton
Derek Anderson
Jimmy Clausen
Colby Cameron
Chicago
Jay Cutler
Josh McCown
Matt Blanchard
 
Cincinnati
Andy Dalton
Josh Johnson
John Skelton
Zac Robinson
Cleveland
Brandon Weeden
Jason Campbell
Brian Hoyer
 
Dallas
Tony Romo
Kyle Orton
Nick Stephens
Alex Tanney
Denver
Peyton Manning
Brock Osweiller
Zac Dysert
Ryan Katz
Detroit
Matthew Stafford
Shaun Hill
Kellen Moore
Thad Lewis
Green Bay
Aaron Rodgers
Graham Harrell
BJ Coleman
 
Houston
Matt Schaub
TJ Yates
Case Keenum
Stephen McGee
Indianapolis
Andrew Luck
Matt Hasselbeck
Chandler Harnish
 
Jacksonville
Blaine Gabbert
Chad Henne
Mike Kafka
Matt Scott
Kansas City
Alex Smith
Chase Daniel
Ricky Stanzi
Tyler Bray
Miami
Ryan Tannehill
Matt Moore
Pat Devlin
 
Minnesota
Christian Ponder
Matt Cassel
McLeod Bethel-Thompson
 
New England
Tom Brady
Ryan Mallett
Tim Tebow
 
New Orleans
Drew Brees
Luke McCown
Seneca Wallace
Ryan Griffin
NY Giants
Eli Manning
David Carr
Ryan Nassib
Ryan Perrilloux
NY Jets
Mark Sanchez
Geno Smith
Greg McElroy
Matt Simms
Oakland
Matt Flynn
Terrelle Pryor
Tyler Wilson
 
Philadelphia
Michael Vick
Nick Foles
Matt Barkley
Dennis Dixon
Pittsburgh
Ben Roethlisberger
Bruce Gradkowski
Landry Jones
 
San Diego
Philip Rivers
Charlie Whitehurst
Brad Sorensen
Jarrett Lee
San Francisco
Colin Kaepernick
Colt McCoy
Scott Tolzien
BJ Daniels
Seattle
Russell Wilson
Brady Quinn
Tavaris Jackson
 
St. Louis
Sam Bradford
Austin Davis
Kellen Clemens
 
Tampa Bay
Josh Freeman
Dan Orlovsky
Mike Glennon
Adam Weber
Tennessee
Jake Locker
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Rusty Smith
 
Washington
Robert Griffin
Kirk Cousins
Rex Grossman
Pat White




Tags: NFL




NFL Preseason Betting Results 2009-12

07.31.2013     02:17 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below is a chart of the NFL preseason betting results from 2009-12. For the most part, past preseason results offer little to nothing in terms of projection. However it is clear some coaches take the preseason more serious than others. Under Tony Dungy and Jim Caldwell (and Peyton Manning), the Indianapolis Colts were notorious for not caring about the preseason. From 2005-11, the Colts went 5-25 SU and 9-20-1 ATS. Kansas City under Todd Haley was another team that typically tanked the preseason. Detroit meanwhile went 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS during Jim Schwartz's first four seasons. Pittsburgh has gone 19-6 SU (never worse than 3-1) under Mike Tomlin. That doesn't mean however that the Lions and Steelers are once again "bet on" but those records indicate that the men in charge don't mind a little extra effort and the feeling of winning even though the games don’t count. But for bettors, the most intriguing aspect of handicapping the preseason is first-year head coaches. Some feel that new coaches will have a desire to play well and get off to a good start. But don't hang your hat on that theory. Of last year's five teams with new head coaches not one posted a winning SU record (7-13 combined, 10-10 ATS). Heading into the 2013-14 campaign, Arizona, Buffalo, Chicago, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Philadelphia, and San Diego all have first-year head coaches.

NFL Preseason Team-by-Team Betting Results 2009-12
Team
2009 SU
2009 ATS
2010 SU
2010 ATS
2011 SU
2011 ATS
2012 SU
2012 ATS
Overall SU
Overall ATS
Arizona
0-4
0-4
3-1
3-1
2-2
2-1-1
1-4
0-5
6-11
5-11-1
Atlanta
2-2
2-1-1
2-2
2-2
0-4
1-3
1-3
1-3
5-11
6-9-1
Baltimore
4-0
3-1
3-1
3-1
3-1
2-2
2-2
2-2
12-4
10-6
Buffalo
1-4
1-3-1
2-2
2-2
1-3
1-3
0-4
1-3
4-13
5-11-1
Carolina
0-4
0-4
1-3
1-3
1-3
1-3
2-2
3-1
4-12
5-11
Chicago
3-1
3-1
0-4
0-4
2-2
3-1
3-1
3-1
8-8
9-7
Cincinnati
2-2
2-2
3-2
2-3
1-3
1-3
2-2
2-2
8-9
7-10
Cleveland
2-2
2-2
2-2
2-2
1-3
1-3
2-2
2-2
7-9
7-9
Dallas
2-2
2-2
3-2
3-2
2-2
1-3
3-1
2-2
10-7
8-9
Denver
1-3
2-2
1-3
1-3
2-2
2-2
2-2
2-2
6-10
7-9
Detroit
3-1
2-2
3-1
3-1
4-0
4-0
2-2
2-2
12-4
11-5
Green Bay
3-1
3-1
2-2
2-1-1
3-1
1-2-1
2-2
2-2
10-6
8-6-2
Houston
2-2
2-2
1-3
1-3
3-1
3-1
3-1
3-1
9-7
9-7
Indianapolis
1-3
1-3
0-4
1-3
1-3
2-2
2-2
3-1
4-12
7-9
Jacksonville
1-3
2-1-1
2-2
3-1
1-3
0-4
3-1
2-2
7-9
7-8-1
Kansas City
0-4
0-4
1-3
0-3-1
0-4
0-3-1
1-3
1-3
2-14
1-13-2
Miami
4-0
3-0-1
2-2
1-3
3-1
3-1
0-4
0-4
9-7
7-8-1
Minnesota
3-1
3-1
3-1
3-1
2-2
2-2
1-3
1-3
9-7
9-7
N. England
3-1
2-2
2-2
2-1-1
2-2
2-2
1-3
0-4
8-8
6-9-1
N. Orleans
3-1
3-1
2-2
3-1
2-2
2-2
2-3
4-1
9-8
12-5
NY Giants
1-3
1-3
2-2
1-2-1
2-2
2-2
2-2
3-1
7-9
7-8-1
NY Jets
2-2
3-1
2-2
2-2
2-2
2-2
0-4
0-4
6-10
7-9
Oakland
1-3
2-2
3-1
2-1-1
0-4
0-4
1-3
2-2
5-11
6-9-1
Philadelphia
1-3
0-4
2-2
1-3
3-1
3-1
4-0
3-0-1
10-6
7-8-1
Pittsburgh
3-1
3-1
3-1
3-1
3-1
3-1
3-1
1-2-1
12-4
10-5-1
San Diego
2-2
2-1-1
1-3
1-2-1
2-2
1-2-1
3-1
3-1
8-8
7-6-3
San Fran
3-1
1-3
4-0
3-0-1
2-2
2-2
3-1
3-1
12-4
9-6-1
Seattle
4-0
4-0
1-3
0-3-1
2-2
3-1
4-0
4-0
11-5
11-4-1
St. Louis
3-1
3-1
3-1
3-1
4-0
3-1
2-2
3-1
12-4
12-4
Tampa Bay
1-3
1-3
2-2
3-1
2-2
3-1
2-2
2-2
7-9
9-7
Tennessee
3-2
2-2-1
2-2
2-2
3-1
3-1
3-1
2-2
11-6
9-7-1
Washington
1-3
2-2
2-2
2-2
3-1
3-1
3-1
2-2
9-7
9-7




Tags: NFL




NFL Handicapping: Rules may hinder Kelly's up-tempo offense

07.30.2013     01:44 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Philadelphia Eagles first-year head coach Chip Kelly wants to run a play every 12 seconds. NFL rules may not allow it.


"We have to make sure teams understand that they don't control the tempo, our officials do," NFL vice president of officiating Dean Blandino told The Wall Street Journal. "We're going through our normal ball mechanics, we aren't going to rush [unless] it's in the two minute drill."






Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles




Teddy Covers' NFL Season O/U Report Will Be Released Today!

07.30.2013     06:39 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

Click here to purchase

copy_tc_nfl_o_u_2.jpg

Below is the written analysis Teddy provided to his clients with last year's O/U Win Report. He went 4-0-1 with his recommendations.


2012 NFL Season Win Total Report: Part 1

All lines in this report are current as of 10 AM Pacific on Tuesday, July 31st.  Teams are listed in alphabetical order.  I used seven offshore sports books (Pinnacle, Bookmaker, Greek, Bovada, Grande, ABC Islands and WSEX ) as fodder for my ‘best available current line’, but there’s no reason to think that you won’t be able to find a better number elsewhere – line shoppers are routinely rewarded in the Over-Under win total marketplace. 

Each and every one of these numbers is also available at the sportsbooks here in Las Vegas, but I used the offshore numbers in this report knowing that many clients don’t have access to the Vegas numbers.  It is VERY important to get the win totals posted on this report – a half game can make an enormous difference, Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers



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