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October

31

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NFL Betting Recap: More ugly TNF as San Francisco rolls over St. Louis

09.27.2013     07:11 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

There was a lot of talk in cyberspace today about how lousy Thursday Night NFL games have been. Figured I’d spend some time during a lousy first half logging what’s been happening in recent years. How do you define a “good” game for TV purposes? Everybody loves high scoring thrillers…but that shouldn’t be the standard every game has to live up to. I settled on these:

*Decided by one score (final margin is 8 points or less)

*Goes Over the Las Vegas total

*Ignore season openers because those have extended preparation time

NY Jets/New England two weeks ago was a close game at 13-10. But, it was still a pretty horrible game in terms of offensive execution. Entertainment usually means points on the board. So, I was looking for a combination of drama and production in a Thursday Night NFL game where teams only had three days to prepare. General run-of-the-mill Thursday Night football games on the NFL Read more


Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers St. Louis Rams




NFL Gambling Alert: Vikings to start Cassel vs. Steelers

09.27.2013     06:11 AM     Printer Friendly
Pittsburgh -3 vs. Minnesota O/U 42

With Christian Ponder sidelined with a broken rib, the Minnesota Vikings will give Matt Cassel the starting nod for Sunday's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers (in London). Cassel played in nine games last season for the Kansas City Chiefs with a 6-12 TD-to-INT ratio.

Come at me, bro...





Tags: NFL Minnesota Vikings Pittsburgh Steelers




NFL Gambling Preview: Seattle Seahawks vs. Houston Texans

09.26.2013     02:30 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Seattle at Houston
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Seattle -3 (-120) O/U 45
CRIS Current: Seattle -2 O/U 41.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Seattle -2.5
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Over

The Houston Texans stock is beginning to slide after three very underwhelming performances to start the season. Current media and fan scrutiny make things sound a bit worse than what they actually are according to this week’s power ratings which show Houston just 1.5 points below their season opening number. The betting public’s expectations haven’t been met by hea coach Gary Kubiak’s team as they’ve gone 0-3 ATS and shredded a lot of tickets. Line movement this week indicates bettors haven’t given up on Houston as they’ve remained a +2/+2.5-point underdog fairly steadily the past three days. It makes sense to believe that at some point the Texans are going to play up to their talent level and Read more


Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks Houston Texans Rob Veno




NFL Handicapping: Estimated Market Power Ratings - Week 4

09.26.2013     06:47 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Updating our estimate of how “the market” currently has NFL teams rated on a Power Rating scale…

Estimated NFL Market Power Ratings

87: Seattle, Denver

85: Green Bay

84: New Orleans (at home)

83: San Francisco, New Orleans (road)

82: New England

81: Houston, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Dallas

80: Chicago, Miami, Baltimore, Indianapolis

79: Philadelphia, Kansas City, Detroit

78: Carolina, Washington

77: Tennessee, St. Louis, Arizona, NY Giants

76: San Diego, Pittsburgh, NY Jets, Tampa Bay (with Glennon)

75: Minnesota

74: Cleveland (with Hoyer)

73: Buffalo (seemingly docked because Spiller is hobbled)

72: Oakland (with Flynn)

69: Jacksonville

I think some of the goofy things we talked about a week ago have been rectified. Some of those were rectified over the weekend when sharps hit Baltimore hard late vs. Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping Trends: Non-Conference Totals

09.25.2013     01:17 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The natural order of game importance in the NFL is one of the first things any handicapper/bettor has to learn and subsequently apply. Divisional games are by far the most important to all teams followed by conference and then non-conference. That being known, the general theories are as follows: 1) division games will be hotly contested and potentially lower scoring because of team familiarity, 2) conference action will be intense but maybe not quite as intense as division rivalries and 3) non-conference tilts are the games where letdowns and lesser focus can enable abnormal scores to occur. Of course this knowledge is simply a starting point and nothing more than one of many ingredients to be considered in each individual game handicap. Because there are eight of them this week, I’m going to use this article to look at handicapping non-conference totals.

So far this season, there have been 13 non-conference games played and the record sits at 8-5 61.5% to the over. All 13 games have had final score differentials of at least 3.5 points from the closing total and 10 of the 13 (76.9%) have ended 11.5 points or more off of the closer. Those are 10 very easy wins Read more


Tags: NFL Rob Veno




NFL Gambling News: Buccaneers bench Freeman, give Glennon a shot

09.25.2013     06:53 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Arizona at Tampa Bay -3 O/U 40.5

After a 0-3 start, the Buccaneers are making a move at quarterback with Josh Freeman on the pine and Mike Glennon slated to start Sunday's game vs. Arizona. Similar to last week with Cleveland's switch from Brandon Weeden to Brian Hoyer, there doesn't seem to be a reason to downgrade the position despite Glennon making his first-ever start. The betting markets agree as the line for Sunday's game hasn't budged since the announcement.


"This league is about finding a franchise quarterback and with Josh's roller-coaster career, we don't feel he's that guy," a team source said.






Tags: NFL Tampa Bay Buccaneers Arizone Cardinals




NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 3

09.25.2013     06:15 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Breaking Down The Undefeated and Winless ATS Teams
Like I did last week, I will take a look at the groups of winless and undefeated ATS teams after Week 3 of the season. Dallas, Miami, Seattle and the New York Jets are 3-0 ATS. Houston, St. Louis, Jacksonville, New York Giants, Pittsburgh, and Washington are 0-3 ATS.

Dallas had a dominant showing on both sides of the football against St. Louis. Miami was heavily outgained by Atlanta but put together a last minute game winning touchdown drive to get the win. Seattle crushed lowly Jacksonville. The NY Jets won the battle of rookie quarterbacks against Buffalo. I think the team most likely to fall out of the undefeated ATS ranks in Week 4 is Miami who will be taking a step up in class on the road against a New Orleans Saints team that has played solid defense for the first time in ages to go along with their potent offense.

The New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers are two teams that have been very good for nearly a decade yet they here they sit, 0-3 ATS. And I’m not sure either one has it in them to turn things around and get back on track. Both teams’ struggles show how Read more


Tags: NFL Ian Cameron




NFL Betting Recap: Denver Broncos drill Oakland Raiders

09.24.2013     07:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Numbers and notes from Denver’s easy win over Oakland…

Denver 37 (-16), Oakland 21

Oakland: 342 yards, 6.7 per-play, 1 turnovers, 42% third downs

Denver : 536 yards, 7.3 per-play, 3 turnovers, 56% third downs

Other Numbers

Rushing Yards: Oakland 49, Denver 164

Passing Stats: Oakland 21-31-0-293, Denver 32-37-0-372

Drive Points: Oakland 14, Denver 21

Stat Score: Oakland 17, Denver 31

Sloppiness: Oakland 15, Denver 10

Pace Factor: 147 (offensive plays…plus penalties…plus punts…plus FG attempts)

You can tell that Peyton Manning was doing whatever he wanted to. What a passing line! His teammates kept fumbling the ball away. That plus some relaxation from the defense is how a 30-7 third quarter clubbing turned into a finish that put the game near the Vegas spread. Oakland’s offensive numbers were helped by that extended garbage time. Read more


Tags: NFL Oakland Raiders Denver Broncos Stat Intelligence




NFL Gambling: St. Louis Rams try to shrug off back-to-back no-shows

09.24.2013     07:52 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
San Francisco -3 at St. Louis O/U 42

Always calm and collected, St. Louis head coach Jeff Fisher seems confident his squad will be able to put two straight weeks of horrendous play (trailed Atlanta 21-0, and Dallas 24-0) behind them as they prepare for Thursday's game against San Francisco.


“This is a defining moment for us right now,” Fisher said. “We’ve got to get past this and get ready for the 49ers.”

“Oh, they’ll be fine,” Fisher said Monday when asked how his team will respond. “I’m not concerned about them putting this behind them, moving forward. All you have to do is put on a series here or a series there of our matchup last year in one of the two games against the 49ers and we’ll have their attention.”






Tags: NFL St. Louis Rams San Francisco 49ers




NFL Betting Consensus: Bettors on Denver Broncos and OVER for tonight's MNF game

09.23.2013     02:06 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oakland at Denver -16 O/U 49

Here are the top consensus bets for tonight's Monday Night Football game between the Oakland Raiders and Denver Broncos courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

SIDE
Denver -16 (75.0%) vs. Oakland

TOTAL
Oakland-Denver OVER 49 (81.3%)



Tags: NFL Oakland Raiders Denver Broncos



44

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