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NFL Handicapping: Teams destine to decline after breakout campaigns
07.16.2012 12:08 PM
Printer Friendly
Good article by the
National Football Post
on the decline of teams off of "comeback" double-digit win seasons. This is hardly a new concept to oddsmakers and the betting markets but it continues to churn out very consistent results. Detroit, San Francisco and Houston are all "qualifiers" heading into the upcoming campaign.
And in 26 of those instances, teams followed up that impressive 10-win campaign with a record of 9-7 or worse. What does that tell us? Since 2002, there’s an 89.6% chance that a team who bounces back from a losing season to post ten or more wins the following fall is headed for a step in the wrong direction come year three.
What’s even more shocking is that the drop-off that takes place in year three is more significant than you might expect. In those aforementioned instances, the 26 teams that qualified for this study lost an average of 3.9 more games the year after they broke through with ten or more wins the previous season.
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Sportsbook offers prop on whether or not NJ residents will be able to bet on the NFL
07.03.2012 01:09 PM
Printer Friendly
Blogger
David Pardum
pointed out BetOnline's current prop bet on whether or not New Jersey residents will be able to make a straight bet on a Week 1 NFL game. The "No" is -900 which suggest it ain't gonna happen.
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NFL Gambling News: Oddsmakers agree that later start time means bigger handle
07.03.2012 11:10 AM
Printer Friendly
UPDATE
Article from
ESPN's Chad Millman
on the NFL's decision to push back the start of the late afternoon games.
"It will help, there is no doubt. And since they are doing it, I'd like to see the league stagger the schedule even more," says Vaccaro. "Let's start some games at 10 a.m. Vegas time and others at 11 a.m. And let's turn Monday nights into a doubleheader every week."
"For years, sports-book directors have been saying this was necessary," longtime Vegas reporter Dave Tuley told me last night. Added Lucky's Jimmy Vaccaro, "The 4:15 start had been getting tight. Now I don't think we will ever shut anyone out."
Bettors rejoice after NFL pushes back afternoon start times
06.28.2012
Read more
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Football Handicapping: The impact of travel in the NFL
07.03.2012 08:45 AM
Printer Friendly
Grantland's
Bill Barnwell
did some extensive research on the impact of travel in the NFL.
As you might suspect, the NFC West gets royally jobbed by their travel requirements every year. Of the 10 longest distances traveled by teams in a given season over the past 10 years, seven belong to either the Seahawks or the 49ers.
The Steelers played 15 of their 16 games in the Eastern time zone, with a lone trip to the Central time zone waiting for them against the Titans in Week 16. Part of that is a lucky out-of-division schedule, but the Steelers also benefit by playing in a division with three opponents who each reside within 260 miles or so of Pittsburgh.
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NFL Handicapping: Bettors not bullish on Baltimore Ravens
07.02.2012 12:28 PM
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Las Vegas bettors appear to be shying away from the
Baltimore Ravens
in the futures market. Station Casinos opened the Ravens 8/1 to win the Super Bowl but due to a lukewarm reception at the betting window, their odds were dropped to 15/1. The Saints were another team that hasn't drawn much interest having dropped from 6/1 to 18/1 to win the Super Bowl.
“A tough schedule and the loss of Terrell Suggs have the Ravens headed in the wrong direction at the sportsbooks,” wrote National Football Post’s Joe Fortenbaugh. “Plus, it’s not like Joe Flacco is inspiring the masses to rush to the counters with Baltimore love in their collective hearts.”
Baltimore Ravens Futures @ Pinnacle
Season O/U Wins: 10
AFC Championship: +857
SUPER BOWL XLVII: +1897
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Baltimore Ravens
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Bettors rejoice after NFL pushes back afternoon start times
06.28.2012 11:52 AM
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The NFL announced it will push back the start of
late-afternoon games
by 10 minutes – a move that a lot of bettors seem pleased about. Comments below are priceless.
rodgy10 says:
Jun 28, 2012 11:12 AM
This is awesome for online gamblers who just went all in on a game at 12 and want to get action on the 2nd wave of games……I’ve been there ….plenty of times
actiondanwi says:
Jun 28, 2012 11:22 AM
One thing the NFL may not realize, and they should…
this helps Las Vegas (and local bookmakers). I know plenty of guys who are sweating out their noon games to determine their play on the 3 o clockers.
Now if Joe Parlay knows he hit his noon win, he’s likely to let it ride at 3:25 instead of making perhaps just a modest wager right before kickoff, if the first game is still in question.
Cha-ching.
notthatguy87 says:
Jun 28, 2012 11:32 AM
Yesss, more time for me to figure out how I’m going to break even
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Indianapolis Colts owner Tweets about Week 1 pointspread
06.27.2012 07:27 AM
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Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Isray is a bit shocked his team is a 10-point underdog for Week 1's game at Chicago.
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Indianapolis Colts
Chicago Bears
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NFL Betting Notes: AFC East teams switching to 4-3 defense
06.18.2012 01:05 PM
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Article from
ESPN's John Clayton
on the change in defensive philosophy taking place in the AFC East. At one time, virtually everyone ran a 3-4 system but the 4-3 now seems to be the weapon of choice. Clayton thinks the switch will become more common throughout the league over the next few years.
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NFL Gambling News and Notes: CRIS posts lines on Week 1
06.14.2012 10:37 AM
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CRIS finally posted its NFL Week 1 lines today. LVH was one of the first sportsbooks to do so – and offer good limits – back on April 18. Pinnacle followed suit on April 23. Below are CRIS and Pinnacle's openers as well as Pinnacle's current lines.
2012 NFL Week 1 Opening Lines - CRIS and Pinnacle
Away
Home
CRIS Opener
Pinnacle Opener
Pinnacle Current
Dallas
NY Giants
NYG -3 (-124)
NYG -3 (-120)
NYG -3 (-120)
Indianapolis
Chicago
CHI -10
CHI -9 (-104)
CHI -9.5 (-115)
Philadelphia
Cleveland
PHI -8.5
PHI -6.5 (-104)
PHI 9 (+102)
Buffalo
NY Jets
NYJ -4.5
NYJ -6 (-104)
NYJ -4.5 (+102)
Washington
New Orleans
NO -9.5
NO -8.5 (-104)
NO -9.5 (-104)
New England
Tennessee
NE -6.5
NE -7 (-104)
NE -7 (+110)
Jacksonville
Minnesota
MIN -4.5
MIN -4.5 (-104)
MIN -4.5 (-104)
Miami
Houston
HOU -7
HOU -6.5 (-104)
HOU -7 (-103)
St. Louis
Detroit
DET -9
DET -9.5 -9 (-104)
DET -9 (+104)
Atlanta
Kansas City
ATL -1
ATL -1 (-104)
ATL -1 (-108)
San Francisco
Green Bay
GB -6.5
GB -7 (-104)
GB -6.5 (-104)
Carolina
Tampa Bay
CAR -3
CAR -3 (ev)
CAR -3 (+104)
Seattle
Arizona
ARI -1.5
ARI -1 (-104)
ARI -1 (-119)
Pittsburgh
Denver
DEN -2
DEN -3.5 (+110)
DEN -3 (+120)
Cincinnati
Baltimore
BAL -6.5
BAL -7 (+104)
BAL -6.5 (+104)
San Diego
Oakland
OAK PK
OAK -1 (-104)
OAK 1 (ev)
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NFL Handicapping: 49ers favored to win Super Bowl XLVII at MGM sportsbooks
06.04.2012 02:13 PM
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According to reports, bettors have been hammering the
San Francisco 49ers
to win Super Bowl XLVII at Las Vegas' MGM sportsbooks. They are now down to 4-1 which for the time being makes them the betting favorite. Meanwhile, Cantor and LVH have San Fran at a much more realistic 10-1. Don't forget, the 49ers went from
-1 to +28 in turnover margin
in one season so it would be wise to expect some sort of regression in that department.
“They’re by far drawing the most” money, Jay Rood, the vice president of race and sports at MGM, said of the Niners, who won 13 games a season ago and fell in the NFC title game.
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