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September

21

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NFL Handicapping: Estimated Market Power Ratings - Week 1

09.04.2013     07:03 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Picking up with our continuing efforts to estimate the composite de facto “Power Ratings” represented by the NFL betting lines (oddsmakers openers after being improved by sharp action)…

For newcomers, these aren’t my personal Power Ratings. This is my guess at how “the market” has the teams rated based on:

*This week’s current pointspreads

*What we know about future “game of the year” lines that received sharp action in the market

*How the teams were rated at the end of last year

*Common sense tweaks based on offseason and Preseason developments

A zillion places have their own Power Ratings (and, based on reading twitter today, it might be two zillion). Many market followers consider “the market” to be “the sum of all Power Ratings.” This is an effort to get that “sum of all Power Ratings” represented on paper.

To do that, I start by making Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: CRIS vs. Rob Veno's Power Ratings Week 1

09.04.2013     06:32 AM     Printer Friendly
Here's a chart of CRIS's current lines and Rob Veno's NFL Power Ratings for Week 1.

2013 NFL CRIS Lines vs. Rob Veno Power Ratings - Week 1
Away
Home
CRIS Current
Veno Power
Baltimore
Denver
Denver -7.5
Denver -5
New England
Buffalo
New England -9.5
New England -5.5
Tennessee
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh -7 (-105)
Pittsburgh -7
Atlanta
New Orleans
New Orleans -3 (-120)
New Orleans -1.5
Tampa Bay
NY Jets
Tampa Bay -3 (-120)
Tampa Bay -2.5
Kansas City
Jacksonville
Kansas City -3.5
Kansas City -1
Cincinnati
Chicago
Chicago -3 (-115)
Chicago -2.5
Miami
Cleveland
Cleveland -1
Cleveland -2
Seattle
Carolina
Seattle -3.5 (ev)
Seattle -4.5
Minnesota
Detroit
Detroit -6
Detroit -1.5
Oakland
Indianapolis
Indianapolis -9.5
Indianapolis -12.5
Arizona
St. Louis
St. Louis -4.5
St. Louis -6
Green Bay
San Francisco
San Francisco -4.5
San Francisco -5.5
NY Giants
Dallas
Dallas -3.5
Dallas -2.5
Philadelphia
Washington
Washington -3 (-125)
Washington -7
Houston
San Diego
Houston -3.5
Houston -4.5




Tags: NFL Rob Veno




NFL Handicapping: Washington's Griffin ready to go for Week 1

09.03.2013     07:44 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Philadelphia at Washington -3.5 O/U 51.5

Not surprising but Washington announced that Robert Griffin III will start Monday's Week 1 game against Philadelphia. The Redskins went 4-0 SU/ATS during the preseason despite Griffin's absence.


"If we didn't feel Robert was full-go and ready to play and do all the things you ask a guy to do, he would not be playing in this game," Shanahan said. "If that's sprinting out, if it's running the option, if it's drop back, he can do all those things because he proved it to us in practice."






Tags: NFL Washington Redskins Philadelphia Eagles




NFL Betting Update: Sources say Oakland's Pryor will start Week 1

09.03.2013     07:39 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Oakland at Indianapolis -9.5 O/U 47

It's official (somewhat): the Oakland Raiders will start Terrelle Pryor for Week 1's game at Indianapolis. During the preseason, Oakland's offense was significantly better (by their standards) with Pryor under center.





NFL Handicapping: Raiders may start Pryor over Flynn

08.29.2013     07:24 AM     View Original Read more


Tags: NFL Oakland Raiders Indianapolis Colts




NFL Betting Trends: Week 1 Thursday stand-alone home teams

09.03.2013     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly
Solid trend here with NFL home teams playing Week 1 Thursday stand-alone games currently 9-1 SU, 6-2-2 ATS. The Denver Broncos obviously fit the profile for Thursday's game against the Baltimore Ravens.

NFL Week 1 Thursday Home Teams
Date
Team
Opponent
Score
Line
SU
ATS
9/5/02
Giants
49ers
13-16
3.5
Loss
Win
9/4/03
Redskins
Jets
16-13
-3
Win
Push
9/9/04
Patriots
Colts
27-24
-3.5
Win
Loss
9/8/05
Patriots
Raiders
30-20
-7.5
Win
Win
9/7/06
Steelers
Dolphins
28-17
-1.5
Win
Win
9/6/07
Colts
Saints
41-10
-6
Win
Win
9/4/08
Giants
Redskins
16-7
-4
Win
Win
9/10/09
Steelers
Titans
13-10
-6
Win
Loss
9/9/10
Saints
Vikings
14-9
-5
Win
Push
9/8/11
Packers
Saints
42-34
-4.5
Win
Win
9/5/13
Broncos
Ravens
???
-8.5
???
???
Results
 
 
 
 
9-1
6-2-2




Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Baltimore Ravens




NFL Gambling Trends: Week 1 Playoff Revenge

09.03.2013     07:24 AM     Printer Friendly
Note a huge sample but here are the betting results for NFL Week 1 playoff revenge. Since 2002, teams seeking revenge went 3-6 SU and 4-4-1 ATS. Denver lost to Baltimore 38-35 (OT) as 9.5-point favorites while Green Bay lost to San Francisco 45-31 as 3-point underdogs.

NFL Week 1 Playoff Revenge 2002-present
Date
Team
Opponent
Site
Score
Line
SU
ATS
9/9/02
Steelers
Patriots
Away
14-30
-2.5
L
L
9/7/03
Titans
Raiders
Home
25-20
-3
W
W
9/8/03
Eagles
Buccaneers
Home
0-17
-3
L
L
9/9/04
Colts
Patriots
Away
24-27
+3.5
L
W
9/12/05
Falcons
Eagles
Home
14-10
+1
W
W
9/9/07
Jets
Patriots
Home
14-38
+6.5
L
L
9/9/10
Vikings
Saints
Away
9-14
+5
L
P
9/11/11
Ravens
Steelers
Home
35-7
-2
W
W
9/9/12
Steelers
Broncos
Away
19-31
+2
L
L
9/5/13
Broncos
Ravens
Home
???
-8.5
???
???
9/8/13
Packers
49ers
Away
???
+4.5
???
???
Results
 
 
 
 
 
3-6
4-4-1




Tags: NFL




NFL Betting Podcast 9-2-2013 with Handicapper Teddy Covers

09.02.2013     09:49 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy gave his thoughts and opinions on the line moves for Week 1 of the NFL regular season.

Today's segments
Teddy Covers - NFL Opening Line Report Week 1

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Jets likely to start Geno Smith Week 1 vs. Bucs

08.30.2013     07:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tampa Bay -3 at New York Jets O/U 39.5

With Mark Sanchez "unlikely" to play Week 1's game against Tampa Bay, it looks as if rookie Geno Smith is the de facto starter. Tampa Bay remains a 3-point favorite (with juice).



Tags: NFL New York Jets Tampa Bay Buccaneers




NFL Handicapping: Raiders may start Pryor over Flynn

08.29.2013     07:24 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Despite signing Matt Flynn during the offseason, the Oakland Raiders are hinting that they may go with Terrelle Pryor as their Week 1 starter. The same Terrelle Pryor who admitted earlier this summer that he basically didn't know how to throw a football. That said, Pryor has shown the ability to make plays, something the Raiders sure could use. He's expected to start tonight's game against Seattle.


“We signed Matt [Flynn] with the thought being that he’s going to come in and be the starter, and we would have that package for Terrelle,” Olson said. “But Terrelle has done some things in these preseason games that we’ve been excited about; stuff that a lot of people are excited about. With his success on the field, we’ll continue to add to that package. It was the thought process going in to it. There wasn’t a big package for him a year ago, so we had to absorb that first part. As we continue to grow Read more



Tags: NFL Oakland Raiders




NFL Preseason Betting: Browns may play starters some vs. Bears

08.28.2013     08:18 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cleveland -2.5 at Chicago O/U 39.5

Following last week's dismal showing vs. Indianapolis, Cleveland head coach Rob Chudzinksi said the starters could see time in the team's preseason finale. It may have been just a knee-jerk reaction however as Chudzinksi has yet to commit to anything. The Bears meanwhile are not expecting to play any starters hence the market move from Chicago -2.5 to Cleveland -2.5.


"We’re going to approach this next game that those guys are going to play,'' he said. "And then I’ll make that determination later in the week as it goes on.”

“We’re going to practice all three days,” Trestman said. “We’ll have a shorter practice on Wednesday, but we’re Read more



Tags: NFL Cleveland Browns Chicago Bears



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September

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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 21, 2014 05:04 AM.