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Teddy Covers Las Vegas Wise Guys Report: NFL Season O/U Wins

07.15.2013     10:16 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve written a couple of columns about the first NFL win totals posted here in Las Vegas. Now that the betting markets are starting to mature, it’s time to take another look at the Over/Under win totals for all 32 teams for the coming year. This week’s focus is on strength of schedule for the upcoming campaign.

I closed out my last column on NFL win totals by looking back at last year’s final strength of schedule, based on my power rating numbers for each opponent on the week that the game was played. Here was my final assessment:

“The New York Giants faced single toughest schedule from last year based on my numbers on the weeks the games were played. The Saints weren’t far behind. Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, Baltimore and St Louis all faced abnormally tough slates.
“On the easy side, the Colts, Texans and Bengals all stood out; by far the three easiest schedules in the league. Miami, Atlanta and San Diego also had much easier than average slates. In my next column, I’ll write about the next step in the process -- identifying accurate strength of schedule numbers for 2013.”

That Read more


Tags: NFL Season Wins Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Notes on Power Ratings for the 2013 Season

07.05.2013     06:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As we get closer to the NFL season, you’re going to see a lot of prediction articles in the mainstream and stathead media. The fact that Las Vegas now actively markets and publicizes their Regular Season Win Total propositions has certainly helped. Sportwriters and fans loved making predictions anyway. Now there’s an outline of expectations that people can refer too.

The stathead articles in this area all basically say the same thing over and over again. This has been true for years. I used to ghostwrite them myself…until it got boring just repeating the same things over and over again. The general themes are:
 
*Assume that turnover extremes will regress toward the mean

*Assume that records in close games will regress toward the mean

*Be skeptical of teams with bad point differentials who had decent records

*Be sure you know who played easy schedules and who played hard schedules

*Remember who had key injuries, and pencil in good Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Let the Chip Kelly era begin

07.01.2013     12:40 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The over/under on number of blogs dedicated to Philadelphia Eagles first-year head coach Chip Kelly and how fast/slow/good/bad the offense is this season is currently 83.5. Here's one that focuses in on who exactly will be the starting quarterback. The short answer is no one knows at this point. Michael Vick and Nick Foles are expected to see plenty of PT during the preseason.


"Who can move us the best, and who gets the football team up and down the field," Kelly said. "You know that's the most important thing. It doesn't have to be that he throws a prettier ball or all those things. There [are] a lot of different things. How do you manage a game? How do you secure the football? Are we not turning it over? Are we constantly moving in a positive direction? Are we getting into third-and-short and converting them? Things like that. It really is who moves the team the best is what we are looking for at the quarterbacks."






Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles




NFL Gambling News: Charles says Kansas City Chiefs offense ready for big things

06.27.2013     12:37 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
There is simply no shame when it comes from predicting offensive improvement these days. Yesterday we blogged that the Rams' offense was "a thousand years ahead of last year." Today we head across the Show-Me State to Kansas City where the Chiefs – who were held to single digits six times last season – are calling for their offense to be "explosive." The statement came courtesy of running back Jamaal Charles who says head coach Andy Reid and the introduction of the pistol offense are going to lead to big things. Note that KC hired former Nevada head coach (and pistol offensive inventor) Chris Ault as a consultant.


"I ran it my rookie year and I love it," Charles said on NFL Network's "NFL AM" on Thursday. "I ain't never been around no offense that's about to be explosive and about to put me Read more



Tags: NFL Kansas City Chiefs




NFL Handicapping: Rams see continuity with Bradford and OC as springboard to better offense

06.26.2013     11:29 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
If we had a nickel for every time a football team said their offense was "a thousand years ahead of last year" we'd have more than enough money to bet against that occurring. But perhaps the St. Louis Rams WILL improve after averaging only 18.7 ppg and 329 ypg of total offense last season. The key could be quarterbacking Sam Bradford working with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer for a second straight year.


“The day Sam walked back into the building [this offseason] we started making adjustments,” Schottenheimer said, via Mike Sando of ESPN.com. “We are a thousand years ahead of where we were last year.”






Tags: NFL St. Louis Rams




NFL Gambling News: Tennessee Titans hope simple means better

06.26.2013     11:09 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains, who took over for Chris Palmer late last season, has made simplicity the focus of summer camp.  The Titans ranked 26th in total offensive (313.1 ypg) in 2012.


“You cut out as much mental clutter as possible,” said Loggains, who was promoted from quarterbacks coach. “Some of the play calls are still long, but I feel like we have done a good job streamlining it and making the verbiage as small as possible.”

“It’s just not telling each guy what he has all the time,” Locker said of relaying the play to his teammates. “We are doing more content stuff. So, hey, this is a concept, so no matter where you are lined up, the guys will end up in the same spot (during the play). That’s kind of the idea of it.”





Tags: NFL Tennessee Titans




NFL Betting News: Carolina OC Mike Shula wants to use no-huddle

06.26.2013     07:46 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oh boy. Here is the first of literally hundreds of no-huddle/up-tempo articles for the upcoming college and pro football seasons. The Carolina Panthers, under first-year offensive coordinator Mike Shula, are reportedly ready to go that route.



Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers




NFL Gambling News: Aaron Hernandez arrested, released by Patriots

06.26.2013     07:36 AM     Printer Friendly
The Aaron Hernandez saga probably isn't on many bettors' radar – what would an NFL offseason be like without a bunch of dudes in legal limbo? However, news just broke that Hernandez not only was arrested but released from the New England Patriots. Now THAT is something bettors will notice. Of course it just adds to the Pats' already dire receiver situation.

copy_hernandez.JPG



Tags: NFL New England Patriots




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Baltimore Ravens pegged for regression in 2013

06.24.2013     01:09 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I wrote about the Kansas City Chiefs, using them as the poster child for an NFL team that the betting markets expect significant improvement from in 2013.  This week, I’ll be writing about the Baltimore Ravens, using John Harbaugh’s squad as the poster child for a team the betting markets expect to regress significantly in the upcoming campaign.  Why do the markets disrespect Baltimore so much?  Read on to find out!

Let me start by clarifying exactly how the betting markets aren’t impressed with the Ravens heading into the start of training camp.  The numbers show it clearly.  The defending Super Bowl champs are lined as an 8.5 win team.  Eleven different teams are lined higher (Atlanta, Denver, Green Bay, Houston, New England, New Orleans, the New York Giants, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Seattle; all lined at nine wins or more).  Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas and Indianapolis are all lined in the same range (8.5 wins) as Baltimore.  Clearly, from a season wins perspective, the markets aren’t impressed with Baltimore, ranking them as a middle-of-the-pack ballclub.
It’s the same story for Read more


Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers




Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers talks NFL Week 1 on today's Podcast

06.21.2013     09:35 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy gave out his thoughts and opinions (as well as a free play) on Week 1 of the NFL.

Today's segments
Teddy Covers - Week 1 NFL (Free Play)

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jul 30, 2014 12:13 PM.