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NFL Handicapping: Estimated Market Power Ratings - Week 3

09.19.2013     07:27 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Wow…we really have a muddy middle this week…with a lot of question marks as to where teams really stack up in the 77-81 section of our scale…and arguably in the 74-82 section. I mean…you know about where they stand. But, trying to pin down 77’s and 78’s is really tough given the Wednesday afternoon lines because:

*A few teams who were supposed to be 78-81ish are off to poor starts

*A few teams who were supposed to be 71-74ish are off to strong starts against expectations

*Some teams who aren’t covering seem to be getting MORE respect (St. Louis)

*Some teams getting rocked aren’t dropping like rocks (Washington)

Let me run the numbers…then I’ll talk about many specific games where the couplet could arguably go a touch higher or lower depending on how you’ve evaluated performance so far. If you’re new to the site…

*These are an estimate of Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

NFL Gambling Trends: 49ers look to bounce back after loss to Seahawks

09.18.2013     02:19 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Indianapolis at San Francisco -10 O/U 46

Under Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers have a pretty strong record following a loss. Dating back to 2011, San Fran is a perfect 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS. Five of those seven wins came by two touchdowns or more.

at Cincinnati - 13-8 Win SU, Win ATS +1.5
vs. St. Louis - 26-0 Win SU, Win ATS -14
vs. Pittsburgh - 20-3 Win SU, Win ATS -2.5

at NY Jets - 34-0 Win SU, Win ATS -4
vs. Seattle - 13-6 Win SU, Loss ATS -8
vs. Miami - 27-13 Win SU, Win ATS -10.5
vs. Arizona - 27-13 Win SU, Loss ATS -16.5

Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Indianapolis Colts

NFL Gambling Alert: Cleveland Browns to start Hoyer at Minnesota

09.18.2013     08:08 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Cleveland at Minnesota -5.5 O/U 41

This has a good chance of working out. The Cleveland Browns have decided that Brian Hoyer – who was last spotted helping the Arizona Cardinals end 2012 as quickly as possible – will get the start on the road against Minnesota this week.

"When you're a quarterback in this league, you never know when your name's going to get called," said Hoyer, a Cleveland native. "So I study the same amount of film, I go out and practice, and even if I'm not taking the reps, I'm taking a mental rep every play, and that's the way I approach this job."

Tags: NFL Cleveland Browns Minnesota Vikings

NFL Handicapping: Rams' Fisher leery of no-huddle offense

09.18.2013     07:15 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
St. Louis at Dallas -4 O/U 47

A lot of chatter about St. Louis and the no-huddle following last week's flury of second half points (21) against Atlanta. Of course the players liked it because marching the ball up and down the field and putting points on the board is enjoyable. But head coach Jeff Fisher isn't falling for that trap. Fisher pointed out that the no-huddle was out of necessity and that it's not something the offense will do with any regularity moving forward.

“We did it because we got behind,” he said. “We have done it, obviously, early in the ballgame.”

“But you do it early in the ballgame against a guy like Matt Ryan, go 3-and-out, you got problems,” Fisher said, referring to the Falcons’ quarterback. “You’re putting him back Read more

Tags: NFL St. Louis Rams Dallas Cowboys

NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 2

09.17.2013     02:46 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
A “Total” Stalemate
Unders and Overs split right down the middle in Week 1 going 8-8 and it was more of the same in Week 2 with another 8-8 record. That 16 Overs and 16 Unders through the first two weeks of the season – give or take a few due depending on what sportsbook you play at. Those results suggest that oddsmakers are starting to catch up to how much the league has changed and how favorable everything is for offenses. Three games saw more than 60 points scored in Week 2 but on the flip side, there were also three games with fewer than 30 points scored. My best advice with totals is to disregard a lot of the trends floating around in the betting community – especially those that go back three or more years. The game has evolved and each one deserves its very own handicap with pace and situation two of many factors to consider.

Proof that Rookie Starting Quarterbacks Can Be Perfect
Raise your hand if you thought that E.J. Manuel and Geno Smith would be a combined 4-0 ATS through the first two weeks of the season. Manuel and Smith have had their flickers of solid play but neither has been consistent Read more

Tags: NFL Ian Cameron

NFL Gambling News: Dallas Cowboys desperate for running game

09.17.2013     12:57 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
St. Louis at Dallas -4 O/U 47

Look who wants to "re-commit" to running the football – the Dallas Cowboys, of course! They do have a point with passing plays accounting for 73% of the offense through two games. But it remains a broke record with this team – the focus is always on lack of balance, injuries, offensive line, or Tony Romo rather that winning football games. It's rare the every aspect of any football team works week in and week out but for the Cowboys, the inability to adjust and apply on the fly is the reason for their mediocre ways.

“We have to re-commit to the running game.’’

“DeMarco’s a good football player,’’ Garrett said, noting that the club’s best offensive work over the last few years has included a healthy Murray. “We got to get him more Read more

Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys St. Louis Rams

Monday Night Football Betting Recap: Bengals win and cover vs. Steelers

09.17.2013     08:01 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Not exactly the most exhilarating Monday Nighter. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals have played some bruising battles recently…and it was that kind of game again. You’ll see in the linescore that Cincinnati won by playing a cleaner game…and it was that cleaner game allowed them to win time of possession by more than 11 minutes.

Cincinnati 20 (-6), Pittsburgh 10

Pittsburgh: 278 yards, 5.1 per-play, 2 turnovers, 25% third downs

Cincinnati: 407 yards, 5.2 per-play, 0 turnovers, 41% third downs

On a per-play basis, they were virtually equal. Cincinnati moved the chains more effectively, which allowed them to keep the ball longer. Pittsburgh finished 3 of 12 on third down conversions…but it was 1 of 10 before they nailed a couple of irrelevant ones on their final drive that ran the clock out. Pittsburgh was only 10% when the game was being decided.

Other Numbers

Rushing Read more

Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers Cincinnati Bengals Stat Intelligence

NFL Handicapping: Pace Factor through Week 2

09.17.2013     07:59 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

With all the talk about teams trying to speed up their pace this year, I thought it might be a good idea to make an effort to monitor NFL pace as manageably as possible. A quick and dirty way to do that is to count up all the plays for each team from the boxscores (including possession-enders like field goals, punts, and turnovers), then look at the full game totals. Do that for a few weeks…and you can tell the fast from the slow just by their averages, medians, and how the numbers cluster.

I know there are ways to estimate individual offenses differently. The problem with that for me is that you have to dig into the play-by-play to figure out which penalties were offensive and which were defensive. Start doing that for every single game (while also tinkering on the side with college games), and it becomes time prohibitive. Current boxscores only show total penalties. Using full game totals includes those, and eventually helps paint the picture for you well enough.

Here now Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

NFL Gambling News: Buccaneers show signs of defensive improvement

09.17.2013     06:47 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
With much of the focus on Josh Freeman and the off-the-field circus brewing in Tampa, the Buccaneers have quietly put together strong defensive efforts in back-to-back games. Last season Tampa's pass defense was historically bad – 297.4 ypg allowed, 93.5 QB rating, 27 sacks. This year they're tied for the league lead with nine sacks and have picked off three passes while allowing on two touchdown passes. Offsetting some of that success has been penalties with the Bucs committing a league-high 23 infractions for 220 yards.

"It's tough. Any time you lose games the way we've lost the last two weeks, it hurts bad," Foster said Monday. "At the same time, it makes people more hungry. I feel that everybody on our team wants to push harder, wants to do the extra things now because we know we're right there."

Tags: NFL Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Monday Night Football Betting Consensus: Three out of four bettors backing Cincinnati Bengals

09.16.2013     02:36 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati -6 O/U 40

Here are the top consensus bets for tonight's Monday Night Football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

Cincinnati -6 (74.4%) vs. Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh-Cincinnati OVER 40 (51.4%

Cincinnati -260 (52.4%) vs. Pittsburgh

Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers Cincinnati Bengals


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