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Handicapper Teddy Covers' Super Bowl XLVI Gambling Preview
01.30.2012 10:34 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
The 2011 Super Bowl was not a good one for the sportsbooks here in Las Vegas and offshore. They underestimated the groundswell of support for Green Bay and the Over. Money poured in on the favorite, driving the line up as high as -3 from a -1 opener. And money poured in on the Over; the closing total was as high as 55 at several key locations. When the Packers won 31-25, bettors cashed in on both the side and total. It was the worst Super Bowl result for the books since the infamous Super Bowl XIII, back in January 1979 when the Steelers beat the Raiders 35-31 in a game that bounced between -3.5 and -4.5 all week – a dreaded “middle” for the biggest game of the year.
The books will have a definite rooting interest in the Super Bowl again this year, because for the second consecutive season, the books underestimated the support for the hot team down the stretch. New England opened as a 3.5-point favorite over the New York Giants in many key locations, with one influential sportsbook – the Wynn – even hanging a -4 on the Patriots.
-3.5 or -4 was not the correct line, as determined by the betting markets. The books spent the first week
Read more
Tags:
NFL
Super Bowl XLVI
New England Patriots
New York Giants
Teddy Covers
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Super Bowl Prop Bet Trends: Will There Be Three Straight Scores?
01.30.2012 07:16 AM
Printer Friendly
One of many prop bets that always draws interest from bettors is Will There Be Three Straight Scores? We went back on got the results of every Super Bowl and found that three straight scores occurred 31 times (68.8%). There was a 22-year stretch where it occurred 20 times but the trend has cooled off of late with just three of the last eight Super Bowls featuring three straight scores. Most sportsbooks are offering -200 on "Yes" and +160 on "No".
Super Bowl Prop Bet History - Three Straight Scores?
Year
Winner
Loser
Three Straight Scores?
2011
Green Bay (-3) 31
Pittsburgh 25
No
2010
New Orleans (+4.5) 31
Indianapolis 17
Yes
2009
Pittsburgh 27
Arizona (+6.5) 23
Yes
2008
NY Giants (+12.5) 17
New England 14
No
2007
Indianapolis (-7) 29
Chicago 17
Yes
2006
Pittsburgh (-4) 21
Seattle 10
No
2005
New England 24
Philadelphia (+7) 21
No
2004
New England 32
Carolina (+7) 29
No
2003
Tampa Bay (+4) 48
Oakland 21
Yes
2002
New England (+14) 20
St. Louis 17
Yes
2001
Baltimore (-3) 34
NY Giants 7
Yes
2000
St. Louis (-7) 23
Tennessee 16
Yes
1999
Denver (-7.5) 34
Atlanta 19
Yes
1998
Denver (+11) 31
Green Bay 24
Yes
1997
Green Bay (-14) 35
New England 21
Yes
1996
Dallas 27
Pittsburgh (+13.5) 17
Yes
1995
San Francisco (-18) 49
San Diego 26
No
1994
Dallas (-10.5) 30
Buffalo 13
Yes
1993
Dallas (-6.5) 52
Buffalo 17
Yes
1992
Washington (-7) 37
Buffalo 24
Yes
1991
NY Giants (+7) 20
Buffalo 19
Yes
1990
San Francisco (-12) 55
Denver 10
Yes
1989
San Francisco 20
Cincinnati (+7) 16
No
1988
Washington (+3) 42
Denver 10
Yes
1987
NY Giants (-9.5) 39
Denver 20
Yes
1986
Chicago (-10) 46
New England 10
Yes
1985
San Francisco (-3.5) 38
Miami 16
Yes
1984
LA Raiders (+3) 38
Washington 9
Yes
1983
Washington (+3) 27
Miami 17
Yes
1982
San Francisco (PK) 26
Cincinnati 21
Yes
1981
Oakland (+3) 27
Philadelphia 10
No
1980
Pittsburgh (-10.5) 31
Los Angeles 19
No
1979
Pittsburgh (-3.5) 35
Dallas 31
No
1978
Dallas (-6) 27
Denver 10
Yes
1977
Oakland (-4) 32
Minnesota 14
Yes
1976
Pittsburgh 21
Dallas (+7) 17
Yes
1975
Pittsburgh (-3) 16
Minnesota 6
No
1974
Miami (-6.5) 24
Minnesota 7
Yes
1973
Miami (+1.5) 14
Washington 7
No
1972
Dallas (-6) 24
Miami 3
No
1971
Baltimore (+2.5) 16
Dallas 13
No
1970
Kansas City (+12) 23
Minnesota 7
Yes
1969
NY Jets (+18) 16
Baltimore 7
Yes
1968
Green Bay (-13.5) 33
Oakland 14
Yes
1967
Green Bay (-14) 35
Kansas City 10
Yes
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Super Bowl XLVI Gambling: New England preps for New York's pass rush
01.30.2012 06:45 AM
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New England talks about what it needs to do to keep
New York's pass rush
in check. The Giants recorded 48 sacks during the regular season including two in their Week 9 win in Foxboro. In three postseason games, the G-Men have notched nine sacks. But New England allowed just one sack against Baltimore and Denver – two teams that combined for 89 sacks during the regular season.
As a quarterback, you just understand that you can't sit there and hold the ball all day," said Brady, who is slow-footed but nifty at sliding and stepping up in the pocket. "You'd better find someone and get rid of it, 'cause they're comin.' You don't want to sit back there and sort things out."
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New York Giants
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Super Bowl XLVI Betting Line History Offshore and Las Vegas as of 1/30
01.30.2012 06:08 AM
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Super Bowl XLVI Line History Offshore and Las Vegas as of 1/30
Offshore
Opening Line
Current Line
Opening Total
Current Total
CRIS
New England -3.5
New England -3 (+105)
56
55
Pinnacle
New England -3.5 (+103)
New England -3 (+108)
54
55
Greek
New England -3.5
New England -3 (+105)
56
55
5Dimes
New England -3.5
New England -2.5 (-120)
54
55
Grande
New England -3
New England -3 (+110)
55
54.5
Heritage
New England -3 (-120)
New England -2.5 (-115)
55
55
Jazz
New Elgnad -3
New England -3 (ev)
55.5
55
Las Vegas
Opening Line
Current Line
Opening Total
Current Total
Hilton
New England -3
New England -3 (ev)
53.5
54.5
Wynn
New England -4
New England -3 (-105)
54
55
Luckys
New England -3.5
New England -3 (ev)
56
55
Leroys
New England -3 (-120)
New England -3 (+105)
55.5
55
Coasts
New England -3 (-120)
New England -2.5 (-120)
56
55
Stations
New England -3.5
New England -3 (ev)
56
55
Mirage
New England -3.5
New England -2.5 (-125)
55.5
55
Caesars
New England -4
New England -3 (ev)
55.5
54.5
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LVH Sportsbook posts Super Bowl XLVI and PGA Tour prop bets
01.29.2012 07:51 AM
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LVH oddsmaker Jeff Sherman posted this year's
Super Bowl XLVI/PGA Tour
prop bets.
"For the Super Bowl props involving golfers, we have to use easily gradeable statistics for Sunday's final round," says Sherman, who is also the founder of Las Vegas' GolfOdds.com. "This generally came down to a golfer's fourth round score or number of birdies by a golfer, for example. Then we have to cross reference it to a football prop in a similar statistical range. Once we match those, then we set the price. In regard to the Nick Watney prop, we look over his scoring average at the Phoenix Open and also look at his fourth round scoring averages. For the punters, we just take the number we came up with in the main proposition section to use as our representative number. Finally, we use feel as to what number will create the best two-way action."
WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Phil Mickelson must tee off in the Phoenix Open 4th round on Sunday, February 5, 2012, and complete 18 holes. 4th round must be completed
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Super Bowl XLVI Gambling: Odds to win MVP award
01.27.2012 01:28 PM
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Odds on who will be named Super Bowl XLVI MVP courtesy of Pinnacle. Tom Brady – who already has two under his belt – is the favorite at -105 followed by Eli Manning at +225. Also, a listing of MVP winners dating back to 2000. Quarterbacks have won 24 times including four of the last five.
Super Bowl MVP Winners 2000-11
Year
MVP
Team
Position
2000
Kurt Warner
St. Louis Rams
Quarterback
2001
Ray Lewis
Baltimore Ravens
Linebacker
2002
Tom Brady
New England Patriots
Quarterback
2003
Dexter Jackson
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Safety
2004
Tom Brady
New England Patriots
Quarterback
2005
Deion Branch
New England Patriots
Wide receiver
2006
Hines Ward
Pittsburgh Steelers
Wide receiver
2007
Peyton Manning
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback
2008
Eli Manning
New York Giants
Quarterback
2009
Santonio Holmes
Pittsburgh Steelers
Wide receiver
2010
Drew Brees
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
2011
Aaron Rodgers
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback
Super Bowl XLVI MVP Odds
Player
Odds
 Tom Brady
  -105
 Eli Manning
  +225
 Field (any other player)
  +668
 Victor Cruz
  +873
 Hakeem Nicks
  +1231
 Aaron Hernandez
  +1538
 Wes Welker
  +1640
 Ahmad Bradshaw
  +1743
 BenJarvus Green-Ellis
  +1743
 Deion Branch
  +3688
 Danny Woodhead
  +3688
 Brandon Jacobs
  +4098
 Mario Manningham
  +4098
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Super Bowl XLVI Betting: Princess the camel has your Super Bowl winner
01.27.2012 08:17 AM
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It is time for the Super Bowl which means your No. 1 source for betting information is no longer Sportsmemo but instead, zoo animals. Last year, Jenny the elephant and Cody to coati both picked never-in-doubt winners on the Green Bay Packers. This year, we turn our attention to
Princess the camel
from New Jersey's Popcorn Park Zoo. According to third party monitoring, Princess has nailed five of the last six Super Bowl winners and went 14-6 during the 2011-12 regular and postseason. Her dead nuts winner for Super Bowl XLVI: The New York Giants outright. We are currently in negotiations with Princess' agent about having her join the Sportsmemo Team.
“It started out when a local radio station was looking to have some fun, so they asked Princess who was going to win a particular game each week, and it just took off from there,” Bergmann said. “Now we have guys calling up on Sunday morning wanting to know who Princess has picked that week. One guy even asked if she does lottery numbers.”
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Super Bowl XLVI Gambling: Biggest bets it Super Bowl history
01.27.2012 08:02 AM
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A breakdown of some of the biggest reported bets in
Super Bowl history
.
$2.4 million
In Super Bowl XXIX, someone bet $2.4 million on the San Francisco 49ers to beat the San Diego Chargers (laying 8 to 1 odds to win $300,000) at the Mirage Hotel Sports Book in Las Vegas. Six Steve Young TD passes later, he won the bet.
$3.24 million
In 2002 a well-known Hollywood agent to the stars bet $1 million offshore that the underdog New England Patriots would cover the 14-point spread against the St. Louis Rams, and bet another $400,000 on the Patriots to win outright at 6 to 1 odds. Final Score: New England 20-17.
$1 million
In Super Bowl XXXI, a client of TheGreek.com took the Green Bay Packers for $500,000 to beat New England by more than 13½ points and the Patriots for another $500,000 to lose by fewer than 14½ points. The only way he could win both bets and avoid losing the $50,000 vigorish is if the Packers won by 14 points. Final score: Green Bay 35-21.
$1.65 million
The late legendary oddsmaker Bob Martin took a $1.65
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Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bets: Brady and Manning Over/Under passing yards
01.27.2012 07:57 AM
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Offshore sportsbook CRIS has posted most of its prop bets for Super Bowl XLVI. Two of which are the over/under passing yards for New England's Tom Brady and New York's Eli Manning. Brady is currently priced at 327.5un-140 while Manning is 310.5ov-125. During the regular season meeting, Brady finished 28-of-49 for 342 yards while Manning was 20-of-39 for 250 yards. In terms of regular season passing averages, Brady was at 327.2 ypg and Manning 308.3 ypg.
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Create your own Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet and have it posted at The Orleans
01.26.2012 02:15 PM
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ESPN's Chad Millman just posted his fourth annual
Super Bowl prop contest
. This winner gets his or her prop posted at Las Vegas' Orleans Sportsbook. Last year's winning prop bet was:
"When adding the digits of the final score individually, will the total be over/under 12.5?"
The loyalists who have been reading for the past couple years know the drill: I want you to tweet me or email me your idea for a fantastic Super Bowl prop by Sunday night. Bob Scucci will choose the winner and post it on the board at The Orleans on Tuesday night. I'll announce the winning prop in the blog and on Twitter on Wednesday morning.
Don't forget to sign up for the
Sportsmemo Super Bowl contest
.
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