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NFL Handicapper Free Play: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
01.01.2012 07:50 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Chicago
at
Minnesota
-2 O/U 41
Recommendation: Over
The betting markets simply haven’t caught up with how bad the Minnesota Vikings defense actually is these days, giving us a remarkably low total for a team that simply isn’t able to compete defensively at this late stage of the season. Minnesota has sent virtually every contributor – both starters and backups from their secondary – onto the injured reserve list since the start of the season. And that’s left the Vikings with a historically toothless defense.
The numbers don’t lie. Over a nine game span that ended against Rex Grossman last week, the Vikings allowed opposing QBs to complete 198 of 270 pass attempts (73%) for 2412 yards. During that span, Minnesota has allowed 25 touchdown passes without a single interception! Their opposing QB passer rating was a truly unbelievable 131.3. Just to put that in some perspective, the single worst QB rating
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NFL
Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears
Teddy Covers
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NFL Gambling Preview: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
12.31.2011 05:15 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
A number of playoff scenarios and implications headline NFL Week 17 action. Here is some of the good, bad and ugly for teams in this week’s match-ups. Note that all 17 games are divisional contests.
Kansas City
at
Denver
-3 O/U 37.5
I sensed trouble for Tim Tebow last week in a tough road environment for a young quarterback. And he had all sorts of trouble with four INTs including a pair of pick-sixes in a 40-14 loss at Buffalo. Now Tebow and the Denver defense get one final chance to win a division title and a berth in the postseason. Ironically, former Denver quarterback Kyle Orton can now spoil Denver’s playoff party. Upon the fining of head coach Todd Haley, Orton was promoted to starter and has given the Chiefs passing game promise with a pair of 300 yard passing efforts the past two weeks. Many might be surprised to know that the Chiefs defense has allowed fewer yards per game than the Broncos. But can Kansas City’s run defense (126 ypg, 4.1 ypc)
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NFL
Kansas City Chiefs
Denver Broncos
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NFL Gambling Preview: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
12.31.2011 05:08 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
A number of playoff scenarios and implications headline NFL Week 17 action. Here is some of the good, bad and ugly for teams in this week’s match-ups. Note that all 17 games are divisional contests.
Baltimore
-2 at
Cincinnati
O/U 38.5
Key AFC North showdown as Baltimore can clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed combined with a New England loss. The Ravens will win the division and No. 2 seed with a win or a Steelers loss. But the Bengals are pushing hard for a playoff spot few thought they could achieve this season. Cincinnati makes the playoffs with a win, or a Tennessee win, NY Jets loss and Oakland loss. Both defenses rank top-6 in total yards and yards per play. Baltimore has been inconsistent despite an 11-4 record with struggles on the road including losses at Tennessee, Jacksonville, Seattle and San Diego. Cincinnati (9-6) has struggled against the stronger teams, losing to San Francisco, Houston, Pittsburgh (twice) and Baltimore (0-3 SU/ATS mark against some of
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NFL Gambling Preview: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
12.31.2011 05:03 AM
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A number of playoff scenarios and implications headline NFL Week 17 action. Here is some of the good, bad and ugly for teams in this week’s match-ups. Note that all 17 games are divisional contests.
Dallas
at
New York Giants
-3 O/U 47
Prime time Sunday night tilt with the winner hosting next week’s playoff game and the loser wondering what the heck happened this season. Both teams have burned their betting backers and proven to be untrustworthy too often. They enter 8-7 with the Giants playing a brutally tough schedule the second half of the season. The Giants stole a victory at Dallas three weeks ago, 37-34, rallying from 12 points down with less than six minutes remaining. New York owns the league’s worst rushing offense at 88 ypr and 3.5 ypr. They allow 126 rushing ypg and 4.5 ypr. Can Eli Manning carry the Giants to victory one more time with his outstanding season (4,587 passing yards, 8.8 yppa)? Or will Tony Romo’s bruised hand deliver on
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NFL Gambling Preview: San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams
12.30.2011 01:45 PM
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A number of playoff scenarios and implications headline NFL Week 17 action. Here is some of the good, bad and ugly for teams in this week’s match-ups. Note that all 17 games are divisional contests.
San Francisco
-10.5 at
St. Louis
O/U 35.5
The surprise team of the NFL can clinch the NFC’s No. 2 seed and first round bye with a win. Led by a solid ground game and bend but don’t break defense allowing just 14 ppg, the 49ers appear poised to have a playoff bye and home field game in the divisional round. San Francisco has created and benefitted from a league-best turnover margin, and quarterback Alex Smith has managed the conservative offense effectively with nearly 3,000 yards and a 16/5 TD-to-INT ratio. At 12-3 SU and 11-3-1 ATS, the 49ers have covered the pointspread by over 105 points; best in the NFL. They take on a 2-13 SU/ATS Rams team that did manage to upset the Saints on this field as similar big underdog earlier this season. St. Louis
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NFL Gambling Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
12.30.2011 01:36 PM
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A number of playoff scenarios and implications headline NFL Week 17 action. Here is some of the good, bad and ugly for teams in this week’s match-ups. Note that all 17 games are divisional contests.
Tampa Bay
at
Atlanta
-11 O/U 45.5
The money-burning Bucs tossed the towel weeks ago and in my opinion have been unbackable. They enter 4-11 SU/ATS and on a current run of 0-9 SU, 1-8 ATS with seven of those losses by nine or more points. For the season, Tampa Bay’s results have landed over 150 points away-from-the-pointspread; worst in the NFL. Defensive deficiencies have led to the laughable losing as the Bucs have allowed 27 or more points in six of last seven games and allow nearly 400 ypg and league worst 6.2 yards per play. Atlanta gets No. 5 playoff seed in NFC with a win and Detroit loss. A Lions win will have Atlanta potentially traveling to New Orleans to take on the Saints next week in the Wild Card round. Falcons play with 16-13, Week 3 revenge against the
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Oddsmakers and bettors do guesswork for NFL Week 17
12.29.2011 12:34 PM
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When it comes to Week 17 of the NFL, there typically aren’t but a few games that don't have that coin-flip, preseason-type feel to it. Even oddsmakers admit there
isn't much science
behind some of these lines. Take Green Bay-Detroit for example. The Packers opened 3-point favorites at CRIS but Detroit is now favored by -3.5 (it took the betting market all of 10 minutes to make the "correction"). Green Bay obviously has nothing to play (Aaron Rodgers may sit) while Detroit can
improve its playoff position
with a win. The Lions will be attempting to win at Lambeau Field for the first time since 1991. A victory would pit them against the winner of the New York-Dallas game while a loss would likely send them to New Orleans.
"Is 3.5 the right number on Detroit? You're really not using math to make that number—you're guessing," Rood said.
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NFL Gambling Notes: Kansas City says full effort vs. Denver despite no postseason
12.27.2011 12:54 PM
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Kansas City
at
Denver
-3 O/U 37
Kansas City was bounced from the postseason after last week's overtime loss to Oakland but according to interim head coach Romeo Crennel, the team plans on going
all out
in Sunday's season finale at Denver. For the Broncos, it is a win-and-in situation (or Oakland loss).
"All these players, they want to win. They want to try to win," the interim coach said Monday. "I don't think anybody goes into a game trying to lose. Every player wants to win."
"It's disappointing that we can't play in the postseason," linebacker Tamba Hali said, "(but) we signed up to play 16. We've got to go there and show those guys we can play."
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NFL Handicapping: Playoff scenarios heading into Week 17
12.27.2011 12:43 PM
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Even though there are only three of 12 postseason spots yet to be determined heading into Week 17, there are a slew of
potential scenarios
in terms of home field advantage and matchups.
AFC:
New England (first round bye), Houston, Baltimore and Pittsburgh are all in. If New England beats (or ties) Buffalo OR Baltimore or Pittsburgh lose (or tie), the Patriots would clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Ravens and Steelers still have a shot at the No. 1 seed but not only need to win but also have the Patriots lose. Denver can win the AFC West with a win over Kansas City or an Oakland loss (vs. San Diego). If Denver and Oakland both win, then the Raiders can make the playoffs with Cincinnati and Tennessee losses or Cincinnati loss and New York Jets win. The Bengals are in if they beat Baltimore. The Jets can get in but need to first beat Miami and have the Bengals, Tennessee and Denver/Oakland lose. Same type of crazy scenario for the Titans who must first win at Houston.
NFC:
Green Bay (home-field advantage throughout),
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Handicapper Fairway Jay: Inside the NFL Betting Numbers Week 16
12.27.2011 10:41 AM
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Throughout the NFL season, Fairway Jay provides a look at weekly box scores, stats and how to utilize the numbers and situations for success. For over a decade, Jay has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers and statistical guidelines to better assist him in sports investing and providing point spread winners. Fairway Jay is a recognized leader in NFL handicapping and you can follow his articles and insight in the Sportsmemo daily blog and on Twitter:
@FairwayJay
Week 16 NFL favorites went 10-6 straight up and 6-10 against the spread. I graded the Cowboys as a betting favorite and Seahawks (+2.5) an ATS winner. For the season, betting favorites are 112-120-8 ATS. Last season betting favorites went 123-128-7 ATS (48%). A few close wins or losses could have the overall records slightly different based on closing lines and sportsbook. Nine division games in Week 16 and division underdog went 3-7 SU and 7-3 ATS. I graded the Eagles as an underdog. Home underdogs went 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS, and for the season home underdogs are 27-49 SU and 39-36-1 ATS.
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