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NFL Gambling: Late season home underdogs
12.16.2011 06:21 AM
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Regular Fairway Followers that read my weekly articles and Inside the Numbers blog know I review and recap statistics, rushing results and offensive performances, along with ATS numbers. Included is information on how home underdogs fare. This season, home underdogs are 22-42 SU and 32-31-1 ATS – hardly profit-producing results. But with the arrival of Week 15 through Week 17, we enter the three most profitable weeks of the NFL season for home underdogs.
Over the past 20+ years, home underdogs playing on Sunday have won just over 60% ATS. However, the past two seasons have produced losing results, so we’re either seeing slight line adjustments or the situations are just not as strong. Regardless, Week 15 features an amazing eight home underdogs with six of those teams getting at least +6.5!
I’m fairly certain that following this week’s results, we’re going to be talking about some surprising upsets. After all, do you think the betting public is going to rush to the window to bet on Tampa Bay (0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS run), Kansas City (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS run), Minnesota (2-11 SU including 0-5 SU, 1-3-1 ATS run), Indianapolis (0-13 SU, 2-7 ATS
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NFL Handicapping: Miami's Moore and Long probable; Bowles named interim HC
12.16.2011 06:07 AM
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Injury
update
for the Miami Dolphins as they play host to Buffalo Sunday. Quarterback Matt Moore suffered a mild concussion in last week's loss to the Eagles but practiced yesterday and is currently listed as probable. If Moore is unable to go, JP Losman will start. Offensive tackle Jake Long (back) was injured seven plays into last week's game and did not return. In his absence, the Eagles record eight sacks. Long has started 61 straight games and is probable. Article on the change from head coach Tony Sparano to
interim head coach Todd Bowles
.
“Before today, I haven’t heard him say two words,” Bush said. “Not having coach Sparano around was weird. A lot of guys felt that, because he’s such a good guy, good coach.”
“I want to win these last three games and I want to do it for coach Sparano,” Bush said.
“There are no playoffs to look forward to, but we have three
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Miami Dolphins
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NFL Gambling: Offensive performances and run game success Week 14
12.15.2011 10:56 AM
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Throughout the NFL season, Fairway Jay provides a look at weekly box scores, stats and how to utilize the numbers and situations for success. For over a decade, Jay has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers and statistical guidelines to better assist him in sports investing and providing point spread winners. Fairway Jay is a recognized leader in NFL handicapping and you can follow his articles and insight in the Sportsmemo daily blog and on Twitter:
@FairwayJay
The top Week 14 offensive performances in victory included the Giants (510 yards, 6.6 yards per play), Saints (437, 5.8), Patriots (431, 7.4), Steelers (416, 7.7), Texans (412, 5.4) and Packers (391, 6.5). Poor offensive performances in defeat included the Colts (165, 2.9), Dolphins (204, 3.2), Chiefs (221, 3.8), 49ers (233/3.7), Bears (245, 4.0), Bucs (280, 4.7), Bills (281, 4.8).
Teams that rushed for 150 or more yards went 2-4 SU and 4-1-1 ATS. Teams that rush for at least 150 yards and outrush their opponent are covering the pointspread 79% of the time,
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NFL Handicapping: Titans will start Hasselbeck if healthy
12.14.2011 01:25 PM
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Tennessee
-6.5 at
Indianapolis
O/U 41
Despite a solid performance by rookie Jake Locker last week – outside of the last play of the game – the Tennessee Titans plan on
starting Matt Hasselbeck
(if healthy) against Indianapolis this Sunday. Locker replaced Hasselbeck (calf) early in last week's game against the Saints and finished with 282 yards passing and a touchdown.
“We’re looking at it as if we are in the middle of a playoff run here, and we have to win these three games,” Munchak said. “And if Matt is healthy, then he’ll quarterback us. (But) until you get out there and start moving around and doing some things a quarterback has to do, we’ll know a lot more then.”
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NFL Handicapping: Kansas City Chiefs may give Ricky Stanzi starting nod
12.13.2011 12:44 PM
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Green Bay
-14 at
Kansas City
O/U 45.5
According to reports, Kansas City interim head coach Romeo Crennel may turn to
rookie quarterback Ricky Stanzi
for Sunday's game against Green Bay. Tyler Palko's 59.8 QB Rating and seven interceptions in four games was apparently not cutting it. There is also a chance Kyle Orton could see action. Nothing like going to war against the best team in the league with the dynamic trio of Palko-Stanzi-Orton.
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Las Vegas oddsmakers recap NFL Week 14
12.13.2011 12:27 PM
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Las Vegas oddsmakers discuss last week's
NFL results
. Lucky's had a prop bet on whether or not the Packers would go undefeated. After Sunday's win, they decided to take it down with the last available price -140 on "yes".
"The Green Bay game did all the damage on the day and built a large piece of liability heading into the Giants game," said MGM Resorts sports books director Jay Rood. "When the Falcons came back against the Panthers and the Saints held on to win by 5 over the Titans, that was pretty much the day for us."
"We’d have to make the number too high with only three games to go and it looks too easy now for them," said Vaccaro, "No one is going to stop this team now."
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Handicapper Fairway Jay: Inside the NFL Betting Numbers Week 14
12.13.2011 07:54 AM
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Submitted by
Throughout the NFL season, Fairway Jay provides a look at weekly box scores, stats and how to utilize the numbers and situations for success. For over a decade, Jay has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers and statistical guidelines to better assist him in sports investing and providing point spread winners. Fairway Jay is a recognized leader in NFL handicapping and you can follow his articles and insight in the Sportsmemo daily blog and on Twitter:
@FairwayJay
Week 14 NFL favorites went 11-5 SU and 6-9-1 against the spread (I graded the Broncos a push -3). For the season, betting favorites are 98-102-8 ATS. Last season betting favorites went 123-128-7 ATS (48%). A few close wins or losses could have the overall records slightly different based on closing lines and sportsbook. Six division games in Week 14 and division underdogs went 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS. Home underdogs went 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS, and for the season home underdogs are 22-42 SU and 32-31-1 ATS. Scoring averaged 45.25 ppg in Week 14 and totals went 10-6 O/U and are 102-104-2 O/U
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NFL Betting Alert: St. Louis' Bradford slated to start vs. Seattle
12.12.2011 01:08 PM
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UPDATE
St. Louis
at
Seattle
-9.5 O/U 38
Looks like Sam Bradford is going to give it a go tonight against Seattle. Local reports say
Bradford will start
and Kellen Clemens will serve as back-up. The news gave some bettors enough reason to support the Rams as the line crept down from -10.5/-10 to -9.5. The totals was also bet up from 37 to 38.
Jim Thomas of the Post-Dispatch said on 101 ESPN radio in St. Louis this morning that Bradford was likely to play tonight. He also said that Kellen Clemens would be the backup, meaning if Bradford can't go at the last minute, Clemens would get the start.
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Handicapper Teddy Covers: Week 14 AFC Betting News and Notes
12.12.2011 07:00 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: AFC News and Notes from Week 14.
San Diego
How does a team that has marched down the field and scored on their opening drive in each of the last seven weeks be sitting in last place at the start of the game? Simple – they don't carry any of that early momentum forward – once the scripted plays run out, so does the offense! And there's a character issue here as well – when their opponent punches, the Chargers don't seem to punch back very well. But San Diego finally punched back here after the Bills cut the lead to six following yet another unforced Philip Rivers error, with a TD drive followed by a pick six to retake control of the game. That's a very positive sign for a team that still believes they can sneak into the playoffs. For as rough as Philip Rivers' season has been, he came into the game leading the NFL in
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NFL Handicapping: Rams' Bradford practices, could play vs. Seahawks
12.12.2011 06:04 AM
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St. Louis
at
Seattle
-10 O/U 37
An ESPN Class waiting to happen. Mathematically, the Seahawks (5-7) still have a
shot at the postseason
after winning three of their last four. St. Louis has been mathematically eliminate since October – according to the one article, the Rams had no shot in 2011-12 because of the lockout and the limited amount of time to learn
OC Josh McDaniels' system
. Still no official word on who will be under center tonight for the Rams. AJ Feely is out with a broken thumb and Sam Bradford (ankle) missed most of practice this week. Third-stringer Tom Brandstater and newly acquired veteran Kellen Clemens took most of the snaps. Bradford however
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