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NFL Handicapping Previews: Week 10 Division matchups
11.12.2011 07:33 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Pittsburgh
at
Cincinnati
+4
– Key division game in the AFC North as the Bengals (6-2) look for their sixth straight win and cover. In their way is rival Pittsburgh (6-3), and the Steelers have owned the Bengals on this field going 8-1 SU/ATS most recently. Bengals rookie quarterback Andy Dalton gets his stiffest test of the season vs. the blitzing pressure packages of Pittsburgh, who will play without LB LaMarr Woodley. Cinci’s easy schedule gets much tougher starting Sunday, and against their only quality defense (San Francisco) they managed just 228 yards on this field in a 13-8 defeat. Steelers’ stats on offense and defense look solid, and both teams have top-4 defenses. But a -12 turnover margin has cost Pittsburgh, and surprisingly the Dick LaBeau coached defense has only generated four turnovers in nine games. Likely a lower-scoring game controlled by the defenses and ground games, and any more miscues by the Steelers will result in Cincinnati staying on
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Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts
New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons
New England Patriots
New York Jets
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Handicapper Erin Rynning analyzes NFL Week 10 totals
11.12.2011 07:12 AM
ER Sports
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Submitted by ER Sports
Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning contributed some thoughts and opinions on a couple of NFL totals for Week 10.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals -- UNDER 41.5
This will be an interesting test for the Bengals' young quarterback, Andy Dalton. Of course, he’ll be matched up against the tricky zone blitz schemes of the Steelers, and expect some struggles. Meanwhile, this Bengals defense just continues to get the job done, but also show improvement as well.
Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks -- OVER 41
We’ll bet on Joe Flacco to continue to produce in this trip to Seattle. This Seahawks offense is certainly better than advertised with Sidney Rice a real weapon, the run game perking up last week, now they need to get Zach Miller into the fold at home. Both teams could very well run some no-huddle in this contest.
New England Patriots at New York Jets -- UNDER 47.5
Ground and pound! We’ll ride it again this week. Of course, the Jets are doing their best to transform themselves into the ground game offense with a suffocating defense. Mission accomplished last week,
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Erin Rynning
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NFL Handicapping Previews: Week 10 Interconferences matchups
11.12.2011 07:07 AM
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Submitted by
Buffalo
at
Dallas
-5.5
– This sets up as a high-scoring entertaining game. The underachieving Cowboys (4-4) have posted some impressive offensive numbers as they outgain a tougher schedule 400-335. Rookie running back DeMarco Murray has burst onto the scene and added to the offense’s success. I expect Tony Romo to have a big game even without WR Miles Austin, as the Cowboys speedy receivers and top TE will make plenty of plays against a suspect secondary. The Bills (5-3) defense allows 381 ypg and 6.0 yards per play including 260 passing ypg and 7.7 yards per pass attempt. The Bills offense has been efficient in the red zone and is more balanced with a top-tier running game and breakout season from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Against a Dallas secondary missing CB Jenkins and top tackler LB Lee hurting and questionable, the Bills offense should also enjoy success Sunday. Bills head coach Chan Gailey returns to Dallas where he coached in the late 90’s, and he’s one of the top offensive
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Dallas Cowboys
Buffalo Bills
Houston Texans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Washington Redskins
Miami Dolphins
St. Louis Rams
Cleveland Browns
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Fairway Jay releases his 20* AFC Over/Under Game of the Year
11.12.2011 06:25 AM
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Tomorrow is Week 10 of the NFL season, and we release our
20* AFC O/U Game of the Year
. We’re on a 3-0 Big Drive 20* run in the NFL and 7-3 our last 10 Big Drive NFL plays overall. Regular Fairway Followers and personal clients cashed in on our 20* AFC Game of the Year winner October 23rd when the Houston Texans (+3) destroyed the Tennessee Titans 41-7. This week our setup looks strong with favorable match-ups and a meaningful game for division rivals.
We have a full card highlighted by our top play total as we shoot for our fourth-straight profitable week of NFL winners. While the match-ups look right, so too do the statistical profiles of these teams to play out as projected. I also have a situation that pops for the first time this season on another selection this Sunday. Two years ago, regular Fairway Followers recall that we released our biggest NFL card ever; 10 service selections in Week 2 of the 2009 season. And we went a perfect 10-0! All documented, and in fact, I wrote up every single game on the board that week in the Sportsmemo Blog for all to see and view before the games.
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NFL Handicapping: Lengthy injury report for Oakland Raiders
11.10.2011 11:12 AM
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Oakland
at
San Diego
-7 O/U 47.5
Some
injury concerns
for Oakland heading into tonight's game at San Diego. The Raiders had managed to put out the same starting offensive line for every game but that is likely to change tonight with tackle Khalif Barnes and center Samson Satele questionable. Running back Darren McFadden has
been ruled out
while a host of other players missed practice and are questionable or doubtful.
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Oakland Raiders
San Diego Chargers
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NFL Handicapping: Offensive performances and run game success Week 9
11.09.2011 07:46 AM
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We went 3-1 on our Week 9 Sunday selections but was still a bit disappointed with Baltimore’s last second touchdown to push the game over the total of 42.5 (23-20 final). Still, we were able to identify two outright underdog winners with the Dolphins picking up their first win of the season and the Bengals delivering our top-play Big Drive winner.
The top Week 9 offensive performances in victory included the Saints (463 yards, 7.1 yards per play), Cowboys (442, 7.4), Falcons (432, 6.5), Broncos (412, 6.6), Texans (380, 6.0), Bears (372, 5.6), Packers (368, 6.6) and Dolphins (351, 7.5). Poor offensive performances in defeat included the Browns (172, 3.7), Colts (186, 3.3) and Redskins (303, 4.8).
Teams that rushed for 150 or more yards went 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS. Teams that rush for at least 150 yards and outrush their opponent have covered the pointspread 71% of the time, while teams that rush for 175 yards or more are 28-5 SU and 25-7 ATS (78%). Being able to handicap and project which teams will have a meaningful rushing advantage (say, 30 or more yards) will lead you to more pointspread winners. Teams with the aforementioned advantage cover the
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NFL Handicapping: Arizona's Kolb may miss second straight game
11.08.2011 09:41 AM
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Arizona
at
Philadelphia
N/L
It doesn't look like
Arizona quarterback Kevin Kolb
(turf toe) will be ready to go for this weekend's game at Philadelphia. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt said yesterday that Kolb was day-to-day. Sports Options currently lists him as doubtful. John Skelton filled in for Kolb in last week's win over St. Louis. He finished 20-of-35 for 222 yards and a touchdown. The Rams held advantages in nearly every statistical category but Skelton hit Larry Fitzgerald for a touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter to tie the game 13-13. Patrick Peterson then returned a 99-yard punt for the game winner in overtime.
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NFL Pointspread and Totals Results for Thursday Games 2009-10
11.08.2011 09:08 AM
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This week kicks off the NFL's Thursday schedule with San Diego (-7) playing host to Oakland. Below are the Thursday betting results for the last two seasons. Favorites own an 11-6 ATS advantage while 11 of the 17 games went under the total.
NFL Betting Results for Thursday Games 2009-10
Year
Away
Home
Score
ATS
Total
2010
Baltimore
Atlanta -1
ATL 26, BAL 21
Favorite
Over 43.5
2010
Chicago +2.5
Miami
CHI 16, MIA 0
Underdog
Under 40
2010
Cincinnati
NY Jets -10
NYJ 26, CIN 10
Favorite
Under 43
2010
New Orleans
Dallas +4.5
NO 30, DAL 27
Underdog
Over 48
2010
New England -6
Detroit
NO 45, DET 24
Favorite
Over 50.5
2010
Houston
Philadelphia -8.5
PHI 34, HOU 24
Favorite
Over 51
2010
Indianapolis
Tennessee +3
IND 30, TEN 28
Underdog
Over 44
2010
San Francisco
San Diego -10
SD 34, SF 7
Favorite
Under 44.5
2010
Carolina
Pittsburgh -14
PIT 27, CAR 3
Favorite
Under 37.5
2009
Chicago
San Francisco -3.5
SF 10, CHI 6
Favorite
Under 43
2009
Miami +3.5
Carolina
MIA 24, CAR 17
Underdog
Under 42
2009
Green Bay -11
Detroit
GB 34, DET 12
Favorite
Under 48
2009
Oakland
Dallas -13.5
DAL 24, OAK 7
Favorite
Under 40.5
2009
NY Giants
Denver +4.5
DEN 26, NYG 6
Underdog
Under 43.5
2009
NY Jets -3.5
Buffalo
NYJ 19, BUF 13
Favorite
Under 37
2009
Pittsburgh
Cleveland +10
CLE 13, PIT 6
Underdog
Under 34
2009
Indianapolis -3.5
Jacksonville
IND 35, JAX 31
Favorite
Over 43
Results
Favs 11-6 ATS
6-11 O/U
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NFL Gambling: Lovie Smith says players felt disrespected by pointspread
11.08.2011 08:34 AM
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Following last night's 30-24 win over Philadelphia, Chicago Bears head coach Lovie Smith noted that his team shouldn't have been
8-point underdogs
.
"We're a good football team," Smith said after his team's 30-24 victory. "Just not getting a whole lot of respect.
"When you go on the road ... and you're ... the Chicago Bears shouldn't be eight-point underdogs when we come and play a team. And the guys took notice of that."
"I don't get involved in the spread or what the media says," Cutler said. "We knew they're a good football team. They're well-coached and have really good players."
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NFL Handicapping: Totals now at nearly 50-50 on the season
11.08.2011 07:55 AM
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Remember about a month ago when it seemed like every NFL game was going over the total? Through the first five weeks of the season, “overs” where the hip thing at 48-28 O/U 63%. But since then, scoring has dropped and “overs” are no longer coming in at a furious rate. In fact, if you were betting “unders” the last four weeks, you’d currently be on a 68% run. As you can see by the chart below, oddsmakers, the betting markets, and defenses have made the appropriate adjustments as Week 9’s results put the season tally almost right at .500 (give or take a few games depending on what “numbers” you go by).
NFL Totals Analysis Weeks 1-9
Week
Over/Under Results
Average Game Score
40 points or lower
50 points or higher
1
12-3-1
47.0
1
4
2
11-5
44.1
4
6
3
6-10
40.9
8
3
4
10-6
47.4
4
7
5
9-4
50.0
2
7
6
3-10
40.2
5
1
7
6-7
41.6
5
4
8
4-9
42.0
5
3
9
4-10
40.4
6
2
Results
65-64-1
44.5 ppg
40
37
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