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August

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NFL Week 12 Betting Recap

11.25.2013     11:37 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Excellent betting recap of NFL Week 12 for our friend Stat Intelligence. Check out the links below...

Early Sunday Betting Recap

Late Sunday Betting Recap

Patriots come from behind to beat Broncos




Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Super Bowl Contenders

11.25.2013     07:54 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I took a break from the typical team notes column that I’ve been writing here in the Vegas Wiseguy Report since the start of the NFL season, focusing on NFC Playoff Contenders. I’ll finish that thought process this week, turning my focus towards the AFC.

I had a spirited debate with a fairly well known professional bettor on Sunday Night after the games were finished. We were both having the same problem; trying to figure out somebody – anybody – in the AFC worthy of support down the stretch as a Super Bowl contender. Frankly, there aren’t a whole lot of choices, and our debate primarily consisted of finding fatal flaws in whatever team the other guy brought up.

My power rating numbers have seven of the top ten teams in the NFL residing in the NFC (Seattle, New Orleans, San Francisco, Carolina, Arizona, Dallas and Detroit). An eighth team could join that group after Aaron Rodgers gets healthy for Green Bay.  And all three of those supposedly elite level AFC teams have problems, which is why I included a fourth contender in my discussion below.

Six AFC teams sit at 5-6 right now, tied for the final Wild Card Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Week 12 SuperContest consensus picks seek perfection

11.25.2013     07:37 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Week 12 LVH SuperContest consensus plays can sweep the board if the 49ers (-5.5) cash in tonight against the Redskins on Monday Night Football.

Week 12 Results
1. New England (+2.5) WON
2. Arizona (-2.5) WON
3. Dallas (+2.5) WON
4. Pittsburgh (+2) WON
5. San Francisco (-5.5) PENDING

OVERALL RESULTS
WEEK 1: 0-4-1
WEEK 2: 2-3
WEEK 3: 0-5
Week 4: 2-3
Week 5: 2-3
Week 6: 1-4
Week 7: 1-4
Week 8: 2-3
Week 9: 1-4
Week 10: 4-1
Week 11: 0-4-1
Week 12: 4-0
Total: 19-38-3 ATS




Tags: NFL




NFL Gambling Preview: New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens

11.24.2013     08:16 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New York Jets at Baltimore
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Baltimore -3 O/U 40.5
CRIS Current: Baltimore -3.5 O/U 39.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Baltimore -6
Erin Rynning's Recommendation: Under

The New York Jets fly into Baltimore looking to extend their trend of alternating wins and losses.  While their defense looks up to task it won’t be easy for the offense.  Amazingly the Jets have gone OVER the total in 7 of their 10 games despite ranking 31st in points scored.  The offense led by quarterback Geno Smith has struggled throughout the campaign, while ranking 29th in passing offense.  Making matters much tougher for the offense will be Baltimore’s defense and the weather.  The Ravens defense is still capable, and tough to pass against with a talented secondary and ability to pressure the quarterback.  The weather forecast will make it difficult for both Read more



Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens New York Jets Erin Rynning




NFL Gambing Preview: Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins

11.22.2013     02:02 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Carolina at Miami
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Carolina -3.5 O/U 40
CRIS Current: Carolina -4 O/U 41
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Carolina -3
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Carolina

Have to admit that Miami’s home victory over San Diego last Sunday was a bit surprising considering all of its problems. The largest issue for the Dolphins was the depleted offensive line which took a further hit last week when starting center Mike Pouncey (kidney) was unable to play. With 60% of the starting offensive line out, Miami was able to gain 343 total yards including 104 on the ground at 5.5 per carry. They did allow four sacks and their defense was stung for 435 yards by the Chargers. The win places Miami right at the doorstep of the playoffs at 5-5 just behind the current sixth seed New York Jets who have the same 5-5 mark. Carolina meanwhile, has moved into the fifth spot in the NFC following its controversial Monday night Read more



Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Miami Dolphins Rob Veno




NFL Handicapping: Giants confident strong defense will continue

11.22.2013     07:04 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Don't tell the New York Giants they've benefited from playing a host of backup/bottom-tier quarterbacks during their four-game winning streak. The G-Men went toe-to-tie with the likes of Scott Tolzien, a less than 100% Terrelle Pryor, Matt Barkley (and a little Michael Vick), and Josh Freeman. This week they face Tony Romo who threw for 263 yards on 36-of-49 passing in Week 1's meeting.


“I’d just say the guys we played, their talents were in different areas,” Kiwanuka said. “Maybe we haven’t faced all-pro quarterbacks, but we’ve faced some great running backs.”

“You can look at it however you want,” Thomas said. “But the confidence is flowing. We’re feeling great about ourselves now."



 




Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys New York Giants




NFL Gambling Preview: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

11.21.2013     12:47 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Dallas at New York Giants
Sunday, 1:25 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
New York -3 O/U 45.5
CRIS Current: New York -2.5 O/U 44.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: New York -1.5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Over

Monte Kiffin’s defense has been a complete disaster for Dallas this year.  It’s not much of a surprise.  Here’s what I wrote about Kiffin and the Cowboys defense prior to the start of the season, when I bet Dallas Under 8.5 wins. 

Teams with dysfunctional organizations don’t win much at the NFL level – look no further than the Oakland Raiders or the Jacksonville Jaguars for the past decade to see that rather clearly.  And it’s long past time we started comparing Jerry Jones to Al Davis – guys who had success with their respective franchises earlier in their careers, but who suffered from enormous hubris and consistent losing thereafter. Read more



Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys New York Giants Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling: Pass interference continues to have big impact on outcomes

11.21.2013     11:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good article from the Wall Street Journal on the NFL and pass interference. Defensive PI calls are obviously on the rise due to more passing but the rate of offensive PI calls remains similar to that of past seasons.
 

"It's a big grey area," said McCaffrey. He said the reason a penalty is not called more often is that the move is nearly impossible to decipher. He said it's hard for referees to distinguish receiver-created "picks" from contact initiated by defenders, who are allowed to get physical at the line of scrimmage. He said two things are key for the offense to avoid a penalty: Don't throw a forearm or otherwise make upper-body contact, and after setting a pick, at least pretend to run a route.







Tags: NFL




NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 12

11.20.2013     08:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I was able to put together updated Drive Point averages early this week. The math is so easy when almost everyone’s played exactly 10 games! I also wanted to include strength of schedule data for each team as well, because that can pollute the numbers a smidge. I usually go to Sagarin for those (USA Today). And, his are usually in the neighborhood of Football Outsiders to. Figured I’d grab those too. Then, I can get any feng shui stuff out of my system now so I don’t have to write up a full report.

The numbers you see below are per-game Drive Point averages for every offense and defense. Drive Points are those scored and allowed on Drives of 60 yards or more. All other scoring is excluded (shorter drives, defensive points, special teams points). We’re looking to capture as best as possible each team’s ability to drive the field for points on offense, while preventing opponents from doing so.

In parenthesis, I’ve put the strength of schedule Read more



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: CRIS vs. Cantor Gaming Summer Lines - Week 12

11.19.2013     12:11 PM     Printer Friendly
Back in early May, Cantor Gaming posted lines on every NFL regular season game. We took those lines and stacked them up against the current market numbers at CRIS. It's a good handicapping tool to identify some of the changes in opinion the market has had through 11 weeks of the regular season.

2013 NFL CRIS Lines vs. Cantor Gaming Summer Lines - Week 12
Away
Home
Cantor
CRIS Current
New Orleans
Atlanta
Atlanta -2.5
New Orleans -7.5
Tampa Bay
Detroit
Detroit -3.5
Detroit -9
Jacksonville
Houston
Houston -10
Houston -10
Minnesota
Green Bay
Green Bay -4.5
Green Bay -5
San Diego
Kansas City
Kansas City -1
Kansas City -5
Carolina
Miami
Miami -1.5
Carolina -4
Pittsburgh
Cleveland
Pittsburgh -3
Cleveland -2.5
Chicago
St. Louis
Chicago -1
St. Louis -1
NY Jets
Baltimore
Baltimore -6
Baltimore -3.5
Tennessee
Oakland
Oakland -1
Oakland -1
Indianapolis
Arizona
Arizona pk
Arizona -2.5
Dallas
NY Giants
NY Giants -2.5
NY Giants -2.5
Denver
New England
New England -1.5
Denver -2.5
San Francisco
Washington
San Francisco -1.5
San Francisco -5





Tags: NFL



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