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October

22

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New England Patriots are nearly even money to win Super Bowl XLVII

01.14.2013     06:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Will your team win Super Bowl XLVII? Here are the current odds courtesy of Pinnacle.

New England Patriots
Yes +107
No -120

San Francisco 49ers
Yes +199
No -222

Atlanta Falcons
Yes +590
No -730

Baltimore Ravens
Yes +865
No -1200



Tags: NFL New England Patriots




NFL Handicapping: 49ers bet hard off opening number for NFC Championship

01.14.2013     06:39 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
San Francisco -3.5 at Atlanta O/U 48

The betting markets made it known quickly that at -3 the San Francisco 49ers are the preferred side for Sunday's NFC Championship vs. Atlanta. Offshore, a few shops are holding on to -3 but with as much as -135 juice. Others were forced to bump the game to -3.5. Las Vegas' Mirage was last seen dealing -3.5 (-120).




Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons




NFL Handicapping: Divisional Round Betting Consensus

01.11.2013     06:00 AM     Printer Friendly
Here is a breakdown of three different betting consensus reports for this weekend's NFL Divisional Round. We used Bookmaker, Sports Options, and Odds Shark. Interesting to see Green Bay garner a majority of the betting support for its matchup against San Francisco. The Packers may be more popular but a road underdog in the playoffs is not typically a popular profile with the betting public.

2013 NFL Divisional Round Betting Consensus
Matchup
BM Side
BM Total
SO Side
SO Total
OS Side
OS Total
Baltimore at Denver
DEN 62.2%
UNDER 51.5%
DEN 74%
OVER 55%
DEN 51%
OVER 55.9%
Green Bay at San Fran
GB 57.6%
OVER 68.3%
GB 62%
OVER 72%
GB 56.0%
OVER 58.2%
Seattle at Atlanta
ATL 52.7%
OVER 64.1%
ATL 52%
OVER 56%
ATL 50.7%
OVER 52.3%
Houston at New England
NE 65.8%
OVER 76.2%
NE 69%
OVER 77%
NE 54.5%
OVER 63.5%





Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers San Francisco 49ers




Sportsbook hoping to avoid 49ers vs. Broncos Super Bowl XLVII matchup

01.10.2013     06:30 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
According to LVH Sportsbook Director Jay Kornegay, the two most popular Super Bowl futures bets this season have been on the San Francisco 49ers and Denver Broncos.


“They aren’t favorable results for us,” Kornegay said of the Broncos or 49ers winning the Super Bowl. “But they’re not a big problem either. They don’t come with a lot of liability.”

“We can’t stop it,” Kornegay said incredulously at the time. “The 49ers have by far the most tickets and the Broncos have the second-most. They both continue to get a ton of public support and there’s only a distant third.”





Tags: NFL Denver Broncos San Francisco 49ers




NFL Handicapping: A history of how quarterbacks fare in cold weather

01.09.2013     12:51 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
If you want to take your NFL handicapping to the next level, here is a comprehensive breakdown of quarterbacks in cold weather courtesy of coldhardfootballfacts.com. It looks as if Denver is going to be the only cold weather situation for this weekend – temps in the low 30s with a chance of snow. Peyton Manning is 3-3 SU in cold weather situations (sub-freezing and/or snowing) in the postseason. Foxboro, Mass is slated for a rather balmy 57 degrees for Sunday.



Tags: NFL




NFL Gambling News: Seattle Seahawks forced to replace starting kicker

01.09.2013     11:48 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Seattle at Atlanta -2.5 O/U 46

Not cause for concern but certainly worth noting that Seattle's kicker, Steven Hauschka, was placed on injured reserve. The Seahawks signed Ryan Longwell who has yet to play this season. Longwell played for Minnesota last year but was released after hitting a mediocre 78.6%. Longwell does however have a decent track record from 50 yards and beyond, hitting 10 of his last 11 dating back to 2008-09. That was one of the knocks on Hauschka who hit only 1-of-4 from that distance this season.



Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks Atlanta Falcons




NFL Gambling Trends: Teams that won by 20+ during regular season only 3-7 ATS in playoff rematch

01.08.2013     08:34 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Houston at New England -9 O/U 47.5

A quick database search shows that NFL teams that won by 20 points or more during the regular season were 6-4 SU but only 3-7 ATS against those teams in the postseason (dating back to 2003). Note also that of those 10 games, eight went over the total. New England beat Houston 42-14 at 5.5-point home favorites back in Week 15. Ironically, the last instance where this occurred was two years ago when the Patriots beat the Jets 45-3 but lost in the Divisional Round 28-21 at 9.5-point favorites.



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Houston Texans




Comparing Football Outsiders' and Pinnacle's Conference and Super Bowl XLVII Odds

01.08.2013     06:35 AM     Printer Friendly
The chart below compares the current conference and Super Bowl odds from Football Outsiders and Pinnacle. Most of the odds are similar with Seattle to win the NFL having the largest discrepancy – 30% according to Football Outsiders, 21.4% (+367) according to Pinnacle.

NFL Conference and Super Bowl XLVII Odds
Team
FO Conference
Pinny Conference
FO Super Bowl
Pinny Super Bowl
Denver
41.40%
+107 (48.3%)
24.30%
+266 (27.3%)
New England
40.90%
+144 (40.9%)
23.60%
+321 (23.7%)
Seattle
30.00%
+367 (21.4%)
15.60%
+680 (12.8%)
San Francisco
31.50%
+198 (33.5%)
15.20%
+541 (15.6%)
Green Bay
16.70%
+332 (23.1%)
7.70%
+694 (12.5%)
Atlanta
21.80%
+246 (28.9%)
7.10%
+721 (12.1%)
Baltimore
9.90%
+1052 (8.6%)
3.90%
+1800 (5.2%)
Houston
7.80%
+991 (9.1%)
2.70%
+1800 (5.2%)




Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl XLVII




NFL Gambling: Top seed Atlanta Falcons played league's easiest schedule

01.07.2013     01:12 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Interesting trend spotted by ESPN's John Clayton in regards to No. 1 seeds that play the easiest schedule in the league. Atlanta's SOS based on opponents’' winning percentage was a league-low .422. Note that Sagarin rates the Falcons 26th. Anyway, according to Clayton, four of the last five No. 1 seeds with the lowest strength of schedule reached the Super Bowl.



Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons




NFL Betting Trends: New England Patriots have been money burners in the postseason

01.07.2013     10:38 AM     Printer Friendly
Houston at New England -9 O/U 48

If you've been betting on the New England Patriots over the last few regular seasons, you've made a decent chunk of change. But that success hasn't carried over to the postseason. Dating back the 2007-08 campaign, Belichick and Brady are a combined 4-4 SU and a dismal 1-7 ATS.

New England Patriots Postseason Betting History 2007-present
Year
Opponent
Score
Patriots SU
Patriots ATS
2011
NY Giants +3
NYG 21, NE 17
Loss
Loss
2011
Baltimore +7
NE 23, BAL 20
Win
Loss
2011
Denver +14
NE 45, DEN 10
Win
Win
2010
NY Jets +9.5
NYJ 28, NE 21
Loss
Loss
2009
Baltimore +3.5
BAL 33, NE 14
Loss
Loss
2007
NY Giants +12.5
NYG 17, NE 14
Loss
Loss
2007
San Diego +14
NE 21, SD 12
Win
Loss
2007
Jacksonville +13.5
NE 31, JAX 20
Win
Loss




Tags: NFL New England Patriots Houston Texans



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