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January

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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Preseason NFC Betting News and Notes

06.02.2014     10:40 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I wrote that “the NFL offseason, at least for sports bettors, is essentially over.  Numbers are up, and they’re moving!”

“My first step in assessing the upcoming NFL season begins with a thorough look back at last year.  Every team’s power rating is set, in large part, based on where they finished the previous campaign.  Obviously, adjustments are made for injuries, luck, offseason improvements or declines, coaching changes and the like, but those base power rating numbers factor in what happened in 2013 very heavily.”

Last week, I focused on the 16 teams from the AFC.  In this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report, I’ll pass along a tidbit or two from each of the 16 NFC teams in regards to last year.  My focus is on things that are NOT likely to repeat the same way in 2014.  And this week, I’ll do my absolute best to avoid egregious errors like my ‘San Diego didn’t make the 2013 playoffs’ Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: LVH vs. Pinnacle Season Over/Under Wins

05.28.2014     07:35 AM     Printer Friendly
Two weeks ago we posted LVH's NFL Season Over/Under Wins openers. Below is a chart with those numbers as well as Pinnacle's. NFL wins typically don't move much outside of the juice. There are some half win discrepancies but with half wins worth about 50 cents, again, the differences as of now aren't much. The biggest difference looks to be the Chicago Bears. LVH opened 8ov-140 while Pinny is currently offering 8.5ov-160. On Friday’s Sportsmemo Podcast, handicapper Teddy Covers will provide some early thoughts and opinions on these numbers.

2014 NFL Season Over/Under Wins - LVH vs. Pinnacle
Team
LVH O/U Wins
Pinnacle O/U Wins
2013 Wins
Arizona Cardinals
7.5ov-120
7.5ov-180
10
Atlanta Falcons
8ov-130
8.5
4
Baltimore Ravens
8.5ov-120
8.5ov-139
8
Buffalo Bills
6.5ov-130
6.5ov-161
6
Carolina Panthers
8ov-130
8.5un-139
12
Chicago Bears
8ov-140
8.5ov-160
8
Cincinnati Bengals
9ov-135
9ov-134
11
Cleveland Browns
6.5ov-150
6.5ov-157
4
Dallas Cowboys
8
8un-126
8
Denver Broncos
11ov-140
11.5un-124
13
Detroit Lions
8ov-150
8.5
7
Green Bay Packers
10ov-145
10.5un-114
8
Houston Texans
7.5ov-145
7.5ov-158
2
Indianapolis Colts
9.5un-150
9.5un-126
11
Jacksonville Jaguars
4.5ov-150
4.5ov-175
4
Kansas City Chiefs
8ov-120
8.5un-125
11
Miami Dolphins
8un-130
8un-125
8
Minnesota Vikings
6un-125
6
5
New England Patriots
10.5ov-135
10.5ov-160
12
New Orleans Saints
9.5ov-150
9.5ov-175
11
New York Giants
7.5ov-135
8ov-120
7
New York Jets
7ov-125
7ov-143
8
Oakland Raiders
5un-150
4.5ov-150
4
Philadelphia Eagles
9un-135
9un-125
10
Pittsburgh Steelers
8.5ov-120
8.5ov-134
8
San Diego Chargers
8ov-120
8ov-129
9
San Francisco 49ers
10.5ov-120
10.5ov-145
12
Seattle Seahawks
11ov-120
11ov-129
13
St. Louis Rams
7.5
7.5ov-148
7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7ov-120
7
4
Tennessee Titans
7ov-130
7ov-127
7
Washington Redskins
7.5un-145
7.5un-125
3





Tags: NFL




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Preseason AFC Betting News and Notes

05.26.2014     08:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The LVH Superbook posted their NFL Season Win totals last weekend.  Cantor sportsbooks (CG Technology) have had season win totals posted for months.  Many other books both here in Vegas and offshore have posted season win totals, Week 1 pointspreads and Game of the Year pointspreads.  Most books that haven’t posted NFL numbers yet plan to do so in the near future.  The NFL offseason, at least for sports bettors, is essentially over.  Numbers are up, and they’re moving!

My first step in assessing the upcoming NFL season begins with a thorough look back at last year.  Every team’s power rating is set, in large part, based on where they finished the previous campaign.  Obviously, adjustments are made for injuries, luck, offseason improvements or declines, coaching changes and the like, but those base power rating numbers factor in what happened in 2013 very heavily.

In this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report, I’ll pass along a tidbit or two from each of the 16 AFC teams in regards to last year.  My focus is on things that are NOT likely to repeat the same way in 2014.  I’ll offer similar Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas AFC




NFL Handicapping: Regression Toward the Mean

05.21.2014     02:00 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A little primer for the upcoming NFL season: Stats that aren't likely to be repeated in 2014. We’ll be talking about these as well as season over/under wins next week on the Sportsmemo Podcast.

Nick Foles’ 119 QB rating for the Eagles.

Peyton Manning's 115 QB rating for the Broncos; nearly 20 points higher than his career average.

NY Jets’ defense recovering only one of the 13 fumbles it created.

Baltimore’s 3.1 yards per rush; worst in the NFL by a wide margin.

Cleveland’s 4.8 yards per play on defense; 2nd best in NFL (Seattle was #1)

Houston’s -20 turnover margin.

Kansas City’s +18 turnover margin vs. the easiest schedule in the NFL. This year, KC's schedule is one of the ten toughest.

NY Giants losing more starts to injury than any other team in the league.

Chicago’s 6.2 yards per play allowed defensively; worst in the NFL. Chicago’s 5.3 yards per rush allowed; by far the worst in the NFL.

Washington’s special teams last year were bottom 5 – and that's looking at every special teams ranking for the last 25 Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Oddsmaker says Tampa Bay Buccaneers are sexy pick

05.20.2014     07:36 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
LVH Sportsbook director Jay Kornegay says the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the first "wise guy" team of the year. Last year the Bucs were lined at 7.5 wins but fell well short at 4-12. LVH opened this year's number at 7ov-120.


“The Bucs have improved tremendously,’’ said Jay Kornegay. the Las Vegas Hilton’s sports book director. “In fact, I called the Bucs the first ‘wise guy’ team of the year. They’ve made a lot of improvements with Josh McCown and Lovie Smith has signed plenty of defensive free agents. They are a solid team and have plenty of potential.’’






Tags: NFL Tampa Bay Buccaneers




NFL Handicapping: LVH posts 2014 Season Over/Under Wins

05.19.2014     08:11 AM     Printer Friendly
This past weekend LVH Sportsbook posted season over/under wins on all 32 NFL teams. Below are the opening numbers, last year's opening numbers, and last year's win total. The biggest differences in season o/u numbers compared to last year include: Arizona (5.5 in 2013, 7.5 in 2014), Atlanta (10 to 8), Houston (10 to 7.5), and Philadelphia (7 to 9).

2014 NFL Season Over/Under Wins - LVH
Team
2014 O/U Wins
2013 O/U Wins
2013 Wins
Arizona Cardinals
7.5ov-120
5.5
10
Atlanta Falcons
8ov-130
10
4
Baltimore Ravens
8.5ov-120
8.5
8
Buffalo Bills
6.5ov-130
6.5
6
Carolina Panthers
8ov-130
7
12
Chicago Bears
8ov-140
8.5
8
Cincinnati Bengals
9ov-135
8.5
11
Cleveland Browns
6.5ov-150
6
4
Dallas Cowboys
8
8.5
8
Denver Broncos
11ov-140
11.5
13
Detroit Lions
8ov-150
7.5
7
Green Bay Packers
10ov-145
10
8
Houston Texans
7.5ov-145
10
2
Indianapolis Colts
9.5un-150
8.5
11
Jacksonville Jaguars
4.5ov-150
5
4
Kansas City Chiefs
8ov-120
7
11
Miami Dolphins
8un-130
7.5
8
Minnesota Vikings
6un-125
7.5
5
New England Patriots
10.5ov-135
11.5
12
New Orleans Saints
9.5ov-150
9
11
New York Giants
7.5ov-135
9
7
New York Jets
7ov-125
6.5
8
Oakland Raiders
5un-150
5.5
4
Philadelphia Eagles
9un-135
7
10
Pittsburgh Steelers
8.5ov-120
9
8
San Diego Chargers
8ov-120
7.5
9
San Francisco 49ers
10.5ov-120
11.5
12
Seattle Seahawks
11ov-120
10.5
13
St. Louis Rams
7.5
7.5
7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7ov-120
7.5
4
Tennessee Titans
7ov-130
6.5
7
Washington Redskins
7.5un-145
8
3





Tags: NFL




Churchill Downs says Welker can keep winnings following computer glitch

05.19.2014     07:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
You probably already saw the report of Wes Welker "making it rain" at this year's Kentucky Derby. It was later discovered that Churchill Downs overpaid Welker's entourage by $14K and after originally wanting their money back the track said that it was their own error and Welker can keep the cash.


"An individual believed to be a member of Wes Welker's group on Kentucky Derby day was the beneficiary of an overpayment north of $14,000 on a wager due to a tote malfunction," Churchill Downs spokesman Darren Rogers said in a statement. "In turn, a letter has been sent to that individual in an attempt to resolve the error."

"It is our mistake and we are not worried about the recovery of the money," Rogers said. "We hope they come back to Churchill Downs and wager that $14,000 next year."







Tags: NFL Denver Broncos




Las Vegas' CG Technologies posts lines on NFL games through Week 16

05.19.2014     07:40 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
If you're looking to get down on Week 13's Cleveland-Buffalo matchup now is your chance. Last Friday CG Technologies (Cantor Gaming) posted pointspreads for every NFL game through Week 16. Here's a link to all of the lines.




Tags: NFL




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFL Draft has little impact on betting markets

05.12.2014     07:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The NFL draft is a thing of beauty for those who appreciate hype without substance.   After months of hype – literally, months of it, more hype than we see for any Super Bowl – the first round of the NFL draft attracted 32 million viewers to the coverage on ESPN and the NFL Network. 

That’s a massive 28 percent increase over the 25 million that watched the draft in 2013.  On digital media platforms, the draft drew more than 14 million visits, a 54 percent increase from 2013.  And I’m not convinced the ratings gold were all the result of Johnny Manziel‘s crossover publicity.  Fans and bettors alike seem to think that the draft is important.

The pre-draft hype is a series of smokescreens, with GM’s and personnel directors around the league unwilling to divulge any meaningful information to media types and those who communicate with media types.  We see mock drafts for weeks leading up to the real draft, with the likes of Todd McShay, Mel Kiper, Pete Prisco and Mike Mayock offering their informed predictions. 

And yet despite multiple revisions of those mock drafts – even Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Sportsbooks offer draft prop bets

05.07.2014     08:00 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A number of offshore sportsbooks are offering various prop bets on Thursday's NFL Draft. Below are a few courtesy of BetOnline.

1st Round Picks
Offense +110
Defense -140

AJ McCarron 1st Three Rounds?
Yes -165
No +135

Teddy Bridgewater 1st Round?
Yes +200
No -260

Player Drafted First?
Derek Carr -175
Teddy Bridgewater +145

Will Michael Sam get Drafted?
Yes -140
No +110

Wide Receivers in 1st Round?
Over 5.5 -185
Under 5.5 +155




Tags: NFL



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jan 16, 2017 02:49 AM.