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NFL Betting Trends: Week 1 games go 10-3-1 Over/Under
09.12.2011 07:49 AM
Printer Friendly
The NFL resumed last year's strong trend to the OVER with 10 of the 14 games cashing tickets (10-3-1 O/U). Those 10 games went over by an average of 8.9 points and five went over by double-digits.
Results below bases on CRIS's closing numbers.
NFL Regular Season Week 1 Totals Results
Away
Home
CRIS Total
Score
Result
New Orleans
Green Bay
47.5
GB 42, NO 34
Over
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
37
BAL 35, PIT 7
Over
Detroit
Tampa Bay
43.5
DET 27, TB 20
Over
Atlanta
Chicago
40.5
CHI 30, ATL 12
Over
Buffalo
Kansas City
39.5
BUF 41, KC 7
Over
Indianapolis
Houston
44
HOU 34, IND 7
Under
Philadelphia
St. Louis
44
PHI 31, STL 13
Push
Cincinnati
Cleveland
36.5
CIN 27, CLE 17
Over
Tennessee
Jacksonville
38
JAX 16, TEN 14
Under
NY Giants
Washington
41
WAS 28, NYG 14
Over
Carolina
Arizona
37.5
ARI 28, CAR 21
Over
Seattle
San Francisco
38
SF 33, SEA 17
Over
Minnesota
San Diego
44
SD 24, MIN 17
Under
Dallas
NY Jets
41
NYJ 27, DAL 24
Over
New England
Miami
46
???
???
Oakland
Denver
41
???
???
Tags:
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NFL Pointspread Preview: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
09.12.2011 07:23 AM
Printer Friendly
New England
at
Miami
(4pm PT – ESPN)
CRIS Opening Line:
New England -4 O/U 46
CRIS Current Line:
New England -7 O/U 46
Rob Veno Power Rating:
New England -5
Teddy Covers Power Rating:
New England -6.5
Betting Take:
If there is one thing the betting markets like it's Tom Brady and those amazing New England Patriots. Most of the offshore world currently showing -7 but Vegas residents interested in the underdog should have no trouble finding +7.5. Just as a comparison to some of last year's pointspreads, New England was -5 in Week 1 at Cincinnati, +1 at Miami in Week 4 and a modest -5 at home against Minnesota in Week 8. Miami meanwhile was a home underdog just once (+3 vs. Pittsburgh) last season and
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Tags:
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New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
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NFL Betting Stock Watch: Arizona is fade material in the early going
09.11.2011 07:34 AM
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Sell the
Arizona
Cardinals
– The Cardinals took a pretty big gamble when they obtained quarterback Kevin Kolb. Not only did they trade steady cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and two second round draft choices, but they inked him to a 5-year $63 million deal with $21 million guaranteed. Of course, this was for someone who has only started a handful of games throughout his career and has yet to really prove himself. There’s plenty of pressure on the signal caller to perform and I’m not sold that he can carry this football team. Yes, he’s an upgrade over last year but the Cardinals will still find it difficult to run the football with a below average offensive line and running backs. Without any kind of running game to take pressure off of Kolb, the Cardinals could very well be offensively challenged once again. Meanwhile, on defense there’s some good and bad. Their defensive line should be rock solid
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Arizona Cardinals
Erin Rynning
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NFL Handicapper Free Play: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
09.11.2011 05:09 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Seattle
at
San Francisco
-5.5 O/U 37.5
Recommendation: Under
As we saw quite clearly in Thursday Night’s opener between the Saints and the Packers, teams that enter the season with their offenses firmly in place are quite capable of executing at a high level. But what happens when virtually nothing is in place for either team from a season ago? We’ll find out when the 49ers and Seahawks square off; a game that has the potential to be very, very ugly for football purists and fans alike.
The new kickoff rules ensure that most drives following a score will start from the 20 yard line. And these are two offenses that are simply incapable of driving 80 yards for a touchdown. Seattle’s offensive line is a mess. Their big free agent signing, Robert Gallery, isn’t expected to suit up for the opener. It the
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San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks
Teddy Covers
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NFL Handicapping: Week 1 Betting Trends and Angles
09.11.2011 05:04 AM
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Submitted by
We kicked off the NFL season with an easy over the total winner when the Packers beat the Saints, 42-34, in a shootout. Now the rest of the league kicks off on Sunday and Monday, and thought you might be interested in some trends and angles for opening week NFL action. Many line moves in Week 1 (some big moves) with the betting lines being posted for over a month and bettors able to fire at the lines based on expected line moves, preseason play and injury reports.
Less than two weeks ago, the Texans were a 3-point favorite over the Colts, but with Peyton Manning’ status in question the line zoomed to Houston -8.5/9. Manning then had his second neck surgery this week. Note additional line moves on other games of interest, and know that Week 1 is often the biggest betting week of the NFL season. Expect some line adjustments in Week 2 following surprising and/or poor play by teams (and even more so in college football).
I use a combination of fundamental (matchups), statistical and situational handicapping and will
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NFL Handicapper Podcast: Every Game on the Board 9/9/2011
09.09.2011 12:49 PM
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On Friday's Sportsmemo Radio Show,
Fairway Jay
broke down the first half of Week 1's NFL card (
Podcast link
) including a division rivalry contest between Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
Erin Rynning
took care of the back half of the slate (
Podcast link
) and closed it out with Sunday Night's primetime matchup between Dallas and the New York Jets.
For even more pro football betting analysis, check out our
Radio Show Archive Page
which is loaded with past segments from all of the Sportsmemo Handicappers.
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NFL
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Erin Rynning
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Las Vegas sportsbooks offer wide range of NFL contests
09.09.2011 10:24 AM
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Story from Las Vegas' KVVU Fox News on the
NFL football contests
offered by various local sportsbooks.
"I think there's a contest for anyone at any level in Las Vegas," said Jay Kornegay, director of the Hilton Race & Sports Book. "But a lot of people have fun with it and it's always been a part of the football tradition in this town."
"The best caveat of great giveaway is you spend that 50 bucks, you play the whole 17 weeks, if you don't win a weekly prize or end of season prize, you're gonna get that $50 back," McCormick said. "So it's a no lose guarantee, it's a free shot of 17 weeks of taking home some cash."
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NFL Handicapping: Denver hopes to reverse poor rush defense trend
09.09.2011 08:52 AM
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Oakland
at
Denver
-3 O/U 40.5
Last season, Oakland's run game carved up the Broncos to the tune of 592 yards and 6.3 yards per carry in two meetings. First-year head coach John Fox made a point in practice this week to emphasis how his team
needs to stop the run
in order to win. During the preseason, Denver allowed 90.5 ypg on 3.4 ypc in four games.
"Well, I wouldn't say we had a bad defense, but we didn't play so good against the run last year. Anytime a new coach comes in, you want to have improvement in those bad areas," defensive tackle Kevin Vickerson said.
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Oakland Raiders
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Saints come three feet short of pointspread cover over Packers
09.09.2011 06:15 AM
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Not the worst of beats considering Green Bay covered a majority of the contest but for those holding +4.5 or +5, seeing 27 first downs, 477 total yards, and 6.5 yards per play only to get stuffed when asked to gain a measly three feet is pretty frustrating.
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Gren Bay Packers
New Orleans Saints
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Local Dallas bookie always welcomes bets on the Cowboys
09.08.2011 02:39 PM
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According to a Dallas Observer columnist, betting on the Cowboys is
never a good idea
. It actually isn’t that bad of a concept considering Big D has rarely been much of a "bet on" team in the long term. One local bookie however doesn't mind the team's shortcoming against the spread as clients have long had a tendency to get down on the Boys "just for fun".
"I've got like 10 guys who will do their homework and bet $50 or $75 on a bunch of games over the weekend," says "Tom," a Dallas-based bookie who may or may not cater to a gaggle of area media personalities. "But they'll end it by saying, 'Aw, hell, give me $100 on the Cowboys just for fun.' Lately here they've been keeping me in business."
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