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Sportsbook hoping to avoid 49ers vs. Broncos Super Bowl XLVII matchup
01.10.2013 06:30 AM
Printer Friendly
According to LVH Sportsbook Director Jay Kornegay, the two most popular Super Bowl
futures bets
this season have been on the San Francisco 49ers and Denver Broncos.
“They aren’t favorable results for us,” Kornegay said of the Broncos or 49ers winning the Super Bowl. “But they’re not a big problem either. They don’t come with a lot of liability.”
“We can’t stop it,” Kornegay said incredulously at the time. “The 49ers have by far the most tickets and the Broncos have the second-most. They both continue to get a ton of public support and there’s only a distant third.”
Tags:
NFL
Denver Broncos
San Francisco 49ers
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NFL Handicapping: A history of how quarterbacks fare in cold weather
01.09.2013 12:51 PM
Printer Friendly
If you want to take your NFL handicapping to the next level, here is a comprehensive breakdown of quarterbacks in cold weather courtesy of
coldhardfootballfacts.com
. It looks as if Denver is going to be the only cold weather situation for this weekend – temps in the low 30s with a chance of snow. Peyton Manning is 3-3 SU in cold weather situations (sub-freezing and/or snowing) in the postseason. Foxboro, Mass is slated for a rather balmy 57 degrees for Sunday.
Tags:
NFL
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NFL Gambling News: Seattle Seahawks forced to replace starting kicker
01.09.2013 11:48 AM
Printer Friendly
Seattle
at
Atlanta
-2.5 O/U 46
Not cause for concern but certainly worth noting that Seattle's kicker, Steven Hauschka, was placed on
injured reserve
. The Seahawks signed Ryan Longwell who has yet to play this season. Longwell played for Minnesota last year but was released after hitting a mediocre 78.6%. Longwell does however have a decent track record from 50 yards and beyond, hitting 10 of his last 11 dating back to 2008-09. That was one of the knocks on Hauschka who hit only 1-of-4 from that distance this season.
Tags:
NFL
Seattle Seahawks
Atlanta Falcons
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NFL Gambling Trends: Teams that won by 20+ during regular season only 3-7 ATS in playoff rematch
01.08.2013 08:34 AM
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Houston
at
New England
-9 O/U 47.5
A quick database search shows that NFL teams that won by 20 points or more during the regular season were 6-4 SU but only 3-7 ATS against those teams in the postseason (dating back to 2003). Note also that of those 10 games, eight went over the total. New England beat Houston 42-14 at 5.5-point home favorites back in Week 15. Ironically, the last instance where this occurred was two years ago when the Patriots beat the Jets 45-3 but lost in the Divisional Round 28-21 at 9.5-point favorites.
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NFL
New England Patriots
Houston Texans
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Comparing Football Outsiders' and Pinnacle's Conference and Super Bowl XLVII Odds
01.08.2013 06:35 AM
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The chart below compares the current conference and Super Bowl odds from
Football Outsiders
and Pinnacle. Most of the odds are similar with Seattle to win the NFL having the largest discrepancy – 30% according to Football Outsiders, 21.4% (+367) according to Pinnacle.
NFL Conference and Super Bowl XLVII Odds
Team
FO Conference
Pinny Conference
FO Super Bowl
Pinny Super Bowl
Denver
41.40%
+107 (48.3%)
24.30%
+266 (27.3%)
New England
40.90%
+144 (40.9%)
23.60%
+321 (23.7%)
Seattle
30.00%
+367 (21.4%)
15.60%
+680 (12.8%)
San Francisco
31.50%
+198 (33.5%)
15.20%
+541 (15.6%)
Green Bay
16.70%
+332 (23.1%)
7.70%
+694 (12.5%)
Atlanta
21.80%
+246 (28.9%)
7.10%
+721 (12.1%)
Baltimore
9.90%
+1052 (8.6%)
3.90%
+1800 (5.2%)
Houston
7.80%
+991 (9.1%)
2.70%
+1800 (5.2%)
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NFL
Seattle Seahawks
Super Bowl XLVII
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NFL Gambling: Top seed Atlanta Falcons played league's easiest schedule
01.07.2013 01:12 PM
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Interesting trend spotted by
ESPN's John Clayton
in regards to No. 1 seeds that play the easiest schedule in the league. Atlanta's SOS based on opponents’' winning percentage was a league-low .422. Note that Sagarin rates the Falcons 26th. Anyway, according to Clayton, four of the last five No. 1 seeds with the lowest strength of schedule reached the Super Bowl.
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Atlanta Falcons
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NFL Betting Trends: New England Patriots have been money burners in the postseason
01.07.2013 10:38 AM
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Houston
at
New England
-9 O/U 48
If you've been betting on the New England Patriots over the last few regular seasons, you've made a decent chunk of change. But that success hasn't carried over to the postseason. Dating back the 2007-08 campaign, Belichick and Brady are a combined 4-4 SU and a dismal 1-7 ATS.
New England Patriots Postseason Betting History 2007-present
Year
Opponent
Score
Patriots SU
Patriots ATS
2011
NY Giants +3
NYG 21, NE 17
Loss
Loss
2011
Baltimore +7
NE 23, BAL 20
Win
Loss
2011
Denver +14
NE 45, DEN 10
Win
Win
2010
NY Jets +9.5
NYJ 28, NE 21
Loss
Loss
2009
Baltimore +3.5
BAL 33, NE 14
Loss
Loss
2007
NY Giants +12.5
NYG 17, NE 14
Loss
Loss
2007
San Diego +14
NE 21, SD 12
Win
Loss
2007
Jacksonville +13.5
NE 31, JAX 20
Win
Loss
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NFL
New England Patriots
Houston Texans
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the NFC's Final Four
01.07.2013 08:06 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
With three more NFL playoff weekends still ahead of us, there are eight teams still standing; the top quartile of the league. This week, I’m going to write about all eight of those teams; assessing their respective chances for a trip to the Super Bowl.
Click here for the AFC
. But first, it’s time for a brief history lesson for the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
If you’re looking for active trends for next weekend’s round of the playoffs, you’re not going to find much when it comes to sides. Over the past ten years, the rested team has only gone 17-23 ATS in this round, but we’ve seen some dramatic swings. From 2006-2008, the teams coming off a bye went only 2-10 ATS in this round. In 2009, the teams coming off their bye went 3-1 ATS. In each of the last two years, it’s been a 2-2 ATS split. In other words, there’s not much of a trend.
It’s a similar story with totals. Over the last ten years, there’s no prevailing trend to report, with 21
Read more
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NFL
Green Bay Packers
Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons
Teddy Covers
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the AFC's Final Four
01.07.2013 08:02 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
With three more NFL playoff weekends still ahead of us, there are eight teams still standing; the top quartile of the league. This week, I’m going to write about all eight of those teams; assessing their respective chances for a trip to the Super Bowl. But first, it’s time for a brief history lesson for the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
If you’re looking for active trends for next weekend’s round of the playoffs, you’re not going to find much when it comes to sides. Over the past ten years, the rested team has only gone 17-23 ATS in this round, but we’ve seen some dramatic swings. From 2006-2008, the teams coming off a bye went only 2-10 ATS in this round. In 2009, the teams coming off their bye went 3-1 ATS. In each of the last two years, it’s been a 2-2 ATS split. In other words, there’s not much of a trend.
It’s a similar story with totals. Over the last ten years, there’s no prevailing trend to report, with 21 Unders compared to 19 Overs. But over the last two years, it’s 7-1 to the Over. In the two years before that, it was 6-2 to the Under. In the two years prior to that, Overs and Unders
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NFL
Baltimore Ravens
Houston Texans
Denver Broncos
New England Patriots
Teddy Covers
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NFL Handicapping: Divisional Playoff Betting History 2002-present
01.07.2013 06:38 AM
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Below are the betting results for the NFL Divisional Playoffs dating back to the 2002-03 season. The results are broken down teams that played the previous week in the Wild Card and teams that had a first round bye. Teams that had a bye went 25-15 SU but only 17-23 ATS. Totals went 19-21 O/U.
Saturday Matchups - CRIS current lines
Baltimore at Denver -9 O/U 46
Green Bay at San Francisco -3 (-115) O/U 44.5
Sunday Matchups - CRIS current lines
Seattle at Atlanta -2.5 O/U 45.5
Houston at New England -9.5 (-105) O/U 48
NFL Divisional Playoff Betting History 2002-present
Year
Away (WC)
Home (Bye)
Score
Total
SU
ATS
2011
New Orleans
San Francisco +3.5
SF 36, NO 32
Over
Bye
Bye
2011
Denver
New England -14
NE 45, DEN 10
Over
Bye
Bye
2011
Houston +7.5
Baltimore
BAL 20, HOU 13
Under
Bye
WC
2011
NY Giants +8
Green Bay
NYG 37, GB 20
Over
WC
WC
2010
Baltimore
Pittsburgh -3.5
PIT 31, BAL 24
Over
Bye
Bye
2010
Green Bay +1
Atlanta
GB 48, ATL 21
Over
WC
WC
2010
Seattle
Chicago -10
CHI 35, SEA 24
Over
Bye
Bye
2010
NY Jets +9.5
New England
NYJ 28, NE 21
Over
WC
WC
2009
Arizona
New Orleans -7
NO 45, ARI 14
Over
Bye
Bye
2009
Baltimore
Indianapolis -6.5
IND 20, BAL 3
Under
Bye
Bye
2009
Dallas
Minnesota -2.5
MIN 34, DAL 3
Under
Bye
Bye
2009
NY Jets +7.5
San Diego
NYJ 17, SD 14
Under
WC
WC
2008
Baltimore +3
Tennessee
BAL 13, TEN 10
Under
WC
WC
2008
Arizona +10
Carolina
ARI 33, CAR 13
Under
WC
WC
2008
Philadelphia +4
NY Giants
PHI 23, NYG 11
Under
WC
WC
2008
San Diego
Pittsburgh -6.5
PIT 35, SD 24
Over
Bye
Bye
2007
Seattle
Green Bay -7.5
GB 42, SD 20
Over
Bye
Bye
2007
Jacksonville +13.5
New England
NE 31, JAX 20
Under
Bye
WC
2007
San Diego +10.5
Indianapolis
SD 28, IND 24
Over
WC
WC
2007
NY Giants +7
Dallas
NYG 21, DAL 17
Under
WC
WC
2006
Indianapolis +4
Baltimore
IND 15, BAL 6
Under
WC
WC
2006
Philadelphia +5.5
New Orleans
NO 27, PHI 24
Over
Bye
WC
2006
Seattle +9.5
Chicago
CHI 27, SEA 24
Over
Bye
WC
2006
New England +5
San Diego
NE 24, SD 21
Under
WC
WC
2005
Carolina +2.5
Chicago
CAR 29, CHI 21
Over
WC
WC
2005
Washington
Seattle -9.5
SEA 20, WAS 10
Under
Bye
Bye
2005
Pittsburgh +10
Indianapolis
PIT 21, IND 18
Under
WC
WC
2005
New England
Denver -3
DEN 27, NE 13
Under
Bye
Bye
2004
Indianapolis
New England pike
NE 20, IND 3
Under
Bye
Bye
2004
NY Jets +9.5
Pittsburgh
PIT 20, NYJ 17
Over
Bye
WC
2004
St. Louis
Atlanta -7
ATL 47, STL 17
Over
Bye
Bye
2004
Minnesota
Philadelphia -7.5
PHI 27, MIN 14
Under
Bye
Bye
2003
Carolina +7
St. Louis
CAR 29, STL 23
Over
WC
WC
2003
Green Bay +4.5
Philadelphia
PHI 20, GB 17
Under
Bye
WC
2003
Indianapolis +3
Kansas City
IND 38, KC 31
Over
WC
WC
2003
Tennessee +6.5
New England
NE 17, TEN 14
Under
Bye
WC
2002
Pittsburgh +5
Tennessee
TEN 34, PIT 31
Over
Bye
WC
2002
NY Jets
Oakland -5.5
OAK 30, NYJ 10
Under
Bye
Bye
2002
San Francisco
Tampa Bay -6.5
TB 31, SF 6
Under
Bye
Bye
2002
Atlanta
Philadelphia -7.5
PHI 20, ATL 6
Under
Bye
Bye
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