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NCAAF Betting Tips: BYU could thrive in new role of Independent
06.30.2011 10:58 AM
Alatex Sports
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports
BYU Cougars
2010: 7-6 SU/ 8-5 ATS
Returning Starters: 10 off/5 def
Much has been made about BYU leaving the Mountain West Conference to become an Independent and I believe this inaugural season of flying solo has a chance to be special. The Cougars finished 7-6 in 2010 with a New Mexico Bowl victory over UTEP after opening the season with just one win in its first five games. The young Cougars struggled early with freshman quarterback Jake Heaps getting his feet under him against some tough competition. They however finished strong with five wins in six games, and the only loss coming in a fourth quarter collapse against rival Utah, 17-16.
Head coach Bronco Mendenhall took over the defense last year which yielded immediate improvements. Thirteen of the Cougs’ 16 interceptions came in their last five games and they finished ranked 32nd nationally in pass efficiency defense. They will add Daniel Sorensen to the secondary this year after missing the past two seasons on a church
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Tags:
College Football
BYU Cougars
Bronco Mendenhall
Brent Crow
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NCAAF Betting Tips: High expectations leave Georgia overvalued
06.29.2011 02:07 PM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Georgia Bulldogs
2010: 6-7 SU/5-8 ATS
Returning Starters: 8 off/7 def
The hottest coaching seat in the SEC belongs to Georgia’s Mark Richt after the Bulldogs suffered through tepid campaigns each of the last two years: 14-12 SU, 10-16 ATS. The scary thing for Georgia supporters heading into 2011 is that the Bulldogs improved dramatically in numerous statistical categories last year, yet finished the season with a worse record.
Georgia improved by three points and 20 yards per game offensively from 2009 to 2010. They went from a -10 to a +16 turnover ratio and had dramatically better quarterback play with frosh Aaron Murray taking over for Joe Cox behind center. Their defense also improved three points and ten yards per game. And yet, despite those improvements, Georgia’s record declined by two wins.
In the offseason, Georgia lost three multi-year starters on the offensive line to graduation, and lost a fourth to a potential
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College Football
Georgia Bulldogs
Mark Richt
SEC
Teddy Covers
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NCAAF Betting Tips: Low profile, high profits for Louisville Cardinals
06.29.2011 12:17 PM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Louisville Cardinals
2010: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS
Returning Starters: 3 off/6 def
The best profit producing teams in college football do not necessarily correlate with the teams that finish at the top of the standings. Look no further than last year’s results for a handful of prime example. The top ten ATS squads for the full season included Hawaii, Arkansas, North Carolina State, Arizona State and Northern Illinois. None of those teams won their respective conferences, yet all five squads exceeded market expectations by a wide margin. Other teams that cashed at least two thirds of their tickets in 2010 included San Diego State, Utah, Tulsa, Maryland and Illinois. Those squads had very similar profiles to the very best ATS teams – good seasons, but not headline inducing, conference winning campaigns.
So my thought process for selecting an NCAA “earner” for the upcoming season has me concentrating on teams poised to make a positive jump
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Lousville Cardinals
Charlie Strong
Big East
Teddy Covers
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NCAAF Betting Breakdown: Low expectations provide value for Minnesota
06.29.2011 07:34 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Minnesota Golden Gophers
2010: 3-9 SU/6-6 ATS
Returning Starters: 6 off/8 def
Following a three-win campaign and the firing of Tim Brewster, Minnesota is not expected to do much of anything under first-year head coach Jerry Kill. The Golden Gophers were underdogs in all eight Big Ten games last year – four of which +21 or more. The offense was mediocre and the defense couldn't stop anyone. There were however some positives, most notably outright wins over Iowa and Illinois to close out the year. Those wins obviously mean little to this year’s edition but it shows that Brewster was able to assemble halfway decent talent – a lot of which returns. The other thing to consider is despite being one of the worst BCS Conference schools in the country, Minnesota managed a 6-6 ATS record and more importantly 5-3 ATS in league play. And the beauty is those prices (+14.5, +21, +24, +25, etc.) are going to be the same if not more this year which puts Minnesota in the category of being a
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Minnesota Golden Gophers
Jerry Kill
Big Ten
Andrew Lange
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NCAAF Betting Tips: Virginia poised for success in second year under London
06.28.2011 02:15 PM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
Virginia Cavaliers
2010: 4-8 SU/6-6 ATS
Returning Starters: 8 off/10 def
By all accounts, this Virginia team is leaps and bounds ahead of where it was heading into summer practice sessions last season. Head coach Mike London’s 4-3 defense is now taking hold as the players have bought into not only his schemes but his leadership as well. The defense should show drastic improvement in 2011 with nine upperclassmen starters poised to significantly lower the 5.1 ypc average they allowed in London’s first season. The ability, the understanding of assignments, and improved depth are all present in this unit which bodes well for the Cavs. Aside from what appears to be a tougher run defense, Virginia features a shutdown cornerback in Chase Minnifield (6 INTs, 1st team All-ACC) who this year figures to lift the statistical numbers of his secondary mates. Through position switches and strong recruiting, there is now an increased speed element to this defense which showed up in pass coverage
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Virginia Cavaliers
Mike London
ACC
Rob Veno
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NCAAF Betting Tips: Nevada faces tough road after key losses
06.28.2011 01:50 PM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
Nevada Wolf Pack
2010: 13-1 SU/7-7 ATS
Returning Starters: 5 off/7 def
One surefire "burner" in my opinion this season will be Nevada. There’s absolutely no way they'll be able to replace the all-around production and leadership of quarterback Colin Kaepernick who was a second round draft choice of the San Francisco 49ers this past April. Additional losses of bulldozing running back Vai Taua (combined with Kaepernick to gain 2,932 of the team's 4,091 rushing yards in 2010), tight end Virgil Green, wide receiver Brandon Wimberley (career over after shooting incident last week) and extraordinary pass rusher Dontay Moch hurt tremendously. There’s far too much leadership and production gone from this team to except any type of pointspread success in 2011. They’ll likely remain an above average offensive team but their pistol offense will not post scoring results near the 41.0 ppg they averaged last season.
With a pair of first-year starters at the defensive end
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WAC
Rob Veno
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NCAAF Betting Tips: Purdue shows ATS promise heading into 2011
06.28.2011 12:46 PM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
Purdue Boilermakers
2010: 4-8 SU/5-7 ATS
Returning Starters: 7 off/9 def
I'll call for Purdue to be an "earner" this season. The Boilermakers were 4-8 against the spread last year with a slew of critical injuries to their skill position players. The personnel losses forced them to develop quarterback Rob Henry whose running ability and leadership were surprising and welcomed. With Robert Marve expected to return to full strength, it gives the Boilers a solid tandem. Purdue also welcomes back starting running back Ralph Bolden (ACL) who will operate behind a veteran offensive line (four returnees, 79 combined starts). With the blueprints for a sound running game in place, the play action pass should now become a legitimate weapon. Wide receivers Justin Siller and OJ Ross (each hurt for portions of '10) give Purdue possession and downfield threats respectively with excellent run-after-the-catch ability. Add in returning junior speedster Antavian Edison and this offense has the potential to
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Big Ten
Rob Veno
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NCAAF Handicapping: Miami begins first year under Al Golden
06.28.2011 12:18 PM
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In former head coach Randy Shannon's first three years at Miami, the team improved in practically every facet of the game (see below chart). Scoring was up, defense was poised for great things and the Hurricanes were starting cover games on a more regular basis; a perfect storm for success heading into 2010. But things unfortunately didn’t go according to plan. Quarterback Jacory Harris failed to match 2009’s production and missed time due to injury. The defense couldn't stop anyone with a formidable offense and the end result was a 0-3 SU/ATS tank job to close out the season. Shannon was shown the door and Miami hired Temple head coach Al Golden to get them back on track.
Golden's first task is shoring up the sloppiness in Coral Gables. Under Shannon the Hurricanes were not a fundamentally sound group. During his first three years, Shannon's teams ranked NCAA average in terms of penalty yards per game but in 2010 they plummeted to 114th. And the Hurricanes never finished with a plus turnover margin during
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NCAAF Betting Notes: Wilson's arrival boosts Wisconsin's odds
06.27.2011 01:25 PM
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Former NC State quarterback Russell Wilson announced today that he will be
taking his act to Wisconsin
. Wilson obviously hasn't been named the team's starter yet but should have no trouble beating out Jon Budmayr for the starting gig. As a result of Wilson's arrival, oddsmakers have adjusted their odds on who will win the Leaders Division as well as the Big Ten Championship. The Badgers were originally the second choice behind Penn State to win the Leaders but have since taken over the top betting spot at +125. Wisconsin was +650 to win the Big Ten Championship but has since catapulted to +175, right behind Legends favorite Nebraska (+150).
Interesting to note that out of the Leaders Division contenders, Illinois (+800) has far and away the easiest schedule. Unlike Penn State, Ohio State and Wisconsin, the Illini avoid Nebraska. Ron Zook's crew also has an extremely favorable road slate with Purdue, Indiana,
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Russell Wilson
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NCAAF Handicapping: BYU set to play as Independent
06.27.2011 12:27 PM
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Lost in all of the conference realignments this offseason was BYU's decision to become an Independent. With schedules sometimes made a year or two in advance, the Cougars struggled to fill 12 slots. The end result was
a challenging slate
that features road games at Ole Miss, Texas, Oregon State and TCU as well as home dates against Utah and UCF.
Last year’s rough start (1-4 SU/ATS) created mid-season value and when the schedule got more manageable the Cougars closed on a 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS run. This season, depending on the source, BYU returns as many as 17 starters, including 10 on offense. Quarterback Jake Heaps posted five straight 220+ yard games and a solid 13-2 TD-to-INT ratio to close out 2010. The competition level was considerably weaker (UNLV, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah, and UTEP) but Heaps is primed for success in this is sophomore season.
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