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College Football Handicapper Podcast: Every Game on the Board 9/3/2011
09.02.2011 11:50 AM
Printer Friendly
Friday's Sportsmemo Radio Show covered every game on this weekend's college football card with host Tim Trushel and the Sportsmemo Handicappers. You can listen to Erin Rynning size up Friday night's big matchup between
TCU and Baylor
. Rob Veno analyzes
some of Saturday's matchups
including the much anticipated South Florida at Notre Dame contest – Robbie leans with the Bulls +11. And closing out the show was Teddy Covers who chipped in
his opinions on the added board
.
Click links for handicapper segments.
The
Sportsmemo Radio Show
is the longest running sports betting talk show in Las Vegas (Noon-1 pm PT, Fox Sports 920AM). It is also available via download at sportsmemo.com or any other major Podcast directory.
Tags:
College Football
Tim Trushel
Teddy Covers
Rob Veno
Erin Rynning
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
South Florida Bulls
TCU Horned Frogs
Baylor Bears
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Heavy steam on Baylor; Sportsbooks finally hang Oregon/LSU line
08.31.2011 11:42 AM
Printer Friendly
One of the bigger lines moves of the morning saw TCU pounded down from -6 to -4/-4.5 for its Friday matchup at Baylor. Another big move was Missouri hammered up from -16 to -20.5 against Miami (OH). Nearly all of the 7's on the Idaho/Bowling Green game were taken out with the Vandals now 6-point home chalk. And we are finally starting to see some offshore and Vegas sportsbooks post odds on the much anticipated Oregon/LSU matchup. 5Dimes was one of the few books accepting bets over the last week but CRIS, Pinnacle and Hilton joined the party earlier today. The Ducks reopened as a 4-point favorite.
Tags:
College Football
Oregon Ducks
LSU Tigers
TCU Horned Frogs
Baylor Bears
Bowling Green Falcons
Miami (OH) RedHawks
Missouri Tigers
Idaho Vandals
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NCAA Handicapper Game Preview: TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears
08.31.2011 09:32 AM
Otto Sports
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports
TCU
at
Baylor
(Friday, 5 pm PT – ESPN)
CRIS Opening Line:
TCU -6.5 O/U 57
CRIS Current Line:
TCU -6 O/U 56.5
Rob Veno Power Rating:
TCU -8
Teddy Covers Power Rating:
TCU -7.5
Marty Otto’s Betting Take:
The first proverbial “revenge" game of the season takes place in Waco on Friday night as Baylor is out for blood against highly ranked and highly regarded TCU. Fresh off a perfect 13-0 season and a Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin, much is expected from the Horned Frogs in 2011. This despite the fact that they must replace second round draft choice and four-year starter Andy Dalton, Mr. Everything Jeremy Kerley, top sack master Wayne Daniels, and four offensive linemen. I have no doubt
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Baylor Bears
TCU Horned Frogs
Art Briles
Gary Patterson
Big XII
Mountain West
Marty Otto
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NCAAF Handicapping: Week 1 analysis based on last year's lines
08.08.2011 11:43 AM
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A good way to judge some of the betting market’s initial feelings is to compare the lines from last year's meetings (see chart below). From a generic standpoint, the switch in venue subtracts/adds six points – obviously some home fields are worth more or less than others. Some of the more intriguing differences include
Colorado
who won and covered as a 13.5-point home favorite over
Hawaii
but finds itself a 6-point road underdog (some opening lines were +7, +7.5 and +8) in Honolulu.
TCU
steamrolled
Baylor
in Fort Worth as three touchdown favorites but the betting market doesn’t see as big a gap this edition with the Horned Frogs -6.5/-7 in Waco.
Texas
was a 31-point favorite in Houston (Reliant Stadium) for last year’s meeting against
Rice
. Off a dismal 5-7 campaign, the Longhorns are a more modest 22-point favorite in Austin.
Colorado State
cruised to a 38-14 win as 16-point home chalk against woeful
New Mexico
but the Rams are now just a -4/-4/5 point favorite in Albuquerque.
College Football 2010 vs. 2011 Matchups and Line History
Game #
Away
Home
Last Year Line
Last Year Score
132
UNLV
Wisconsin -35
Wisconsin -20
UW 41 at UNLV 21
134
Mississippi State -27.5
Memphis
Mississippi State -21
MEM 7 at MSU 49
140
North Texas
Florida Intl -14
Florida Intl -5
FIU 34 at NT 10
142
Kentucky -19
Western Kentucky*
Kentucky -24.5
WKU 28 at UK 63
146
TCU -7
Baylor
TCU -21
BAY 10 at TCU 45
154
Miami (OH)
Missouri -16
Missouri -20
MOH 13 at MIZ 51
158
UCLA
Houston -3.5
Houston -3.5
HOU 13 at UCLA 31
162
Minnesota
USC -21
USC -11.5
USC 32 at MIN 21
170
Colorado State -4.5
New Mexico
Colorado State -16
UNM 14 at CSU 38
180
Rice
Texas -22
Texas -31
TEX 34 vs. RICE 17
192
Louisiana Tech
Southern Miss -13.5
Southern Miss -3.5
USM 13 at LT 12
194
Colorado
Hawaii -6
Colorado -13.5
HAW 13 at COL 31
205
UL Lafayette
Oklahoma State -36.5
Oklahoma State -24
OSU 54 at ULL 28
208
Marshall
West Virginia -20.5
West Virginia -12
WVU 24 at MAR 21 OT
212
Miami (FL) -5.5
Maryland
Miami -8.5
MAR 20 at MIA 26
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TCU Horned Frogs
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Teddy Covers reports on Golden Nugget NCAAF openers Part II
06.14.2011 11:31 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Popular “bet on” teams at the Golden Nugget when the first college football lines of the season were posted this past Friday included Tennessee, Georgia, Notre Dame, Northwestern and LSU. All five of those schools took multiple bets in more than one game, driving the line in their direction.
Popular “bet against” teams included Auburn, Michigan, TCU, Mississippi State and Florida. All five of those schools were fade material; either shorter favorites or bigger underdogs now than they were at the opener.
Here’s a brief synopsis of those 10 teams, in an effort to explain the betting attention they received:
Tennessee
came on strong down the stretch last year winning its last four regular season games to earn a bowl bid in a season that could have been a complete disaster. After last year’s growing pains, the Vols finally have the same head coach returning for the first time in four years. Early bettors respect that continuity and were willing to
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TCU Horned Frogs
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NCAA Football Handicapping: Schools hit hardest by NFL Draft
05.23.2011 10:17 AM
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Quick breakdown of those schools hit hardest by the 2011 NFL Draft. USC and North Carolina top the list with nine apiece. Here is USC’s final
spring depth chart
. North Carolina is not out of the woods with its
long list of violations
. Four of UNC’s nine selections came in the first two rounds. TCU didn’t have a player drafted in 2008 but has had 13 the last three years. Ohio State had five players drafted and will be
without four starters
and a back-up the first five games of the season.
Players selected in 2011 NFL Draft
USC - 9
North Carolina - 9
Miami (FL) - 8
Nebraska - 7
LSU - 6
Iowa - 6
Georgia
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Rose Bowl Betting Preview: Wisconsin vs. TCU
12.13.2010 02:26 PM
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Rose Bowl @ Pasadena, Calif.
Wisconsin vs. TCU -2.5 O/U 58.5
January 1, 2 pm PT – ESPN
Overview:
Both teams average an identical 43.3 ppg and the overall numbers are similar on both sides of the ball. Despite the difference in class between the Big Ten and Mountain West, Sagarin ratings say Wisconsin played the 71st toughest schedule while TCU is slightly behind at 80th. It will be interesting to see how Wisconsin reacts if punched in the mouth early. The Badgers will have gone over two months since last playing a competitive football game.
Rob Veno’s Take:
(Power Rating: TCU -2) My belief here is that TCU will have to score with Wisconsin to win this game and I just don’t think that is possible. Wisconsin’s road-grading offensive front will take its toll on the quick but small TCU defenders subsequently opening up the Badgers’ ultra efficient play action passing game. Head coach Gary
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Media still baffled by TCU vs. Wisconsin pointspread
12.10.2010 06:54 AM
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Wisconsin vs. TCU -2.5 O/U 58.5
Always nice to see a mainstream newspaper provide a fairly accurate depiction of what sports betting is all about. A lot of folks (i.e. media and fans) are simply flabbergasted that TCU is favored over Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl.
This article from the Fort Worth Star-Telegram
even sites college football "expert" Kirk Herbstreit as saying he was "shocked" to hear the Badgers were an underdog. As for the opinion that counts, offshore oddsmakers opened TCU as a 1.5-point favorite, which was quickly bet up to -3. Not unlike a lot of bowl games, there was some market resistance as TCU -2.5 is currently the prevailing number.
In Vegas, there is no football emotion involved, no prejudice, no rah-rah B.S.
It's simply a cold-hearted process to decide which team is better than another team for the purpose of handicapping
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Chris Fowler likes underdog Wisconsin Badgers
12.07.2010 08:11 AM
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TCU -2.5 vs. Wisconsin O/U 56.5
ESPN's Chris Fowler hinted that he
didn't agree with the betting market's stance
on TCU being favored over Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl.
"I think there will be a lot of people, (including) my colleagues who will go the other way on that one and like the underdog," Fowler said with a laugh before turning serious. "It shows (TCU) has respect."
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Sportsbooks post early odds on BCS bowl games
12.06.2010 06:28 AM
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Sportsbooks have posted lines for all six BCS bowl games. We've seen some early movement off of the openers, including Stanford's three-point move over Virginia Tech. TCU took on early money as the betting market pushed the Horned Frogs to a three-point favorite over Wisconsin. Not a lot of respect from the oddsmakers or bettors as Oklahoma opened -16.5 over UConn only to see its number climb to -17.5. SEC vs. Big Ten and Big Ten was the team receiving most of the betting action with Ohio State now a three-point favorite over Arkansas. In anticipation of an Oregon vs. Auburn title game, some predicted less than a month ago that the Ducks would be the betting favorite. But Oregon looked a little more human down the stretch while Auburn defeated Alabama and South Carolina. As a result, War Eagle opened as the field goal favorite. The SEC is a perfect 6-0 all-time in the BCS National Championship.
BCS Bowl Games Early Line Moves
Bowl
Matchup
CRIS Opener
CRIS Current
Rose
TCU vs. Wisconsin
TCU -1.5
TCU -3
Fiesta
UConn vs. Oklahoma
Oklahoma -16.5
Oklahoma -17.5
Orange
Virginia Tech vs. Stanford
Stanford pk
Stanford -3
Sugar
Arkansas vs. Ohio State
Ohio State -2.5
Ohio State -3 (-115)
BCS Title
Oregon vs. Auburn
Auburn -3
Auburn -3 (-105)
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Stanford Cardinal
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