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November

28

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College Football Handicapping: Estimated Power Ratings as of 9/5/13

09.05.2013     06:15 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Having given sharps time to take their shots at this week’s college football openers, I’ve updated last week’s Estimated Market Power Ratings based on the pointspreads we’re seeing midday Wednesday. Note that I use a standard 3 points for home field advantage. The numbers you see below basically represent “at-the-moment” pointspreads with that 3-point adjustment.

There are some big jumps forward and backward from last week. That’s because I surely mis-guessed in many places…and because several teams had extreme results that influenced perceptions of how they’d play out of the gate. Going through game-by-game…there were still a few head scratchers for me. I’m trying to put the couplets in the right spots on a big scale. We’ll have a better shot of representing the market’s view about a month from now.

An example: Wyoming is -28 right now over Idaho…which means they should be 25 points Read more


Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




College Football ATS Analysis: Golden Nugget's GOY vs. CRIS - Week 2

09.05.2013     06:08 AM     Printer Friendly
Checking in with the college football betting markets as we compare the Golden Nugget's Games of the Year from early June vs. CRIS's current numbers.

2013 College Football Lines Golden Nugget GOY vs. CRIS - Week 2
Away
Home
Golden Nugget
CRIS Current
Washington State
USC
USC -21
USC -16
South Carolina
Georgia
Georgia -4
Georgia -3.5
Syracuse
Northwestern
Northwestern -13
Northwestern -15.5
South Florida
Michigan State
Michigan State -16
Michigan State -23.5
Notre Dame
Michigan
Michigan pk
Michigan -4
San Diego State
Ohio State
Ohio State -21.5
Ohio State -27.5
West Virginia
Oklahoma
Oklahoma -16
Oklahoma -21
Texas
BYU
Texas -7.5
Texas -7
Oregon
Virginia
Oregon -21
Oregon -22
Florida
Miami (FL)
Florida -2.5
Florida -3
Arizona
UNLV
Arizona -17
Arizona -10.5




Tags: College Football




College Football Totals Betting: Applying what we saw in Week 1

09.04.2013     02:07 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The four to six day handicapping bridge from college football's Week 1 to Week 2’s bets and recommendations has often been labeled the trickiest one of all. Throughout late spring and then the summer, extensive hours were put in by many on each side of the counter to formulate opinions on how the 126 FBS teams will fare this season and plays were made for last week’s games accordingly. Now, with a full week of data it’s time to assess the accuracy of initial projections and react to this week’s matchups. For myself, raw power ratings are adjusted Sunday morning and projected lines calculated anywhere from 3-8 hours before the openers become available. I’ve learned and constantly stated for the 21 years I’ve been in this business that each situation is individual and there is no blanket statement or theory that applies to how heavily you should react. Less can be best and more may be necessary while no reaction at all may be correct too. For this season’s opening article, let’s take a look at how to approach Week 2 from a totals perspective.

Last week we saw a couple of important elements that led to instances of huge second Read more


Tags: College Football USC Trojans Washington State Cougars PAC-12 Rob Veno




College Football Betting Preview: Oregon Ducks at Virginia Cavaliers

09.04.2013     12:04 PM     Brian Edwards     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Brian Edwards

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oregon at Virginia
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - ESPN2
CRIS Opener:
Oregon -22.5 O/U 59
CRIS Current: Oregon -21.5 O/U 61
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Oregon -22
Brian Edwards' Recommendation: Oregon

Oregon ventured to the Eastern Time Zone back in Week 2 of the 2010 campaign. On that night, the Ducks trounced Tennessee 48-13 as an 11.5-point road favorite. They will be hoping for a similar result Saturday at Virginia in the first meeting between the two schools.

As of Wednesday, most books had Oregon installed as a 22-point favorite with a total of 60.5 or 61. Gamblers can take the Cavaliers to win outright for a +900 return (risk $100 to win $900).

Oregon has covered the spread in eight consecutive games as a road favorite. The Ducks opened 2013 with a 66-3 win over Nicholls State last Saturday as 59-point home chalk. The 69 combined points slipped over the 66.5-point total thanks to a Read more


Tags: College Football Oregon Ducks Virginia Cavaliers Brian Edwards




College Football Betting: BYU shakes up offensive line

09.04.2013     07:30 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Texas -7 at BYU O/U 55

After a disappointing showing against Virginia, BYU is making some changes along its offensive line. According to the Salt Lake Tribune, the Cougars' only full-time returning starter has been benched. BYU ran for 189 yards (3.5 ypc) and allowed three sacks in the loss to UVA.


"Well, we are going to do some shuffling of the line, and we are going to see how other guys respond," offensive coordinator Robert Anae told reporters after practice on Tuesday night. "We've got four guys right now who look to be holding their spots."

"As of Tuesday, we've got four starters. So we are still looking for that fifth one," Anae said. "That still remains to be earned."






Tags: College Football BYU Cougars Texas Longhorns Big XII




College Football Handicapping: Early line moves for Week 2

09.04.2013     06:15 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Taking a quick look at some of the more significant lines moves for Week 2.

Wake Forest at Boston College
CRIS Opener: Boston College pk
CRIS Current: Boston College -3
Comment: Both teams won but failed to cover vs. FCS foes.

West Virginia at Oklahoma
CRIS Opener: Oklahoma -17.5
CRIS Current: Oklahoma -21
Comment:  Bettors obviously not impressed by WVU's 24-17 win over William & Mary. Oklahoma meanwhile shutout Sun Belt co-favorite UL-Monroe.

South Alabama at Tulane
CRIS Opener: Tulane -3.5
CRIS Current: Tulane -6.5
Comment: USA got beat at home against Samford – and it was hardly an upset as Samford closed -9.5. Tulane took care of Jackson State.

Texas at BYU
CRIS Opener: Texas -4.5
CRIS Current: Texas -7 (-7.5 at other sportsbooks)
Comment: BYU's top receiver Cody Hoffman remains questionable. Quarterback Taysom Hill was 13-of-40 in last week's loss to Virginia. Texas put up 715 yards and 56 points on New Mexico State.

UL-Lafayette at Kansas State
CRIS Opener: Kansas Read more


Tags: College Football




College Football Gambling: Northwestern suffers multiple key injuries

09.03.2013     12:22 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Syracuse at Northwestern

Northwestern hammered by a rash of injuries following Week 1's win at Cal. The Wildcats lost starting cornerback Daniel Jones to a torn ACL. Running back Venric Mark, who led the team in rushing last season, is dealing with an ankle injury. And starting quarterback Kain Colter is doubtful with a shoulder injury. No line on the game offshore. Las Vegas' Wynn opened Northwestern -9.5 with the current number -10.5 according to Sports Options.



Tags: College Football Northwestern Wildcats Big Ten Syracuse Orange ACC




College Football Betting Preview: Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan Wolverines

09.03.2013     12:15 PM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Notre Dame at Michigan
Saturday, 5 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener:
Michigan -4 O/U 51
CRIS Current: Michigan -3.5 O/U 52
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Michigan -5
Marty Otto's Recommendation: See analysis

Notre Dame and Michigan meet in the Big House on Saturday night with ESPN providing the coverage. This is a rare night game in Ann Arbor and you can be certain a rabid crowd of well over 100,000 fans will be yelling as loud as they can. There has been a little media battle going on about the importance, or significance, of this rivalry; Brian Kelly doesn’t believe it’s that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things that Notre Dame will not be renewing the series for the foreseeable future. Brady Hoke thinks it is a big deal to Michigan and called ND “chickens” for ending the head-to-head plans. It clearly adds just a little more spice to this matchup. Read more


Tags: College Football Notre Dame Fighting Irish Michigan Wolverines Big Ten Otto Sports




College Football Betting Recap: Winston wows in Florida State's blowout win over Pitt

09.03.2013     07:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

A lot of people knew that before tonight’s Florida State/Pittsburgh game that was nationally televised by ESPN. Now, everybody knows.

If you didn’t watch the game, and are reading this late Monday or during the day Tuesday…you’re probably thinking all the hype you’ve been reading and hearing about redshirt freshman quarterback Jameis Winston’s passing performance is a bit overwrought. It may not be. He passed the eye test right away…getting zip on his passes and throwing accurately downfield. This is something that really jumps out at people who watched a zillion college football games the past weekend. Zip and accuracy on passes more than 15 yards downfield comes and goes at this level (if the zip is even there in the first place).

The eye test was followed by the stat test:

25-27-0-356 with 4 TD passes

Goodness. It was both electric and methodical. He just marched the Seminoles down the field by hitting receivers between Read more


Tags: College Football Florida State Seminoles Pittsburgh Panthers ACC Stat Intelligence




College Football Handicapping: Week 1 results for first-year head coaches

09.03.2013     07:08 AM     Printer Friendly
Quick look at home first-year head coach fared in Week 1. All told, first-year coaches were 15-15 SU and 14-16 ATS. There were three instances where first-year coaches faced one another. The results were very similar to that of last year (13-12 SU, 12-12 ATS vs. FCS/FBS – one game was not lined). If we eliminate games against FCS competition, first-year head coaches vs. FBS schools went 9-13 SU and 11-11 ATS this past weekend.

2013 First-Year Head Coaches Week 1 Results
Team
New Coach
Week 1 Opponent
SU
ATS
Arkansas
Brett Bielema
vs. UL-Lafayette
Win
Win
Arkansas State
Bryan Harsin
vs. Ark-Pine Bluff
Win
Win
Auburn
Gus Malzahn
vs. Washington State
Win
Loss
Boston College
Steve Addazio
vs. Villanova
Win
Loss
California
Sonny Dykes
vs. Northwestern
Loss
Loss
Cincinnati
Tommy Tuberville
vs. Purdue*
Win
Win
Colorado
Mike MacIntyre
vs. Colorado State
Win
Win
FIU
Ron Turner
vs. Maryland
Loss
Loss
Georgia State
Trent Miles
vs. Samford
Loss
Loss
Idaho
Paul Petrino
at North Texas
Loss
Loss
Kent State
Paul Haynes
vs. Liberty
Win
Loss
Kentucky
Mark Stoops
vs. Western Kentucky*
Loss
Loss
Louisiana Tech
Skip Holtz
at NC State*
Loss
Loss
N.C. State
Dave Doeren
vs. La. Tech*
Win
Win
Nevada
Brian Polian
at UCLA
Loss
Loss
New Mexico State
Doug Martin
at Texas
Loss
Loss
Northern Illinois
Rod Carey
at Iowa
Win
Win
Oregon
Mark Helfrich
vs. Nicholls State
Win
Win
Purdue
Darrell Hazell
at Cincinnati*
Loss
Loss
San Jose State
Ron Caragher
vs. Sacramento St.
Win
Win
Southern Miss
Todd Monken
vs. Texas State
Loss
Loss
Syracuse
Scott Shafer
vs. Penn State
Loss
Win
Temple
Matt Rhule
at Notre Dame
Loss
Win
Tennessee
Butch Jones
vs. Austin Peay
Win
Loss
Texas Tech
Kliff Kingsbury
at SMU
Win
Win
USF
Willie Taggart
vs. McNeese State
Loss
Loss
Utah State
Matt Wells
at Utah
Loss
Loss
UTEP
Sean Kugler
Bye Week
N/A
N/A
Western Kentucky
Bobby Petrino
vs. Kentucky*
Win
Win
Western Michigan
P.J. Fleck
at Michigan State
Loss
Win
Wisconsin
Gary Andersen
vs. UMass
Win
Win
Results
 
 
15-15
14-16




Tags: College Football



61

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November

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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Nov 28, 2014 01:31 PM.