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NCAA Football Handicapping: Cal's Dykes goes with true frosh quarterback

08.22.2013     01:49 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Considering the schedule (daunting) and the state of the program (not good), it shouldn't come as a shock to see Cal first-year head coach Sonny Dykes with an eye on the future and tab true freshman Jared Goff as the team’s Week 1 starter against Northwestern. While at Louisiana Tech, Dykes turned Colby Cameron into a great quarterback – though it didn't happen overnight. Cameron struggled as sophomore, took over as starter midway through his junior season, and of course set the world on fire with 4,100 yards and a 31-5 TD/INT ratio last year.

"We have had a fiercely-contested competition for our starting quarterback position," Dykes said in a statement. "It's important to name a starter and give them the reps they need to be prepared to play. We feel that right now Jared Goff gives us the best chance to be successful as a team, but we are very fortunate to have three outstanding quarterbacks we feel we can be successful with."

Tags: College Football California Golden Bears PAC-12

College Football Handicapping: The impact returning starters has on the betting markets

08.22.2013     06:57 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Yesterday I talked about Phil Steele's impact on the betting markets. Today I'll discuss another factor that influences early season games and that's returning starters. Who is coming back is probably to first thing bettors look at when evaluating a team during the summer. And based on my experience, teams with "a lot" of returning starters get a lot more love in the betting markets than those with only "a few” returning starters. Before I begin note that there are many different definitions of “returning starters” but for the sake of argument, we'll use Phil Steele as our reference point since his publication is such a common fixture among the betting community. Keep in a mind, A LOT can happen over the course of three months and I've seen multiple examples where returning starter numbers in June were a lot different than in September.

I used the very arbitrary numbers of 17 or more and 10 or less when breaking down our returning starter "extremes." That gives us 31 Read more

Tags: College Football Andrew Lange

College Football Betting: Kentucky opts for two quarterbacks in Week 1

08.22.2013     06:44 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Oh boy. Kentucky has decided it will play two quarterbacks in its opener against Western Kentucky. Neither Maxwell Smith nor Jalen Whitlow was able to win the gig during fall camp. And first-year head coach Mark Stoops even said that third-stringer Patrick Towels could play at some point this season if Smith and Whitlow don't pan out. Just to recap, Kentucky is obviously under a new coaching regime, one that wants to completely change its offensive philosophy and play up-tempo. They plan on doing this behind an inexperienced offensive line and a two quarterback system which historically has about a 13.5% success rate. It would be a lot different if the Wildcats played an FCS cupcake in Week 1 but instead, they face a Western Kentucky squad (in Nashville) that won last Read more

Tags: College Football Kentucky Wildcats SEC Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Sun Belt

College Football Betting: Syracuse uses gambling as an excuse to have closed practices

08.21.2013     11:42 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Congratulations to Syracuse's football team for winning the Biggest Crock of Shit of the Day award.

"He wanted to close it down because of the reporting on injuries," said Sue Edson, the Assistant Athletics Director/Communications for football. "We have a responsibility to make sure any injury that's out there does not influence betting lines."

Tags: College Football Syracuse Orange ACC

College Football Handicapping: Phil Steele's impact on the betting markets

08.21.2013     06:52 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
When it comes to college football, there are a lot of unknowns heading into a season. Most bettors know that Alabama will be good and Florida Atlantic will be bad but in between there are a lot of teams that will be far better or worse than the previous year. To pinpoint those teams we use preseason publications to give us a guideline – returning starters, two-deep, new coaches, last season's stats, etc. And no publication is better at providing that information than Phil Steele. But because Steele's work is bettor friendly, it also has a tendency to impact the betting markets. Steele's reasoning for teams going "up" or "down" is hardly groundbreaking but it’s more often than not sound logic. Bettors read Steele, and if they agree with his assessment of a team, they bet on said team be it Week 1, season over/under wins, or odds to win a division and/or conference.

Out of curiosity, we took the 17 teams that made Steele's Most Improved List and checked out the line moves on their Week 1 games (see chart below). Nearly half of them play FCS opponents which as of today aren't lined. For those who do have lined games, we see that Steele's top Read more

Tags: College Football Andrew Lange

College Football Betting: Injuries starting to pile up for Virginia Tech

08.20.2013     02:24 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Virginia Tech vs. Alabama -18.5 O/U 45.5

On today's Sportsmemo Podcast (you can listen here) handicapper Brian Edwards mentioned some of the key injuries for Virginia Tech heading into Week 1's showdown in the Georgia Dome against Alabama. Here's a link with all of the details on the Hokies' injuries.

Tags: College Football Virginia Tech Hokies ACC Alabama Crimson Tide SEC

NCAA Football Handicapping: Auburn Tigers banged up heading into Week 1

08.20.2013     07:11 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Washington State at Auburn -15.5 O/U 59.5

A bunch of key injuries for the Auburn Tigers as they prepare for their Week 1 home game against Washington State.

“We stalled out and hit neutral about a week ago with the loss of so many players that are in the starting picture,” Johnson said. “At one point, we had our best pass rusher, our returning tackle leader, our third-best cornerback out…in fact, we practiced one day without three of our four best corners.”

Tags: College Football Auburn Tigers SEC Washington State Cougars PAC-12

College Football Line Moves: Bettors pound Western Kentucky-Kentucky OVER

08.20.2013     07:04 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Yesterday CRIS posted totals on all of Week 1's college football games. Not a lot of movement in the betting markets save for a few half-point and full point moves. The one exception was the Kentucky-Western Kentucky game. CRIS opened the game 54.5 but a handful of bets later it shot up to 59.5. It has since settled in at 58.5. There are new coaching staffs on both sides, most notably Kentucky who brought in offensive coordinator Neal Brown. Last year's meeting landed 48 in regulation (WKU won 32-31 in OT) with a closing total of 49.5.

Tags: College Football Kentucky Wildcats SEC Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Sun Belt

College Football Gambling: Texas Tech may start frosh QB vs. SMU

08.20.2013     06:54 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Texas Tech -5.5 at SMU O/U 58.5

With projected starting quarterback Michael Brewer (back) unlikely to start Week 1's game against SMU, the Red Raiders may have to go with one of two freshmen signal callers. Here's the lowdown on both QBs.

“Whoever it is, you know we’re going to have a freshman at quarterback,” running back DeAndre Washington said, “so we’re looking forward to taking some pressure off of him. Being able to help him out with his blocking, running, just anything we can to make the transition easier for him.

“I feel like we’ll be good to go with either guy.” 

Tags: College Football Texas Tech Red Raiders Big XII SMU Mustangs

College Football Gambling: Auburn tabs JC transfer Marshall starting QB

08.19.2013     12:57 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Junior college transfer Nick Marshall was named Auburn's starting quarterback by first-year head coach Gus Malzahn.

“We’re always going to play to our quarterback’s strengths, but he’s very unique,” Malzahn said. “There’s no doubt, he’s a phenomenal athlete. One of the better athletes I’ve probably gotten a chance to coach at the quarterback position. He’s got a very strong arm, and he’s very calm. The day that we went live, they were flying around him and I was right back there with him and he seemed like it was 7-on-7 mode.”

“We do understand what Nick can do. We think he’s got a lot more upside, that he’ll get better and more comfortable with everything. He’s got some ability to make plays when things break down. And in this league things break down from time to time.”

Tags: College Football Auburn Tigers SEC


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