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NBA Gambling Alert: Miami Heat now favored for Game 4
06.13.2013 11:09 AM
Printer Friendly
Miami
-1 at
San Antonio
O/U 186.5
We mentioned yesterday about Miami's recent
track record off of a loss
. It is likely one of the reasons why the Heat are now favored for tonight's Game 4 at San Antonio. The Spurs opened -1.5 at CRIS and were actually bet to -2 before a slew of Heat money came in.
Tags:
NBA
Miami Heat
San Antonio Spurs
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NBA Gambling Trends: Miami Heat on an 11-0 SU/ATS run off a loss
06.12.2013 07:39 AM
Printer Friendly
Miami
at
San Antonio
-1.5 O/U 187
Most bettors know by now the Miami Heat's success rate off of a loss. Heading into Thursday's Game 4, Miami has won and covered 11 straight in that situation. For the 2012-13 season, they are 18-3 SU, 15-6 ATS. Going back to last season, the Heat are 35-13 and 30-18 ATS.
Miami Heat Betting Results off of a SU Loss
Date
Opponent
Score
Heat Line
Heat SU
Heat ATS
1/12
at Sacramento
128-99
-7
Win
Win
1/16
at Golden State
92-75
-2.5
Win
Win
1/30
at Brooklyn
105-85
-2.5
Win
Win
2/3
at Toronto
100-85
-4.5
Win
Win
3/29
at New Orleans
108-89
-7.5
Win
Win
4/5
at Charlotte
89-79
-5
Win
Win
5/8
vs. Chicago
115-78
-13
Win
Win
5/26
at Indiana
114-96
-2
Win
Win
5/30
vs. Indiana
90-79
-7.5
Win
Win
6/3
vs. Indiana
99-76
-7
Win
Win
6/9
vs. San Antonio
103-84
-6
Win
Win
6/13
at San Antonio
???
+1.5
???
???
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Miami Heat
San Antonio Spurs
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NBA Finals Betting Recap: Hey Spurs! You Might Want to Save Some of Those Treys For Later!
06.12.2013 07:06 AM
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Stat Intelligence
The San Antonio Spurs set an all-time NBA Finals record by making 16 treys in their 113-77 Game Three victory over the Miami Heat Tuesday night. That put them ahead 2-1 in the best-of-seven series, and allowed them to maintain home court advantage for the time being.
It’s a fun party when everything’s falling in a 36-point victory. But…you don’t get to carry over any of the scoring into the next game. And, they know Miami’s just as capable of getting hot from long range in either Game Four or Game Five in the Alamo City. We talked in our “statline” preview that either team could see an outlier from long range lead to a big night. This was that for the Spurs.
That being said…there are a few things besides the three-point barrage worth noting to me.
*Overshadowed by the treys is the fact that this was an “Imposing of Will” type game for the Spurs. They were doing a great job defensively and on the boards in
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NBA Betting News: 63% of bettors on the OVER for Game 3 of Finals
06.11.2013 02:58 PM
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Here are the consensus bets for tonight's Game 3 of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given.
Side
San Antonio -2 - 58.2%
Total
San Antonio-Miami OVER 188 - 63.2%
Moneyline
Miami +115 - 65.5%
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NBA Finals Betting Recap: The Miami Heat Played Great...and THEN Went on a 23-3 Run!
06.10.2013 08:18 AM
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The fact that the San Antonio Spurs made SEVEN three-pointers in the first half helped hide how much they were being dominated when only trailing by a 50-45 score.
At the Half
*The Spurs were 9 of 29 on two-pointers
*The Spurs had committed seven turnovers
*Miami scored 50 points on only about 40-41 possessions, which is very efficient
And…Miami was doing that without a bunch of treys (though they would make their share later). Fantastic defense…though a guy they dared to beat them happened to string together a few made treys. Big time offense. It was the bounce-back effort many had expected...but it didn’t feel that way because Miami just couldn’t shake the Spurs. Were they in trouble?
No, they were getting ready to find that extra gear again.
Second Half
*The Spurs stopped making a bunch of treys
*Miami ADDED treys to what had already been working
*BOOM!
San Antonio won garbage time to create a 103-84 final that understates the carnage. Let’s run the numbers…
Miami 103, San Antonio
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NBA Betting Recap: San Antonio Spurs take down Miami Heat in Game 1
06.07.2013 07:05 AM
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Fantastic game. Most of the evening was very simple…
*Both teams kept working the ball sharply for open looks
*Neither team turned the ball over much
*Both offenses either made their open looks or saw the opposing defense rebound the miss
*Rinse and repeat for 40 minutes
Don’t want to overstate the case…but that was what basketball lovers imagine when they’re visualizing the perfect game. Clean as can be. No thuggery. Move the ball well and try to make your shots. Beautiful. Last year I wrote about the Spurs playing “the beautiful game” when they were at their peak. Both teams were doing that tonight. Until Miami hit a wall with about 8:30 to go.
*Miami led 76-73
*Miami started missing shots
*Miami started turning the ball over
*Miami seemed to lose a stop on defense.
San Antonio would win that last 8:30 by a 19-12 score (equivalent of a 27-17 quarter). And, three of Miami’s 12
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NBA Finals Gambling: Over 60% of bettors backing the San Antonio Spurs
06.06.2013 10:53 AM
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Here are the consensus bets for tonight's Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given.
Side
San Antonio +5 - 61.9%
Total
San Antonio-Miami OVER 188.5 - 54.9%
Moneyline
San Antonio +190 - 64.1%
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NBA Finals Gambling: Offshore and Vegas bettors can shop around
06.06.2013 08:01 AM
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It is obviously important to shop around when it comes to betting the NBA postseason. Here's a list of a few "off-market" numbers for tonight's Game 1 and the series as of 8 am PT.
Prevailing side and total
Miami Heat -5 O/U 188.5
Side Underdog
San Antonio Spurs +5.5 at Wynn, Coasts, Stations, Mirage, Golden Nugget, and Caesars
Total Under
189 at Heritage, Jazz, and Stations
Total Over
188 at LVH and Golden Nugget
Prevailing series number
Miami Heat -220/San Antonio Spurs +180
Series Favorite
Miami Heat -208 at Pinnacle, -215 at CRIS, Grande, and Heritage
Series Underdog
San Antonio Spurs +195 at Golden Nugget, +190 at Greek
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NBA Finals Handicapping: Statline Data for San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat
06.06.2013 07:21 AM
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It’s been awhile since we’ve looked at these. As was the format during March Madness, we look at regular season performance in two-point defense, rebounding differential, turnover differential, made treys per game, and pace ranking in the league. These numbers haven’t been adjusted from the playoffs. We’re looking to get a sense of skill sets.
Spurs.: 47% two-point defense, +1.2 rebounding, +0.2 TO’S, 8.1 treys, #6 pace
Heat: 47% two-point defense, -1.5 rebounding, +1.7 TO’S, 8.7 treys, #23 pace
*Most playoff teams were at 47% on deuces allowed, so we’re talking about playoff caliber teams who aren’t necessarily terrifying inside the arc. Indiana was the best of the playoff teams at 44%. Oklahoma City was best in the West at 45%.
*You won’t be surprised to see Miami trailing in the rebound category. They tend to blow off offensive rebounds to get everybody back to defend. We saw in the series finale vs.
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Sportsmemo's Erin Rynning talks NBA Finals on ESPN's Behind the Bets Podcast
06.05.2013 02:28 PM
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Here is a
link
to Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning's ESPN Behind the Bets Podcast from earlier today. Host Chad Millman talked with ER about the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs.
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Erin Rynning
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