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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Betting on or against NBA bottom feeders
04.08.2013 07:26 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
I’ve been writing about college basketball fairly consistently since the Super Bowl. Now that the calendar has shifted to April, it’s time to shift focus and start writing about the NBA. With less than ten days remaining in the regular season, most of the prevailing focus is on playoff teams. That’s why I’m writing this week’s column about the bottom feeders that have already been eliminated from playoff contention.
Can we make money betting on or against these squads down the stretch? Read on to find out my thoughts on a handful of lottery bound teams before I shift my focus towards playoff squads next week and beyond! Teams are listed in alphabetical order.
In the 2012 season, the
Charlotte Bobcats
set a record for NBA futility, finishing the season 7-59 SU. Their pointspread futility made headlines here in Las Vegas as well, as the Bobcats finished as the single biggest money loser in the league by a wide margin, a woeful 23-43 ATS.
In 2013, the Bobcats didn’t set any records for futility, but they’ve still got the single worst SU record in the
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NBA
Teddy Covers
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NBA Betting Free Play: Brookyn Nets at Denver Nuggets
03.29.2013 12:07 PM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Brooklyn
at
Denver
-6.5 O/U 203.5
Recommendation: Denver
The Nets are fat and happy right now, winners of four out of five on their season long eight-game road trip including each of their last two. The Nuggets are on the other end of the spectrum, hungry and focused after losing back-to-back games following their franchise record 15 game winning streak.
Put those two factors together with this very reasonable pointspread and the case for Denver is perfectly clear. The Nets are not a team to trust when stepping up in class, riding a 4-9 ATS run against opponents that are above .500. And the Nuggets home court is as strong as any in the NBA – they’ve won 17 straight on this floor; 32-3 for the season, while riding an 11-3 ATS hot streak in their last 14 here at the Pepsi Center.
When the Nets beat the Nuggets in Brooklyn last month, Denver was playing without starters Danilo Gallinari and Andre Igoudala,
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NBA
Denver Nuggets
Brooklyn Nets
Teddy Covers
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NBA Handicapper Free Pick: Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors
03.27.2013 12:33 PM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Sacramento
+9 at
Golden State
O/U 213
Recommendation: Sacramento
Very quietly, waaaay underneath the radar, the Kings have been playing vastly improved basketball in recent weeks. They’ve split their last eight games in SU fashion, including impressive upsets by 15 points or more against the playoff-bound Clippers and Bulls.
Even on the road, where the Kings have struggled mightily this year, we’ve seen Sacto hang tough at Miami, Denver and the LA Lakers while winning outright at Orlando. Point guard Isaiah Thomas: “Our offense has gotten a lot better, we're spacing the floor and playing more unselfish. And we're really getting dialed in on defense. We've been able to turn our defense into our offense.”
The Warriors have shown no ability to separate themselves from Sacramento in any recent meeting. All three previous games between these two teams this year have been down-to-the-wire nail biters decided by four points or less. The last
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NBA Handicapper Free Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers at Dallas Mavericks
03.15.2013 12:47 PM
Teddy Covers
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Cleveland
+8 at
Dallas
O/U 203
Recommendation: Cleveland
Dallas is in a very tough scheduling spot this evening. They played their guts out last night against San Antonio but came up a single point short, a hard fought defeat for a shorthanded team right now.
It doesn’t look like the Mavericks are going to have starting forward Shawn Marion on the floor again this evening, and starting center Chris Kaman is a major question mark after twisting his ankle last night. Last night’s loss dropped the Mavs into a tie with Portland in the West, both teams three games out of the final playoff spot.
For a sub .500 team like Dallas, it’s hard to picture them coming with maximum intensity here on the second night of back-to-backs. And we certainly shouldn’t forget that the Mavs have lost two of their last three at home in SU fashion, while the lone home win during that span came by only four points.
Cleveland notched a
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NBA Handicapper Free Play: New York Knicks at Golden State Warriors
03.11.2013 01:53 PM
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New York
at
Golden State
-2.5 O/U 201.5
Recommendation: Golden State
This is the mother of all good spots for Golden State tonight. The Warriors are in short turnaround revenge for a hard fought, spread covering loss at Madison Square Garden on their most recent road swing. And Golden State is coming off back-to-back home losses, their first back-to-back losses at home all year. For a team fighting to end their playoff drought, tonight’s game brings a particular sense of urgency.
Warriors head coach Mark Jackson: “I believe in my guys. We'll be fine, but we have to respond." Leading scorer Stephan Curry: “We're just not showing up right now. Individually everyone has to step up and just play better." Golden State should get a major boost with the expected return of All Star big man David Lee – the NBA’s leader in double doubles this season -- back to the lineup today after missing Saturday’s loss to
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NBA Handicapper Free Pick: Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers
02.11.2013 11:20 AM
Teddy Covers
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Brooklyn
at
Indiana
-8.5 O/U 183
Recommendation: Indiana
Brooklyn is falling apart before our eyes. They’ve lost six of nine, snapping any momentum they had gained from their strong run when PJ Carlesimo initially took over for Avery Johnson as the head coach. The worst part of the Nets recent decline has been their complete lack of effort once they fall behind. Their six losses during this skid have come by 25, 15, 9, 20, 13 and 24 points. In other words, when things start to go south for this team, they tend to go south in a hurry!
Nets shooting guard Joe Johnson doesn’t sound too convinced that his team will be able to turn it around on the second night of back-to-backs on the road against an elite level foe. Shooting guard Joe Johnson: “I don't know what it is, but you know, it just seems when a team makes a run on us, man, it just takes the air out of us. It shouldn't be that way. We should be able to respond, but it hasn't
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NBA Handicapper Free Pick: New Orleans Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers
01.15.2013 11:35 AM
Teddy Covers
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New Orleans
+3 at
Philadelphia
O/U 184
Recommendation: New Orleans
This is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions right now. Forget New Orleans' 11-26 full season record – it’s meaningless. The Hornets got star shooting guard Eric Gordon and #1 overall draft pick Anthony Davis back in the lineup and they’ve started to win.
First the Hornets knocked off Dallas in Dallas. Then they beat the red hot Spurs, a team playing as well as any in the league through the first two and half months of the season. They rallied from a double-digit deficit at the end of three quarters to knock off the Rockets, and rallied from another double digit deficit to beat Minnesota. The key in all four games was defense and rebounding – New Orleans won the rebounding battle each time and held all three opponents to 92 points or less in regulation.
But New Orleans played poorly against the Knicks at Madison Square
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NBA Handicapper Free Play: Phoenix Suns at Boston Celtics
01.09.2013 11:54 AM
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Phoenix
at
Boston
-9 O/U 191.5
Recommendation: Boston
The Celtics hit rock bottom over the holidays; blown out in all three games on their West Coast swing (losing by 29, 18 and 22 points, all non-competitive efforts), then returning home only to get whipped by double-digits by the Grizzlies. Instead of collapsing, the Celtics have rebounded with three consecutive strong performances – a 19-point blowout over the Pacers followed by back-to-back SU wins as road underdogs against playoff caliber competition (Atlanta and New York). All of a sudden the Celtics have some swagger back!
Avery Bradley isn’t the type of name player that will move a pointspread when he’s hurt or healthy. But make no mistake about it – Avery Bradley is absolutely an impact player for these Celtics; a defensive stopper on the perimeter. Bradley returned to the starting lineup against Philly and Doc Rivers’ squad has enjoyed three of their best defensive
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NBA Handicapper Free Pick: Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns
01.04.2013 12:01 PM
Teddy Covers
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Utah
at
Phoenix
-1.5 O/U 197.5
Recommendation: Phoenix
The Suns have absolutely owned the Jazz, winning eight of the last ten meetings between these two teams on any floor. That includes a comfortable 99-84 Phoenix victory when these two teams met just three weeks ago; a game that the Suns led by double digits after the first quarter and controlled thereafter.
There’s no reason to expect a dramatically different result tonight. The betting markets haven’t fully grasped the impact of the Mo Williams injury for Utah. Sure, the Jazz are 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS without him for the last five games – nothing significant there. But this is not as good of a team with career backups Jamaal Tinsley and Earl Watson splitting time at the point, as opposed to a former all-star. And facing a quick opposing point guard like Goran Dragic is likely to make the Jazz feel Williams’s absence that much more tonight.
It’s not hard to make a
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NBA Handicapper Free Pick: Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors
01.02.2013 09:48 AM
Teddy Covers
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LA Clippers
at
Golden State
+1.5 O/U 200
Recommendation: Golden State
This is a truly miserable spot for the LA Clippers. Their franchise record 17-game winning streak was snapped in Denver last night in a 14-point defeat, the type of game that showed how worn down LA is right now. They’ve got a huge showdown with the LA Lakers on tap for Friday Night. In between, they’ve got to travel from altitude on the second night of back-to-backs to face off against a surging Warriors team that has been undervalued by the betting markets all year; a top 3 team in terms of profitability and ATS results so far this season. Don’t expect the Clippers’ best effort here.
Meanwhile, Golden State has proven that they can beat the Clippers – they handed LA a loss at the Staples Center as 8.5 point dogs back in November in the lone previous meeting between these two teams. The Warriors are, by a wide margin, the better of these two
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