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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Previewing the NBA Season O/U Wins market

10.27.2014     12:39 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It’s Halloween week and the brand spankin’ new NBA season is upon us.  Some things have changed dramatically, most notably Lebron leaving Miami for a return trip to Cleveland.  That sets the books up for a real beating if the Cavs win the title next June since the Cavs opened as high as 60:1 before their enormous talent upgrade. 

Other things remain exactly the same, like the fact that the West is much, much stronger than the East, just as it has been since the Bulls run of dominance with Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen ended 17 years ago.  Let’s take a look at the upcoming NBA season from a betting perspective.

Other than the Cavs, many of the top contenders for the title remain the same.  The Spurs, Clippers, Thunder and Bulls are the only other teams besides Cleveland to be priced at less than 10:1 to win the title next June; all elite teams from last year. 

The top two teams in the East from 2013-24 – Miami and Indiana – both took major offseason hits, with the Heat losing LeBron and the Pacers losing Lance Stephenson to free agency and Paul George to a broken leg.  Oklahoma City, Read more


Tags: NBA Atlanta Hawks Cleveland Cavaliers Denver Nuggets Los Angeles Lakers Houston Rockets Utah Jazz Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Previewing the Western and Eastern Conference Finals

05.19.2014     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Only four teams remain standing in the NBA Playoffs; one of whom will bring home the title less than a month from now.  For all the drama of the first two rounds, it’s an all-chalk Final Four, with the top two seeds from each conference battling for supremacy.

With both Conference Finals getting underway on Sunday and Monday, I’ll take a closer look at the two series.  The goal, as always, is to unearth hidden nuggets pointing towards future pointspread success while assessing pace and totals as well.

Predicting series success generally correlates strongly with predicting pointspread success when it comes to the NBA Playoffs.  But not as much as last year!  In 2013, the Final Four teams combined to go 31-11 (74%) against the spread in the first two rounds of postseason; each of the four teams cashing at a 67% clip or better.  The ‘surprise’ team of the four, Memphis, went 10-1 ATS through the first two rounds before covering only once while getting swept by San Antonio.

The ATS success of the Final Four teams in 2014 pales in comparison to 2013.  Between them, the NBA’s Final Four have turned a Read more


Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder San Antonio Spurs Miami Heat Indiana Pacers Teddy Covers




NBA Handicapping: Betting adjusted series prices after Game 1

05.07.2014     12:43 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Brooklyn is now +700 or higher, up from +400-ish prior to Game 1. All the Nets have done is lose a Game 1 that they were supposed to lose as +8 underdog dogs in a very tough spot.

The Blazers are in the +550 range now, up from +330-ish in the exact same circumstance as Brooklyn – lose a game they were supposed to lose.

So there's no question in my mind – there's good value on both underdogs on the series price prior to Game 2.

But value isn't enough to get me to the betting window with either Brooklyn or Portland.

Getting to Game 7 won't be enough to make for a profitable hedge. Both the Spurs and the Heat are likely to be in the -400 range on the moneyline at home in a Game 7, and that would be the only safe way to hedge off. Doesn't leave much profit, and that's IF either squad can force a Game 7.

When it comes to winning four of the next six (or five, or four straight), I simply don't think the Nets or Blazers can do it.

I'm constantly looking for value with bets I feel I can win –that's the essence of my job – or bets that I feel I'll be able to profitably hedge off down the line. Neither Brooklyn Read more


Tags: NBA Brooklyn Nets Portland Trail Blazers Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: A look ahead to the NBA Conference Semifinals

05.05.2014     08:03 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The first round of the NBA Playoffs is in the books; a near perfect storm for underdog bettors.  Dogs emerged victorious in three series: Portland over Houston, Washington over Chicago and Brooklyn over Toronto.  The underdog – Dallas in every game – went 6-1 ATS in the Spurs – Mavs series.  Other series losers like Atlanta, Memphis and Golden State proved to be feistier than expected.  Put it all together and we saw dogs go 32-15-3 ATS for the full 50 games played in the first round.

Should we expect Round 2 to follow the same path?  All four series certainly look competitive on paper, although top seeds Miami and San Antonio are both significant favorites to knock off Brooklyn and Portland respectively.  The series prices for Washington – Indiana and LA Clippers – Oklahoma City are certainly indicative of tight battles to come.  In this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report I’ll examine all four of these second round series, looking for potential matchup edges that could offer ATS value as the series progress.

Indiana was lucky to survive their first round test against Atlanta.  The Hawks Read more


Tags: NBA Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Underdogs have owned the NBA Playoffs

04.28.2014     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Seven of the eight first round NBA Playoff series have proven to be competitive – only the Miami Heat have a commanding 3-0 series lead in their series over the Charlotte Bobcats.   After an opening weekend that saw underdogs go 6-2 ATS, 5-3 SU, the prevailing trend of upsets continued throughout the last week.

The current numbers are quite striking.  Pointspread favorites are a woeful 7-21-2 ATS through the first 30 playoff games.  In fact the favored team is just 14-16 SU – underdog moneyline bettors have been feasting over the first nine days of playoff action.  Therefore, it’s no surprise that the lower seeded team has the series lead in the Spurs-Mavs, Wizards-Bulls and Blazers-Rockets series, with potentially live underdogs still in play for Grizzles-Thunder, Warriors-Clippers, Nets-Raptors, and Pacers-Hawks.

What gives?  Why have the dogs covered at a 75% clip through the first 30 Playoff games?   Let’s start with the simple premise that the top seeds are more vulnerable than the markets expected while the lower seeds have proven to be no pushovers.

The #1 seeds (Pacers and Spurs) Read more


Tags: NBA Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Recapping NBA Playoff Game 1's

04.21.2014     08:00 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
There were eight opening round NBA Playoff Series that started this past weekend.  The lower seeded road teams – all underdogs in Game 1 – went 6-2 ATS, including five outright upset winners.  There were four games that flew Over the total, three that stayed Under and one (Miami-Charlotte) that finished right in between the opening and closing total.

This is just the start of a two month NBA Playoff marathon, and those Game 1’s may not be indicative of how these opening round series are likely to play out.  Here are some key note and quotes for each series following those Game 1’s.

Miami looked sluggish and lethargic for extended stretches of their opener against Charlotte, but took over the game with an 18-4 run in the fourth quarter when LeBron James was sitting on the bench.  Head coach Erik Spoelstra:  “We were flat to start. I think our guys were just anxious."  LeBron: “That group that was in once I took that break at the 10-minute mark in the fourth quarter, they just bumped the lead. Obviously, to have three Hall of Famers in the game when I'm out of the game, CB, D-Wade and Ray Read more


Tags: NBA Miami Heat Charlotte Bobcats San Antonio Spurs Dallas Mavericks Atlanta Hawks Indiana Pacers Golden State Warriors Los Angeles Clippers Teddy Covers




NBA Playoffs Betting Podcast with Sportsmemo Handicappers Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning

04.17.2014     02:29 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Erin Rynning and Teddy Covers. Erin and Teddy provided previews on all eight of the NBA's first round playoff matchups.

Today's segments
Full Show

Erin Rynning - Western Conference Preview

Teddy Covers - Eastern Conference Preview

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.



Tags: NBA Erin Rynning Teddy Covers




NBA Handicapper Free Play: Detroit Pistons at Oklahoma City Thunder

04.16.2014     10:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Detroit at Oklahoma City -14 O/U 211
Recommendation: Over


The Pistons have been the #1 Over team in the NBA all season long; 55-26 (68%) to the Over through their first 81 games.  Against Western Conference foes like the Thunder – teams that tend to play more uptempo than their Eastern Conference counterparts – Detroit has cashed Overs at a 76% clip in their last 30 ballgames.

Recent Pistons defensive efforts can only be described as dismal or non-existent – hence their 8-1 run to the Over in their last nine ballgames.   They’ve allowed 100+ nine times in their last ten games; 110 or more on seven separate occasions during that span.  Toronto – not exactly an uptempo squad – just hung 116 on Detroit in their last game. 

OKC is coming off back-to-back sluggish losses against the Pacers and Pelicans, failing to reach the century mark in either ballgame following a streak of 20 games out of their previous 23 Read more


Tags: NBA Detroit Pistons Oklahoma City Thunder Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning NBA Playoffs Combo Package

04.11.2014     06:22 AM     Printer Friendly
Two of the best NBA handicappers on the planet have combined forces for a special limited time combo pack offer. Get the rest of the NBA season from both Erin Rynning and Teddy Covers for the discounted rate of $499. Individually the packages run $399; pick up the combo for just $100 more and you'll save nearly $300! This offer is not available online so call the office at 1-800-575-3069 or email main@sportsmemo.com.



 



Tags: NBA Erin Rynning Teddy Covers




NBA Handicapper Free Play: Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers

04.09.2014     10:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Detroit +6.5 at Cleveland O/U 207
Recommendation: Detroit


I used the Cavs +6.5 as a free play when they travelled to Detroit less than two weeks ago and emerged with a one point SU victory.  In the rematch tonight, once again this pointspread is out of whack with current realities, but this time it’s Detroit offering legitimate value for their supporters.

The Cavs suffered brutal back-to-back losses last weekend; blown out by a Hawks team that they were chasing for the final playoff spot in the East, then knocked off at home in OT by the Bobcats.  While the Cavs remain technically alive for that last berth, they’ll need to win every game while the Hawks and Knicks lose every game; an extremely unlikely proposition.  For a squad with major chemistry issues that haven’t dissipated as the season has progressed, it’s hard to picture a circle-the-wagons level of effort this evening.

Detroit won at Cleveland on their last visit to Read more


Tags: NBA Detroit Pistons Cleveland Cavaliers Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Mar 06, 2015 08:20 PM.