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NBA Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder

01.17.2018     12:41 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
LA Lakers at Oklahoma City -10 O/U 216.5
Recommendation: Over

Of all the stats that I’ve researched in the NBA this season, perhaps the single most surprising numbers come from the LA Lakers; more specifically from Lonzo Ball. Rookie point guards aren’t noted for their defense. Rookie ‘one and done’ point guards coming out of college with a single year of playing time under a non-defensive minded head coach, in particular, are not noted for strong defense.

All of which makes the advanced metric stats stand out even more. Ball rates as the #1 defensive point guard in the NBA (of players that average at least 20 minutes per game). And those aren’t just some random, meaningless stats – the results show it very, very clearly.

Since Christmas, with Lonzo Ball on the court, the Lakers are 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS and 4-1 to the Under. Without Ball on the court, LA is 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS and 6-1 to the Over. That’s a meaningful dichotomy, not a random one, and Ball is listed as doubtful again this evening, not likely to suit up against Russell Westbrook and company.

The point guard Read more

Tags: NBA Los Angeles Lakers Oklahoma City Thunder Teddy Covers

NBA Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks

01.12.2018     12:29 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Golden State at Milwaukee +6.5 O/U 225
Recommendation: Milwaukee

Last year, here at the Bradley Center, the Bucks gave the Warriors everything they could handle, losing by only three points as a nine point home underdog. Two years ago, Jason Kidd’s squad pulled off the outright upset against Golden State on this floor, winning by 13 as nine point dogs. Clearly, Kidd and the Bucks get up for their only home game against the defending champs.

This year’s Milwaukee squad is better – much better – than recent editions. Giannis Antetokounmpo has morphed into a superstar. Point guard Eric Bledsoe has clearly sparked the offense. Kris Middleton is averaging more than 20 points per game. Malcolm Brogdon is continuing to develop off his ‘Rookie of the Year’ campaign in 2017.

The end result? Milwaukee’s offensive execution is as good as it’s been at any point in the Kidd era, and it’s getting better by the week. For the full season, Milwaukee ranks #7 in offensive efficiency. Since Christmas, they’re at #4 in the NBA. And that’s a problem for the disjointed Read more

Tags: NBA Golden State Warriors Milwaukee Bucks Teddy Covers

NBA Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns

11.10.2017     12:09 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Orlando -3.5 at Phoenix O/U 226
Recommendation: Orlando

Here’s the key quote, from Suns veteran big man Jared Dudley, after Phoenix lost their fourth straight game earlier in the week: "We are going to have a problem with consistency throughout the year... Since Jay took over, we might have had one or one-and-a-half practices. We've had a lot of games, and there is only so much you can go over, so much film you can do. I think he's a done great job so far. I just think that we need to ride this stretch before next week beginning a couple practices and going over certain things that we need to go through on the defensive end."

The Suns have gotten a little bit better since Jay Triano took over for Earl Watson following their dismal start, at least from an effort standpoint. But from a defensive standpoint, the Suns remain a bottom five team. It’s the same story on offense, no surprise for a team that suspended, then traded their starting point guard, leaving D-League veteran (but undrafted NBA rookie) Mike James as the starter at the point. This is not a strong homecourt either, as clearly evidenced by the Suns Read more

Tags: NBA Orlando Magic Phoenix Suns Teddy Covers

NBA Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks

11.06.2017     01:36 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Boston -8 at Atlanta O/U 204.5
Recommendation: Boston

The Celtics lost Gordon Hayward five minutes into the season. Boston lost on opening night, then lost the following night at home to Milwaukee. The betting markets immediately devalued Boston; a team with a whole host of new faces just learning to play with one another. That was a mistake!
Head coach Brad Stevens has worked his magic. The Celtics haven’t lost since that defeat to the Bucks on the second night of the season. That includes road wins, by margin, at Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Miami, Orlando and OKC; all of whom are better than the bottom feeder Hawks team they’ll face today.

The Celtics enter Sunday with the #1defense in the NBA, allowing fewer than 96 points per 100 possessions. That’s bad news for a Hawks team that ranks #26 in offensive efficiency this season. Other than veteran point guard Dennis Schroder, this is not a team loaded with playmakers. When the Hawks aren’t draining three’s, they’re a rough team to watch (or bet on). And, frankly, not many teams are draining three’s against this stout Boston Read more

Tags: NBA Boston Celtics Atlanta Hawks Teddy Covers

NBA Playoff Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors

05.04.2017     10:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Utah +13.5 at Golden State O/U 206
Recommendation: Utah

The Golden State Warriors won every stat comparison they could win in their Game 1 victory over Utah.  The Warriors won fast break points 29-6.  They won points off turnovers by a 20-4 margin.  Golden State shot 49% from the floor and outscored the Jazz by ten at the free throw line, hitting 91% of their foul shots too! Golden State had 32 assists on 40 made field goals.  They completely shut down Utah’s Gordon Hayward, held to just 4-of-15 shooting with only four assists and four rebounds.

And yet, when the dust cleared, it was Utah, not Golden State, who cashed winning bets for their backers thanks to a late 8-2 run in the closing minutes with all the starters for both teams sitting on the bench.  That’s the danger of laying double digits in an NBA Playoff game, even with an elite team like the Warriors, very similar to their Game 1 showing against the Blazers.

Jazz head coach Quin Snyder wrote one word on the chalkboard in the locker room prior to their Game 7 win at LA against the Clippers: ‘Compete’.  Read more

Tags: NBA Utah Jazz Golden State Warriors Teddy Covers

NBA Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls

04.28.2017     11:28 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Boston -3 at Chicago O/U 203.5
Recommendation: Boston

Even after the line move towards the Celtics in early betting action, I’m still expecting Boston to close out this series with a Game 6 victory tonight. The results don’t lie. The Bulls covered the spread in Games 1 and 2 by 10.5 points and 21.5 points, winning outright as underdogs both times.

Then point guard Rajon Rondo broke his thumb, forced to sit out. The Bulls hung 106 and 111 points in the first two games with Rondo distributing the basketball extremely effectively, as Chicago notched 50 assists in those two ballgames. They notched only 31 combined assists in Games 3 and 4 with Jerian Grant, then Isaiah Canaan starting at point guard.

Grant was benched completely by Game 5. Canaan was a DNP-coaches decision 29 times in the regular season, and he played more than 20 minutes of gametime only once since December. Yet the last two games, Canaan has played more than 70 minutes of floor time. He has a grand total of three assists in those 70+ minutes.

Weak point guard play is a problem at any time of the year. When it comes to Read more

Tags: NBA Boston Celtics Chicago Bulls Teddy Covers

NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Podcast 4-14-2017 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers

04.14.2017     10:05 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy and host Andrew Lange broke down the four NBA Eastern Conference Playoff series. Note that analysis on the Western Conference with Erin Rynning will be posted later tonight. 

Today's segments
Teddy Covers - NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NBA Teddy Covers Andrew Lange

NBA Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors

03.29.2017     11:46 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Charlotte at Toronto -6 O/U 202
Recommendation: Toronto

My clients and I cashed an easy winner betting against the Hornets last night. There’s little reason to think that Charlotte will be significantly more competitive as they step up in class against a focused foe on the second night of back-to-backs tonight. Let me start with an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up, with the numbers edited slightly to reflect current realities:

“Charlotte was a playoff team last year, finishing with 48 wins and the #6 seed. The markets still remember and respect that team, in some ways overshadowing the 33-41 squad from this year in the betting world. The Hornets did their best to blow a 25 point second half lead against a Suns team playing on the second night of back-2-backs in their last game, on the heels of a defensive no-show against the Cavs in their previous contest. And the betting markets are offering us legitimate value with wiseguy steam showing for Charlotte in early betting action today.”

There’s been steam on Charlotte again today, pushing the line down to -5.5 as I write this Read more

Tags: NBA Charlotte Hornets Toronto Raptors Teddy Covers

NBA Betting Podcast 3-27-2017 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers

03.27.2017     10:04 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy broke down the entire NBA card.

Today's segments
Teddy Covers - NBA Every Game on the Board

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.


Tags: NBA Teddy Covers

NBA Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers

03.02.2017     11:00 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Oklahoma City +1 at Portland O/U 219.5
Recommendation: Oklahoma City

There’s no comparison between the Thunder and the Trail Blazers right now, making this short pointspread look very attractive to this bettor! Portland is in a world of hurt.  The Blazers are returning home off a losing road trip that culminated in another fourth quarter turnover fueled meltdown and subsequent OT loss at Detroit. They haven’t won a home game since January, losing each of their last three games on this floor both SU and ATS.  And the quotes coming out of Terry Stotts locker room aren’t exactly reeking with confidence these days.

Damian Lillard: “We're frustrated. We played a good game outside of turnovers. We feel like we should have won the game. We should be happy going on this flight (to Portland) with a 'W' and a 2-1 trip, but we're not.  That's disappointing.”  Portland will be hard pressed to match their 52% shooting effort that they put up against the Pistons.  And the Blazers weakness in the paint is a real problem against a team like OKC.

Don’t confuse the Thunder in March from the Read more

Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder Portland Trail Blazers Teddy Covers


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