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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NBA Western Conference Playoffs update

04.29.2013     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Two weeks ago, I broke down the Eastern Conference Playoff Race in this column, concluding (to no surprise) that the Miami Heat are truly deserving of their big chalk, heavy favorite status; clearly the team to beat. 

Last week, I got distracted by the upcoming (at the time) NFL Draft; looking to make my point that draft results hold surprisingly little influence over the opening Week 1 pointspreads, and that every prediction you read or hear about ‘Draft Grades’ is likely to be flawed at best, dead wrong at worst.

That being said, one other factor about the NFL Draft was perfectly clear this past weekend.  The better organizations in the NFL are in much better position to succeed than the weaker organizations.  Which is which?  Look no further than a recent recap of Super Bowl champs to identify ‘good’ organizations – squads with a short and long term plan, and the management team to implement that plan. 

The Ravens, Giants, Packers, Steelers, Patriots, Colts, Seahawks and 49ers are at the top of my ‘quality organization’ list, and you can assume a priori that those eight organizations Read more

Tags: NBA Los Angeles Clippers Oklahoma City Thunder San Antonio Spurs Golden State Warriors Teddy Covers

NBA Playoff Gambling: Quick Market Assessment of Westbrook's Value

04.27.2013     07:40 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

We’ve had time now for the market to react to the sad news that Russell Westbrook of Oklahoma City is going to miss time to have meniscus surgery. It looks like the composite of opinions rates his value at three points.

*Oklahoma City was -3 at Houston before the injury was announced

*Oklahoma City moved to pick-em on the news

*Some initial interest on the Rockets made it Houston -1 in places

*Oklahoma City money brought it back to pick-em
I know there are some in the field who think very few players are worth THAT much in terms of team Power Ratings. We’ll have to give the Thunder a few games to show us what the impact is going to be. For now, let’s assume that the market is correct. Let’s see what that does to the Western playoff picture based on our most recent assessment of the market ratings. Oklahoma had been an 86.

Estimated Market Power Ratings in the West

84: LA Clippers, Memphis Read more

Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder Stat Intelligence

NBA Gambling Alert: Westbrook worth four points to spread according to betting markets

04.26.2013     11:44 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Oklahoma City at Houston -1 O/U 208

So by now you've heard that Oklahoma City's Russell Westbrook is out with indefinately with a knee injury. He'll need surgery and his return at this point is up in the air. Now obviously Westbrook is worth a few points to the spread and total. Once news broke, sportsbooks scrambled to the take the game off the board while some have since reopened the game. Prior the the announcement, Oklahoma City was a 3-point road favorite with a total of 211. CRIS reopened the game a pick 'em with a total of 210. As of 11:30 am PT, the Rockets are a 1-point favorite while the total has clicked down to 208. We'll keep you posted if any significant line moves take place for Saturday's contest.

"We're not trying to rush him or bring him back ahead of schedule. We want to make sure he's healthy and his knee Read more

Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder Houston Rockets

NBA Playoff Betting Preview: No. 8 Houston Rockets vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder

04.19.2013     11:16 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Western Conference First Round
No. 8 Houston Rockets vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder

Series Schedule
Game 1 - Sun April 21, at Oklahoma City, 6:30 pm PT
Game 2 - Wed April 24, at Oklahoma City, 4 pm PT
Game 3 - Sat April 27, at Houston, 6:30 pm PT
Game 4 - Mon April 29, at Houston, TBD
Game 5 * Wed May 1, at Oklahoma City, TBD
Game 6 * Fri May 3, at Houston, TBD
Game 7 * Sun May 5, at Oklahoma City, TBD

Series Price (CRIS)
Oklahoma City -1800, Houston +1000

Season Records
Oklahoma City - 60-22 SU, 49-31-2 ATS, 37-43-2 O/U
Houston - 45-37 SU, 41-40-1 ATS, 41-41 O/U

Season Series (OKC 2-1 SU/ATS, 3-0 O/U)
2/20 - Houston (+3) 122 vs. Oklahoma City 119 - Over220.5
12/29 - Oklahoma City (-4.5) 124 at Houston 94 - Over 213
11/28 - Oklahoma City (-10.5) 120 vs. Houston 98 - Over 210

Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno's take:
Interested to see how long this series takes, in part because the gap between games played by these teams was so large during the regular Read more

Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunders Houston Rockets Rob Veno

NBA Gambling News: San Antonio close to full strength vs. Oklahoma City

04.04.2013     07:14 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Early reports indicate that the San Antonio Spurs will be close to full strength for tonight's game at Oklahoma City. In last night's win over Orlando, the Spurs rested Tony Parker, Kawhi Leonard, and DeJuan Blair while Tim Duncan and Stephen Jackson played less than 20 minutes. Manu Ginobili (hamstring) however remains out and could miss the start of the playoffs

Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA Betting Trends: Oklahoma City Thunder in short lined games

03.20.2013     11:33 AM     Printer Friendly
Oklahoma City at Memphis -1.5 O/U 190.5

It's hard to find a weakness with the Oklahoma City Thunder. They boast the second best record in the Western Conference (50-18) and are better than 60% against the spread year-to-date (40-26-2). But we did spot one profile in which they've struggled – short lined games. In contests where the Thunder are short favorites (-2.5 or less) or small underdogs (+3 or less) they are only 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS. OKC is currently a 1.5-point road underdog at Memphis for tonight.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Results - Short lined games
OKC Line
San Antonio
LA Clippers
Golden State
LA Clippers
San Antonio

Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder Memphis Grizzlies

NBA Betting Recap: Oklahoma City Thunder win, New York Knicks cover

03.08.2013     08:02 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Oklahoma City Thunder survived a one-point thriller Thursday Night in New York. It wasn’t supposed to be a thriller, as the rested Thunder were 8-point favorites over a Knicks team that was missing Carmelo Anthony…playing in a back-to-back spot…and playing its fourth game in five nights. OKC didn’t play much defense until the fourth quarter…using a 20-13 win there to salvage a relatively unimpressive 96-95 victory.

Oddly enough, that 20-13 quarter brought Oklahoma City to 20-13 this year against teams playing .500 ball or better. Their third-best overall league record drops to a tie for fifth best in the SuperLeague.

Records vs. .500 or Better

San Antonio 23-10 (.696)

Miami 23-11 (.676)

LA Clippers 24-13 (.648)

Denver 24-13 (.648)

Memphis 20-13 (.606)

Oklahoma City 20-13 (.606)

Hey, winning 61% against good teams is nothing to sneeze at. The problem is…once you Read more

Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder New York Knicks

NBA Betting: Miami Heat have won and covered five straight vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

02.14.2013     06:12 AM     Printer Friendly
Miami at Oklahoma City -5 O/U 204.5

Big matchup on TNT tonight with Miami headed to Oklahoma City. The two squads last hooked up on Christmas with the Heat (-2.5) earning the victory, 103-97. It is also a rematch of last year's NBA Finals in which Miami won 4-1. Tonight will mark the third time this season the Heat have been an underdog – in the previous two they beat both the Lakers and Nugget outright.

Miami-Oklahoma City Betting History Last 10 Games
MIA 103, OKC 97
Miami -2.5
Under 203
MIA 121, OKC 106
Miami -3.5
Over 194
MIA 104, OKC 98
Miami -3.5
Over 192.5
MIA 91, OKC 85
Miami -4
Under 193
Oklahoma City
MIA 100, OKC 96
Miami +5.5
Push 196
Oklahoma City
OKC 105, MIA 94
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City -5
Over 195
MIA 98, OKC 93
Miami -3
Under 198.5
Oklahoma City
OKC 103, MIA 87
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City -2
Under 201.5
OKC 96, MIA 85
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City +6
Under 202.5
Oklahoma City
MIA 108, OKC 103
Miami +1
Over 201.5

Tags: NBA Miami Heat Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA Betting Alert: Durant and Nowitzki expected to suit up

02.04.2013     02:31 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Dallas at Oklahoma City -8 O/U 209

The latest reports indicate that Oklahoma City's Kevin Durant will play tonight against Dallas. Durant hurt his ribs in Saturday's loss at Cleveland. Durant hasn't missed a game since December of 2010. Also slated to play is Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki who missed two games with an abductor strain. 

Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder Dallas Mavericks

NBA Handicapping: Paul listed as a game time decision vs. Oklahoma City

01.22.2013     12:22 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Oklahoma City -1 at LA Clippers O/U 200

Los Angeles' Chris Paul (knee) will be a game time decision for tonight's game against Oklahoma City. Following last night's loss to Golden State, Paul felt that he did more harm than good in terms of trying to play at less than 100 percent. He was noticeably limping throughout the game. The Clippers are 3-0 SU/ATS without Paul this season.

"I'm just mad because I feel like we let a game get away," Paul said. "I didn't feel like I could do what I wanted to do. Me being out there probably hurt us more than it helped us. I feel bad in that regard."

Tags: NBA Los Angeles Clippers Oklahoma City Thunder


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