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NBA Gambling Consensus: Betting public likes Oklahoma City, market pushes San Antonio to -6

05.19.2014     01:54 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here are the consensus bets for tonight's Game 1 of the NBA Western Conference Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs according to Bookmaker. The betting public appears to be supporting the underdog despite the line move from San Antonio -4.5 to -5.5 (following Ibaka’s injury) and now earlier this afternoon to -6. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

Oklahoma City +6 (56.8%) at San Antonio

Oklahoma City at San Antonio OVER 209.5 (75.6%)

Oklahoma City +227 (53.8%) at San Antonio

Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Oklahoma City Thunder

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Previewing the Western and Eastern Conference Finals

05.19.2014     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Only four teams remain standing in the NBA Playoffs; one of whom will bring home the title less than a month from now.  For all the drama of the first two rounds, it’s an all-chalk Final Four, with the top two seeds from each conference battling for supremacy.

With both Conference Finals getting underway on Sunday and Monday, I’ll take a closer look at the two series.  The goal, as always, is to unearth hidden nuggets pointing towards future pointspread success while assessing pace and totals as well.

Predicting series success generally correlates strongly with predicting pointspread success when it comes to the NBA Playoffs.  But not as much as last year!  In 2013, the Final Four teams combined to go 31-11 (74%) against the spread in the first two rounds of postseason; each of the four teams cashing at a 67% clip or better.  The ‘surprise’ team of the four, Memphis, went 10-1 ATS through the first two rounds before covering only once while getting swept by San Antonio.

The ATS success of the Final Four teams in 2014 pales in comparison to 2013.  Between them, the NBA’s Final Four have turned a Read more

Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder San Antonio Spurs Miami Heat Indiana Pacers Teddy Covers

NBA Gambling Update: Spurs leery of Ibaka's status for series

05.19.2014     08:21 AM     Printer Friendly

On Friday we discussed the impact Serge Ibaka's injury had on the betting markets for both Game 1 and the Western Conference Finals series. By all accounts, Ibaka is done for the year but the Spurs are for whatever reason skeptical. Note that while Ibaka's injury (assuming he's out) could hurt the Thunder from a defensive perspective, offensive they've been significantly better this postseason with him on the pine (+5.7 per 48 vs. -2.1).

"I don't really believe it," point guard Tony Parker told reporters Sunday. "I'll believe when I see tomorrow he is not on the court. It's hard to believe. We'll see."


NBA Handicapping: Bettors react to Ibaka's injury

05.17.2014 Read more

Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder San Antonio Spurs

NBA Handicapping: Bettors react to Ibaka's injury

05.17.2014     06:43 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Yesterday it was announced the Oklahoma City's Serge Ibaka would miss the rest of the postseason with a calf injury. Nick Collison and Steven Adams will split time patrolling the paint for the Thunder. Ibaka's departure had a fairly significant impact on the betting markets. San Antonio opened as a 4.5-point home favorite for Monday's Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. With Ibaka out the Spurs were bet up to -5.5. San Antonio also took money for the series going from -175 favorites to as high as -210.

“We are obviously disappointed for Serge, as he is a tremendous competitor, and we know how badly he wants to be on the court with his teammates,” Oklahoma City general manager Sam Presti said in a statement. “At this point it is important that our team directs its concentration and energy towards preparation and execution for our upcoming series. As with all teams, our group has confronted different challenges. It is our collective experience that we will call on to ensure that we play to our

Read more

Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder San Antonio Spurs

NBA Gambling Consensus: Betting public likes both of Monday's games OVER the total

05.12.2014     01:23 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Three of this past weekend's four NBA Playoff games went OVER the total upping the postseason mark to a ridiculous 40-23-1 O/U. But the betting markets – those responsible for moving the lines – bet both of Monday's games UNDER total total. Miami-Brooklyn opened 189.5 (CRIS) and was bet down to as low as 187. San Antonio-Portland opened 212 with most sportsbooks now offering 210 or 210.5. As for the betting public, they of course like the two favorites and the over with better than 60% of action. Below are the betting consensus numbers for tonight...

Miami -2 (72%) at Brooklyn
San Antonio -4.5 (60%) at Portland

Miami at Brooklyn OVER 187.5 (65%)
San Antonio at Portland OVER 210.5 (64%)

Tags: NBA Brooklyn Nets Miami Heat San Antonio Spurs Portland Trail Blazers

NBA Gambling: Spurs and Popovich continue to exceed expectations

04.23.2014     02:20 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Nate Silver's FiveThityEight blog tackles the topic of Gregg Popovich's success against the spread.

If Popovich were just a .500 coach against the point spread, the probability that he’d achieve a 843-728 record or better against it is just 0.17 percent. In other words, this is an awful lot of games, and Pop has done awfully well. It’s likely that there’s something going on — something the betting public has been missing. (And it’s something that it has been missing continually; Popovich’s edge has not abated recently. The Spurs’ record against the point spread over the past five seasons is 54.5 percent.)

Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Recapping NBA Playoff Game 1's

04.21.2014     08:00 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
There were eight opening round NBA Playoff Series that started this past weekend.  The lower seeded road teams – all underdogs in Game 1 – went 6-2 ATS, including five outright upset winners.  There were four games that flew Over the total, three that stayed Under and one (Miami-Charlotte) that finished right in between the opening and closing total.

This is just the start of a two month NBA Playoff marathon, and those Game 1’s may not be indicative of how these opening round series are likely to play out.  Here are some key note and quotes for each series following those Game 1’s.

Miami looked sluggish and lethargic for extended stretches of their opener against Charlotte, but took over the game with an 18-4 run in the fourth quarter when LeBron James was sitting on the bench.  Head coach Erik Spoelstra:  “We were flat to start. I think our guys were just anxious."  LeBron: “That group that was in once I took that break at the 10-minute mark in the fourth quarter, they just bumped the lead. Obviously, to have three Hall of Famers in the game when I'm out of the game, CB, D-Wade and Ray Read more

Tags: NBA Miami Heat Charlotte Bobcats San Antonio Spurs Dallas Mavericks Atlanta Hawks Indiana Pacers Golden State Warriors Los Angeles Clippers Teddy Covers

NBA Gambling News: Mavericks will play regular rotation vs. Grizzlies

04.16.2014     02:19 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Dallas at Memphis -3.5 O/U 190.5

Dallas plans on playing its regular rotation tonight against Memphis despite having a postseason spot locked up. The team feels reaching the 50-win plateau is worth fighting for. Not to mention if they win they avoid top seed San Antonio is the first round. All three potential opponents (Spurs, Thunder, or Clippers) are obviously quality ball clubs but the Mavs haven't had a lot of success of late against San Antonio having lost nine straight.

“I’m not even thinking about that kind of stuff,’’ Carlisle said after Wednesday morning’s shootaround at the FedEx Forum. “If you can get a higher seed, if you can get 50 wins, you do it.

“It’s more than just avoiding San Antonio,’’ center Samuel Dalembert said. “It’s more like we have pride

Read more

Tags: NBA Dallas Mavericks Memphis Grizzlies San Antonio Spurs

NBA Gambling Alert: Spurs expected to play starters vs. Rockets

04.14.2014     12:47 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
San Antonio at Houston -5 O/U 212

Despite having wrapped up the top seed in the Western Conference, the San Antonio Spurs plan on playing their "regulars" tonight vs. Houston.

“Having all your horses going in the playoffs is huge I think that’s everybody’s major concern. And then hopefully you’re as sharp as you can be execution wise. Those two things I think are the top priorities. I want to keep everybody healthy and I want to keep everybody sharp. That means you can’t just sit people and expect them to roll out first playoff game and be sharp and ready to go. People have to play.”

Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Houston Rockets

NBA Handicapper Free Play: Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs

04.02.2014     10:51 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Golden State +10 at San Antonio O/U 202
Recommendation: Golden State

The quotes coming out of the San Antonio locker room are very clear – the Spurs are much more interested in resting and getting healthy for the playoffs than they are with extending their 18 game winning streak.  As big home favorites tonight, that leaves San Antonio overpriced in the betting markets as they take on Golden State.

Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich, in a candid moment with reporters earlier this week said that his team needed to get “slapped” to keep them grounded after all of these wins.  Point guard Tony Parker: “I think he'll be happy if we lose anytime soon. I'm pretty sure because he's going to rest like half of the team."  Hall of Famer Tim Duncan: “We'll worry about a couple of things, staying healthy, finishing the season strong and hopefully going into the playoffs with the confidence we're playing with Read more

Tags: NBA Golden State Warriors San Antonio Spurs Teddy Covers


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