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NBA Playoff Betting: Update Power Ratings

04.26.2013     07:48 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Let’s catch up with a couple of things. First, an updated look at the estimated Power Ratings for the 16 playoff teams based on market prices. I’m using the posted G3 lines to tweak what we had seen earlier.

It gets kind of goofy now because the market tends to boost the “home opener-must win” teams 1-2 points…and there can be a tendency to make home court advantage worth 4 points instead of 3 in the postseason depending on how results are going. For now…I’m going to keep using 3…but I’ve sent up separate home/road numbers for several teams. I think there’s an additional “must win” boost in the mix for Boston, Atlanta and Houston that may or may not be justified. You saw that in the Memphis line Thursday given the 10-point distance from the G2 number to the G3 number with the site switch.

88: Miami

86: Oklahoma City

84: LA Clippers, Memphis (home)

83: Denver (home), Read more


Tags: NBA Stat Intelligence




NBA Betting Alert: Money pouring in on San Antonio Spurs for Game 3

04.25.2013     12:41 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Some activity going on in the NBA betting markets for Friday’s Spurs-Lakers Game 3. San Antonio is off to a 2-0 series lead and opened as a 2.5-point road favorite. After getting bet to -3 CRIS just moved the game to -4. Most Las Vegas shops remain at -3 while the entire offshore world is -3.5/-4. Line history courtesy of CRIS.

copy_spurs_lakers.JPG

 



Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Los Angeles Lakers




NBA Playoff Betting: Bettors side with Miami and Chicago for tonight's Game 3 matchups

04.25.2013     12:02 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are the consensus bets for tonight's NBA Playoff Game 3 matchups courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given wager.

Sides
Miami -7 - 75.7%
Chicago -3.5 - 62.9%
LA Clippers _4.5 - 50.8%

Moneylines
Miami -350 - 83.8%
Memphis -205 - 67.6%
Chicago -170 - 53.1%

Totals
LA Clippers-Memphis OVER 179.5 - 61.0%
Miami-Milwaukee OVER 195.5 - 55.6%
Brooklyn-Chicago UNDER 181.5 - 51.8%



Tags: NBA Miami Heat Chicago Bulls




NBA Betting Trends: Chicago Bulls struggle in role of home favorite

04.25.2013     10:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Brooklyn at Chicago -3.5 O/U 181.5

The Chicago Bulls are currently 3.5-point home favorites for tonight's Game 3 vs. the Brooklyn Nets. As home chalk the Bulls have performed admirably from a straight up perspective with a record of 21-12. But against the spread, they've been absolute moneyburners at 8-24-1 ATS (0-6-1 ATS to close regular season). The average margin of victory in those 33 games was exactly three points. Also note that 20 of those 33 contests went UNDER the total.



Tags: NBA Chicago Bulls Brooklyn Nets




NBA Playoff Gambling Trends: How teams fare in Game 4 when up 3-0

04.25.2013     07:45 AM     Printer Friendly
It is likely that we'll see a few teams take 3-0 series leads following this weekend's NBA Playoff action. For future reference, below is a chart of how teams that were up 3-0 in the first round fared both straight up and against the spread in Game 4. The results were positive with a 24-11 SU mark and 20-12-3 ATS.

NBA Playoffs Betting Trends: 1st Round Game 4 Results for Teams up 3-0
Year
3-0 Lead
Line
Opponent
Score
SU
ATS
2003
Mavericks
-1.5
Trailblazers
79-98
Loss
Loss
2003
Nets
1.5
Celtics
110-101
Win
Win
2003
Nets
-7.5
Pistons
102-82
Win
Win
2004
Pacers
-7
Celtics
90-75
Win
Win
2004
Spurs
-4
Grizzlies
110-97
Win
Win
2004
Nets
-4.5
Knicks
100-94
Win
Win
2005
Suns
-5
Grizzlies
123-115
Win
Win
2005
Heat
-5
Nets
110-97
Win
Win
2005
Heat
-4
Wizards
99-95
Win
Push
2005
Spurs
-6
Suns
106-111
Loss
Loss
2006
Mavericks
-2.5
Grizzlies
102-76
Win
Win
2007
Pistons
-4.5
Magic
97-93
Win
Loss
2007
Bulls
4
Heat
92-79
Win
Win
2007
Cavaliers
-6
Wizards
97-90
Win
Win
2007
Pistons
-2.5
Bulls
87-102
Loss
Loss
2007
Spurs
-3
Cavaliers
83-82
Win
Loss
2008
Spurs
4
Suns
86-105
Loss
Loss
2008
Lakers
-4.5
Nuggets
107-101
Win
Win
2009
Cavaliers
-8.5
Pistons
99-78
Win
Win
2009
Cavaliers
-10
Hawks
84-74
Win
Push
2009
Nuggets
2
Mavericks
117-119
Loss
Push
2010
Celtics
1.5
Heat
92-101
Loss
Loss
2010
Magic
-4
Bobcats
99-90
Win
Win
2010
Suns
3.5
Spurs
107-101
Win
Win
2010
Magic
-6
Hawks
98-84
Win
Win
2010
Lakers
3.5
Jazz
111-96
Win
Win
2010
Celtics
-6.5
Magic
92-96
Loss
Loss
2010
Bulls
-4.5
Pacers
84-89
Loss
Loss
2011
Celtics
-3
Knicks
101-89
Win
Win
2011
Heat
-6
Seventysixers
82-86
Loss
Loss
2011
Thunder
3.5
Nuggets
101-104
Loss
Win
2011
Mavericks
-2
Lakers
122-86
Win
Win
2012
Thunder
1.5
Mavericks
103-97
Win
Win
2012
Heat
-8
Knicks
87-89
Loss
Loss
2012
Spurs
-7.5
Jazz
87-81
Win
Loss
Results
 
 
 
 
24-11
20-12-3




Tags: NBA




NBA Playoff Betting Recap: Pacers and Spurs win and cover, take 2-0 lead

04.25.2013     07:17 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Treys by the Keg, Tired Legs, and Goose Eggs...

Some very interesting games to talk about as we continue our coverage of the NBA Playoffs.. We’ll pick up with Tuesday’s late finisher, then run through all three of Wednesday’s matchups. I’ll try to find some things that aren’t being dwelled upon much in the mainstream media coverage I’ve been monitoring. See if you can figure out which games match which headline terms! ("bushel" didn’t fit the rhyme scheme)

Golden State 131, Denver 117

2-Point Percentage: Golden State 69%, Denver 57%

3-Point Shooting: Golden State 14/25, Denver 9/26

Free Throws: Golden State 15/20, Denver 28/37

1’s and 2’s: Golden State 89, Denver 90

Rebounds: Golden State 36, Denver 26

Turnovers: Golden State 17, Denver 15

As I’ve mentioned before, this series is being very well covered in the Read more


Tags: NBA Indiana Pacers San Antonio Spurs Stat Intelligence




NBA Playoff Betting Notes: Boston Celtics try to climb 0-2 mountain

04.24.2013     02:19 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New York at Boston -3 O/U 183.5

Being down 2-0 in a playoff series isn't a death sentence but the odds certainly aren't stacked in your favor. Only 15 teams have ever rallied back after losing the first two games. One of those teams was the Dallas Mavericks who in 2005 dropped back-to-back contests at home to the Rockets but won rallied back to win the series in seven games.


“I guess they say the series hasn’t started -- and I’ve heard this corny line a million times -- until the road team wins,” said Rivers. “I am positive the series has started because we are down 2-0.”

“We lost those first two at home and went in their building and beat them pretty good twice and ended up winning in seven Read more



Tags: NBA Boston Celtics New York Knicks




NBA Handicapping: Brooklyn's Johnson dealing with foot injury

04.24.2013     12:10 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Brooklyn at Chicago -3.5 O/U 181

Expected to play but far from 100 percent, Brooklyn's Joe Johnson is dealing with a painful bout of plantar fasciitis. In Games 1 and 2, Johnson combined for 13-of-31 from the floor, 33 points, eight assists, and eight rebounds.


"I think it was a little bit of plantar in February when it first started, but now it's deep into the plantar fasciitis," Johnson said. "It'll be something I just have to fight through."






Tags: NBA Brooklyn Nets Chicago Bulls




NBA Gambling: Adjusted playoff series prices as of 4/24

04.24.2013     08:03 AM     Printer Friendly
Here are CRIS' adjusted series prices for the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Miami-Milwaukee is currently off the board because what is the point of betting $10K to win a dollar?

New York leads 2-0
Knicks -1600
Boston +800

Golden State-Denver tied 1-1
Nuggets -280
Warriors +230

Chicago-Brooklyn tied 1-1
Bulls -120
Nets +100

Los Angeles leads 2-0
Clippers -640
Grizzlies +460

Indiana leads 1-0
Pacers -850
Hawks +600

San Antonio leads 1-0
Spurs -2000
Lakers +1000

Oklahoma City leads 1-0
Thunder -4000
Rockets +1500



Tags: NBA




NBA Handicapping: Knicks, Heat, and Clippers take 2-0 series leads

04.24.2013     06:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

You regulars are familiar with the KRIB Index that we invented here in the Blog. That’s an acronym for Knicks Re-Invent Basketball, and was based on their amazing ability this year to make treys while avoiding giveaways. I won’t rehash all that because its old news by now. I bring the theme up again because those two categories are looming very large in New York’s current series with Boston.

*New York is much better than Boston from behind the arc, and already enjoys a 16-10 edge in made treys through the first two games of their series. That’s +18 points out of their +23 overall edge on the scoreboard.

*As Steve Kerr was pointing out tonight on the TNT broadcast, Boston has little chance to cash in cheap points off New York turnovers because the Knicks don’t make many. If Boston’s going to lose three’s most every game, they obviously have to make up for that with one’s and two’s if they have any hope of competing in Read more


Tags: NBA New York Knicks Los Angeles Clippers Memphis Grizzlies Miami Heat Boston Celtics Stat Intelligence



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