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NBA Gambling Trends: History points towards home teams in Game 7

06.03.2013     08:26 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
According to our database, NBA home teams in Game 7's are 22-8 SU, 19-11 ATS, and 11-19 Over/Under. We've seen only one Game 7 this postseason – Chicago won at Brooklyn, 99-93. Last year, home teams went 3-1 SU/ATS. The Miami Heat are 7-point home favorites vs. Indiana for tonight's Eastern Conference Finals Game 7.




Tags: NBA Miami Heat Indiana Pacers




NBA Betting Recap: Indiana Pacers take down Miami Heat, force Game 7

06.02.2013     07:25 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I said I wouldn’t get too wound up in a Miami Heat playoff series until they faced an elimination game. They’d shown a tendency to pace themselves all year. We learned last year that they're not necessarily vulnerable when they’re looking vulnerable.

NOW, they’re vulnerable!

They still have some margin for error because of home court advantage. And, it’s tough to expect that Dwyane Wade…and Chris Bosh…and Ray Allen will all be as worthless Monday night as they were this evening. LeBron James is very likely to get some help. If he doesn’t, then it will be the Pacers who advance to face the San Antonio Spurs. It’s a team game. LeBron and a bunch of half-hearted, shot missing, non-rebounders isn’t much of a team.

Reasons for hope for Indiana:

*The grueling pace of this series…every other day of intense physicality…may be having a much bigger impact on Bosh, Wade, and Allen than Read more



Tags: NBA Miami Heat Indiana Pacers Stat Intelligence




NBA Betting Recap: This Time, Miami Rebounds (literally)

05.31.2013     07:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Miami Heat said they’d make it a point of emphasis to prevent the Indiana Heat from owning the battle of the boards in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. They certainly did that, particularly when it came to Indiana’s penchant for offensive rebounds.

Offensive Boards

Game Four: Indiana 15, Miami 12 (Total—Indiana 49, Miami 30)

Game Five: Indiana 6, Miami 6 (Total---Indiana 33, Miami 32)

Denied second chance points (and the potential for foul calls on second chance attempts), Indiana’s scoring dropped 20 from the 99 they posted back in Game Four. Miami doesn’t have to win this stat to win the series. They just have to neutralize Indiana’s advantage. The Pacers have little chance to fully compete if they‘re NOT winning rebounding.

That can also be expressed in our “Imposing of Will” stat that showed such dominance for the Pacers in the last game. Let’s update the Read more



Tags: NBA Miami Heat Indiana Pacers Stat Intelligence




NBA Gambling Recap: Indiana Pacers rebound, tie series 2-2

05.29.2013     08:12 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Literally! Indiana won the rebounding battle 48-30, and used extended late possessions thanks to offensive rebounds to score the game winning points in the final moments.

We haven’t had a chance to talk about the “Imposing of Will” stat during this series…because Indiana’s inside defense really hadn’t been very impressive. Tonight, they held Miami to 41% on two-point baskets, while also allowing the Heat to only grab 38% of the game’s rebounds. THAT’S what we had gotten used to seeing in the Knicks series:

Imposing of Will (lower is better)

Indiana 79, Miami 119

An absolute slaughter in the stat. But, telling in its own way that Indiana was still playing a nailbiter with a couple minutes to go even with that edge in the “defense and rebounding” numbers.

Let’s check the numbers for the series. Again, this is two-point shooting percentage allowed, plus rebound percentage Read more



Tags: NBA Indiana Pacers Miami Heat Stat Intelligence




Sportsbook offers series odds on Spurs vs. Heat/Pacers NBA Finals

05.28.2013     12:37 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
According to Twitter, William Hill is offering NBA Finals series odds on both San Antonio vs. Miami and San Antonio vs. Indiana. The Heat are -270 vs. the Spurs who are +240. SA is -250 vs. the Pacers (+210). Miami owns a 2-1 series lead over Indiana heading into tonight's Game 4 matchup. San Antonio just wrapped up a four-game sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies.




Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Miami Heat Indiana Pacers




NBA Betting Recap: San Antonio Spurs sweep Memphis, advance to Finals

05.28.2013     06:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Most of the night…it felt like Memphis was ready for their summer vacation. San Antonio was in control, once again attacking weak spots when they had the ball, and denying the rim when they didn’t. But, because the Spurs haven’t quite figured out where the Memphis jugular is…a temporary lapse made it a game in the fourth quarter.

We saw something similar back in Game Two. The Spurs blew a big lead, and Memphis caught them at 85-all to force overtime. Here, the Spurs blew a big lead, and Memphis almost caught them at 89-86 with less than a minute to go. San Antonio made its free throws. Memphis never got another good look.

San Antonio 93, Memphis 86

2-Point Percentage: San Antonio 57%, Memphis 38%

3-Point Shooting: San Antonio 3/13, Memphis 5/14

Free Throws: San Antonio 12/13, Memphis 17/24

1’s and 2’s: San Antonio 84, Memphis 71

Rebounds: San Antonio 34, Memphis Read more



Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Memphis Grizzlies Stat Intelligence




NBA Betting Recap: Now THIS is the Championship Version of Miami (Plus MLB Interleague Notes)

05.27.2013     08:30 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Heat have a gear that nobody else has. They waited until Indy 500 day in Indianapolis to remind everyone of that as they raced…then coasted to a 114-96 victory to regain home court advantage with a 2-1 series lead.

The final stats don’t quite tell the story…because Miami spent most of the last nine minutes running out the clock. Let’s start with the full game boxscore…then we’ll backtrack a bit to show you what Miami was doing while sending their message.

Miami 114, Indiana 96

2-Point Percentage: Miami 57%, Indiana 36%

3-Point Shooting: Miami 6/14, Indiana 8/14

Free Throws: Miami 24/28, Indiana 30/44

1’s and 2’s: Miami 96, Indiana 72

Rebounds: Miami 36, Indiana 45

Turnovers: Miami 5, Indiana 10

Impressive enough. Indiana called a time out with 9:34 to go in the game, down 21 points at 99-78. I made a note to write down (and tweet @jefffogle) Read more



Tags: NBA MLB Miami Heat Indiana Pacers Stat Intelligence




NBA Betting Recap: San Antonio Spurs take commanding 3-0 series lead

05.26.2013     08:47 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Last night we talked about how Game Two of Indiana/Miami looked so much like Game One. Tonight, we get to do the same thing in the Western Conference finals…as Game Three in Memphis looked very much like Game Two in San Antonio.

*Home Team jumps out to big lead

*Visitor rallies

*Game goes to overtime at 85-all in G2, and 86-all in G3

*Spurs know what to do in overtime

What jumped out to me watching tonight was how Memphis WASN’T Indiana. You just didn’t see the same fire in their eyes…the same sense of urgency, even though the Grizzlies were already playing with their backs to the wall tonight while Indiana was just trying to break serve. Also, Indiana made its free throws last night, while Memphis gagged way too many with their season on the line this evening.

San Antonio 104, Memphis 93 (in overtime)

2-Point Percentage: San Antonio 55%, Memphis 40%

3-Point Shooting: San Antonio Read more



Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Memphis Grizzlies




NBA Playoff Handicapping: Betting Results Based on Referees

05.26.2013     08:22 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

Ken Mauer and Ed Malloy are the only two officials who have been paired together in every one of their playoff assignments this postseason. They have been very trendy in their 11 games posting four straight OVERS to start, then calling five consecutive UNDERS and now they're on a two-game OVER streak. Also interesting to note is the addition of Mike Callahan to today’s crew. Callahan will not be the lead referee for the first time in his nine postseason assignments. He's been more of a neutral lead ref where totals are concerned going 4-5 O/U.

NBA Playoff Betting Results w/ Referees
Date
Game
H/A
Close
SU
ATS
O/U
TP
Referees
Referees
Referees
5/18
New York
H
-8.5
L
L
O
205
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/18
Indiana
A
195
W
W
O
205
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/14
Golden State
H
-11
L
L
O
200
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/14
San Antonio
A
190
W
W
O
200
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/11
Oklahoma City
H
-2
L
L
U
168
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/11
Memphis
A
212.5
W
W
U
168
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/6
Chicago
H
187
W
W
U
179
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/6
Miami
A
-1.5
L
L
U
179
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/3
New York
H
180.5
W
W
U
168
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
B. Salvatore
5/3
Boston
A
-6.5
L
L
U
168
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
B. Salvatore
5/1
Houston
H
-1
W
W
U
207
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
B. Spooner
5/1
Oklahoma City
A
206.5
L
L
U
207
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
B. Spooner
4/28
Denver
H
211
L
L
O
216
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
L. Wood
4/28
Golden State
A
-7.5
W
W
O
216
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
L. Wood
4/26
San Antonio
H
180.5
W
W
O
209
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
L. Wood
4/26
L.A. Lakers
A
-5.5
L
L
O
209
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
L. Wood
4/24
Atlanta
H
182.5
L
L
O
211
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
S. Wright
4/24
Indiana
A
-9.5
W
W
O
211
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
S. Wright
4/20
Chicago
H
188
L
L
O
195
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
S. Wright
4/20
Brooklyn
A
-7
W
W
O
195
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
S. Wright
5/15
Chicago
A
208
L
W
U
185
M. Callahan
T. Brothers
B. Salvatore
5/15
Miami
H
-8.5
W
L
U
185
M. Callahan
T. Brothers
B. Salvatore
5/11
New York
A
183.5
L
L
U
153
M. Callahan
T. Brothers
Z. Zarba
5/11
Indiana
H
-1.5
W
W
U
153
M. Callahan
T. Brothers
Z. Zarba
5/6
Golden State
A
212
L
W
O
256
M. Callahan
T. Brothers
Z. Zarba
5/6
San Antonio
H
-3
W
L
O
256
M. Callahan
T. Brothers
Z. Zarba
5/3
Oklahoma City
A
-2.5
W
W
U
197
M. Callahan
S. Corbin
T. Washington
5/3
Houston
H
181
L
L
U
197
M. Callahan
S. Corbin
T. Washington
4/29
Chicago
A
186.5
L
L
O
201
M. Callahan
T. Washington
Z. Zarba
4/29
Brooklyn
H
-1.5
W
W
O
201
M. Callahan
T. Washington
Z. Zarba
4/27
Indiana
A
-1
L
L
U
159
M. Callahan
S. Wall
T. Washington
4/27
Atlanta
H
207
W
W
U
159
M. Callahan
S. Wall
T. Washington
4/24
L.A. Lakers
A
180
L
L
O
193
M. Callahan
D. Guthrie
T. Washington
4/24
San Antonio
H
-6.5
W
W
O
193
M. Callahan
D. Guthrie
T. Washington
4/22
Memphis
A
183
L
W
O
184
M. Callahan
D. Guthrie
T. Washington
4/22
L.A. Clippers
H
-7
W
L
O
184
M. Callahan
D. Guthrie
T. Washington
4/20
Golden State
A
181.5
L
W
U
192
M. Callahan
D. Guthrie
T. Washington
4/20
Denver
H
-5.5
W
L
U
192
M. Callahan
D. Guthrie
T. Washington





Tags: NBA




NBA Betting Recap: Indiana Pacers even up series (plus MLB notes)

05.25.2013     07:47 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

If home court advantage is worth anything, then the Indiana Pacers have been the better team in BOTH of the games played so far in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Now…home court may end up not meaning much of anything in this series when it’s all said and done. The overall median for the playoffs is still at just two points. And, Miami is known for being very strong on the road. We may be looking at a series of virtual coin flips, with neither team being shaken by the opposing crowd. The near equivalent of a best-of-seven on neutral courts.

Miami better HOPE that’s the case. Because Indiana has been GREAT at home in the playoffs! I’m not going to fall into last year’s trap of making assumptions early in this matchup. We’ve talked about this a lot already. Miami teases you, then breaks your heart if you’re rooting for them to lose.

Let’s run the numbers from Friday night, then review the categories that have been the Read more



Tags: NBA MLB Indiana Pacers Miami Heat Stat Intelligence



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