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NBA Postseason Betting Recap: Heat and Warriors bounce back strong

05.09.2013     07:49 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Golden State got off the mat from Monday night’s gut punch with a fury...as they dominated the first half on the way to a 9-point road win. Miami reminded everyone why they’re favorites to go the distance, routing Chicago by 37 (and it could have been worse).

Numbers and notes…starting with the more compelling of the two…

Golden State 100, San Antonio 91

2-Point Percentage: Golden State 44%, San Antonio 44%

3-Point Shooting: Golden State 11/23, San Antonio 5/21

Free Throws: Golden State 13/20, San Antonio 16/24

1’s and 2’s: Golden State 67, San Antonio 76

Rebounds: Golden State 50, San Antonio 48

Turnovers: Golden State 9, San Antonio 10

It’s tempting to say that Golden State learned a lesson about protecting a second half lead. But, you know what? They were outscored 48-38 in the second half. They had a LOUSY second half, lowlighted by only 17 points in Read more



Tags: NBA Stat Intelligence Golden State Warriors Miami Heat Chicago Bulls San Antonio Spurs




NBA Gambling: Home Court Advantage in the Playoffs

05.08.2013     12:27 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’ve heard a few people talking about the value of home court advantage in the playoffs over the past few days. I haven’t heard anybody talking about the actual numbers from this year! Figured I should rectify that.

Through the Tuesday night doubleheader that just ended in Oklahoma City, we have the following results through 51 postseason games. Note that I’m counting all overtime games as net zero at the end of regulation. So, technically, these are the numbers through the first 48 minutes of all 51 postseason games.

The “average” game has been a win of 3.63 points by the home team

The “median” result has been a win of 2 points by the home team

I had been estimating about 4 points for market value based on the prices we’ve been seeing thus far. That average of 3.63 isn’t far off from that. But, it’s VERY important that the median is only two. We’re seeing a lot of blowouts that are skewing the Read more



Tags: NBA Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Chicago Bulls outplay Miami Heat

05.07.2013     01:39 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
To call the Heat prohibitive favorites in their series against the Bulls is something of an understatement!  Miami was a 12.5- or 13-point favorite by tip-off against Chicago for Game 1, the single highest pointspread of the second round by a fairly wide margin.  For the series, the Heat opened as 1:50 favorites offshore and 1:30 favorites here in Vegas (laying $30 or $50 to win a single dollar).  Even after their Game 1 loss, the Heat are still 1:9 chalk to win the series; a true rarity when it comes to series prices for teams trailing 1-0 having already lost their home court advantage.

Games aren’t played on paper, and despite Miami’s enormous perceived advantage, they were clearly not the better team in the series opener on Monday Night.  Some of that was simply rust off following a week long layoff.  San Antonio – the other team that swept their first round series, then sat around waiting for the second round – was comparably flat.  But unlike Miami, San Antonio saved their best ball for crunch time of the fourth quarter, whereas the Heat looked gassed and shocked when Chicago scored the final ten points of the Read more



Tags: NBA Chicago Bulls Miami Heat Teddy Covers




NBA Betting Recap: A look back at the in-game lines during Golden State-San Antonio Game 1

05.07.2013     07:35 AM     Printer Friendly
Last night's Golden State-San Antonio game can be best described as ridiculous. And if you were involved in any in-game wagering, no matter what the side, you probably experienced more than a few emotional highs and lows. Here's a quick rundown of Pinnacle's in-game lines – typically posted during timeouts and at the start of each quarter.

Start of game
San Antonio -9
San Antonio -7
San Antonio -6
San Antonio -6.5
San Antonio -5
San Antonio -3.5
San Antonio -4
San Antonio -4.5
Golden State pk
Golden State -6
Golden State -7
Golden State -7.5
Golden State -11.5
Golden State -10
Golden State -7
Golden State pk-420
San Antonio -2.5
San Antonio pk-400
San Antonio -2.5
San Antonio -2
Final Score: San Antonio 129, Golden State 127 2OT




Tags: NBA Golden State Warriors San Antonio Spurs




NBA Playoff Betting Recap: Chicago Bulls stun Miami Heat in Game 1

05.07.2013     07:25 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Today was the day for my annual eye check. Which, apparently, I only do once every five years because I had fallen out of their records at the doctor’s office. Given the goop they drop in, and the stuff they do to confirm that you’re getting older, things were still a little bit blurred and streaky tonight. And, THEN the Chicago/Miami game Monday night turned into something where you couldn’t believe your eyes…

Chicago 93, Miami 86

2-Point Percentage: Chicago 45%, Miami 44%

3-Point Shooting: Chicago 7/18, Miami 7/24

Free Throws: Chicago 24/29, Miami 17/25

1’s and 2’s: Chicago 72, Miami 65

Rebounds: Chicago 46, Miami 32

Turnovers: Chicago 15, Miami 8

Great to see Chicago’s passion and intensity continue. It’s very easy to lose a step after climbing a mountain. Chicago climbed a bigger mountain! At least for one night.

You know…we’ve seen Miami Read more



Tags: NBA Chicago Bulls Miami Heat Stat Intelligence




NBA Playoff Gambling: Bettors side with Heat and Spurs-Warriors OVER

05.06.2013     02:34 PM     Printer Friendly
Here are the consensus bets for tonight’s NBA Playoff Games courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given wager.

Sides
Miami -12 - 67.8%
Golden State +9 - 56.7%

Totals
Golden State-San Antonio OVER 203.5 - 79.8%
Chicago-Miami OVER 188.5 - 64.7%

Moneyline
Golden State +425 - 62.7%
Miami -1200 - 60.3%





Tags: NBA




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Durant leads OKC past Memphis in Game 1

05.06.2013     11:48 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Coming into the playoffs, the odds that backup OKC point guard Derek Fisher would be a defensive difference maker were somewhere between slim and none.   Then Russell Westbrook suffered a season ending injury.  Reggie Jackson, the second year point guard out of Boston College who averaged just 14 minutes of playing time during the regular season, has been promoted to the starting spot.  Fisher, who didn’t even sign with the Thunder until after the All-Star break, got a steady dose of garbage time minutes down the stretch.  He closed out his 24 game regular season stint with OKC averaging just 4.1 points on 33% shooting and 0.7 assists per game.

Fisher’s playoff history is truly a special one, highlighted by his infamous Game 5 buzzer beating three-pointer at San Antonio in Game 5 of the 2004 Western Conference Finals.  That shot is just one of quite literally dozens of huge makes from Fisher from a career that dates all the way back to 1996.  And Fisher hit a pair of impact three pointers in Game 1 against Memphis as well.  But the biggest clutch contribution from a guy with five championship rings on his fingers came Read more



Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder Memphis Grizzlies Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Indiana takes 1-0 lead over New York

05.06.2013     11:42 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
While Game 1 went flying Over the total by 15 points, the truth of the matter is that New York is struggling mightily on the offensive end of the court these days.  They didn’t score more than 90 points in any of their games against the Celtics; the longest streak to start the playoffs since the shot clock came into play in the 1954-55 season.  As a result, since taking a 3-0 series lead against Boston, New York has lost three of their last four in straight up fashion despite being favored in all four games.

Health matters as much or more than any other factor at this time of the year, and the aging Knicks are struggling in that department as well.  Carmelo Anthony’s left shoulder is getting worse, not better after popping out of the socket during the Boston series.  Defensive mainstay Tyson Chandler isn’t anywhere near 100%.  Amare Stoudamire isn’t back in the lineup yet, although he could be before this series is through.  Steve Novak’s balky back is keeping him out of action as well.

New York earned the #2 seed in the East behind Miami because they were a solid defensive team, hit a boatload of three Read more



Tags: NBA New York Knicks Indiana Pacers Teddy Covers




NBA Playoff Betting Recap: Pacers and Thunder take 1-0 series leads

05.06.2013     07:08 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I didn’t get a chance to re-post the regular season statlines before Round Two got started Sunday in the NBA Playoffs. Let’s do a combination report that features those, plus the afternoon boxscores from the first two games of the league quarterfinals.

Let’s start in the East. The format we used during March Madness that helped paint such a good picture for us involved the following stats:

Two-Point Defense

Rebound Differential

Turnover Differential

Made Treys per Game

Pace Ranking

If you believe “defense and rebounding wins championships,” we have those numbers. If you believe that “you have to avoid turnovers” is important when championships are on the line, we have that. If you believe that three-point production is revolutionizing the game, that’s covered. If you believe that playing at your preferred pace while forcing your opponent out of their comfort zone is a hidden key to postseason Read more



Tags: NBA Indiana Pacers New York Knicks Oklahoma City Thunder Memphis Grizzlies Stat Intelligence




NBA Handicapping: Estimated Market Power Ratings for Conference Semifinals

05.05.2013     07:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

We have numbers up in the markets for three of the four second round series. I’ll drop in an estimate for Miami and Chicago. Then we’ll tweak that as needed. I think the market is using 4 points for home court advantage to this point through the playoffs…so I’ll use that as a guideline.

88: Miami

85: San Antonio

84: Memphis

83: New York, Oklahoma City

82: Indiana

81: Golden State

80: Chicago with Deng and Hinrich

78: Chicago without Deng and Hinrich

I have to say I was very surprised when San Antonio opened up around -8 or -8.5 vs. Golden State. I don’t think the Spurs are suddenly chasing down Miami just because they swept the shorthanded Lakers. I don’t think Golden State is light years behind the rest of the West either. We’ll see. I’ve used 85 and 81 as a starting point. Maybe the Golden State media is right that this is a much worse matchup talent-wise for Read more



Tags: NBA Stat Intelligence



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