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NBA Betting Recap: San Antonio Spurs take commanding 3-0 series lead
05.26.2013 08:47 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
Last night we talked about how Game Two of Indiana/Miami looked so much like Game One. Tonight, we get to do the same thing in the Western Conference finals…as Game Three in Memphis looked very much like Game Two in San Antonio.
*Home Team jumps out to big lead
*Visitor rallies
*Game goes to overtime at 85-all in G2, and 86-all in G3
*Spurs know what to do in overtime
What jumped out to me watching tonight was how Memphis WASN’T Indiana. You just didn’t see the same fire in their eyes…the same sense of urgency, even though the Grizzlies were already playing with their backs to the wall tonight while Indiana was just trying to break serve. Also, Indiana made its free throws last night, while Memphis gagged way too many with their season on the line this evening.
San Antonio 104, Memphis 93 (in overtime)
2-Point Percentage: San Antonio 55%, Memphis 40%
3-Point Shooting: San Antonio
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Tags:
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
Memphis Grizzlies
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NBA Playoff Handicapping: Betting Results Based on Referees
05.26.2013 08:22 AM
Rob Veno
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno
Ken Mauer and Ed Malloy are the only two officials who have been paired together in every one of their playoff assignments this postseason. They have been very trendy in their 11 games posting four straight OVERS to start, then calling five consecutive UNDERS and now they're on a two-game OVER streak. Also interesting to note is the addition of Mike Callahan to today’s crew. Callahan will not be the lead referee for the first time in his nine postseason assignments. He's been more of a neutral lead ref where totals are concerned going 4-5 O/U.
NBA Playoff Betting Results w/ Referees
Date
Game
H/A
Close
SU
ATS
O/U
TP
Referees
Referees
Referees
5/18
New York
H
-8.5
L
L
O
205
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/18
Indiana
A
195
W
W
O
205
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/14
Golden State
H
-11
L
L
O
200
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/14
San Antonio
A
190
W
W
O
200
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/11
Oklahoma City
H
-2
L
L
U
168
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/11
Memphis
A
212.5
W
W
U
168
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/6
Chicago
H
187
W
W
U
179
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/6
Miami
A
-1.5
L
L
U
179
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/3
New York
H
180.5
W
W
U
168
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
B. Salvatore
5/3
Boston
A
-6.5
L
L
U
168
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
B. Salvatore
5/1
Houston
H
-1
W
W
U
207
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
B. Spooner
5/1
Oklahoma City
A
206.5
L
L
U
207
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
B. Spooner
4/28
Denver
H
211
L
L
O
216
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
L. Wood
4/28
Golden State
A
-7.5
W
W
O
216
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
L. Wood
4/26
San Antonio
H
180.5
W
W
O
209
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
L. Wood
4/26
L.A. Lakers
A
-5.5
L
L
O
209
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
L. Wood
4/24
Atlanta
H
182.5
L
L
O
211
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
S. Wright
4/24
Indiana
A
-9.5
W
W
O
211
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
S. Wright
4/20
Chicago
H
188
L
L
O
195
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
S. Wright
4/20
Brooklyn
A
-7
W
W
O
195
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
S. Wright
5/15
Chicago
A
208
L
W
U
185
M. Callahan
T. Brothers
B. Salvatore
5/15
Miami
H
-8.5
W
L
U
185
M. Callahan
T. Brothers
B. Salvatore
5/11
New York
A
183.5
L
L
U
153
M. Callahan
T. Brothers
Z. Zarba
5/11
Indiana
H
-1.5
W
W
U
153
M. Callahan
T. Brothers
Z. Zarba
5/6
Golden State
A
212
L
W
O
256
M. Callahan
T. Brothers
Z. Zarba
5/6
San Antonio
H
-3
W
L
O
256
M. Callahan
T. Brothers
Z. Zarba
5/3
Oklahoma City
A
-2.5
W
W
U
197
M. Callahan
S. Corbin
T. Washington
5/3
Houston
H
181
L
L
U
197
M. Callahan
S. Corbin
T. Washington
4/29
Chicago
A
186.5
L
L
O
201
M. Callahan
T. Washington
Z. Zarba
4/29
Brooklyn
H
-1.5
W
W
O
201
M. Callahan
T. Washington
Z. Zarba
4/27
Indiana
A
-1
L
L
U
159
M. Callahan
S. Wall
T. Washington
4/27
Atlanta
H
207
W
W
U
159
M. Callahan
S. Wall
T. Washington
4/24
L.A. Lakers
A
180
L
L
O
193
M. Callahan
D. Guthrie
T. Washington
4/24
San Antonio
H
-6.5
W
W
O
193
M. Callahan
D. Guthrie
T. Washington
4/22
Memphis
A
183
L
W
O
184
M. Callahan
D. Guthrie
T. Washington
4/22
L.A. Clippers
H
-7
W
L
O
184
M. Callahan
D. Guthrie
T. Washington
4/20
Golden State
A
181.5
L
W
U
192
M. Callahan
D. Guthrie
T. Washington
4/20
Denver
H
-5.5
W
L
U
192
M. Callahan
D. Guthrie
T. Washington
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NBA Betting Recap: Indiana Pacers even up series (plus MLB notes)
05.25.2013 07:47 AM
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Stat Intelligence
If home court advantage is worth anything, then the Indiana Pacers have been the better team in BOTH of the games played so far in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Now…home court may end up not meaning much of anything in this series when it’s all said and done. The overall median for the playoffs is still at just two points. And, Miami is known for being very strong on the road. We may be looking at a series of virtual coin flips, with neither team being shaken by the opposing crowd. The near equivalent of a best-of-seven on neutral courts.
Miami better HOPE that’s the case. Because Indiana has been GREAT at home in the playoffs! I’m not going to fall into last year’s trap of making assumptions early in this matchup. We’ve talked about this a lot already. Miami teases you, then breaks your heart if you’re rooting for them to lose.
Let’s run the numbers from Friday night, then review the categories that have been the
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NBA Gambling: Bettors lean with road underdogs, Pacers and Spurs
05.24.2013 11:59 AM
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Here are the consensus bets for tonight and Saturday's NBA Playoff Games courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given wager.
Sides
Indiana +7.5 - 58.7%
San Antonio +5.5 - 53.3%
Moneyline
Indiana +315 - 64.1%
San Antonio +200/Memphis -240 - 50%
Totals
Indiana-Miami OVER 182 - 76.3%
San Antonio-Memphis OVER 177.5 - 61.2%
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San Antonio Spurs
Miami Heat
Indiana Pacers
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NBA Betting Trends: Markets prefer to bet postseason games UNDER the total
05.23.2013 01:38 PM
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A look back at the NBA totals market over the last two rounds of the playoffs. The results are dead even at 12-12-1 over/under with two games going under in regulation but over as a result of overtime. Of the 25 games, 17 were bet under the total based on CRIS’s opening and closing lines.
Indiana at Miami - 5/22
Opener: 183.5
Closer: 181.5
Result: OVER
Memphis at San Antonio - 5/21
Opener: 184
Closer: 181.5
Result: OVER (Under in regulation)
Memphis at San Antonio - 5/19
Opener: 184
Closer: 181.5
Result: OVER
Indiana at New York - 5/18
Opener: 178
Closer: 179
Result: OVER
Indiana at New York - 5/16
Opener: 179
Closer: 182
Result: UNDER
San Antonio at Golden State - 5/16
Opener: 196
Closer: 194.5
Result: UNDER
Chicago at Miami - 5/15
Opener: 183
Closer: 182
Result: OVER
Memphis at Oklahoma City - 5/15
Opener: 185
Closer: 185.5
Result:
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NBA Betting Recap: Miami Heat pull off Game 1 overtime thriller over Indiana Pacers
05.23.2013 08:28 AM
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Stat Intelligence
I’m not even going to try to describe the last few minutes of regulation, or the last 10 seconds of overtime. If you watched, you saw the thrills and spills. If you didn’t, you’re not an NBA fan anyway.
Miami 103, Indiana 102 (OT)
2-Point Percentage: Indiana 48%, Miami 53%
3-Point Shooting: Indiana 4/14, Miami 5/18
Free Throws: Indiana 24/32, Miami 16/25
1’s and 2’s: Indiana 90, Miami 88
Rebounds: Indiana 43, Miami 38
Turnovers: Indiana 20, Miami 20
Whoever lost was going to be heartbroken. Whoever lost was going to have 20 turnovers! Amazing that the game winner also had 20. There was a lot for grouches to complain about here. And, if Lebron James is going to spend the rest of the playoffs whining about calls he’s not getting…then there may not be much for the public to hang its hat on.
*Tough to root for the heavy favorite, particularly when
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NBA Gambling: Bettors fairly even on Pacers-Heat Game 1 opinion
05.22.2013 02:03 PM
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Here are the consensus bets for tonight’s Game 1 of Eastern Conference Finals between the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given wager. CRIS opened the game Miami -8.5 with a total of 183.5. The line dropped to -7.5 at a few shops (most notably Grande) before settling back at -8. Vegas residents can still get the Pacers +8.5 at Coasts. The total was bet down to 182 (181.5 at Pinnacle, 183 at South Point). Miami is -750 to win the series; Indiana +550.
Side
Miami -8 - 53.7%
Moneyline
Miami -425 - 51.3%
Total
Indiana-Miami OVER 182 - 59.8%
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NBA Handicapping: Statline Data for Indiana-Miami series
05.22.2013 08:11 AM
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Stat Intelligence
Here are the numbers for the Eastern Conference finals, using the data that’s helped us throughout the college and NBA postseasons. If you’re new to the blog, there are regular season numbers in:
*Two-Point Defense
*Rebounding Differential
*Turnover Differential
*Made Treys per Game
*Ranking in Pace
This helps paint a picture for how the games are likely to play out given the strengths, weaknesses, and preferences of each team. Conference seedings are in parenthesis…
(3) Indiana: 44% two-point defense, +5.0 rebounding, -1.6 TO’S, 6.9 treys, #25 full season pace
(1) Miami: 47% two-point defense, -1.5 rebounding, +1.7 TO’S, 8.7 treys, #23 full season pace
Indiana was fantastic inside the arc defensively. A lot of very good teams were right at 47%, so that’s kind of off-the charts in a stat category that’s usually lumped together very tight. Indiana has a huge edge in
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Betting odds on who will win the 2013 NBA Lottery
05.21.2013 06:29 AM
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The NBA Lottery will be selected tonight followed by the actual draft on June 27. The lottery is weighted, giving more "chances" for the weaker teams to earn a higher draft spot. But despite the favorable odds, teams with the worst record have won the lottery only three times since 1990 – Orlando was the last team in 2004. If you like betting on events like these, The Greek posted odds on who will win the lottery. We broke down the moneyline, the odds percentage of the moneyline and actual percentage based on the NBA's sliding scale. Since Orlando's "win" in 2004, the following worst records have won the lottery: 6th-worst, 5th, 6th, 9th, 2nd, 5th, 8th, and 3rd (tie).
2013 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
Team
Odds
Odds Pct.
Actual Pct.
Orlando Magic
+175
36.36%
25.00%
Charlotte Bobcats
+200
33.33%
19.90%
Cleveland Cavaliers
+350
22.22%
15.60%
Phoenix Suns
+650
13.30%
11.90%
New Orleans Pelicans
+1000
9.09%
8.80%
Sacramento Kings
+1200
7.69%
6.30%
Detroit Pistons
+1500
6.25%
4.30%
Washington Wizards
+1800
5.26%
2.80%
Minnesota Timberwolves
+3000
3.22%
1.70%
Portland Trailblazers
+3500
2.77%
1.10%
Oklahoma City Thunder (Via Toronto)
+5000
1.96%
0.80%
Philadelphia 76ers
+5000
1.96%
0.70%
Dallas Mavericks
+6500
1.51%
0.60%
Utah Jazz
+8000
1.23%
0.50%
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NBA Betting Recap: San Antonio Spurs bomb from deep, take 1-0 series lead
05.20.2013 08:36 AM
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Even when I was thinking the Spurs would need to shoot treys like the Knicks if they wanted to beat Memphis, I hadn’t imagined THIS for the start of the Western Conference Finals.
Three-Pointers: Memphis 5 of 12, San Antonio 14 of 29
That’s +9 in makes, which is +27 on the scoreboard, in a game the Spurs won by 22.
Don’t want to get too cute here. We had the KRIB Index for the Knicks when they were making a lot of treys while not turning the ball over (Knicks Re-Invent Basketball). San Antonio was actually +3 in that differential today. SPARE-RIB? SPurs ARE Re-Inventing Basketball? Nah.
And, besides, this kind of ball movement and brains is something we’ve associated with San Antonio for years. It’s important to remember that we were all associating it with them last year at this time, just as they were jumping ahead of Oklahoma City 2-0 before losing four straight. San Antonio plays a beautiful game…which is art when
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