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NBA Handicapping: 2013-14 Regular Season Over/Under Wins

10.28.2013     08:00 AM     Printer Friendly
Below is a chart of this year's NBA Regular Season Over/Under wins courtesy of Bookmaker. We included 2012's record, the percentage of bets on a particular side (ex. 81.8% of bets were on Atlanta OVER 39.5), and the differential between last year's wins and this year's numbers.

Biggest Gainers
Cleveland +15
New Orleans +13.5
Chicago +13
Detroit +11
Washington +10.5

Biggest Decliners
Utah -18
Philadelphia -17
Boston -13
Denver -11
Milwaukee -10.5

2013 NBA Regular Season Over/Under Wins
Team
2012 Record
2013 O/U
Bookmaker %
Diff
Atlanta
44-38
39.5un-121
81.8% OVER
-4.5
Boston
41-40
28
71.2% UNDER
-13
Brooklyn
49-33
52.5
95.1% OVER
+3.5
Charlotte
21-61
26.5
80.0% OVER
+5.5
Chicago
45-37
58un-133
64.8% UNDER
+13
Cleveland
24-58
39
84.8% OVER
+15
Dallas
41-41
45un-133
71.9% UNDER
+4
Denver
57-25
46
83.0% UNDER
-11
Detroit
29-53
40ov-115
87.1% OVER
+11
Golden State
47-35
51.5
64.3% UNDER
+4.5
Houston
45-37
55
70.6% UNDER
+10
Indiana
49-32
55.5
71.4% UNDER
+6.5
LA Clippers
56-26
55.5
96.6% OVER
-0.5
Memphis
56-26
51.5
81.0% UNDER
-4.5
Miami
66-16
61.5
76.1% UNDER
-4.5
Milwaukee
38-44
27.5
89.7% OVER
-10.5
Minnesota
31-51
40ov-121
95.8% OVER
+9
New Orleans
27-55
40.5un-121
73.7% UNDER
+13.5
New York
54-28
49.5un-126
98.6% UNDER
-4.5
Oklahoma City
60-22
55un-122
71.2% UNDER
-5
Orlando
20-62
22.5ov-121
87.0% OVER
+2.5
Philadelphia
34-48
17un-121
75.8% UNDER
-17
Phoenix
25-57
19.5un-115
73.1% OVER
-5.5
Portland
33-49
38ov-120
91.7% OVER
+5
Sacramento
28-54
31ov-115
68.3% OVER
+3
San Antonio
58-24
55.5
66.7% UNDER
-2.5
Toronto
34-48
36.5ov-121
82.1% OVER
+2.5
Utah
43-39
25
93.2% OVER
-18
Washington
29-53
39.5ov-133
93.0% OVER
+10.5





Tags: NBA




NBA Handicapping: LVH posts Regular Season Over/Under Numbers

10.09.2013     08:24 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Earlier this month, the LVH sportsbook posted NBA Regular Season Over/Under numbers. The Miami Heat are lined at 60, followed by the Los Angeles Clippers (57), Chicago Bulls (56.5), and San Antonio Spurs (55.5). At the bottom of the list are the Philadelphia 76ers (16.5), Phoenix Suns (21.5) and Orlando Magic (24.5). For a listing of all 30 teams, click here




Tags: NBA




The one about the New York Knicks, copious amounts of coke, and point shaving

09.16.2013     06:58 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
If you lived in New York City during the 80's there's a good chance you either used coke or knew someone who did. But what's interesting is that the dude providing you or your acquaintance with recreational drugs may have also been a big sports bettor. The type of drug dealer/sports bettor who supplied the local NBA team with product and “suggestions” on how to get said product at a discounted rate.


“Over . . . the last two months, all three [players] have given . . . tips on when to bet the Knicks to lose. This has occurred seven times and six of the tips were good,” according to FBI files citing two unnamed “sources.”

“So many people say it’s impossible to fix a game because guys are paid so much money,” Tuohy told The Post. “But you can see how easily they can get hooked on some drug, be gambling themselves and get in deep with a bookie.”







Tags: NBA New York Knicks




In Stat Evaluations, Be a Judge, Not a Lawyer

06.30.2013     07:48 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’ve touched on this periodically over the years, often in throwaway comments when I’m whining about something I just saw or read. I was thinking it was time to go into the topic again because we have so many new readers thanks to twitter (@jefffogle) and word-of-mouth. Then, a PERFECT example jumped out at me in something I was reading at Grantland.

There’s an article up this weekend about the Philadelphia 76ers. Author Ben Detrick said this about the role new general manager Sam Hinkie might have played in the development of point guard Jrue Holiday:

“When Hinkie took the reins, some thought he could help transform Holiday into the Sixers’ version of James Harden. Both are big guards with lightning-quick first steps, equally capable Read more



Tags: NBA Philadelphia 76ers Stat Intelligence




NBA Gambling News: LeBron and the Heat +250 to win next year's title

06.21.2013     11:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Everyone's favorite stat nerd Nate Silver says LeBron James has two more NBA Championships left in him. And not even 24 hour removed from their second straight title, the Miami Heat are even money to win the Eastern Conference and +250 to three-peat according to The Greek.


What seems safe to say is that you wouldn’t want to bet on James at even money. There are just too many things that can go wrong with a player’s career as he ages: injury or illness, early retirement, bad teammates or bad luck.

Even a team as strong as this year’s Heat began the season with only about a 30 percent chance of winning the title, according to the Las Vegas odds. That percentage happens to roughly match the historical likelihood of an N.B.A. team repeating as champion, which is 33 percent.






Tags: NBA Miami Heat




NBA Finals Betting Recap: After an Unforgettable Seven Games...It's Miami!

06.21.2013     08:18 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Amazing game. Amazing series. A night and a fortnight that sports fans will be talking about for many years to come. If you’re young…you’ll talk about this series the way your elders talk about the Jordan years…or Bird/Magic. If you’re older, it was great to relive the very best this league has to offer.

Spurs fans are crushed, but proud. Heat fans are jubilant. Basketball lovers know they just experienced something very special.

The final numbers from Game Seven…

Miami 95, San Antonio 87

2-Point Percentage: San Antonio 40%, Miami 48%

3-Point Shooting: San Antonio 6/19, Miami 12/32

Free Throws: San Antonio 20/22, Miami 11/16

1’s and 2’s: San Antonio 70, Miami 59

Rebounds: San Antonio 43, Miami 43

Turnovers: San Antonio 14, Miami 14

These teams were so evenly matched top to bottom. You could make a pretty good case that it boiled down Read more



Tags: NBA Miami Heat San Antonio Spurs Stat Intelligence




NBA Finals Gambling: Over 70% of bettors side with underdog Spurs for Game 7

06.20.2013     12:01 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
San Antonio at Miami -5.5 O/U 188

Here are the consensus bets for tonight's Game 7 of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given wager.

Side
San Antonio +6 (+5.5 at most offshore shops) - 71.0%

Total
San Antonio-Miami OVER 189 - 56.6%

Moneyline
San Antonio +210 - 81.6%




Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Miami Heat




NBA Finals Handicapping: History hasn't been kind to Game 7 road teams

06.19.2013     11:47 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
San Antonio at Miami -6 O/U 189.5

A couple of database numbers to considering for Thursday's NBA Finals Game 7 between the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat. Home teams are 23-8 SU and 20-11 ATS in postseason Game 7's. Totals in those games were 11-20 O/U. Since 2004, there have been two Game 7's in the finals: San Antonio won and covered vs. Detroit in 2004 and the LA Lakers won but failed to cover vs. Boston in 2009. Both games went under the total. The last road team to win a Game 7 in the NBA Finals straight up was the Washington Bullets in 1978.




Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Miami Heat




NBA Finals Betting Recap: Spurs Can't Hold 5-Point Lead with Under 25 Seconds Left

06.19.2013     07:58 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It was there for the taking. San Antonio had a 13-point lead late in the third quarter…a 10-point lead to start the fourth quarter…and, after rallying from a late collapse, a 5-point lead with just under 25 seconds left. There was no trophy ceremony. Miami forced overtime, then won the extra period to force a Game Seven finale Thursday Night.

If you watched, you’re as spent as I am…and there’s really not much more to add to what everyone has been saying in the twitterverse. Let’s see what the final numbers looked like…

Miami 103, San Antonio 100 (in overtime)

2-Point Percentage: San Antonio 48%, Miami 44%

3-Point Shooting: San Antonio 5/18, Miami 11/19

Free Throws: San Antonio 21/28, Miami 16/21

1’s and 2’s: San Antonio 85, Miami 70

Rebounds: San Antonio 45, Miami 42

Turnovers: San Antonio 13, Miami 15

Tim Duncan had a HUGE first three Read more



Tags: NBA Miami Heat San Antonio Spurs Stat Intelligence




NBA Finals Gambling: Bettors prefer Miami Heat and OVER for Game 6

06.18.2013     12:44 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
San Antonio at Miami -6.5 O/U 191

Here are the consensus bets for tonight's Game 6 of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given wager.

Side
Miami -6.5 - 57.5%

Total
San Antonio-Miami OVER 191 - 56.6%

Moneyline
San Antonio +245 - 69.0%

 




Tags: NBA Miami Heat San Antonio Spurs



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