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February

6

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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Breaking down the NBA's Final Four

05.20.2013     08:26 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Only four teams remain standing in the NBA Playoffs; one of whom will bring home the title less than a month from now.  With both Conference Finals getting underway, I’ll take a look at the two series, looking for hidden nuggets pointing towards future pointspreads success.
There’s no question that predicting series success correlates strongly with predicting pointspread success when it comes to the NBA Playoffs.  This year’s results stand out in that regard.  In the West, Memphis went 10-1 ATS through the first two rounds of the playoffs.  San Antonio covered the spread in seven out of ten through the first two rounds. 

In the East, Indiana went 8-4 ATS, including a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS mark at home in Indianapolis; five of those six wins coming by a double-digit margin.  And the defending champion and prohibitive favorite to win the title, Miami, despite their public nature, has gone 6-3 ATS in their first two series, including a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS mark on the highway – the mark of a strong, veteran championship contender.

When we add it up, we’re talking about 67% or better ATS results here Read more



Tags: NBA Memphis Grizzlies San Antonio Spurs Miami Heat Indiana Pacers Teddy Covers




NBA Handicapping: Memphis vs. San Antonio Statline Preview

05.19.2013     08:10 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

A new series starts Sunday. Let’s review regular season performance in the stat categories we’ve been studying in in the college and pro postseasons. Note that these are regular season only numbers. Prefer using an 82-game sample with similar strengths of schedule. Then we can pencil in what we’ve learned so far in the playoffs if need be.

(5) Memphis: 47% two-point defense, +3.7 rebounding, +1.5 TO’S, 4.7 treys, #29 full season pace

(2) S. Antonio: 47% two-point defense, +1.2 rebounding, +0.2 TO’S, 8.1 treys, #6 full season pace

Pretty clear differences there once you get past two-point defense. And, the whole world was at 47% in that category anyway if you’ll recall from our first round previews!

MEMPHIS is the “defense and rebounding wins championships” team, with a huge edge on the glass, and a proven ability to force a lot of turnovers. During the regular season we encouraged you to think of them as the Read more



Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Memphis Grizzlies Stat Intelligence




NBA Betting Recap: Memphis and Miami headed to Conference Finals

05.16.2013     06:31 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Though there’s still a lot of basketball left to be played…there’s already a rumbling that the Memphis Grizzlies and Miami Heat are on a collision course for the NBA Finals. Both wrapped up their second round series in five games Wednesday Night. 

Memphis 88, Oklahoma City 84

2-Point Percentage: Memphis 40%, Oklahoma City 42%

3-Point Shooting: Memphis 3/14, Oklahoma City 6/25

Free Throws: Memphis 25/29, Oklahoma City 16/21

1’s and 2’s: Memphis 79, Oklahoma City 66

Rebounds: Memphis 45, Oklahoma City 44

Turnovers: Memphis 9, Oklahoma City 14

Memphis blew a big lead…then blew a big lead AGAIN before frantically holding on in the final moments. Kevin Durant of OKC stayed out of gas…only shooting 5 of 21 on the evening. I’m hoping statheads who generally decry “inventing a narrative” are learning to think a bit more about that. If you’re really Read more



Tags: NBA Miami Heat Memphis Grizzlies Stat Intelligence




NBA Betting Recap: Spurs up 3-2 after wearing down Warriors

05.15.2013     08:17 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It’s always dangerous to think that you’ve seen a team officially run out of gas. Golden State is a young group that could find another wind at home in front of a loud crowd Thursday night. And, there’s an extra day off waiting afterward because Game Seven wouldn’t be until Sunday.

Unfortunately, if you’re a Warriors fan:

*Golden State couldn’t win in regulation in the first two games at home

*Steph Curry looks utterly wiped out

*Andrew Bogut seems to be wearing down

*You’re not going to win two-in-a-row from the Spurs without Curry and Bogut in leadership positions

The stage is set for a potential Warriors rally because of that extra day off. The team will have a lot of days off if Curry and Bogut can’t rejuvenate by Thursday.

San Antonio 109, Golden State 91

2-Point Percentage: Golden State 49%, San Antonio 54%

3-Point Shooting: Golden State Read more



Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Golden State Warriors Stat Intelligence




NBA Betting Recap: Indiana Pacers dominate glass, take 3-1 series lead over Knicks

05.15.2013     08:08 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I doubt there’s any basketball fan or bettor who expected the Indiana Pacers to have made more treys than the New York Knicks through four games of their second round NBA Playoff series. Even the most optimistic Pacers fans, or confident Pacers bettors would have conceded that category to the Knicks. In the regular season, Indiana averaged 6.9 made treys per game while the Knicks were way up at 10.9.

Yet…
 Made Treys Thru 4 Games

New York: 28

Indiana: 34

Indiana was going to own the inside game. New York needed to make up for that with long range shooting. Instead, Indiana’s been even more dominant than expected inside the arc…while also winning treys.

You regulars know about our “Imposing of Will” stat. No surprise that tonight was another slaughter. You might be surprised to learn Tuesday’s game was actually Indiana’s best performance of the series in two-point shooting allowed plus Read more



Tags: NBA New York Knicks Indiana Pacers Stat Intelligence




NBA Playoff Handicapping: Bettors lined up on both road underdogs

05.14.2013     11:40 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are the consensus bets for tonight’s two NBA Playoff Games courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given wager.

Sides
Golden State +7 - 67.1%
New York +5.5 - 58.0%

Totals
New York-Indiana OVER 180 - 60.4%
Golden State-San Antonio 195 - 50%

Moneyline
Golden State +270 - 78.4%
New York +190 - 70.8%




Tags: NBA New York Knicks Indiana Pacers San Antonio Spurs Golden State Warriors




NBA Betting News: Memphis Grizzlies and Miami Heat go up 3-1

05.14.2013     10:02 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The night is running late so let’s jump right into the numbers…

Memphis 103, Oklahoma City 97 (in overtime)

2-Point Percentage: Oklahoma City 42%, Memphis 42%

3-Point Shooting: Oklahoma City 9/20, Memphis 6/17

Free Throws: Oklahoma City 20/22, Memphis 25/29

1’s and 2’s: Oklahoma City 70, Memphis 85

Rebounds: Oklahoma City 44, Memphis 41

Turnovers: Oklahoma City 15, Memphis 7

An inverse of Game One. This time, it was Oklahoma City as the road team blowing a big lead (up 17 at one point), so Memphis as the home team could “steal” a win. The Grizzlies had to go overtime to do it. In fact, Oklahoma City won G1 by a 93-91 score, while this one went OT at 94-94. Those two cancel out. The other two games in the series were 6-point Memphis wins (one at each site).

Average Regulation Result: Memphis by 2.5

Memphis is now +17 in turnover differential, which Read more



Tags: NBA Memphis Grizzlies Oklahoma City Thunder Miami Heat Chicago Bulls State Intelligence




NBA Gambling: Nearly 60% of bettors on Miami Heat for Game 4

05.13.2013     11:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are the consensus bets for tonight’s two NBA Playoff Games courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given wager.

Sides
Miami -8 - 59.0%
Memphis -4.5 - 56.3%

Totals
Oklahoma City-Memphis OVER 185 - 55.6%
Chicago-Miami UNDER 185.5 - 53.2%

Moneyline
Oklahoma City +170 - 70.7%
Chicago +340 - 59.5%




Tags: NBA Miami Heat Chicago Bulls Oklahoma City Thunder Memphis Grizzlies




NBA Handicapping: Playoff Home Court Advantage/Power Ratings Thru 5/12/13

05.13.2013     07:44 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Let’s update the numbers for home court advantage so far through the NBA Playoffs. Sunday’s Spurs/Warriors game brought us to a total of 58 results. I’m using 0’s for overtime games so we can keep everything in the sample right at 48 minutes. The data you’re about to see represents the first 48 minutes of every game.

Average Result: Home team by 3.6 points

Median Result: Home team by 2 points

The market generally prices home court in the NBA at about 3 points for the regular season (with tweaks for back-to-backs and at least a bonus point in Denver for the altitude). In the playoffs that often scoots up to about 4 points or even more. We’re not seeing that in Miami/Chicago, because Miami is so good some consider them more immune to “road court disadvantage.” We’ve been seeing about 5 in New York/Indiana, as the home team has been at least -5 in all four games thus far.

Here’s the updated number Read more



Tags: NBA Stat Intelligence




NBA Betting: 70% of bettors pick Miami Heat and Golden State Warriors

05.10.2013     01:14 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are the consensus bets for tonight’s two NBA Playoff Games courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given wager.

Sides
Miami -8 - 73.9%
Golden State -2 - 71.5%

Totals
Golden State-San Antonio OVER 202 - 71.5%
Chicago-Miami UNDER 187 - 55.9%

Moneyline
Miami -375 - 67.5%
Golden State -135 - 65.4%




Tags: NBA Miami Heat Golden State Warriors



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