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January

30

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College Basketball Handicapping: Oddsmakers, bettors overvalue Pittsburgh Panthers

01.07.2013     01:38 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Everyone knows Ken Pomeroy has a huge impact of the betting markets. Rarely do we see pointspreads or totals stray too far from Pomery's "predictions" unless there is a significant injury. But one ranking in particular has caught my eye. Last season, Pittsburgh finished 63rd (22-17, 5-13 Big East) in Pomeroy's rankings. Given Pitt's history of success and returning talent, the Panthers opened the year ranked 22nd – a mark that seemed fairly reasonable. But for whatever reason, Pitt skyrocketed up the rankings despite playing a soft, home friendly schedule. Heading into December 19th's game against Delaware State, the Panthers were 5th, despite playing one legitimate opponent; Michigan, on a neutral court and the Wolverines won 67-62. There were a handful of decent foes like Lehigh, Delaware and Detroit, but those games were at home and Pitt as expected won rather easily.

So then Big East play started and despite its very limited resume, Pitt closed as a 6-point home favorite over Cincinnati – a game the Bearcats won outright 70-61. Then last weekend, the Panthers took to the road to face Rutgers and were getting bet like people already knew the Read more


Tags: College Basketball Pittsburgh Panthers Georgetown Hoyas Andrew Lange




College Basketbal Betting Free Play: Washington Huskies at Washington State Cougars

01.05.2013     09:26 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Washington at Washington State -5 O/U 129
Recommendation: Under


Both Washington schools appear to being going through a little bit of a style transformation this year. Washington has implemented a different offense due to its personnel that requires more patience on offense. So far, the Huskies are for the first time ever under Lorenzo Romar averaging below 70 possessions per game. And not only has the pace slowed but the offense isn't very potent. Against defensive-minded Ohio State, Colorado State, St. Louis and UConn, UW averaged 58.5 ppg. Tonight, they travel to take on a Washington State squad that is in its second year of stall ball. Ken Bone's teams ran at Portland State and did the same in his first two seasons in Pullman. Last year, however, with the offense focused on center Brock Motum, the Cougars averaged 62.9 possessions per game. This year, they are right on that number again and have played a litany of sub-60 possession contests. As a Read more


Tags: College Basketball Washington Huskies Washington State Cougars Andrew Lange




College Basketbal Betting Free Play: Northern Colorado Bears at Weber State Wildcats

01.03.2013     08:16 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Northern Colorado at Weber State -13
Recommendation: Weber State


Northern Colorado has played a brutal schedule; one a lot of Big Sky teams would struggle with. But unfortunately for the Bears, traveling to Weber State tonight isn't much of a step down in class. I've been chomping at the bit to step in and support UNC but they've been on the road for nearly the entire non-conference and aren't good enough to compete with strong teams on the highway. The storyline for Northern Colorado is really a simple one. Yes, they were extremely young last year but they led the  country in three-point shooting at a staggering 45.1% and seventh in effective FG% at 55.1% and despite all that, they won nine games and were 5-11 in Big Sky play. This year, they are shooting only 30.5% from three and as a result have beaten only one DI team. Now they aren't going to shoot 30% all season but they just so happen to be facing one of the best three-point shooting Read more


Tags: College Basketball Northern Colorado Bears Weber State Wildcats Andrew Lange




College Basketbal Betting Free Play: Furman Paladins at SMU Mustangs

12.30.2012     09:31 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Furman at SMU -14
Recommendation: SMU


Furman is a bottom of the barrel squad with just one win over DI competition – 81-57 at home vs. Presbyterian (339th). In their eight other games, the Paladins lost by margins of 17, 14, 14, 24, 12, 21, 27, 27. The 12-point margin you see was against Jacksonville who like Presbyterian, is south of 300 according Ken Pom's ranking. So in this spot, essentially Furman is being asked to go on the road and be at least somewhat competitive against a somewhat decent squad. The Mustangs beat Loyola Marymount by 15 and Rider by 13 – two quality teams. And their last two games against sub-part competition they beat Hosftra by 26 and Alcorn State by 15 – both games away from home. At home off the holiday break, SMU gets a weak opponent it can easily handle. Lay the points.




Tags: College Basketball Furman Paladins SMU Mustangs Andrew Lange




College Basketbal Betting Free Play: Duquesne Dukes at UL-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns

12.22.2012     07:09 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Duquesne at -ULLafayette -3
Recommendation: Louisiana-Lafayette


I think this is a difficult spot for Duquesne as they make an isolated road trip to UL-Lafayette before the holiday break. The Dukes are a talented but young squad that relies heavily of three-point shooting. With the exception of a 34.6% effort from three at Appalachian State (2-8), the Dukes have shot 27%, 25%, 24%, 18% and 17% from deep away from home. And of those five games, four featured 41% FG shooting or less. Also a concern should be their performance from that charity stripe with a season average of 62%. Lafayette is also very young but has had a few performances that suggest they are capable. Earlier in the year they lost by six at Boise State and lost by three at Michigan State. Last time out, they had a five-point lead in the second half against a quality Robert Morris squad but ended up falling short 66-61. Note that Robert Morris beat Duquesne by 22 two weeks ago. The Cajun Dome is Read more


Tags: College Basketball Duquesne Dukes UL-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting Free Play: Oakland Grizzlies at West Virginia Mountaineers

12.19.2012     11:34 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oakland at West Virginia -11.5 O/U 146.5
Recommendation: West Virginia


Reading the quotes from Bobby Huggins, practice probably wasn't easy for the Mountaineers this week. Various players are in the dog house while others were called out for not putting in extra work. This team has plenty of issues but the biggest one is not being able to put the ball in the bucket. Their effective FG% ranks 318th nationally while they are hitting less than 27% of their threes. Now this isn't the type of team that is going to shoot 50% from the floor on a consistent basis but there will be nights when the shots do fall. Entire the Oakland Grizzlies who don’t play a lick of defense. They sport the second worst 2-point FG% defense in the country at 61.1%. That means WVU should have plenty of easy looks and not be forced to rely on outside shots. The Grizzlies have also had a difficult time stepping up in class on the road. With the exception of the 10-point overtime Read more


Tags: College Basketball West Virginia Mountaineers Oakland Grizzlies Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting Free Play: Stanford Cardinal at NC State Wolfpack

12.18.2012     11:29 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Stanford at NC State -7.5 O/U 142
Recommendation: NC State


I think Stanford is in for a difficult time tonight at NC State. The Cardinal will be playing their first road game of the season clear across the country against a quality foe eager for a marquee win. I typically don't make much of revenge angles but it is important to note that last year NC State traveled to Palo Alto had a comfortable lead and then allowed Stanford to close the game on a 17-1 run – much of that run occurred without CJ Leslie who was sitting due to cramps.  Offensively, Stanford has really struggled to shoot the basketball despite not having played a true road game. In losses to Belmont, Minnesota and Missouri, the Cardinal shot only 42% from the floor and an even more alarming 14-of-64, 21.8% from three. Stanford also wasn't a great road team last year. Their six PAC-12 losses were by margins of 11, 13, 13, 10, 11 and 1 (at Utah). But while a lot lines up for NC State, Read more


Tags: College Basketball Stanford Cardinal NC State Wolfpack Andrew Lange




College Basketbal Betting Free Play: UL-Monroe Warhawks at Florida State Seminoles

12.17.2012     12:53 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
UL-Monroe at Florida State -25
Recommendation: Florida State


UL-Monroe is arguably the worst team in college basketball. Already this season we've seen them lose to Oklahoma by 34, Arkansas-Little Rock by 25 and last time out, at home, by 29 to Southern. Last year's ULM team won three games and they were forced to reload with JC players. They've purposely scheduled fewer games so the kids can hit the books harder in order to boost the team's APR. The bottom line is if and when ULM covers, it will come as a result of other teams clearing their bench and calling off the dogs not because they came through the backdoor with a flurry of points late. Florida State is going through a transition and head coach Leonard Hamilton's main concern is getting his kids to buy into his style of play. There have been pitfalls including home losses to South Alabama and Mercer but when focused, the Seminoles have shown they still have the ability to outclass teams at home (see: 95-68 vs. Buffalo; 91-59 vs. Maine). With finals out of the way and nothing significant looming on deck until the weekend, I expect the Seminoles to be focused for this contest.



Tags: College Basketball UL-Monroe Warhawks Florida State Seminoles Andrew Lange




College Basketball Handicapping: How important is the first meeting to a rematch?

12.17.2012     07:39 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Interesting theory in play tonight with Louisiana Tech and Arkansas-Little Rock hooking up for a second time this season. In the first meeting, Tech rolled to a 70-52 home win. For tonight's rematch, they are currently priced as 2-point road chalk. I unearthed my College Basketball Prospectus from a few years back and remember an article written by Ken Pomeroy on second meets. The records are a little dated but over a five-year span, Pomeroy found that teams that won the first meeting at home by 20-29 points were a relatively modest 283-202 (.583) in the road rematch. Teams that won by 10-19 points (like Louisiana Tech) were 781-759 (.507). Now if it is the road team doing to initial butt-kicking, they win the rematch around 80 percent of the time at home.

The point here is that while Louisiana Tech may be the better overall team, the end result from the first meeting shouldn’t have much of an impact if any into your handicap. Perhaps more important: Will Little Rock turn the ball over 19 times like it did in Ruston? How concerned should I be over Tech's recent road losses to Northwestern State and McNeese? Is Little Rock's 7-0 record at home for real? Bottom line Read more


Tags: College Basketball Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting Free Play: UW-Milwaukee Panthers at Fairfield Staggs

12.12.2012     08:37 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wisc-Milwaukee at Fairfield -11.5
Recommendation: Fairfield


My strike price for this being a full play was -10 and unfortunately, the betting markets are well aware of UW-Milwaukee's shortcoming of late. I still think the right side for tonight's contest at Fairfield is the chalk – even with some of the value gone – and will personally play the Staggs in some capacity. Over the last three games, Milwaukee has been simply awful and after watching them lose to Buffalo by 20 and needing overtime to dispose of woeful Northern Illinois, I stepped in and faded the Panthers in what ended up being a 34-point loss to DePaul. Head coach Rob Jeter is at a loss for words when trying to describe his squad’s play. I am too. Even with a more spirited effort tonight, the Panthers just don't have the personnel to compete on the road against a quality opponent. Fairfield isn't the ideal team to be laying double-digits but I like the quotes I read Read more


Tags: College Basketball UW-Milwaukee Panthers Fairfield Staggs Andrew Lange



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