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College Basketball ATS Analysis: Creighton Blue Jays continue to cover spreads

12.10.2012     07:47 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
It's college basketball finals week which gives us a chance to catch our breath and analyze the first quarter of the season. Throughout the week we'll be taking a look at ATS successes and failures and trying to project whether or not the trend will continue.

Creighton Blue Jays: What makes Creighton’s 7-1 ATS record unique is that preseason expectations were very high. This is a team that won 29 games last season and returned practically everyone including their star, Doug McDermott. So how have they been able to make their backers money? Amazingly, it’s been defense. We mentioned last season’s 29 wins yet the Blue Jays were a .500 team against the spread – in large part because they couldn’t defend. Creighton allowed over a point per possessions, didn’t force turnovers, and simply outscored the competition – something they were very good at – in order to win. This season, despite more than a few inflated pointspreads, the Blue Jays are actually defending. After returning home from a Thanksgiving tournament, Creighton was blitzed at home by Boise State, 83-70. But what they’ve done since Read more

Tags: College Basketball Creighton Blue Jays Andrew Lange

College Basketball ATS Analysis: Charlotte 49ers are making noise

12.10.2012     07:40 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
It's college basketball finals week which gives us a chance to catch our breath and analyze the first quarter of the season. Throughout the week we'll be taking a look at ATS successes and failures and trying to project whether or not the trend will continue.

Charlotte 49ers: Head coach Alan Major's third season is off to a great start at 9-0 SU, 6-1 ATS. Expectations were modest heading into the campaign with a handful of newcomers and second-year players expected to contribute. The key for the 49ers has been depth with 8-10 guys seeing consistent minutes. That has allowed Major to play more pressure defense and the results have showed with no opponent topping 69 points despite all but one contest featuring 65 possessions or more.

Will it continue? The level of competition hasn't been great but the 49ers did win outright at Davidson as 9-point underdogs. Of course they beat the Wildcats by 13 last year, started A-10 play off 2-0 with wins against Richmond and St. Joe's, but crashed hard the second half of the season (4-12 SU, 5-9-1 ATS). This year's edition is clearly more talented so we don't project that big of a slide. The benefit Read more

Tags: College Basketball Charlotte 49ers Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Butler Bulldogs at Northwestern Wildcats

12.08.2012     08:39 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Butler at Northwestern -1.5 O/U 128.5
Recommendation: Under

I view Northwestern's 74-point, 68-possession performance at Baylor last time out as an outlier of what we can expect from the Wildcats for much of the season. Prior to that, in games against TCU, Illinois State, Maryland and UIC, Northwestern failed to top a point per possession or shoot over 45% eFG%. I made a play on Northwestern/Maryland UNDER the other day and was done in by a wild flurry of points from the Terps to start the second half. For 35 minutes, that contest played in the low 120's. And that is what I expect to see tonight against Butler. Of those four previously mentioned teams, the Bulldogs play arguably the best team defense of the bunch. Meaning, they aren't going to get carved up by Northwestern's backdoor cuts or consistently allow them open looks from three. This contest may not even top 60 possessions. If that's the case, then both teams are going to need to have above average Read more

Tags: College Basketball Butler Bulldogs Northwestern Wildcats Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Vanderbilt Commodores at Xavier Musketeers

12.06.2012     07:53 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Vanderbilt at Xavier -11 O/U 129
Recommendation: Under

Vanderbilt is in an obvious rebuilding year and as a result we've seen a dramatic change in style. The Commodores have really struggled to score and have no choice but to try and slow down the pace of their games. Their last four contests have featured 62, 60, 62, and 62 possessions. Bottom line is Vanderbilt is not going to win any games by outscoring the competition. Xavier too went through a lot of offseason transformation and as a result isn't comfortable playing at the pace of previous editions. The Musketeers played a few moderate scoring affairs on neutral courts but I looked to home games against Butler and Robert Morris as a better indication of how this team will play tonight. Against the Bulldogs, Xavier grinded out a 62-47 win with only 57 possessions. Against Robert Morris, a similar result with a 61-59 win and only 59 possessions. Last time out against Purdue, it was another ugly affair with Read more

Tags: College Basketball Vanderbilt Commodores Xavier Musketeers Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Colorado State Rams at Colorado Buffaloes

12.05.2012     07:20 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Colorado State at Colorado -5
Recommendation: Colorado

I don’t see a lot of difference between these two teams but I do feel that the situation favors the home side. Last time out, Colorado had a two-point halftime lead at Wyoming before falling apart in the second half. The Cowboys are a solid team (see: last night’s win at Illinois State) but everything went their way including some favorable calls and a few bailout threes. Head coach Tad Boyle on his team’s effort against Wyoming: "And we've got five Colorado Buffaloes bending over, standing at the waist trying to get it. He just out scrapped us," Boyle lamented. "That was the epitome of why the Wyoming Cowboys won, and why the Colorado Buffaloes lost." I’ve watched enough of Colorado to know that Boulder is a special venue and I expect their best effort of the season. CSU has done no wrong this season including a road win at Washington. Like Wyoming, this is Read more

Tags: College Basketball Colorado Buffaloes Colorado State Rams Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Louisville Cardinals at Charleston Cougars

12.04.2012     02:34 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Louisville -10 at College of Charleston O/U 129.5
Recommendation: Under

Despite playing at an above average pace, Louisville is far from a great offensive team. On the season they are shooting 30% from three-point range and 65% from the free throw line. When the Cardinals can’t score in transition, the team’s offensive efficiency becomes average at best. College of Charleston used to run under Bobby Cremins but they've adopted a more moderate paced, defensive minded style under former Tulsa head coach Doug Wojcik. The Cougars went on the road and held Baylor to 59 points. St. John's netted a modest 64 while Auburn could manage only 55 against C of C's defense. And while Charleston’s defense has been solid, they too have struggled at times to score. They shot an amazing 9-of-18 from three against Baylor and netted just 63 points. Note that they only attempted 43 field goals, meaning each possession was milked and/or resulted in a turnover. In losses to St. John's and Auburn, Charleston failed to top 39% from the floor. Tonight's opponent sports one of the best defenses in the country. The loss of Gorgui Dieng hurts Louisville on the Read more

Tags: College Basketball College of Charleston Cougars Louisville Cardinals Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Alabama Crimson Tide at Cincinnati Bearcats

12.01.2012     08:41 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Alabama at Cincinnati -6.5 O/U 130
Recommendation: Cincinnati

Toughest challenge of the season for Alabama's youthful lineup as they head up north to face a very experience and talented Cincinnati squad. The Crimson Tide are a perfect 6-0 with decent wins over South Dakota State, Oregon State and Villanova. But those were at home and on neutral courts. It will be very tough for a rotation that features 4 sophomores, 2 freshmen, and 2 juniors to go on the road to a hostile environment and hang for a full 40 minutes. Especially considering the Crimson Tide are notorious for their outside shooting struggles – you have to knock down threes in this type of underdog role. Cincinnati returns from a strong showing in Las Vegas with wins over Iowa State and Oregon. The Bearcats do at times live and die with the three but they have hit 40% thus far and will be in the comforts of home this afternoon. Defensively is where the Bearcats have looked the part. They held Read more

Tags: College Basketball Alabama Crimson Tide Cincinnati Bearcats Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Montana Grizzlies at San Francisco Dons

11.30.2012     07:22 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Montana at San Francisco -6
Recommendation: San Francisco

Despite returning only one starter from last year, I think San Francisco is sitting on a really good season. UCLA transfer De'End Parker has already made a huge impact (20.3 ppg) and Cody Doolin provides experience at the point guard position. They also have Cole Dickerson on the front line who is averaging 13 rebounds per game. The Dons have improved each of Rex Walters' four seasons and should be considered a sleeper in the WCC with a nice mix of veterans and talented underclassmen. Montana meanwhile continues to be without the services of their best player, Will Cherry. The Grizzlies have fared well thus far without him but find themselves in a difficult spot with the second of back-to-back road games; the first of which a 15-point loss at BYU on Wednesday. Last season, San Francisco went to Montana and won by three – the Grizzlies have a super-strong home court and would go on to win 25 Read more

Tags: College Basketball San Francisco Dons Montana Grizzlies Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Maryland Terrapins at Northwestern Wildcats

11.27.2012     06:31 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Maryland at Northwestern -4 O/U 129.5
Recommendation: Under

I watched most of Northwestern's overtime win over Illinois State on Saturday. The most notable thing in that contest was how slow and patient the Wildcats were on offense. ISU had come into that contest averaging 74.4 possessions per game but Northwestern wasn't willing to play that style. At the end of regulation it was tied 55-55 and even with overtime the final score was deceiving as the two teams scored 19 points in the last minute due to fouling and free throws. Tonight, Northwestern faces a Maryland squad that like ISU has the ability to score and a desire at times to get out in transition. I don't think Northwestern, especially at home, is going to want to play and up and down game against the Terps so expect to see somewhere in the low 60s in terms of possessions. If we can avoid a crazy night from deep from both teams I think the under had decent value.

Tags: College Basketball Maryland Terrapins Northwestern Wildcats Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Iowa State Cyclones at UNLV Rebels

11.24.2012     10:31 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Iowa State +9.5 at UNLV O/U 146.5
Recommendation: Iowa State

Unless UNLV's home court is worth upwards of eight points – which it isn't – tonight's game against Iowa State is vastly inflated. And that inflation is with a small adjustment after the Rebels were laying as much as -12 in last night's outright loss to Oregon. Based on what I've seen, there is little to no difference between UNLV, Oregon, Cincinnati and Iowa State. In the loss to Oregon, UNLV was exposed repeatedly on the defensive end, particularly off the dribble late in the game when they desperately needed stops. Three-point shooting was a concern heading into the season as the Rebels lost their top three shooters. Last night against the Ducks, they were 8-of-30 for 27%. Iowa State meanwhile went toe-to-toe with a strong Cincinnati squad before giving way late (it was a 4-point game with less than a minute to go). The box score was dead even with the only difference being Cincinnati's Read more

Tags: College Basketball Iowa State Cyclones UNLV Rebels Andrew Lange


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