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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Pittsburgh Panthers at Marquette Eagles

02.16.2013     07:39 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Pittsburgh -2.5 at Marquette O/U 123.5
Recommendation: Under

Numerous factors point us towards the under with this afternoon's Pittsburgh-Marquette matchup. The first meet was a knock-down-drag-out affair that produced only 65 possessions despite going to overtime. And the 74-67 score is very deceiving with the game tied 57-57 at the end of regulation. Pace wise we're dealing with two of the slower teams in the Big East with both averaging around 62 possessions per game. There have also been multiple reports that both squads will play zone defense at times this afternoon. For Pitt it is a smart move considering Marquette ranks No. 1 in the Big East is 2-point FG% at 51.5% and 14th at shooting threes (27.2%). Pitt has a similar blueprint with a vast majority of its points coming from inside 20 feet. Note that last year's meeting produced 119 points and 59 possessions and that was with Marquette playing up-tempo and averaging around 70 possessions per game. Read more

Tags: College Basketball Pittsburgh Panthers Marquette Golden Eagles Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Trends: PAC-12 home courts have been money burners

02.14.2013     02:32 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
On today's Podcast I discussed the lack of strong home courts in the PAC-12 this season. From a straight up perspective, home teams are only 40-29, 58% SU in league play which is 23rd out of 33 conferences according to Ken Pom. Where they really falter though is against the spread at 29-39-1 ATS. Arizona and Oregon are the main culprits (both 1-5 ATS) but not one team is more than a game over .500 ATS in league play. Stanford, California, and Colorado are your PAC-12 home teams this evening.

PAC-12 SU/ATS Home Records in League Play
Arizona: 4-2 SU, 1-5 ATS
Arizona State: 5-2 SU, 3-3 ATS
California: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
Colorado: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
Oregon: 5-1 SU, 1-5 ATS
Oregon State: 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS
Stanford: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS
UCLA: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS
USC: 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS
Utah: 2-4 SU, 4-3 ATS
Washington: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS
Washington State: 1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS
Overall: 40-29 SU
Against the Spread: 29-39-1 ATS


Tags: College Basketball PAC-12 Andrew Lange

College Basketball Handicapping: Can Northeastern sustain its success?

02.13.2013     03:10 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
After limping into conference play having lost six of seven, Northeastern has put together one of the surprise seasons in the Colonial Conference. The Huskies just got finished winning three straight barn burners on the road to move to 12-1 – three games ahead of tonight's opponent Delaware. I tried to step in front of Northeastern in its last game at William & Mary – one of the better situational plays I've come across over the last few weeks. Things were going according to plan as W&M (+2.5) was up seven points with five minutes to go. But Northeastern rallied back, tied the game, took the lead, and won by four points, holding the home team to a single bucket the final five minutes of game. It was a frustrating loss and yet another "clutch" performance by Northeastern.

According to Ken Pomeroy, there are seven teams in the Colonial that are ranked anywhere from 133rd to 195th. Meaning, in theory, there isn't much difference between Drexel at 6-6 and Northeastern at 12-1. Case in point, in the two meetings this year, the Huskies won in overtime on the road and by seven at home over the Dragons. It was two of a litany of competitive games Read more

Tags: College Basketball Northeastern Huskies Delaware Blue Hens Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Pick: Arkansas Razorbacks at Vanderbilt Commodores

02.09.2013     08:05 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Arkansas at Vanderbilt +2
Recommendation: Vanderbilt

From a situational standpoint, it doesn't get much better than a fade of Arkansas this afternoon. For starters, the Razorback are winless on the road – and with the exception of a three-point loss at Alabama, their SEC games away from Fayetteville haven't been very competitive with losses by 18, 14, and 21. Then there is the issue of coming off a win over Florida back on Tuesday. This is still a very young ball club and with a history of not being able to sustain success. And don't forget that when these two teams met back in mid-January, Arkansas won 56-33 – one of the worst losses in Vanderbilt's history. No question the Commodores remember that outing. As for Vandy, it's been ugly, no doubt. But this team continues to fight with three straight losses by 1, 4, and 1. They also lost to Kentucky on this floor by two and took Ole Miss to overtime. So the record says 2-7, but they could very easily Read more

Tags: College Basketball Vanderbilt Commodores Arkansas Razorbacks Andrew Lange

College Basketball Handicapping: MAAC teams falter after tough stretch of schedule

02.08.2013     07:51 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
It was a wild night in the MAAC last night as league contenders Canisius, Iona, and Niagara all lost outright as betting favorites (Canisius opened -2.5 vs. Manhattan but closed as a pk/1-point underdog). It was a classic case of three teams that were simply worn down after beating up on one another. It started two Sunday's ago when Niagara beat rival Canisius on a buzzer beater. The Purple Eagles then beat Iona in a wild 93-90 overtime affair. They then lost to Loyola-MD in double overtime, 89-87. And Canisius and Iona hooked up last Saturday with the Golden Griffins prevailing 77-74. So basically, the top four teams in the league – Niagara, Loyola-MD, Iona, and Canisius – played an intense, highly competitive round robin tournament. Note that Fairfield already ran the gauntlet of top teams and as a result started conference play 2-6. But while everyone was trading wins and losses over the last two weeks, the Stags enjoyed ripping off five straight wins against the weaker teams in the league and now find themselves in the hunt. Anyway, something to consider tonight as Loyola-MD is a big favorite over bottom feeder Siena. The Greyhounds were on the winning end of that Read more

Tags: College Basketball Canisius Golden Griffins Iona Gaels Niagara Purple Eagles Loyola (MD) Greyhounds Fairfield Stags Andrew Lange

College Basketball Gambling: DePaul's struggles to cover short lined games continue

02.06.2013     07:52 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
During last night’s game against Villanova, I was skimming through DePaul's stats from this year and last. Sportsmemo Posting Forum member Collect on Tuesday noted that the Blue Demons should feature more Cleveland Melvin and less Brandon Young on offense – a concept I can’t argue with. But as a whole, over the last two years, it looks like Young and Melvin – while certainly not ultra-efficient – are putting up comparable numbers in terms of possessions/shots used and success rate. So why has DePaul’s offense vs. the Big East declined so much? DePaul averaged nearly a point per possession in Big East play in 2012 which for a 3-15 team isn't bad. This year, they are well below that (0.93) and some of it is nothing more than an inability to knock down threes -- especially from their secondary players.

Check out how this trio of players was from three last year
Moses Morgan 2012: 54-139 .388
Jeremiah Kelly 2012: 50-149 .336
Jamee Crockett 2012: 41-109 .376
86 games: 145-397 .365

Now check them Read more

Tags: College Basketball DePaul Blue Demons Andrew Lange

College Basketball Handicapping: Wisconsin's crazy season from the charity stripe

02.06.2013     07:21 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Through nine Big Ten games, Wisconsin totals are 2-7 O/U. Last season in Big Ten play – with the help of two overtime games – the Badgers actually trended OVER the total at 11-7 O/U. The reason? There were a few but the key was free throws. Everyone is well aware UW’s horrific season from the free throw line (61.5% overall, 56.2% vs. Big Ten). But it’s also their inability to get to the line that is helping their games go under the total. That is until this occurred. Prior to the Illinois game, UW put extra emphasis in practice on trying to draw fouls. Amazingly, they went from not shooting a single free throw vs. Ohio State to 42 vs. Illinois.

Wisconsin rarely if ever strays away from a slow tempo and hard-nosed defense. But with totals routinely in the 115-125 range, free throws, or lack thereof can make a big difference. Take a look these numbers...

2012 (11-7 O/U)
16.7 FT attempts per game vs. Read more

Tags: College Basketball Wisconsin Badgers Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting: Florida continues to dominate the SEC

02.04.2013     08:28 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Florida is off to an 8-0 start in SEC play and finally failed to cover a pointspread in Saturday's 78-64 win over Ole Miss (+18). Make no mistake, the Gators were in complete control of that game and allowed the Rebels to slip through the backdoor with less than two minutes to go. Statistically, what Florida is doing right now is sick with an average scoring margin of +26.5 vs. conference foes. They are allowing 0.77 points per possession which means in a normal 65 possession game, UF's opponents average about 50 points.

When the Gators won the National Championship in 2006-07, they started conference play 11-0 and had wins by 16, 34, 25, and 16. They eventually cooled off and finished the regular season 4-3 SU and 1-7 ATS. That was a really good team but statistically, this year’s version is at this point far superior. Ken Pom points out that what Florida is doing this season is (somehow) not unprecedented. Pomeroy feels that the Gators will lose at least one and maybe even two league games. They play at Missouri in two weeks and close out the regular season in Read more

Tags: College Basketball Florida Gators Andrew Lange

College Basketbal Betting Free Pick: Idaho State at North Dakota

02.02.2013     09:14 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Idaho State at North Dakota -7
Recommendation: North Dakota

Since 2009, when asked to play back-to-back road games in Big Sky play with only one day of rest, Idaho State is 0-10 SU and 3-7 ATS. Seven of those 10 losses came by more than seven points, tonight’s line against North Dakota. This shouldn’t come as a shock seeing as the Bengals have been Big Sky bottom feeders for quite some time and travel within the league can be brutal. Here they go from Greeley, Colorado (lost to Northern Colorado by 15 on Thursday) to Grand Forks, North Dakota – I can’t confirm but I seriously doubt they chartered a flight but instead like most mid-major schools, took commercial flights sprinkled in with a few hours on a bus. North Dakota isn’t a great team but we’ve seen signs its home court is going to be tough on opposing teams. In mid-January, the (they no longer have a team nickname for PC reasons) rolled off three straight home Read more

Tags: College Basketball Idaho State Bengals North Dakota Andrew Lange

College Basketbal Betting Free Pick: Gonzaga Bulldogs at Loyola Marymount Lions

01.31.2013     07:26 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Gonzaga at Loyola Marymount +16 O/U 142
Recommendation: Loyola Marymount

As bad as Loyola Marymount's record looks, with the exception of a 92-51 loss at BYU (Cougars were in a huge revenge spot), they've been competitive more often than not in West Coast Conference play. They went to St. Mary's and lost by 13 and their other four WCC losses were by single digits. Note that they also managed to slip in a home win over a quality Santa Clara squad. And go back even further and we saw the Lions at home catching +10 against Ole Miss only to lose by three. Over the last six meetings in the series, the highest pointspread was Gonzaga Spokane. In their last three trips to Los Angeles, the Zags were laying -10.5 (won by 4), -9 (won by 10), and -11.5 (lost outright). Another key factor is the prep time. LMU head coach Max Good admitted that star Anthony Ireland has been worn down of late. The Lions had a full week of rest and prepare for the league's Read more

Tags: College Basketball Gonzaga Bulldogs Loyola Marymount Lions Andrew Lange


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