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College Basketball Free Play: Ball State Cardinals at Ohio Bobcats
01.28.2012 06:53 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Ball State
+9 at
Ohio
O/U 127.5
Recommendation: Ball State
I can't help but notice that when Ball State and Ohio hook up, the games tend to be pretty damn close. Last year, the two teams split with Ball State winning by three in overtime in the MAC Tournament and Ohio eking out of 61-60 victory in Muncie. In 2010, both meetings went to overtime. And the two years previous to that featured games decided by seven and two points. The Bobcats have four MAC wins this season and only one was by double-digits. The recently beat Miami and Western Michigan by four and five points respectively – two teams a notch below Ball State. The Cardinals come in off a disappointing second half meltdown at home against Akron. I expect a good effort here as a split on the road vs. Ohio and Buffalo is crucial for the league race. There is such a huge discrepancy between the weaker West and stronger East and it has certainly been reflected in the lines of these matchups. I think
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Tags:
College Basketball
Ball State Cardinals
Ohio Bobcats
Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Free Play: Washington Huskies at Arizona State Sun Devils
01.26.2012 07:00 AM
Printer Friendly
Washington
-7.5 at
Arizona State
O/U 137.5
Recommendation: Under
In seven PAC-12 games this season, Arizona State has topped 137 points once. It came against the fastest team in the league, Oregon State, who also happens to be incapable of stopping teams from scoring (57.4% effective FG% vs. PAC-12). In that game, there were 71 possessions and ASU shot 59% from the floor and 53% from three. If not for ASU's out-of-the-norm effort and a 45-point second half, that game probably lands in the low to mid 130s as oppose to 142. Outside of that game, ASU's games vs. the PAC-12 have averaged 58.6 possessions per game. Since losing to Colorado 87-69, Washington head coach Lorenzo Romar has been preaching better shot selection and defense and for the most part, it has worked as the Huskies have won three of their last four conference games, holding those four teams to 53, 65, 69 and 63 points. Injuries concerns for both squads with UW's CJ Wilcox and ASU's
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Tags:
College Basketball
Washington Huskies
Arizona State Sun Devils
Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Free Play: Bradley Braves at Southern Illinois Salukis
01.24.2012 07:01 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Bradley
+7 at
Southern Illinois
O/U 138
Recommendation: Bradley
Why on earth is Southern Illinois laying -7 in a conference game? I understand Bradley is not very good and the Salukis are coming off a 85-42 beat down at Wichita, but this number is in my opinion way too high. Situational aside, let's look at the facts: Both teams have faced similar league schedules and have nearly identical statistical profiles. They struggle to defend on a consistent basis and have no real edge in any facet of the game. SIU has managed to pick up a few more league wins and by default deserves to be favored, but I expected to see this game lined in the -3 range. SIU won the first meeting in Peoria but shot an uncharacteristically high 57% from the floor. Unless that type of effort occurs again, I think the road team can stick around and make this a game.
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Bradley Braves
Southern Illinois Salukis
Andrew Lange
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College Hoops Free Pick: Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions
01.19.2012 07:24 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Illinois
at
Penn State
+3.5 O/U 123.5
Recommendation: Penn State
It has been quite a turnaround for Illinois of late. Less than a month ago, this team had the look of a .500 team in Big Ten play. But three straight close wins, including a 79-74 victory over Ohio State has the Illini atop the league standings. The win over the Buckeyes was particularly intriguing because Illinois got 43 points from Brandon Paul and as a team shot 60% from the floor and 61% from three. Prior to that, Illinois was hard-pressed to shoot 45% in game. Regardless, off a monster win, and in first place...and with Wisconsin on deck, the Illini take a trip to face 9-10, 1-5 Penn State. The Nittany Lions are not a good basketball team, but they've shown me enough to think they could give Illinois some trouble. PSU beat Purdue on this floor by 20 and battled Indiana to a six-point loss. Note that Illinois may be 15-3 but winning by margin hasn't come easy. They beat Cornell by four,
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Illinois Fighting Illini
Penn State Nittany Lions
Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Free Play: Maryland Terrapins at Florida State Seminoles
01.17.2012 06:08 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Maryland
at
Florida State
Recommendation: Maryland +6.5 1st half
Beating North Carolina at home wasn't that monumental of an achievement for Florida State – despite what the Seminoles’ student body showcased after the buzzer. However, hanging 90 on the Tar Heels in route to a 33-point victory is no doubt going to make FSU's players feel good about themselves. Letdowns happen all of the time in college hoops and the odds of that occurring to the Seminoles – for at least parts of tonight's game – are pretty good. I will say that of all of the potential letdown victims, it is the teams with elite level defenses which are typically the least susceptible – something that FSU without question has. The one thing the Seminoles don't have though is the ability to consistently knock down shots. Against a majority of the better teams on their schedule, the Seminoles failed to top 1.0 point per possession. Maryland is a different squad
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Maryland Terrapins
Florida State Seminoles
Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Betting: Kentucky Wildcats struggle to cover pointspreads
01.16.2012 02:17 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Typically, the best teams in college basketball post against the spread records around the .500 mark. They obviously win a lot which is correlated with covering spreads but on the same token, the extra "tax" and attraction to bettors often keeps them from putting up great ATS numbers. Take last year from example. North Carolina (16-17 ATS), Duke (20-16 ATS), Kansas (18-17 ATS), Pittsburgh (15-14 ATS), Syracuse (15-18 ATS), Ohio State (18-16 ATS) and Kentucky (16-16 ATS) were all right around the .500 mark. There were some expectations, most notably UConn (23-12 ATS), but the Huskies came from way off the grid to go 10-1 ATS during the postseason.
But this year, something odd is taking place. Kentucky, which is considered to be one of the best teams in the country, is a horrific 3-13-1/4-12-1/4-13 ATS (depending on what numbers you go by). Based on one set of numbers I saw, the Wildcats haven't covered a game since November 19 – after starting the season 3-0 ATS. So why has Kentucky been such a poor spread team? No question, there is a tax tacked onto the Cats – but the same can be said about a lot teams. But unlike those teams, Kentucky is young,
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Kentucky Wildcats
Andrew Lange
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NCAA Basketball Betting Trends: 71% of Missouri Valley games have gone OVER the total
01.16.2012 01:12 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Building on the blog we posted the other day about the
increase in scoring
in the Missouri Valley Conference this season. The MVC has long been known as a grind-it-out league that on occasion sees a team or two willing to play up-tempo. Below is a chart of the team-by-team yearly pace rankings according to Ken Pom. As you can see, from 2008-10, the MVC's average rank was between 233 and 241. This season however, we've seen that number climb to 173 as half the league ranks 143 or higher. I think we'll see the overall pace numbers dip once these teams play more conference games which brings us to our next point. Amazingly, 25 of the MVC's 35 league games have gone over the total thus far. The only two teams to not trend towards the OVER in league play are ironically the league's two top offense, Creighton and Wichita State. And only one team (Drake, 6-9 O/U) has trended UNDER from a season long perspective.
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Saturday College Basketball Free Pick: Ole Miss Rebels at Auburn Tigers
01.14.2012 06:54 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Mississippi
at
Auburn
+1 O/U 124.5
Recommendation: Auburn
We are getting to that point of the college basketball season where we can start utilizing spot plays to our advantage. I see one today in the SEC that I am particularly fond of. On Wednesday, Ole Miss was in an ideal situation – at home, needing a win, facing an opponent off a amazing performance. The Rebels took care of business by beating Arkansas 71-63 to move to 1-1 in SEC play. Now they go on the road and are likely to get a pretty good effort from their opponent. Auburn has lost three games in a row including two to conference foes Vanderbilt and Kentucky. I watched their game against Kentucky and came away impressed -- the Tigers actual led in the second half and were tied with about seven minutes to go before Kentucky finally flexed its muscle. Personnel wise, I see little to no difference between Ole Miss and Auburn and feel the spot is prime for a Tigers victory.
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Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Free Pick: Virginia Cavaliers at Duke Blue Devils
01.12.2012 01:33 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Virginia
+11 at
Duke
O/U 128
Recommendation: Virginia
If you run through Duke's scores against good competition this year you don't see a lot of double-digit wins. They beat Belmont by 1, Michigan State by 5, Tennessee by 10, Michigan by 7, Kansas by 7, and Washington by 6. Also noted are losses to Ohio State and Temple and a 7-point road win over Georgia Tech last time out. The Blue Devils did beat Davidson by 13 in Durham back in November – a game the Wildcats led at halftime. Obviously some of those games were on the road/neutral but at no point have we seen the Blue Devils roll over a halfway competent opponent. And that is exactly what they'll face tonight in Virginia. The Cavaliers don't go about it in a very exiting manner but they bring the type of defense we like to have when backing a double-digit underdog. And in watching UVA play this season, the offense is much improved. It doesn't necessarily show with more than a few offensive outputs in the
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Duke Blue Devils
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College Basketball Free Play: Kentucky Wildcats at Auburn Tigers
01.11.2012 07:32 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Kentucky
at
Auburn
+18 O/U 135.5
Recommendation: Auburn
Even though Kentucky is a completely different team from a year ago, the make-up of the team is very similar – a load of talent and not a lot of experience. Going on the road with freshmen can be difficult on any team and Kentucky is no exception. Last season, the Wildcats went 2-6 SU on the highway in SEC play – a group that was two points from playing for the National Championship. Despite back-to-back horrendous road showings (29-point loss to Florida State and 30-point loss to Vanderbilt), I trust that Auburn is going to play much better at home against an opponent that won't be difficult to get up for. The Tigers weren't very good last season yet in SEC play, their home losses were by margins of 7, 5, 10, 13, 17 and 2. Over the past week we've seen both Georgia Tech (vs. Duke) and Illinois (vs. Ohio State) perform better than they have all season – at home vs. a top rated opponent. With
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Kentucky Wildcats
Auburn Tigers
Andrew Lange
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