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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Maryland Terrapins at NC State Wolfpack
01.08.2012 07:29 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Maryland
+11 at
NC State
O/U 148.5
Recommendation: Maryland
I think when it is all said and done, the final season results of both Maryland and NC State won't be too dissimilar. The Wolfpack probably have a bit more talent but with the Terps adding a few pieces over the last few weeks, the difference isn't 11 points. Another part of my intrigue towards the underdog is that NC State cannot be trusted in the price range against comparable competition. I've watched this team multiple times this season and during the regular flow of the game, they look extremely good. But it all goes haywire when possessions start to mean something or they need a defensive stop. Maryland PG Pe'Shone Howard (broken foot) and center Alex Lin (eligibility) should be fairly settled in the rotation having played four and three games respectively. As a result, the Terps now have eight players who have averaged over 20 minutes per game of playing time. I don't think the betting markets
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College Basketball
Maryland Terrapins
NC State Wolfpack
Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Washington Huskies at Utah Utes
01.07.2012 07:47 AM
Printer Friendly
Washington
-16 at
Utah
O/U 141.5
Recommendation: Under
Playing Washington under the total would seems like a crazy idea because the Huskies take quick shots and have had a difficult time buying into the concept of defense. But I think both those will be points of emphasis heading into tonight's game against Utah. Head coach Lorenzo Romar is getting a little impatient with his team's impatience on offense and is also asking for a little better defensive effort. Tonight's opponent Utah could provide the perfect storm. The Utes have somehow won three of their last five games by simply playing hard, milking the clock and hoping to stick around at the end. Last time out, they beat up-tempo Washington State 62-60 in overtime. That game had 62 possessions. The game before that was a 59 possession affair vs. Colorado and against Weber State, 60 possessions. Those aren't the type of teams that like to wait long on offense which means Utah is doing a good job at dictating
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College Basketball
Washington Huskies
Utah Utes
Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Free Pick: Montana State Bobcats at Idaho State Bengals
01.05.2012 07:18 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Montana State
at
Idaho State
-1.5 O/U 137
Recommendation: Under
The only way Idaho State is going to have success in the Big Sky this season is to shorten the game and play defense. The Bengals simply don't have the horses to trade scores on a nightly basis. Last time out, they went on the road and picked up a rare victory – a 57-55 win at Northern Colorado. The game featured only 53 possessions (and UNC likes to run typically). Montana State is off a rare performance as well as it hung 86 on Portland State. It was really the perfect storm for the Bobcats – weak opponent that doesn't play defense and likes to run. On the road, I don't think we'll see that type of outcome. The total in this series has never been higher that 135 (2-10 O/U) and in Pocatello, the game scores were 95, 133, 107, 113, and 125. Play it under.
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College Basketball Free Play: Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma State Cowboys
01.04.2012 06:18 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Texas Tech
+11.5 at
Oklahoma State
O/U 133.5
Recommendation: Texas Tech
I keep reading articles about how Oklahoma State's tough non-conference schedule is going to pay dividends down the road but I see it helping them grind out a close win on the road, not beating teams by double-digits. Since victories over bottom feeders Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Arkansas-Pine Bluff, the Cowboys are 4-6 SU with two wins in overtime and the other two by three and five. You can certainly make and argument that all ten of those opponents are better than Texas Tech but Texas-San Antonio, Tulsa and SMU aren’t too far removed. The Red Raiders took their lumps early on and will continue to do so when asked to step up in class in the Big XII. You look at their resume and there isn't one win to get excited about. But I look at two factors: One, they have been in every game with the exception of a 16-point loss at Oral Roberts. Second, I'm a firm believer in
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NCAAB Handicapper Free Pick: Oral Roberts Golden Eagles vs. Oakland Grizzlies
01.03.2012 01:44 PM
Andrew Lange
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Oral Roberts at Oakland +3 O/U 150
Recommendation: Oakland
It doesn't appear that Oakland is the class of the Summit League this season after a 17-1 mark last year. The Grizzlies have already lost two league games and find themselves in the midst of a four-game losing streak. We know this team still has talent with a home win over Tennessee and solid performances in losses to Ohio, Michigan and Arizona. This is a home court that has held up extremely well over the years with 31-straight conference victories. A potentially dangerous spot for Oral Roberts who is playing its third straight road game and returns home for a two-game set against upstart North Dakota State and South Dakota State on Thursday and Saturday. ORU has an impressive resume but is perhaps getting a bit too much credit for winning at Xavier when the Musketeers were decimated by suspensions. Oakland was a 1.5-point underdog in the win over Tennessee and just a year removed from never being less than a double-digit favorite on its home court in conference play. Oakland head coach Greg Kampe described tonight's game as "must win as you can ever have in January". Never like to
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College Basketball Free Pick: George Mason at College of Charleston
12.30.2011 02:16 PM
Andrew Lange
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George Mason at College of Charleston -3.5 O/U 139
Recommendation: College of Charleston
Laying -2.5 to -4 with home teams can be tricky because in most cases, the two teams involved are evenly matched and the only thing separating them is a sometimes phantom home court advantage. But in this particular matchup, I see the favorite as the legitimately better team while also owning a home court advantage that is real. College of Charleston was not expected to do much this season after losing a host of seniors including all-everything guard Andrew Goudelock. But 12 games into the season it looks as if this year's edition isn't too far removed 2010-11's 26-win squad. And that type of success has been the norm under head coach Bobby Cremins who has produced 22+ win campaigns in four of his five seasons in Charleston and looks headed for a sixth in 2012. The Cougars have no seriously blemishes on their resume with wins over Clemson, UMass and Tennessee. Their two competitive losses to Central Florida and at Louisville are nothing to be ashamed of. The offense has scored one point per possession in every game but two and the only knock that I see is a
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NCAA Basketball Betting: Northern Arizona and Idaho State coaching changes
12.29.2011 01:17 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Some news out of the Big Sky that seems to have flown under the radar. Both Northern Arizona and Idaho State saw their head coaches resign recently.
Joe O'Brien had a lot of success at the junior college level but could never kick start the Idaho State program (56-105 since 2006). Assistant Deane Martin has taken over on an interim basis. Martin is a first-year assistant who spent time as a coach in Mexico and with the NBDL. ISU lost to Wyoming 80-56 at home in Martin's debut. They play at Weber State tonight.
Northern Arizona's Mike Adras stepped aside back in early December and the Lumberjacks responded under 70-year-old interim coach Dave Brown with wins over Cal State Bakersfield and Arizona State. They were however blasted at Sam Houston State last time out, 73-49. NAU plays host to Sacramento State tonight.
The personnel for both teams are so poor this year that the coaching changes are unlikely to bring about a massive turnaround. The Big Sky is a flaky league where randomness tends to prevail but I have little to no interest in backing these squads anytime soon (4-12 ATS combined).
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College Basketball Free Pick: UCLA Bruins at Stanford Cardinal
12.29.2011 12:58 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
UCLA
at
Stanford
-6 O/U 127
Recommendation: Stanford
UCLA just spend the better part of December trying to get back in the good graces of the betting markets. Apparently they've done enough to be competitively lined on the road against a quality opponent. But while the Bruins may have built some confidence, it doesn't necessarily mean they are a quality basketball team. The last five opponents were all nowhere near Stanford in terms of ability and they all took place in Los Angeles. UC Irvine, UC Davis, Eastern Washington – those are teams UCLA should be able to beat with their bench alone. Penn and Richmond are halfway decent and UCLA got all they could handle in both contests. Stanford outpaced the market place in November with a 6-0 ATS mark but stumbled last time out against Butler (as a 12.5-point favorite). That loss and UCLA's recent results provide what appears to me to be a decent discount. Lay the points in this PAC-12 opener.
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College Basketball Free Pick: Seton Hall Pirates at Syracuse Orange
12.28.2011 06:21 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Seton Hall
+15.5 at
Syracuse
O/U 137
Recommendation: Seton Hall
I realize that Seton Hall's 11-1 start was aided by more than a handful of creampuff opponents. I'm also aware that the Pirates won in the Carrier Dome last season by 32 as 12.5-point underdogs. But those factors don't outweigh that we have a capable underdog catching +15.5 in a conference game. Syracuse has the look of an elite team but in five games against decent competition, the Orange weren’t exactly posting 20-point wins left and right. They beat Virginia Tech and Stanford by 11 and six respectively at Madison Square Garden and slipped past Florida by four. Marshall went to the Carrier Dome and lost by six and NC State jumped out to a big lead before the Orange went on a crazy 23-0 run in the first half. The Wolfpack though managed to tie the game in the second before running out of steam in what ended up be a somewhat deceiving 88-72 loss. In Big East play last year, Syracuse
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College Basketball Free Play: UTEP Miners vs. Kansas State Wildcats
12.23.2011 08:24 AM
Andrew Lange
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UTEP +10.5 vs. Kansas State O/U 128
Recommendation: UTEP
Few teams if any have improved more over the last few weeks than UTEP. It all started after the Miners lost to Stephen F. Austin at home 53-35. Tim Floyd decided with a host of inexperience and youth that the best thing to do was to shorten the game and play at a slow pace in order to just stick around. The move paid off as the Miners went to Oregon and lost by six and then beat New Mexico State after losing to the Aggies by 16 a month earlier. They then hung at UNLV in an 11-point loss and last night dominated Clemson 61-48. Kansas State has done nothing wrong this season with wins over Virginia Tech and Alabama and a double-OT loss to West Virginia. But in a neutral site setting, where laying this type of price can be extremely dangerous, I see no reason that UTEP can't grind its way to another spread cover.
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