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Ohio Valley Tournament Betting Preview

03.05.2013     03:28 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Ohio Valley Conference Tournament Preview

This will mark the third year of the double-bye system for the OVC Tournament. Eight teams made the field; the bottom four play on Wednesday. The No. 3 and No. 4 seeds get a first round bye. The two division winners, No. 1 Belmont (East) and No. 2 Murray State (West) received double-byes. Over the last 11 tournaments, no team has won in all with more than four regular season conference losses. If history repeats itself, either Belmont (14-2) or Eastern Kentucky (12-4) will cut down the nets. Murray State benefited from the OVC splitting into two divisions thanks to the addition of Belmont. The Racers had the fourth-best record (10-6) but won the weaker West Division, hence their No. 2 seed.

First Round Pick: Southeast Missouri
There were a lot of expectations for Dickey Nutt's bunch heading into the season but the Redhawks got off to a sluggish 3-7 start in league play and were on the verge of potentially being left out of the postseason. But the back half of the schedule was more favorable and this team started to gain confidence winning five out of its last six league games by Read more

Tags: College Basketball Andrew Lange

Horizon League Tournament Betting Preview

03.05.2013     07:09 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Horizon League Tournament Preview

As structured as this tournament is to reward the regular season champ, it has been far from automatic for the top seed of late with the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds winning three of the last four titles. That said, since changing the format of the tournament back in 2003, seven out of the last 10 years have featured a No. 1 vs. No. 2 final. Not once during that span has a seed lower than No. 3 reached the finals.

First Round Pick: UW-Milwaukee +14
Not a lot to like about the Panthers this season – they were without question the worst team in the league. But their struggles have been well accounted for in the line for quite some time. And I like that Green Bay won both meetings by big margins (74-54 and 78-61). Both contests were actually fairly close for a while before GB went on ridiculous scoring runs. UWM has nothing to lose and knows it can hang with its in-state rival. Worth a shot on the underdog.

Darkhorse: Given the history of this tournament and how strong #1 Valpo and #2 Detroit have been this season, it's hard to have any sort of confidence in a true Read more

Tags: College Basketball Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Pick: SMU Mustangs at UAB Blazers

03.02.2013     08:28 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
SMU at UAB -5.5
Recommendation: UAB

UAB got off to a sluggish start to C-USA play in part because six of its first seven games were against the top five teams in the conference. During that span they were overwhelmed at times but towards the end of that stretch we saw some potential as the Blazers beat UTEP and lost to a quality Southern Miss squad by four. Once the schedule got softer, UAB was able to parlay those experiences and pointspread value into a current 5-1 SU/ATS run. Some of that value has worn off but the fact remains, this is a much improved team, playing its best of the season, at home, against a weak opponent.

"If you plan it, I was planning a few more wins earlier in the year," Haase said. "This is the time to be playing the best basketball and that certainly is the case for us. We've been continuing to get better every year."

SMU has been competitive in Larry Brown's first season but they don't have much Read more

Tags: College Basketball UAB Blazers SMU Mustangs Andrew Lange

Bracket Buster Betting Free Play: Albany Great Danes at Fairfield Stags

02.23.2013     08:00 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Albany at Fairfield -8
Recommendation: #638 Fairfield

In most cases, the handicap of Bracket Buster games is all about information and motivation. In the case of Albany, we find a team that isn’t exactly giddy about having to go on the road for a meaningless game. Here's what head coach Will Brown had to say about it...

"All I am worried about right now is the America East," Brown said. "I am not going to risk anything for the BracketBuster. Our focus is the America East Conference tournament right now. I want to make sure we are healthy, rested and feel good about ourselves."

He went on to add...

“I think it’s a great concept,” Brown said. “It’s a great idea, but if you don’t play on TV, I would rather have the weekend off. I know a lot of coaches feel that way.”

Brown said that starting guard Peter Hooley won't play and that he'll be open Read more

Tags: College Basketball Albany Great Danes Fairfield Stags Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Valparaiso Crusaders at Loyola-Chicago Ramblers

02.19.2013     08:05 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Valparaiso -6 at Loyola Chicago
Recommendation: Valparaiso

Loyola has been an overvalued commodity for much of the season at home. Prior to Saturday's win over rival UIC, the Ramblers failed to cover six straight at the Gentile Center. Tonight they play host to an opponent in Valparaiso that is eager for a big win. To start, the Crusaders are looking for payback after losing on their home court to the Ramblers back in early January. Second, after blowing Saturday's game against Detroit, Valpo's lead in the conference standings is only a half game. But the real key to this game is the health of Loyola’s Cully Payne and Ben Averkamp. Loyola managed a "hump up effort" without the duo against weaker UIC. Tonight against a far better opponent, their absence could be magnified. In the first meeting, Payne and Averkamp combined for 30 points and 12 assists. As of this morning, Payne (thumb) is doubtful and Averkamp (concussion) is questionable. Read more

Tags: College Basketball Valparaiso Crusaders Loyola-Chicago Ramblers Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Pittsburgh Panthers at Marquette Eagles

02.16.2013     07:39 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Pittsburgh -2.5 at Marquette O/U 123.5
Recommendation: Under

Numerous factors point us towards the under with this afternoon's Pittsburgh-Marquette matchup. The first meet was a knock-down-drag-out affair that produced only 65 possessions despite going to overtime. And the 74-67 score is very deceiving with the game tied 57-57 at the end of regulation. Pace wise we're dealing with two of the slower teams in the Big East with both averaging around 62 possessions per game. There have also been multiple reports that both squads will play zone defense at times this afternoon. For Pitt it is a smart move considering Marquette ranks No. 1 in the Big East is 2-point FG% at 51.5% and 14th at shooting threes (27.2%). Pitt has a similar blueprint with a vast majority of its points coming from inside 20 feet. Note that last year's meeting produced 119 points and 59 possessions and that was with Marquette playing up-tempo and averaging around 70 possessions per game. Read more

Tags: College Basketball Pittsburgh Panthers Marquette Golden Eagles Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Trends: PAC-12 home courts have been money burners

02.14.2013     02:32 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
On today's Podcast I discussed the lack of strong home courts in the PAC-12 this season. From a straight up perspective, home teams are only 40-29, 58% SU in league play which is 23rd out of 33 conferences according to Ken Pom. Where they really falter though is against the spread at 29-39-1 ATS. Arizona and Oregon are the main culprits (both 1-5 ATS) but not one team is more than a game over .500 ATS in league play. Stanford, California, and Colorado are your PAC-12 home teams this evening.

PAC-12 SU/ATS Home Records in League Play
Arizona: 4-2 SU, 1-5 ATS
Arizona State: 5-2 SU, 3-3 ATS
California: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
Colorado: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
Oregon: 5-1 SU, 1-5 ATS
Oregon State: 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS
Stanford: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS
UCLA: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS
USC: 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS
Utah: 2-4 SU, 4-3 ATS
Washington: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS
Washington State: 1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS
Overall: 40-29 SU
Against the Spread: 29-39-1 ATS


Tags: College Basketball PAC-12 Andrew Lange

College Basketball Handicapping: Can Northeastern sustain its success?

02.13.2013     03:10 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
After limping into conference play having lost six of seven, Northeastern has put together one of the surprise seasons in the Colonial Conference. The Huskies just got finished winning three straight barn burners on the road to move to 12-1 – three games ahead of tonight's opponent Delaware. I tried to step in front of Northeastern in its last game at William & Mary – one of the better situational plays I've come across over the last few weeks. Things were going according to plan as W&M (+2.5) was up seven points with five minutes to go. But Northeastern rallied back, tied the game, took the lead, and won by four points, holding the home team to a single bucket the final five minutes of game. It was a frustrating loss and yet another "clutch" performance by Northeastern.

According to Ken Pomeroy, there are seven teams in the Colonial that are ranked anywhere from 133rd to 195th. Meaning, in theory, there isn't much difference between Drexel at 6-6 and Northeastern at 12-1. Case in point, in the two meetings this year, the Huskies won in overtime on the road and by seven at home over the Dragons. It was two of a litany of competitive games Read more

Tags: College Basketball Northeastern Huskies Delaware Blue Hens Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Pick: Arkansas Razorbacks at Vanderbilt Commodores

02.09.2013     08:05 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Arkansas at Vanderbilt +2
Recommendation: Vanderbilt

From a situational standpoint, it doesn't get much better than a fade of Arkansas this afternoon. For starters, the Razorback are winless on the road – and with the exception of a three-point loss at Alabama, their SEC games away from Fayetteville haven't been very competitive with losses by 18, 14, and 21. Then there is the issue of coming off a win over Florida back on Tuesday. This is still a very young ball club and with a history of not being able to sustain success. And don't forget that when these two teams met back in mid-January, Arkansas won 56-33 – one of the worst losses in Vanderbilt's history. No question the Commodores remember that outing. As for Vandy, it's been ugly, no doubt. But this team continues to fight with three straight losses by 1, 4, and 1. They also lost to Kentucky on this floor by two and took Ole Miss to overtime. So the record says 2-7, but they could very easily Read more

Tags: College Basketball Vanderbilt Commodores Arkansas Razorbacks Andrew Lange

College Basketball Handicapping: MAAC teams falter after tough stretch of schedule

02.08.2013     07:51 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
It was a wild night in the MAAC last night as league contenders Canisius, Iona, and Niagara all lost outright as betting favorites (Canisius opened -2.5 vs. Manhattan but closed as a pk/1-point underdog). It was a classic case of three teams that were simply worn down after beating up on one another. It started two Sunday's ago when Niagara beat rival Canisius on a buzzer beater. The Purple Eagles then beat Iona in a wild 93-90 overtime affair. They then lost to Loyola-MD in double overtime, 89-87. And Canisius and Iona hooked up last Saturday with the Golden Griffins prevailing 77-74. So basically, the top four teams in the league – Niagara, Loyola-MD, Iona, and Canisius – played an intense, highly competitive round robin tournament. Note that Fairfield already ran the gauntlet of top teams and as a result started conference play 2-6. But while everyone was trading wins and losses over the last two weeks, the Stags enjoyed ripping off five straight wins against the weaker teams in the league and now find themselves in the hunt. Anyway, something to consider tonight as Loyola-MD is a big favorite over bottom feeder Siena. The Greyhounds were on the winning end of that Read more

Tags: College Basketball Canisius Golden Griffins Iona Gaels Niagara Purple Eagles Loyola (MD) Greyhounds Fairfield Stags Andrew Lange


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