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College Basketbal Betting Free Pick: Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal

01.30.2013     12:17 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Oregon at Stanford -2 O/U 139
Recommendation: Over

Last time out, without starting point guard Dominic Artis, Oregon scored 81 points in an up-tempo, 76 possession game against Washington. I don't think we'll see those types of numbers tonight but it's clear that from a tempo standpoint, even without Artis, the Ducks are going to continue to run.

"We need to keep running," Altman said. "That suits us and helps us with our depth. If we're going to play nine or 10 guys, we've got to make sure we're pressing the other team."

Stanford has been up and down all season but we've seen the Cardinal push tempo with a willing partner. Games against USC, UCLA and Colorado featured an average of 70 possessions. The problem for Stanford has been an inconsistent offense. I expect them to pressure Read more

Tags: College Basketball Oregon Ducks Stanford Cardinal Andrew Lange

College Basketbal Betting Free Play: Oregon State Beavers at USC Trojans

01.19.2013     07:03 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Oregon State +5.5 at USC
Recommendation: Oregon State

Not sure that USC is ready to lay -5.5 in a conference game. The Trojans performed well and expended a lot of energy in Thursday's loss to Oregon. They played at a faster tempo and showed a variety of different defenses under interim head coach Bob Cantu. My issue is while practice may be more enjoyable to go to with Kevin O’Neill gone; this is still an average PAC-12 team void of a significant home court advantage or ability to pull away from teams of comparable ability. After beating UC Riverside 70-26, USC lost at home to UC Irvine, Cal, and Oregon. Their wins in LA were by two against Stanford and by two, in overtime, against Dayton. Oregon State is winless in PAC-12 play in part because they've played the best three teams in the league (Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA) and also because of suspensions. Tonight they’re expected to be at full strength with Eric Moreland (10.8 ppg, 11.1 rpg) Read more

Tags: College Basketball Oregon State Beavers USC Trojans Andrew Lange

NCAA Basketball Betting Free Play: South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Western Illinois Leathernecks

01.17.2013     08:51 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
South Dakota State at Western Illinois -2.5
Recommendation: Western Illinois

You think Western Illinois has had tonight's game against South Dakota State circled? Last year, the Jackrabbits not only beat the Leathernecks three times but one of those games was by single point and the other was in overtime in the Summit League Championship game. WIU is an experienced team with a decent home court. You go back to last year and three of their conference losses in Macomb were by 1 (vs. SDSU), 1 (double OT) and 4 (double OT). This season, they are a perfect 8-0 at rinky-dink Western Hall and tonight marks arguably the biggest game the program has had under Jim Molinari. South Dakota State is a good team as seen by road wins at Montana and New Mexico. But there were also some bad losses, most notably at Hofstra and at South Dakota. Defensively is where these two teams differ. SDSU has had difficulty at times whereas WIU puts much more emphasis on Read more

Tags: College Basketball Western Illinois Leathernecks South Dakota State Jackrabbits Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting: BYU's struggles against strong competition continue

01.17.2013     07:15 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Last night, BYU lost on a buzzer beater to St. Mary's, 70-69. It marked yet another failed attempt for the Cougars to pick up a marquee victory. Over the last two seasons, BYU has had an incredibly difficult time stepping up in class. Check out the results against St. Mary's and Gonzaga...

BYU -5 vs. St. Mary's - 70-69 Loss
BYU +2.5 vs. Gonzaga - 77-58 Loss
BYU +6.5 at Gonzaga - 74-63 Loss
BYU -3.5 vs. Gonzaga - 83-73 Win
BYU -2.5 vs. St. Mary's - 80-66 Loss
BYU +4 at St. Mary's - 98-82 Loss

That's 1-5 SU/ATS. And if we include better than average power conference teams, there are even more failures.

BYU -2 vs. Florida State - 88-70 Loss
BYU +3 vs. Notre Dame - 78-68 Loss
BYU +4 at Iowa State - 83-62 Loss
BYU +7 at Baylor - 79-64 Loss

BYU +5 vs. Marquette - 88-68 Loss
BYU -4 vs. Baylor - 86-83 Loss
BYU +7.5 vs. Wisconsin - 73-56 Loss

If we stretch the parameters a little, there were SU/ATS wins against Oregon (infant stages of Dana Altman's first season) and at Virginia Tech (Hokies finished 16-17). Still, BYU's track record against strong competition is Read more

Tags: College Basketball BYU Cougars Andrew Lange

College Basketbal Betting Free Play: NC State Wolfpack at Maryland Terrapins

01.16.2013     02:43 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
NC State at Maryland -1.5 O/U 149
Recommendation: Over

Maryland has not been shy about its desire to play up-tempo with both home games in ACC play hitting the 70 possessions mark. And tonight, the Terps have talked about making a change at the point guard position, putting Nick Faust in place of the offensively inept Pe'Shon Howard.

The Terps are searching for a spark, and Faust may just oblige, allowing Maryland to work a little faster offensively. Since Faust doesn’t know all the set plays at point guard, teammate Logan Aronhalt said, the Terps might adjust with more quick-hitters, searching for easy, fast buckets.

NC State is in no way an elite level defense. In half of the Wolfpack's games, they've allowed 1.03 points per possession or more. Check out Read more

Tags: College Basketball NC State Wolfpack Maryland Terrapins Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon Ducks

01.13.2013     08:27 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Arizona State at Oregon
Recommendation: Arizona State +5.5 1st half

On most days, Oregon is without question 10 points or more better than Arizona State on its home floor. But, the Ducks are off a huge storm-the-court-win against undefeated Arizona and it shouldn't come as a shock if they come out sluggish against ASU tonight. That was the biggest win the Ducks have had under Dana Altman as the team moved to 13-2, 2-0 PAC-12. Arizona State comes in playing with house money. They beat Utah in overtime to open PAC-12 play, caught Colorado in a great spot, and benefited from a multiple suspensions to Oregon State. I'm not completely sold on the Sun Devils but they are improved from last season (see: PG Jahii Carson) and have the guard play and size to not be completely overwhelmed on the highway. I grabbed some ASU +5.5 first half and will play accordingly at halftime.

Tags: College Basketball Arizona State Sun Devils Oregon Ducks Andrew Lange

College Basketbal Betting Free Pick: Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon State Beavers

01.10.2013     06:48 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Arizona State at Oregon State -5
Recommendation: Oregon State

I'm not sold on Arizona's 13-2, 2-0 PAC-12 start. Are the Sun Devils better than last year? No question. But the schedule has been extremely favorable thus far and things get a bit tougher starting tonight in Corvallis. For starters ASU has played one true road game against a Texas Tech squad that just lost on its home floor to Baylor by 34. Next, the Sun Devils are 2-0 in league play but needed overtime to get past Utah and were gift-wrapped a win against Colorado after the Buffaloes were hosed out of one on the road against undefeated Arizona. Oregon State meanwhile below a six-point halftime lead and ended up losing to rival Oregon 79-66 at home. With Arizona on deck and then back-to-back road games in LA, all of a sudden this game has a lot of meaning. If Oregon State can keep ASU's Jahii Carson in check – I expect they’ll throw multiple defensive looks his way – I think Read more

Tags: College Basketball Oregon State Beavers Arizona State Sun Devils Andrew Lange

College Basketbal Betting Free Play: Louisville Cardinals at Seton Hall Pirates

01.09.2013     02:40 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Louisville -10.5 at Seton Hall O/U 136.5
Recommendation: Over

Louisville has put up outstanding defensive numbers this season but if you dig a little you'll notice that quality teams have had varying degrees of success. Providence shot 45% from the floor and 40% from three. Kentucky was even better at 48.3%/47.6%. Memphis hit nearly 52% of its shots and Illinois State did the same. Some of those games were without the services of post presence Gorgui Dieng who is now back but the loss of Chane Behanan once again leaves the Cardinals without a quality defender. Pitno said Behanan will be replaced by Montrezl Harrell who doesn't yet understand the intricacies of the team’s defense. Make no mistake, Louisville is still an elite defense, but in its five games vs. BCS conference schools (and Memphis) the games scores were 145, 147, 165, 157 and 142. But beyond the “so-so” defense, the two main reasons of those high scores were pace and Read more

Tags: College Basketball Louisville Cardinals Seton Hall Pirates Andrew Lange

College Basketbal Betting Free Play: Alabama Crimson Tide at Missouri Tigers

01.08.2013     06:59 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Alabama at Missouri -9 O/U 133
Recommendation: Missouri

If you look at Alabama's in SEC play last year, they didn't lose a game by more than 10 points despite going 9-7. But the Crimson Tide were a different team in part because they had JaMychal Green and Tony Mitchell on the front line. Even on off shooting nights, Bama's defense always kept them in the games. Green and Mitchell are obviously gone and while Alabama still defends, they simply aren't as strong. Tonight they go on the road to face Missouri with six freshmen and sophomores. We saw this team absolutely wilt under the pressure of VCU's press (16 turnovers, 39% FGs). They return guard Andrew Steele who will certainly help but reports indicate that he is not 100%. Missouri isn't as frenetic as VCU but they'll undoubtedly extend their pressure and they also have the size up front to force Alabama to shoot from the outside. It is a long season, but Alabama's home losses to Mercer and Tulane are big red Read more

Tags: College Basketball Alabama Crimson Tide Missouri Tigers Andrew Lange

College Basketball Handicapping: Oddsmakers, bettors overvalue Pittsburgh Panthers

01.07.2013     01:38 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Everyone knows Ken Pomeroy has a huge impact of the betting markets. Rarely do we see pointspreads or totals stray too far from Pomery's "predictions" unless there is a significant injury. But one ranking in particular has caught my eye. Last season, Pittsburgh finished 63rd (22-17, 5-13 Big East) in Pomeroy's rankings. Given Pitt's history of success and returning talent, the Panthers opened the year ranked 22nd – a mark that seemed fairly reasonable. But for whatever reason, Pitt skyrocketed up the rankings despite playing a soft, home friendly schedule. Heading into December 19th's game against Delaware State, the Panthers were 5th, despite playing one legitimate opponent; Michigan, on a neutral court and the Wolverines won 67-62. There were a handful of decent foes like Lehigh, Delaware and Detroit, but those games were at home and Pitt as expected won rather easily.

So then Big East play started and despite its very limited resume, Pitt closed as a 6-point home favorite over Cincinnati – a game the Bearcats won outright 70-61. Then last weekend, the Panthers took to the road to face Rutgers and were getting bet like people already knew the Read more

Tags: College Basketball Pittsburgh Panthers Georgetown Hoyas Andrew Lange


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