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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Stanford Cardinal at NC State Wolfpack

12.18.2012     11:29 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Stanford at NC State -7.5 O/U 142
Recommendation: NC State


I think Stanford is in for a difficult time tonight at NC State. The Cardinal will be playing their first road game of the season clear across the country against a quality foe eager for a marquee win. I typically don't make much of revenge angles but it is important to note that last year NC State traveled to Palo Alto had a comfortable lead and then allowed Stanford to close the game on a 17-1 run – much of that run occurred without CJ Leslie who was sitting due to cramps.  Offensively, Stanford has really struggled to shoot the basketball despite not having played a true road game. In losses to Belmont, Minnesota and Missouri, the Cardinal shot only 42% from the floor and an even more alarming 14-of-64, 21.8% from three. Stanford also wasn't a great road team last year. Their six PAC-12 losses were by margins of 11, 13, 13, 10, 11 and 1 (at Utah). But while a lot lines up for NC State, Read more


Tags: College Basketball Stanford Cardinal NC State Wolfpack Andrew Lange




College Basketbal Betting Free Play: UL-Monroe Warhawks at Florida State Seminoles

12.17.2012     12:53 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
UL-Monroe at Florida State -25
Recommendation: Florida State


UL-Monroe is arguably the worst team in college basketball. Already this season we've seen them lose to Oklahoma by 34, Arkansas-Little Rock by 25 and last time out, at home, by 29 to Southern. Last year's ULM team won three games and they were forced to reload with JC players. They've purposely scheduled fewer games so the kids can hit the books harder in order to boost the team's APR. The bottom line is if and when ULM covers, it will come as a result of other teams clearing their bench and calling off the dogs not because they came through the backdoor with a flurry of points late. Florida State is going through a transition and head coach Leonard Hamilton's main concern is getting his kids to buy into his style of play. There have been pitfalls including home losses to South Alabama and Mercer but when focused, the Seminoles have shown they still have the ability to outclass teams at home (see: 95-68 vs. Buffalo; 91-59 vs. Maine). With finals out of the way and nothing significant looming on deck until the weekend, I expect the Seminoles to be focused for this contest.



Tags: College Basketball UL-Monroe Warhawks Florida State Seminoles Andrew Lange




College Basketball Handicapping: How important is the first meeting to a rematch?

12.17.2012     07:39 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Interesting theory in play tonight with Louisiana Tech and Arkansas-Little Rock hooking up for a second time this season. In the first meeting, Tech rolled to a 70-52 home win. For tonight's rematch, they are currently priced as 2-point road chalk. I unearthed my College Basketball Prospectus from a few years back and remember an article written by Ken Pomeroy on second meets. The records are a little dated but over a five-year span, Pomeroy found that teams that won the first meeting at home by 20-29 points were a relatively modest 283-202 (.583) in the road rematch. Teams that won by 10-19 points (like Louisiana Tech) were 781-759 (.507). Now if it is the road team doing to initial butt-kicking, they win the rematch around 80 percent of the time at home.

The point here is that while Louisiana Tech may be the better overall team, the end result from the first meeting shouldn’t have much of an impact if any into your handicap. Perhaps more important: Will Little Rock turn the ball over 19 times like it did in Ruston? How concerned should I be over Tech's recent road losses to Northwestern State and McNeese? Is Little Rock's 7-0 record at home for real? Bottom line Read more


Tags: College Basketball Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting Free Play: UW-Milwaukee Panthers at Fairfield Staggs

12.12.2012     08:37 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wisc-Milwaukee at Fairfield -11.5
Recommendation: Fairfield


My strike price for this being a full play was -10 and unfortunately, the betting markets are well aware of UW-Milwaukee's shortcoming of late. I still think the right side for tonight's contest at Fairfield is the chalk – even with some of the value gone – and will personally play the Staggs in some capacity. Over the last three games, Milwaukee has been simply awful and after watching them lose to Buffalo by 20 and needing overtime to dispose of woeful Northern Illinois, I stepped in and faded the Panthers in what ended up being a 34-point loss to DePaul. Head coach Rob Jeter is at a loss for words when trying to describe his squad’s play. I am too. Even with a more spirited effort tonight, the Panthers just don't have the personnel to compete on the road against a quality opponent. Fairfield isn't the ideal team to be laying double-digits but I like the quotes I read Read more


Tags: College Basketball UW-Milwaukee Panthers Fairfield Staggs Andrew Lange




College Basketball ATS Analysis: Buy low on Northern Colorado

12.11.2012     07:14 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It's college basketball finals week which gives us a chance to catch our breath and analyze the first quarter of the season. Throughout the week we'll be taking a look at ATS successes and failures and trying to project whether or not the trend will continue.

Northern Colorado: I really liked Northern Colorado heading into the season but thus far they've really disappointed. They have yet to win a game against a DI opponent and more importantly are 0-6 ATS. The program won 21 games in 2010, lost a host of key seniors in 2011 and dropped to 9-19, but returned practically everyone for 2012. As mentioned, it hasn't worked out but I'm not going to give up on this squad just yet.

Will it continue? I don't think so and here is why. For starters, UNC has always had a strong home/road dichotomy. Greeley is at elevation and a difficult place to get to. Remember that 21-win campaign? They didn't lose a single game at Butler Hancock Pavillon. So far this season, they've played one lined game at home and it came against a very strong Wyoming club. UNC actually had a lead in that contest before Wyoming pulled off yet another incredible second half Read more


Tags: College Basketball Northern Colorado Bears Andrew Lange




College Basketball ATS Analysis: Can Illinois-Chicago hold its betting value?

12.11.2012     06:27 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It's college basketball finals week which gives us a chance to catch our breath and analyze the first quarter of the season. Throughout the week we'll be taking a look at ATS successes and failures and trying to project whether or not the trend will continue.

Illinois-Chicago: At the end of last season, UIC had eight wins and ranked 290th nationally according to Ken Pomeroy. There were flashes of competence and a few nice spread covers but the Flames looked as if they were still going to be outmanned on most nights despite heading into the 2012-12 season with a third-year head coach and four returning starters. But here we are, a month into the season, and UIC is 8-1 SU and 7-1 ATS. And their schedule wasn't easy. They lost by seven at New Mexico as 16.5-point underdogs. Beat Iona by five as a 7.5-point underdog on a neutral court. Strolled into Northwestern as double-digit underdogs as won by six. And last time out took down Colorado State as a short home dog. And if you're looking for  reason why all of that took place, defense would be a good place to start.

Will it continue? With the departure of Butler and a few others Read more


Tags: College Basketball Illinois-Chicago Flames Andrew Lange




College Basketball ATS Analysis: Drexel hopes to turn corner after win over Princeton

12.10.2012     11:31 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It's college basketball finals week which gives us a chance to catch our breath and analyze the first quarter of the season. Throughout the week we'll be taking a look at ATS successes and failures and trying to project whether or not the trend will continue.

Drexel - Since Chris Fouch went down, the Dragons are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS. Even with Fouch the first three games of the season, Drexel was 0-3 ATS. It wasn’t until Saturday's win at Princeton as 6-point underdogs that this squad got its first spread cover of the season. The loss of Fouch is huge but oddsmakers and the market have adjusted. The adjustment however obviously hasn't been enough. One of the biggest disappointments for the Dragons has been their defense. Last year, they allowed over a point per possession in nine of their 36 games. This season, they've already done it five times.

Will it continue? Surprisingly, there were rumblings early on that this team simply wasn't playing hard – difficult to fathom under Bruiser Flint. The team is hoping the win over Princeton can be a springboard to better things. Drexel's betting value comes from defense and simply Read more


Tags: College Basketball Drexel Dragons Andrew Lange




College Basketball ATS Analysis: UMass falls short of bettors' expectations

12.10.2012     11:09 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It's college basketball finals week which gives us a chance to catch our breath and analyze the first quarter of the season. Throughout the week we'll be taking a look at ATS successes and failures and trying to project whether or not the trend will continue.

UMass – The Minutemen finally got on the board against the spread with a 72-66 win at Northeastern last time out – albeit by a single bucket. Prior to that, UMass was 0-6 ATS; a real disappointment for a team that had moderate expectations heading into the season. The first issue is this squad isn't smart and teams that lack smarts have a difficult time winning by margin. In games they were laying -11, -8 and -7.5 they won by margins of 1, 2 and 3. The next problem is UMass isn't strong enough defensively to step up in class. In games against NC State, Tennessee and Miami, the Minutemen lost by margins of 18, 14 and 7 – never sniffing a pointspread cover in any of the three.

Will it continue? This team has talent; enough to match last year's 25 wins. The problem is they are off 25-win season as oppose to the 15-15 mark they posted in 2011. With an Read more


Tags: College Basketball UMass Minutemen Andrew Lange




College Basketball ATS Analysis: Creighton Blue Jays continue to cover spreads

12.10.2012     07:47 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It's college basketball finals week which gives us a chance to catch our breath and analyze the first quarter of the season. Throughout the week we'll be taking a look at ATS successes and failures and trying to project whether or not the trend will continue.

Creighton Blue Jays: What makes Creighton’s 7-1 ATS record unique is that preseason expectations were very high. This is a team that won 29 games last season and returned practically everyone including their star, Doug McDermott. So how have they been able to make their backers money? Amazingly, it’s been defense. We mentioned last season’s 29 wins yet the Blue Jays were a .500 team against the spread – in large part because they couldn’t defend. Creighton allowed over a point per possessions, didn’t force turnovers, and simply outscored the competition – something they were very good at – in order to win. This season, despite more than a few inflated pointspreads, the Blue Jays are actually defending. After returning home from a Thanksgiving tournament, Creighton was blitzed at home by Boise State, 83-70. But what they’ve done since Read more


Tags: College Basketball Creighton Blue Jays Andrew Lange




College Basketball ATS Analysis: Charlotte 49ers are making noise

12.10.2012     07:40 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It's college basketball finals week which gives us a chance to catch our breath and analyze the first quarter of the season. Throughout the week we'll be taking a look at ATS successes and failures and trying to project whether or not the trend will continue.

Charlotte 49ers: Head coach Alan Major's third season is off to a great start at 9-0 SU, 6-1 ATS. Expectations were modest heading into the campaign with a handful of newcomers and second-year players expected to contribute. The key for the 49ers has been depth with 8-10 guys seeing consistent minutes. That has allowed Major to play more pressure defense and the results have showed with no opponent topping 69 points despite all but one contest featuring 65 possessions or more.

Will it continue? The level of competition hasn't been great but the 49ers did win outright at Davidson as 9-point underdogs. Of course they beat the Wildcats by 13 last year, started A-10 play off 2-0 with wins against Richmond and St. Joe's, but crashed hard the second half of the season (4-12 SU, 5-9-1 ATS). This year's edition is clearly more talented so we don't project that big of a slide. The benefit Read more


Tags: College Basketball Charlotte 49ers Andrew Lange



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