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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Eastern Kentucky at Eastern Illinois

02.02.2012     09:41 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Eastern Kentucky at Eastern Illinois -2.5 O/U 127.5
Recommendation: Under


Not sure why this total is getting bet up as both Eastern Illinois and Eastern Kentucky prefer to play at a slow pace and aren't particularly sharp when it comes to shooting the basketball. In conference play, EIU is averaging an awful 0.91 points per possession. EKU is better though the Colonels average about 63 possessions per game. Both meetings last year were lined in the low 120's and went under. And perhaps one of the strongest trends – unknown to most bettors – is that Eastern Illinois has gone under the total in 49 of its last 62 league games. Also, there is absolutely no reason why EIU should be favored by as high as -3 in this contest. Play accordingly. 



Tags: College Basketball Eastern Illinois Panthers Eastern Kentucky Colonels Andrew Lange




Sunday College Basketball Free Play: Montana Grizzlies at Portland State Vikings

01.29.2012     07:35 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Montana at Portland State +4 O/U 143
Recommendation: Portland State


Montana gets somewhat of a break by having two days in between conference road games but I still feel this is going to be a difficult spot for the Grizzlies. The second game of back-to-back road tilts is particularly tough in the Big Sky because schools are spaced out and they don't have the luxury of top notch travel. There are some great examples of letdowns in these situations: Earlier this season, Montana won at Northern Arizona and two days later lost by 16 at Weber State. Weber State, the best team in the Big Sky, won by 15 at Sacramento State on Thursday but turned right around and lost at 6-14 Idaho State yesterday. Montana State upset Portland State on Thursday and guess what took place on Saturday? The Bobcats lost by 17 at Eastern Washington. With only the top six teams in the Big Sky making the conference tournament, this is a very important game for Portland State (4-4). The Read more


Tags: College Basketball Montana Grizzlies Portland State Vikings Andrew Lange




College Basketball Free Play: Ball State Cardinals at Ohio Bobcats

01.28.2012     06:53 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Ball State +9 at Ohio O/U 127.5
Recommendation: Ball State


I can't help but notice that when Ball State and Ohio hook up, the games tend to be pretty damn close. Last year, the two teams split with Ball State winning by three in overtime in the MAC Tournament and Ohio eking out of 61-60 victory in Muncie. In 2010, both meetings went to overtime. And the two years previous to that featured games decided by seven and two points. The Bobcats have four MAC wins this season and only one was by double-digits. The recently beat Miami and Western Michigan by four and five points respectively – two teams a notch below Ball State. The Cardinals come in off a disappointing second half meltdown at home against Akron. I expect a good effort here as a split on the road vs. Ohio and Buffalo is crucial for the league race. There is such a huge discrepancy between the weaker West and stronger East and it has certainly been reflected in the lines of these matchups. I think Read more


Tags: College Basketball Ball State Cardinals Ohio Bobcats Andrew Lange




College Basketball Free Play: Washington Huskies at Arizona State Sun Devils

01.26.2012     07:00 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Washington -7.5 at Arizona State O/U 137.5
Recommendation: Under


In seven PAC-12 games this season, Arizona State has topped 137 points once. It came against the fastest team in the league, Oregon State, who also happens to be incapable of stopping teams from scoring (57.4% effective FG% vs. PAC-12). In that game, there were 71 possessions and ASU shot 59% from the floor and 53% from three. If not for ASU's out-of-the-norm effort and a 45-point second half, that game probably lands in the low to mid 130s as oppose to 142. Outside of that game, ASU's games vs. the PAC-12 have averaged 58.6 possessions per game. Since losing to Colorado 87-69, Washington head coach Lorenzo Romar has been preaching better shot selection and defense and for the most part, it has worked as the Huskies have won three of their last four conference games, holding those four teams to 53, 65, 69 and 63 points. Injuries concerns for both squads with UW's CJ Wilcox and ASU's Read more


Tags: College Basketball Washington Huskies Arizona State Sun Devils Andrew Lange




College Basketball Free Play: Bradley Braves at Southern Illinois Salukis

01.24.2012     07:01 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Bradley +7 at Southern Illinois O/U 138
Recommendation: Bradley


Why on earth is Southern Illinois laying -7 in a conference game? I understand Bradley is not very good and the Salukis are coming off a 85-42 beat down at Wichita, but this number is in my opinion way too high. Situational aside, let's look at the facts: Both teams have faced similar league schedules and have nearly identical statistical profiles. They struggle to defend on a consistent basis and have no real edge in any facet of the game. SIU has managed to pick up a few more league wins and by default deserves to be favored, but I expected to see this game lined in the -3 range. SIU won the first meeting in Peoria but shot an uncharacteristically high 57% from the floor. Unless that type of effort occurs again, I think the road team can stick around and make this a game.




Tags: College Basketball Bradley Braves Southern Illinois Salukis Andrew Lange




College Hoops Free Pick: Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions

01.19.2012     07:24 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Illinois at Penn State +3.5 O/U 123.5
Recommendation: Penn State


It has been quite a turnaround for Illinois of late. Less than a month ago, this team had the look of a .500 team in Big Ten play. But three straight close wins, including a 79-74 victory over Ohio State has the Illini atop the league standings. The win over the Buckeyes was particularly intriguing because Illinois got 43 points from Brandon Paul and as a team shot 60% from the floor and 61% from three. Prior to that, Illinois was hard-pressed to shoot 45% in game. Regardless, off a monster win, and in first place...and with Wisconsin on deck, the Illini take a trip to face 9-10, 1-5 Penn State. The Nittany Lions are not a good basketball team, but they've shown me enough to think they could give Illinois some trouble. PSU beat Purdue on this floor by 20 and battled Indiana to a six-point loss. Note that Illinois may be 15-3 but winning by margin hasn't come easy. They beat Cornell by four, Read more


Tags: College Basketball Illinois Fighting Illini Penn State Nittany Lions Andrew Lange




College Basketball Free Play: Maryland Terrapins at Florida State Seminoles

01.17.2012     06:08 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Maryland at Florida State
Recommendation: Maryland +6.5 1st half


Beating North Carolina at home wasn't that monumental of an achievement for Florida State – despite what the Seminoles’ student body showcased after the buzzer. However, hanging 90 on the Tar Heels in route to a 33-point victory is no doubt going to make FSU's players feel good about themselves. Letdowns happen all of the time in college hoops and the odds of that occurring to the Seminoles – for at least parts of tonight's game – are pretty good. I will say that of all of the potential letdown victims, it is the teams with elite level defenses which are typically the least susceptible – something that FSU without question has. The one thing the Seminoles don't have though is the ability to consistently knock down shots. Against a majority of the better teams on their schedule, the Seminoles failed to top 1.0 point per possession. Maryland is a different squad Read more


Tags: College Basketball Maryland Terrapins Florida State Seminoles Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting: Kentucky Wildcats struggle to cover pointspreads

01.16.2012     02:17 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Typically, the best teams in college basketball post against the spread records around the .500 mark. They obviously win a lot which is correlated with covering spreads but on the same token, the extra "tax" and attraction to bettors often keeps them from putting up great ATS numbers. Take last year from example. North Carolina (16-17 ATS), Duke (20-16 ATS), Kansas (18-17 ATS), Pittsburgh (15-14 ATS), Syracuse (15-18 ATS), Ohio State (18-16 ATS) and Kentucky (16-16 ATS) were all right around the .500 mark. There were some expectations, most notably UConn (23-12 ATS), but the Huskies came from way off the grid to go 10-1 ATS during the postseason.

But this year, something odd is taking place. Kentucky, which is considered to be one of the best teams in the country, is a horrific 3-13-1/4-12-1/4-13 ATS (depending on what numbers you go by). Based on one set of numbers I saw, the Wildcats haven't covered a game since November 19 – after starting the season 3-0 ATS. So why has Kentucky been such a poor spread team? No question, there is a tax tacked onto the Cats – but the same can be said about a lot teams. But unlike those teams, Kentucky is young, Read more


Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Andrew Lange




NCAA Basketball Betting Trends: 71% of Missouri Valley games have gone OVER the total

01.16.2012     01:12 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Building on the blog we posted the other day about the increase in scoring in the Missouri Valley Conference this season. The MVC has long been known as a grind-it-out league that on occasion sees a team or two willing to play up-tempo. Below is a chart of the team-by-team yearly pace rankings according to Ken Pom. As you can see, from 2008-10, the MVC's average rank was between 233 and 241. This season however, we've seen that number climb to 173 as half the league ranks 143 or higher. I think we'll see the overall pace numbers dip once these teams play more conference games which brings us to our next point. Amazingly, 25 of the MVC's 35 league games have gone over the total thus far. The only two teams to not trend towards the OVER in league play are ironically the league's two top offense, Creighton and Wichita State. And only one team (Drake, 6-9 O/U) has trended UNDER from a season long perspective. Read more


Tags: College Basketball Andrew Lange




Saturday College Basketball Free Pick: Ole Miss Rebels at Auburn Tigers

01.14.2012     06:54 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Mississippi at Auburn +1 O/U 124.5
Recommendation: Auburn


We are getting to that point of the college basketball season where we can start utilizing spot plays to our advantage. I see one today in the SEC that I am particularly fond of. On Wednesday, Ole Miss was in an ideal situation – at home, needing a win, facing an opponent off a amazing performance. The Rebels took care of business by beating Arkansas 71-63 to move to 1-1 in SEC play. Now they go on the road and are likely to get a pretty good effort from their opponent. Auburn has lost three games in a row including two to conference foes Vanderbilt and Kentucky. I watched their game against Kentucky and came away impressed -- the Tigers actual led in the second half and were tied with about seven minutes to go before Kentucky finally flexed its muscle. Personnel wise, I see little to no difference between Ole Miss and Auburn and feel the spot is prime for a Tigers victory.




Tags: College Basketball Ole Miss Rebels Auburn Tigers Andrew Lange



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