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College Basketball Betting News: Breaking down the Big XII Conference
12.12.2011 02:01 PM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
With finals exams upon us, the college basketball card is light so I'll be providing conference breakdowns throughout the week.
Big XII
- Bill Self was worried about KU's offense but the Jayhawks just ripped off 77 vs. Florida Atlantic, 70 in a 65-possession game vs. South Florida, 88 vs. Long Beach and 78 vs. Ohio State. Make no mistake, Kansas isn't go to score 75+ every night, but I think they'll have a much easier time scoring against the Big XII than what was originally projected after a few so-so performances in Maui. Don't get too high on Missouri -- the Tigers are once against coasting through the non-conference. But even with a host of talent, the Tigers always seem to underachieve when the heat gets turned up (see: 1-5 SU finish last year). Also note that their three solid non-conference wins were in reality nothing special with Notre Dame and Villanova way down and Cal not being able to play on the road. I like Baylor. I like them a lot. The only problem is they may have too much talent. That and they play dumb at times. Keep an eye out for BU’s three upcoming non-conference games against teams that are well coached and can take
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College Basketball Betting News: Breaking down the Big Ten Conference
12.12.2011 08:18 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
With finals exams upon us, the college basketball card is light so I'll be providing conference breakdowns throughout the week.
Big Ten -
Even with the loss at Kansas (no Sullinger), Ohio State is unquestionably the class of the league. The one thing I don't like Wisconsin is its current offensive blueprint. In terms of point distribution, 41.4% of their points come from beyond the three-point line while only 11.9% of their points come from the charity stripe. That ratio was 36.1%/18.9% last year. Now on the flip side, Wisconsin defends the three-point line extremely well (24.6%) and doesn't foul but how is this team going to win on a consistent basis if they don't shoot 40% from three – a tough thing to do in Big Ten play. Add in the lack of free throw attempts (12 per game) and you can already sense there are going to be a lot of game scores in the low 100's. Ultimately, defense and good coaching will keep the Badgers at the top of the standings though I think it is going to be more of a struggle this year. Michigan State isn't going to be nearly as bad as the offseason losses suggested. I was really impressed with their win at Gonzaga. Purdue is
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College Basketball Betting News: ACC looks way down outside of Duke and UNC
12.12.2011 07:35 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
With finals exams upon us, the college basketball card is light so I'll be providing conference breakdowns throughout the week.
ACC -
Duke and North Carolina are clearly established as the league's elite while Boston College may not win a conference game. The rest of the league though looks to be a toss up with everyone showing a lot more weakness than strength. Virginia, Virginia Tech and Florida State are off to decent starts in part because of their commitment to defend. Offensively though, there are going to be plenty of nights where all three teams struggle to score 60. But that seems to be the norm in the ACC this year. Miami, Georgia Tech and Clemson are all below average offensively. Outside of North Carolina and Duke, the best ACC offense I have seen is NC State though the Wolfpack don't defend and look very undisciplined under first-year head coach Mark Gottfried. Maryland is a work in progress under Mark Turgeon and could go one of two ways. If the Terps eventually buy into what Turgeon preaches, they'll survive. If not, it could get really ugly. Wake Forest is improved and will assuredly better last season's 1-15 ACC mark. As bad as the ACC
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College Basketball Free Pick: Wyoming Cowboys at Colorado Buffaloes
12.09.2011 06:47 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Wyoming
at
Colorado
-5.5 O/U 131
Recommendation: Colorado
Last week I called out Tulane's suspect 9-0 start and was able to cash an outright underdog ticket with Wofford on its home court. I'm going to use the same theory tonight with Wyoming. Like Tulane, the Cowboys have been playing low-level competition (340th SOS non-conference) in the comforts of home and building confidence. Nothing wrong with that, especially for a program in need of a facelift, but we got a sneak peak of what we can expect to happen more frequently when Wyoming traveled to Wisconsin-Green Bay earlier this season and lost 52-44. I will give first-year head coach Larry Shyatt credit – the team is playing hard and defending each and every night. But tonight's opponent Colorado is a big step up in class in terms of offensive firepower and I think Wyoming won't be able to maintain its gaudy 94.8 points per possession defense. I'll admit Colorado is a tough team to lay points with in
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College Basketball Betting Trends: Taking a look at Over and Under teams
12.08.2011 07:57 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
A quick glance at teams that have trended over and under the total thus far and whether or not it will continue.
UNDER TEAMS
Virginia
(1-5 O/U) - After being lined 123 against TCU and the game landing 114 back in mid-November, UVA's game have routinely been in the 113-118 price range. The capabilities of opposing offenses will improve once ACC play starts but the Cavaliers play great defense and are more than comfortable playing games with 60 possessions or fewer.
Kansas
(1-6 O/U) - Bill Self noted earlier this week that the Jayhawks are going to be forced to win a lot of "ugly games" due to a drop-off in offensive talent. They went flying over the total last time out against Long Beach (145.5, 88-80 final) but the fact remains that KU is relying more on defense and no longer has as much scoring punch.
UConn
(1-4 O/U) - The Huskies only "over" came in overtime against Florida State. There would have been some more overs had the games been lined. This small trend seems to be random as UConn is playing at a fairly normal pace and looking to run when given
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College Basketball Free Pick: Portland Pilots at Boise State Broncos
12.07.2011 10:06 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Portland
at
Boise State
Recommendation: Portland +8.5 1st half
At some point, the betting markets are going to outpace Boise State. Tonight's game against Portland opened -12 but was bet up to a rich -15. The Broncos have dominated weaker foes at home like Utah, Northridge, and Idaho State but I think they'll get a stiffer test tonight against the Pilots. Portland defeated Boise 88-79 last year and though the Pilots lost a lot from that team, they should be familiar with what Boise is going to try to accomplish. Portland has played a very tough schedule including last time out at Saint Louis. They got buried early but didn't quit in the second half and will have a much easier time making baskets tonight. Boise has the ability to wear down teams with its press and up-tempo offense and I think we'll see Portland try to come out and force the Broncos to defend. With the inflated price, I'll call for the underdog to stick around early as we make a play on the
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College Basketball Free Play: Tulane Green Wave at Wofford Terriers
12.06.2011 07:30 AM
Andrew Lange
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Tulane
at
Wofford
+3 O/U 122.5
Recommendation: Wofford
It is early and there aren't a lot of situational plays, but here is one's that I think we can take advantage of. Tulane is a program on the rise and seemed to have taken the first step in becoming respectable – winning at home against a marquee opponent. Georgia Tech may not seem marquee, but compared to the rest of Tulane's non-conference schedule, it bordered on monumetal. Remember, the Green Wave played one of the easiest non-conference schedules in the country last year (started 12-3) but finished 1-14 when the competition stiffened. This year, a similar concept with some truly horrific opponents (five of which 328th or worse according to Ken Pom). So because Tulane played an easy schedule BUT proved itself with a home win over Georgia Tech, they are now laying points (and getting bet) for a short turnaround road game against a comparable foe. Keep in mind that in their lone road test earlier this
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College Basketball Handicapping: Middle Tennessee State passes eye test
12.05.2011 07:46 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
I took my son to see Middle Tennessee State play Akron on Sunday – a close up encounter with a Blue Raiders squad that came in 7-1 SU, 7-0 ATS. From the opening tip, it was clear that MTSU was the better of the two teams (77-53 win). And I'm taking into account that from Akron's perspective, the situation didn’t set up for a gutsy performance – on the road, 1 pm local start, empty arena. The Zips could beat the Blue Raiders at home, but at a neutral site, MTSU is at least 5-6 points better – maybe more.
The first thing that stood out was MTSU's athleticism and length. We use terms like that all of the time to describe teams but in this case it is very real. The guards are quick and the post players run the floor well and make it difficult for opposing teams to get easy looks in the paint. The difference between mid-major and power conference teams often comes down to smarts. MTSU isn't that far removed personnel wise than a majority of the SEC, yet they are very well coached and play team basketball. Five players scored between nine and 19 points. On missed shots, they got out and ran, while on makes, they were patient on offense and didn't settle
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College Basketball Free Play: Illinois-Chicago Flames at UW-Milwaukee Panthers
12.03.2011 07:59 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Illinois-Chicago +15.5 at UW-Milwaukee O/U 126.5
Recommendation: Illinois-Chicago
Now that conference play has started for a few leagues, I'm always looking for inflated prices that are based on preseason results. Wisconsin-Milwaukee is a prime example. The Panthers are 6-1 with a lone loss to Michigan State. They also beat Loyola by 17 to open Horizon play. So what happens? They are being asked to lay -15.5 today against UIC. Last season, at no point was UWM a double-digit favorite in Horizon play, let alone -15.5. Their highest price tag was -9 vs. UIC – a game UWM won 87-75. And while they closed -10.5 vs. Loyola (and covered) on Thursday, the adjustment is far too much as Loyola doesn’t look much different than UIC at this point. Howard Moore is in his second year as head coach at UIC and it isn’t a stretch to assume some sort of improvement (see: win over Evansville, three-point loss at UW-Green Bay). But beyond it all, here is the key stat to consider: UIC went 2-17 against Horizon League foes last year. Of those 17 losses, exactly
two
came by more than 14 points. I’ve seen enough Horizon action over the last few
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College Basketball Free Play: Florida International Panthers at Georgia State Panthers
12.01.2011 07:33 AM
Andrew Lange
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Florida Intl.
+9.5 at
Georgia State
O/U 134.5
Recommendation: Florida International
Over the last two years, Florida International has lost 19 games to non-power conference opponents. Not really a sign of a good team, right? But it is the manner in which they lost that intrigues me. Of those 19 games, 16 were by single digits, and two others by 10 and 12. Only once have we seen this team blown out against a comparable foe. Head coach Isiah Thomas recently noted how impressed he was with his team's
toughness
and willingness to never quit. There is one blemish on FIU's resume – a bad loss to Arkansas-Pine Bluff. The Panthers won at George Mason, hung with Virginia Tech for 30 minutes, lost by eight to a respectable Oral Robert squad and just defeated a Coastal Carolina team that has wins over LSU and
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