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NCAAB Handicapper Free Play: UT-Martin Skyhawks at Arkansas State Indians
11.17.2011 08:00 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Tennessee Martin
at
Arkansas State
Recommendation: Arkansas State -5 1st half
It was an embarrassing performance by Arkansas State last time out as it snapped a 13-game home winning streak in a 77-46 loss to Missouri State. Head coach John Brady was to but it lightly, not a happy camper in the
postgame press conference
. The Indians are a capable team that won the Sun Belt West Division last year. But after a 0-2 start, there is an obvious sense of urgency for this group. That is where UT-Martin comes into play. The Skyhawks are one of the worst teams in DI. They won just seven games last year and all of them came against non-DI or lower-tier OVC teams. They were pounded by Louisville in their opener and trailed Ohio by 19 at half before the Bobcats quit and limped to a nine-point victory. I expect to see
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Tags:
College Basketball
Arkansas State Indians
UT-Martin Skyhawks
Andrew Lange
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NCAA Basketball Gambling Notes: Charlotte searches for right lineup
11.16.2011 09:09 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Some good
postgame notes
on Charlotte following its 77-75 overtime win at Central Michigan last night. The 49ers are a team I marked at "bet on" and even though we fell a point short with our 20* -- two missed FTs with less than 10 seconds left! -- we can use this information to our benefit moving forward. Second year head coach Alan Major is still trying to find a lineup that clicks. He did multiple mass substitutions and admitted after the game that the 29 three-point attempts were a bit much. Charlotte plays two non-boarded teams (Lamer and East Tennessee State) before traveling to Wright State next Saturday. I'll be looking for more spots to play the 49ers as they continue to find the right pieces for what has the potential to be a solid team.
Tags:
College Basketball
Charlotte 49ers
Andrew Lange
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NCAA Basketball Gambling Free Play: Colorado State Rams at Stanford Cardinal
11.15.2011 03:01 PM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Colorado State
+8 at
Stanford
O/U 138.5
Recommendation: Colorado State
If you've followed the college basketball betting markets over the last few days, you know that there are a TON of opinions out there. I've seen totals move six points to the over, then go back to the opener, and then six points to the under...all within the span of 20 minutes. Later in the season, I'm much more respecting of the market and its movements but this early, no one knows anything and a majority of bets are based on feel rather than hard evidence. That philosophy can be good but it can also offer opportunities for bettors looking for value when lines get too far out of whack. Take tonight's Stanford-Colorado State game for example. The game opened Stanford -4.5/-5 which to me was a fair line. But after a wave of money, we now see the Cardinal an 8-point favorite. Colorado State may not have much size but this is a really good basketball team. In six games against BYU, San
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College Basketball Free Betting Pick: Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Oklahoma State
11.15.2011 09:31 AM
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Ark-Pine Bluff
at
Oklahoma State
-24 O/U 128.5
Recommendation: Over
Like most SWAC teams, Arkansas-Pine Bluff ran the gauntlet during last year's preseason by playing a host of high profile schools – most of which were ugly affairs. It essentially boiled down to how much did the opposition want to score? For example, Missouri hung 91, Stanford 92, and four others reached the 82-point mark or better. The only games that didn't see those types of marks were against slow tempo squads like Nebraska, Northwestern, Air Force and Denver. Oklahoma State has spent all offseason talking about how fast it wants to play. You still have to have guys who can put the ball in the bucket which may be an issue when the competition stiffens, but in this case, the Cowboys are presented with an excellent shot to put up a big number. Last time out, OSU held Texas A&M Corpus Christ to 11 first half points en route to a 71-39 blowout win. It should be noted that
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College Basketball Betting Notes for 11/14/2011
11.14.2011 09:49 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
A couple of leans with various totals for Monday's college basketball action. I ended up passing from a service play perspective as the lines are for the most part in a good place.
Notre Dame-Detroit
- The Titans are going to try and push the pace but their shot selection is always questionable and despite some personnel losses, Notre Dame will be solid defensively. Last season, the Titans score 55 vs. Syracuse, and 64/51 vs. Butler. The Irish lost a few players this offseason and Abromaitis is out. They obviously slowed the tempo down last year and had success so I would imagine they'd do the same here. That being said, the Irish are efficient and will force Detroit to defend, something the Titans don't thrive in doing. Still, above 140, the under seems to be the right play.
Washington State-Gonzaga
- Wazzu wants to play up-tempo but will need Reggie Moore for that to take place. Moore is questionable (groin) and so is Faisal Aden (concussion, upgraded to probable). Even if they play, the Cougars are perimeter oriented and may have a difficult time scoring easy buckets. The Zags will play at a decent pace, but with their size
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Washington State Cougars
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Portland Pilots
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Friday College Basketball Gambling News and Notes Part II
11.11.2011 10:38 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Earlier this morning, I made a few observations for today's college basketball card. Following my post came the typical early season feeding frenzy as the betting markets went crazy. He is what I noticed…
For starters, Pinnacle hung totals on all the non-TV games just like they did last year. The limits were something like $200 but that didn't stop bettors from moving them 5 points or more. I will say that the numbers they put out were better than last year with some currently close to the opening number. 5Dimes pretty much copied Pinnacle and so did the Greek. Overall, the template looks to be the same as last season. The only question is once the markets settle down, will CRIS post totals? I went back through the archives to the first full slate last season. Unfortunately, CRIS didn’t post totals on a lot of those games so I would imagine they’ll stick to that game plan. If you are in Vegas, Hilton posted totals on a majority of the games and Coasts and Caesars did as well. Some other Vegas shops were kind enough to accommodate the local fan base by hanging a total on the Missouri State-Nevada matchup.
I broke down practically every
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Friday College Basketball Gambling News and Notes
11.11.2011 06:59 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Consider this my Friday college basketball stream of consciousness. Enjoy...
There are about 5-6 games that are lined 8-10 points short on the favorite. I don't know specifically which ones (I have a few ideas) but it seems like the last few years, there are always favorites of say -17.5 who if the game was played two weeks later would be -25. Point being, if you are going to get involved in higher lined contests, lay the points...No clue what is going to happen with totals today. CRIS did its normal BS of posting random televised games. How can you hang a total on Ole Miss and UL-Monroe -- a game projected to be a blowout -- and not BYU-Utah State -- a short lined rivalry game with a yearly history? Copy Ken Pom's number, adjust for injuries or suspensions, throw it out there for $250 limit, let it get tossed around a while, and by late afternoon, everyone is happy.
As for the games, let's roll down the card...Wright State might not score 40 points tonight against Ohio State. The Raiders lost their top four scorers and putting the ball in the bucket last year was like pulling teeth...Brent and I talked about Illinois being down making Loyola-Chicago live at
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NCAA Basketball Free Pick: Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Mississippi State Bulldogs
11.07.2011 07:57 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Eastern Kentucky
at
Mississippi State
Recommendation: Under 63.5 1st half
Eastern Kentucky is known for two things: slow pace and three-point shooting. The Colonels ranked 327th in tempo the last two season and with three of their top four scorers gone, I project
points will be hard to come by
in the non-conference. Mississippi State returns only two starters but welcome in a few transfers and a highly regarded recruiting class. EKU runs a 1-3-1 defense in attempts to slow down the game and force opposing teams into outside shots. MSU isn't very patient and is prone to taking bad shots from the outside, even when they have a clear advantage on the front line. I'm looking to play the under in the first half as it will be a more controlled
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CIT Championship Betting Pick: Santa Clara at Iona
03.30.2011 08:31 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Santa Clara at Iona
Recommendation: First half over 72
Tonight, the CIT Championship features Santa Clara traveling to Iona. Both teams have been over machines throughout the tournament but their results haven't been too far removed from what we saw in the regular season. Iona averaged nearly 70 possessions per game and was one of only two teams in the MAAC to average more than a point per possession (1.14). In fact, the finished 22nd nationally – one of the few mid-majors to rank in the top 25 in offensive efficiency. In Iona's three tournament games, the first half scores were 41-32, 41-36 and 41-35.
Santa Clara was a bit slower but still a team that looks to push the pace (102nd tempo rating). Looking at their postseason results, they were a little sluggish following the WCC Tournament, beating Northern Arizona 68-63 but games against San Francisco and Air Force were up and down. I'm ignoring their 72-55 result against SMU because the Mustangs were at home and one of the few teams in
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NIT Free Betting Pick: New Mexico at Alabama
03.21.2011 10:58 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
New Mexico at Alabama -6 O/U 129.5
Recommendation: Under
In 17 home games this season, Alabama allowed 60+ points only five times. Kentucky was the only team to top 65 points and it took them 61 field goal attempts and 22 free throws just to reach 66. The Crimson Tide rank among the top 10 nationally in a number of defensive categories including defensive efficiency (7th, 0.88 points per possession). With some of these secondary postseason tournaments, there is always concern about effort on the defensive end of the floor. Alabama, perhaps snubbed by the NCAA Tournament committee, showed great poise in their 68-44 opening round win over Coastal Carolina. Head coach Anthony Grant always gets the most out of his players and I expect there is team-wide push to reach New York and the NIT semifinals.
New Mexico is not the same team without leading scorer Dairese Gary. From watching their win over UTEP, the Lobos really slowed down the pace and were very cautious on offense. They clearly had no
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