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Saturday College Basketball Free Play: Tennessee Tech at Tennessee State

02.11.2012     08:20 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Tennessee Tech +3.5 at Tennessee State O/U 145.5
Recommendation: Tennessee Tech

No one in college basketball is immune to letdowns and that includes the likes of Kentucky, Ohio State and on down to the little guys. Tennessee State just picked up the program's biggest win since...I don't have the time to research it but it was huge when they beat undefeated Murray State on the road. I knew Murray State was going to lose at some point and in reality, TSU isn't that far removed from the Racers talent wise, but to go up there on national TV and score a victory was an impressive feat – how often are Tennessee State kids highlighted on ESPN? The Tigers have now won six straight including back-to-back on the road and have just one day to prepare for any angry Tennessee Tech squad that just lost at home to bottom feeder Eastern Illinois. Head coach Steve Payne said after the game it wasn't a lack of effort, but instead just a really bad shooting Read more

Tags: College Basketball Tennessee Tech Golden Eages Tennessee State Tigers Andrew Lange

College Basketball Free Pick: North Texas at Florida International

02.09.2012     06:39 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
North Texas +2 at Florida International O/U 133.5
Recommendation: North Texas

Let's not let facts get in the way here: Isaiah Thomas is not a good leader of men when not donning a uniform and sneakers. Since arriving at Florida International, Zeke checks in at a dismal 25-59 SU. I’ve got to the window in support of FIU as an underdog, but in all three instances of being favored this season, they lost outright. Adding to the randomness of this program, of their seven wins this season, all but one came on the highway. Off back-to-back wins including a 20-point victory on the road over rival Florida Atlantic – arguably the most impressive win of Isaiah's brief tenure – this is a team that has FADE written all over it. North Texas is playing as well as anyone in the Sun Belt right now on a current 6-3 SU, 8-0-1 ATS run. The Mean Green's three losses came by 2, 2 and 3. This has been a wacky series with the underdog covering 12 straight and the road team eight for its last 10 ATS.

Tags: College Basketball North Texas Mean Green Florida International Panthers Andrew Lange

NCAA Basketball Betting Preview: Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels

02.08.2012     06:19 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Duke at North Carolina -6 O/U 158

Quick breakdown of tonight's Duke-North Carolina matchup. Interesting to note that each of the last six meetings went under the total – none of which were lined above 157 and none of which finished with more than 152 points. So it seems rather logical that bettors took advantage of the super-high opening total that at one point last night was 160.5. 

Things that favor North Carolina: Defense. From Ken Pom to conference-only generic stats, the Tar Heels are the better defensive team. They rank second in the ACC in points per possession allowed (0.92) and first field goal defense (40.5%). Perhaps by design, ACC opponents score 34% of their points from three vs. UNC. You may lose a game or two if someone gets hot, but long term, that is a great philosophy to have. And strengthening that stat is that the Tar Heels allow just 43.8% from two-point range. All of those things that I just bragged about Read more

Tags: College Basketball North Carolina Tar Heels Duke Blue Devils Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: College of Charleston at Appalachian State

02.04.2012     06:25 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
College of Charleston at Appalachian State pk
Recommendation: Appalachian State

A lot has occurred with College of Charleston over the last few weeks – so much so that I think its season is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. After starting 9-1, the Cougars dropped four of their last seven, but that was just the start. In a marquee matchup at conference leader Davidson, C of C was blasted 87-69. They followed that up with a road loss to an average Georgia Southern squad and then mysteriously lost back-to-back home games to Furman and Wofford laying -8.5 and -5.5 respectively. Prior to the Wofford game, unknown to everyone outside of the program, head coach Bobby Cremins decided to step away for health reasons. The Cougars managed to rally the troops with a solid road win at bottom feeder Samford but it was Thursday's effort that may be too much to overcome. C of C trailed Elon on the road by 17 at half but rallied back to force double overtime only to lose 99-98. Five players saw 36+ minutes of action including Andrew Lawrence who played the entire 50 minutes. Now they must turn right around and face an Appalachian State squad that Read more

Tags: College Basketball College of Charleston Cougars Appalachian State Mountaineers Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Eastern Kentucky at Eastern Illinois

02.02.2012     09:41 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Eastern Kentucky at Eastern Illinois -2.5 O/U 127.5
Recommendation: Under

Not sure why this total is getting bet up as both Eastern Illinois and Eastern Kentucky prefer to play at a slow pace and aren't particularly sharp when it comes to shooting the basketball. In conference play, EIU is averaging an awful 0.91 points per possession. EKU is better though the Colonels average about 63 possessions per game. Both meetings last year were lined in the low 120's and went under. And perhaps one of the strongest trends – unknown to most bettors – is that Eastern Illinois has gone under the total in 49 of its last 62 league games. Also, there is absolutely no reason why EIU should be favored by as high as -3 in this contest. Play accordingly. 

Tags: College Basketball Eastern Illinois Panthers Eastern Kentucky Colonels Andrew Lange

Sunday College Basketball Free Play: Montana Grizzlies at Portland State Vikings

01.29.2012     07:35 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Montana at Portland State +4 O/U 143
Recommendation: Portland State

Montana gets somewhat of a break by having two days in between conference road games but I still feel this is going to be a difficult spot for the Grizzlies. The second game of back-to-back road tilts is particularly tough in the Big Sky because schools are spaced out and they don't have the luxury of top notch travel. There are some great examples of letdowns in these situations: Earlier this season, Montana won at Northern Arizona and two days later lost by 16 at Weber State. Weber State, the best team in the Big Sky, won by 15 at Sacramento State on Thursday but turned right around and lost at 6-14 Idaho State yesterday. Montana State upset Portland State on Thursday and guess what took place on Saturday? The Bobcats lost by 17 at Eastern Washington. With only the top six teams in the Big Sky making the conference tournament, this is a very important game for Portland State (4-4). The Read more

Tags: College Basketball Montana Grizzlies Portland State Vikings Andrew Lange

College Basketball Free Play: Ball State Cardinals at Ohio Bobcats

01.28.2012     06:53 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Ball State +9 at Ohio O/U 127.5
Recommendation: Ball State

I can't help but notice that when Ball State and Ohio hook up, the games tend to be pretty damn close. Last year, the two teams split with Ball State winning by three in overtime in the MAC Tournament and Ohio eking out of 61-60 victory in Muncie. In 2010, both meetings went to overtime. And the two years previous to that featured games decided by seven and two points. The Bobcats have four MAC wins this season and only one was by double-digits. The recently beat Miami and Western Michigan by four and five points respectively – two teams a notch below Ball State. The Cardinals come in off a disappointing second half meltdown at home against Akron. I expect a good effort here as a split on the road vs. Ohio and Buffalo is crucial for the league race. There is such a huge discrepancy between the weaker West and stronger East and it has certainly been reflected in the lines of these matchups. I think Read more

Tags: College Basketball Ball State Cardinals Ohio Bobcats Andrew Lange

College Basketball Free Play: Washington Huskies at Arizona State Sun Devils

01.26.2012     07:00 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Washington -7.5 at Arizona State O/U 137.5
Recommendation: Under

In seven PAC-12 games this season, Arizona State has topped 137 points once. It came against the fastest team in the league, Oregon State, who also happens to be incapable of stopping teams from scoring (57.4% effective FG% vs. PAC-12). In that game, there were 71 possessions and ASU shot 59% from the floor and 53% from three. If not for ASU's out-of-the-norm effort and a 45-point second half, that game probably lands in the low to mid 130s as oppose to 142. Outside of that game, ASU's games vs. the PAC-12 have averaged 58.6 possessions per game. Since losing to Colorado 87-69, Washington head coach Lorenzo Romar has been preaching better shot selection and defense and for the most part, it has worked as the Huskies have won three of their last four conference games, holding those four teams to 53, 65, 69 and 63 points. Injuries concerns for both squads with UW's CJ Wilcox and ASU's Read more

Tags: College Basketball Washington Huskies Arizona State Sun Devils Andrew Lange

College Basketball Free Play: Bradley Braves at Southern Illinois Salukis

01.24.2012     07:01 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Bradley +7 at Southern Illinois O/U 138
Recommendation: Bradley

Why on earth is Southern Illinois laying -7 in a conference game? I understand Bradley is not very good and the Salukis are coming off a 85-42 beat down at Wichita, but this number is in my opinion way too high. Situational aside, let's look at the facts: Both teams have faced similar league schedules and have nearly identical statistical profiles. They struggle to defend on a consistent basis and have no real edge in any facet of the game. SIU has managed to pick up a few more league wins and by default deserves to be favored, but I expected to see this game lined in the -3 range. SIU won the first meeting in Peoria but shot an uncharacteristically high 57% from the floor. Unless that type of effort occurs again, I think the road team can stick around and make this a game.

Tags: College Basketball Bradley Braves Southern Illinois Salukis Andrew Lange

College Hoops Free Pick: Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions

01.19.2012     07:24 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Illinois at Penn State +3.5 O/U 123.5
Recommendation: Penn State

It has been quite a turnaround for Illinois of late. Less than a month ago, this team had the look of a .500 team in Big Ten play. But three straight close wins, including a 79-74 victory over Ohio State has the Illini atop the league standings. The win over the Buckeyes was particularly intriguing because Illinois got 43 points from Brandon Paul and as a team shot 60% from the floor and 61% from three. Prior to that, Illinois was hard-pressed to shoot 45% in game. Regardless, off a monster win, and in first place...and with Wisconsin on deck, the Illini take a trip to face 9-10, 1-5 Penn State. The Nittany Lions are not a good basketball team, but they've shown me enough to think they could give Illinois some trouble. PSU beat Purdue on this floor by 20 and battled Indiana to a six-point loss. Note that Illinois may be 15-3 but winning by margin hasn't come easy. They beat Cornell by four, Read more

Tags: College Basketball Illinois Fighting Illini Penn State Nittany Lions Andrew Lange


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