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College Basketball Betting Recap: Bizarre Duke Loss, Plus Other Night Delights
02.17.2013 08:23 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
It’s not so much that Duke losing on the road to Maryland is bizarre. They almost lost on the road at Boston College last week…and BC is worse than Maryland. It was sure a bizarre boxscore though…
*We’ve seen a few games in recent weeks where a team posted a strong two-point shooting mark on offense, but committed a lot of turnovers. If they didn’t give the ball away…they scored. Or, the defense went for the steal…if it didn’t work…deuce. Saturday night Maryland shot not 50%, or 60%, or 65%....Maryland shot 72% on two-pointers…but turned the ball over TWENTY SIX times! That’s 72% on deuces, with 26 turnovers. EXTREME!
*Duke has had some problems on the boards in recent years when they’re playing top competition. Maryland isn’t really top competition. Just a bubble team. But, Maryland outrebounded Duke by a stunning 38-17.
*At home, Duke often gets the benefit of the doubt on free
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Tags:
College Basketball
Duke Blue Devils
Maryland Terrapins
Stat Intelligence
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College Basketball Gambling Free Play: Arizona State Sun Devils at Colorado Buffaloes
02.16.2013 12:05 PM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Arizona State
+7 at
Colorado
O/U 131
Recommendation: Arizona State
The Sun Devils were a legitimate ‘value’ team for most of the season. They were projected as the #11 team in a 12 team conference, and failed to impress early on, starting the year 1-2 ATS. But following that sluggish start, Herb Sendek’s team proceeded to go 10-3 ATS in their next 13 ballgames, playing themselves into contention for a postseason bid.
Arizona State has cooled off, losing three of their last four in SU fashion, including a particularly poorly played defeat at Utah on Thursday Night. The Sun Devils aren’t losing by margin, however – all three recent defeats have come by five points or less. They’ve won on the road in SU fashion at Texas Tech, Oregon State and Wassou, and have hung tough in tight road losses by five or less at Oregon, Washington and Utah. It’s not easy to beat Arizona State by margin
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Tags:
College Basketball
Arizona State Sun Devils
Colorado Buffaloes
Teddy Covers
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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Pittsburgh Panthers at Marquette Eagles
02.16.2013 07:39 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Pittsburgh
-2.5 at
Marquette
O/U 123.5
Recommendation: Under
Numerous factors point us towards the under with this afternoon's Pittsburgh-Marquette matchup. The first meet was a knock-down-drag-out affair that produced only 65 possessions despite going to overtime. And the 74-67 score is very deceiving with the game tied 57-57 at the end of regulation. Pace wise we're dealing with two of the slower teams in the Big East with both averaging around 62 possessions per game. There have also been multiple reports that both squads will play zone defense at times this afternoon. For Pitt it is a smart move considering Marquette ranks No. 1 in the Big East is 2-point FG% at 51.5% and 14th at shooting threes (27.2%). Pitt has a similar blueprint with a vast majority of its points coming from inside 20 feet. Note that last year's meeting produced 119 points and 59 possessions and that was with Marquette playing up-tempo and averaging around 70 possessions per game.
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Pittsburgh Panthers
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Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Handicapping: Red Hot Georgetown First to 9 Wins in Big East Play
02.16.2013 06:34 AM
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Stat Intelligence
Because of their head start on the weekend, the Georgetown Hoyas find themselves alone in first place of the Big East after Friday’s 62-55 win at Cincinnati.
Georgetown is 9-3 in league action, temporarily ahead of Syracuse and Marquette at 8-3. Louisville, Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh are tied for fourth with 8-4 records.
It may be time to consider Georgetown more seriously for a #3 seed or better in the Big Dance. We’ve spent a lot of time recently documenting big name teams who aren’t exactly on fire. Georgetown, sitting with a #4 spot in Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology assessment, is one of the few teams that’s on a big roll.
*Georgetown is 9-1 straight up its last 10 games.
*Georgetown is also 9-1 against market expectations their last 10 games, including their 11-point cover tonight as a 4-point underdog. There aren't too many teams on 90% cover runs at the moment!
*Georgetown has recent win/covers over Notre Dame,
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Georgetown Hoyas
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Stat Intelligence
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Sports Betting Podcast 2-15-2013 with Handicapper Rob Veno
02.15.2013 09:55 AM
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Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Rob Veno. Rob talked this weekend's marquee college hoops matchups.
Today's segments
Rob Veno - Saturday College Basketball
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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Rob Veno
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College Basketball Handicapping: With Noel out for UK, Tennessee's Stokes could thrive
02.15.2013 08:11 AM
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Something to consider when Kentucky travels to Tennessee on Saturday. Obviously the Wildcats will be without the services of Nerlens Noel. In the first meeting, Noel played 38 minutes, scored 12 points, grabbed nine boards and blocked six shots as the Cats pulled out a 75-65 win in Lexington. Also noteworthy in that game was the performance of UT's Jarnell Stokes who played only 15 minutes and fouled out. The Vols have won four of their last six games in large part because Stokes has significantly stepped up his game. In those six games he averaged 17.5 ppg, 11.7 rpg and 2 bpg – and more importantly stayed out of foul trouble. Kentucky expects to replace Noah with 7-foot freshman Willie Cauley-Stein who has actually played fairly well of late with three straight double-digit efforts.
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College Basketball Betting Trends: PAC-12 home courts have been money burners
02.14.2013 02:32 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
On today's
Podcast
I discussed the lack of strong home courts in the PAC-12 this season. From a straight up perspective, home teams are only 40-29, 58% SU in league play which is 23rd out of 33 conferences according to Ken Pom. Where they really falter though is against the spread at 29-39-1 ATS. Arizona and Oregon are the main culprits (both 1-5 ATS) but not one team is more than a game over .500 ATS in league play. Stanford, California, and Colorado are your PAC-12 home teams this evening.
PAC-12 SU/ATS Home Records in League Play
Arizona: 4-2 SU, 1-5 ATS
Arizona State: 5-2 SU, 3-3 ATS
California: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
Colorado: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
Oregon: 5-1 SU, 1-5 ATS
Oregon State: 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS
Stanford: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS
UCLA: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS
USC: 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS
Utah: 2-4 SU, 4-3 ATS
Washington: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS
Washington State: 1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS
Overall: 40-29 SU
Against the Spread: 29-39-1 ATS
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Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Update: Missing from the Math in Kenpom's Foul or Defend Study
02.14.2013 06:52 AM
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UPDATE
Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
Those of you who are statheads may have already spent the day discussing Ken Pomeroy’s college basketball tabulations on what happens when a defense does or doesn’t foul when leading by three late in the game. I think a fairly important factor has been left out of the discussions I’ve read and heard (maybe it’s come up often in ones I haven’t).
First, the nuts and bolts. Pomeroy wanted to compare late game success rates from recent years that would shed light on the “foul or defend” debate. Some people are always screaming at coaches to foul when up three in the final seconds. Most coaches are ignoring this and continuing to defend, figuring the worst that can happen is that the other team hits a trey and the game goes to overtime.
Kenpom’s Parameters
In games from 2009-10 to
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College Basketball Gambling: Louisville looks to bounce back vs. St. John's
02.14.2013 06:38 AM
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St. Johns
at
Louisville
-17 O/U 132.5
Last night, Notre Dame had a difficult time disposing of Big East bottom feeder DePaul, eventually winning in overtime, 82-78. Heading into that game there were obvious questions about whether or not the Irish would have enough in the tank physically and emotionally after the five overtime affair against Louisville. Tonight it is the
Cardinals' turn
as they play host to St. John's.
“In three of our five losses, we have beat ourselves, and for a veteran team that’s very disturbing,” Pitino said on Wednesday. “I think we’re playing with great heart, with very little head. You’ve got to play smart as well as playing hard to be a successful team, and they know that.”
“Russ has got to learn
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College Basketball Handicapping: Can Northeastern sustain its success?
02.13.2013 03:10 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
After limping into conference play having lost six of seven, Northeastern has put together one of the surprise seasons in the Colonial Conference. The Huskies just got finished winning three straight barn burners on the road to move to 12-1 – three games ahead of tonight's opponent Delaware. I tried to step in front of Northeastern in its last game at William & Mary – one of the better situational plays I've come across over the last few weeks. Things were going according to plan as W&M (+2.5) was up seven points with five minutes to go. But Northeastern rallied back, tied the game, took the lead, and won by four points, holding the home team to a single bucket the final five minutes of game. It was a frustrating loss and yet another "clutch" performance by Northeastern.
According to Ken Pomeroy, there are seven teams in the Colonial that are ranked anywhere from 133rd to 195th. Meaning, in theory, there isn't much difference between Drexel at 6-6 and Northeastern at 12-1. Case in point, in the two meetings this year, the Huskies won in overtime on the road and by seven at home over the Dragons. It was two of a litany of competitive games
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Delaware Blue Hens
Andrew Lange
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Page 19 of 117
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