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College Basketball Gambling: Duke a double-digit favorite over North Carolina
02.13.2013 07:06 AM
Printer Friendly
North Carolina
at
Duke
-10.5 O/U 152
Duke and North Carolina hook up for the first time this season in Durham. It's been a balanced series of late with the Blue Devils holding a slight edge both SU (6-5) and ATS (6-5). Home court hasn't meant much with the road side winning six of 10 outright (one game was on a neutral floor in the ACC Tournament). Seven of the last 11 meetings have gone UNDER the total.
Duke-North Carolina Betting History 2008-12
Year
Venue
Score
SU
ATS
Total
2012
Durham
UNC 88, DUKE 70
UNC
UNC -2
Over 155
2012
Chapel Hill
DUKE 84, UNC 84
Duke
Duke +6
Over 155
2011
Neutral
DUKE 75, UNC 58
Duke
Duke -4.5
Under 147
2011
Chapel Hill
UNC 81, DUKE 67
UNC
UNC -1.5
Under 150.5
2011
Durham
DUKE 79, UNC 73
Duke
UNC +10.5
Under 156.5
2010
Durham
DUKE 82, UNC 50
Duke
Duke -15
Under 145.5
2010
Chapel Hill
DUKE 64, UNC 54
Duke
Duke -5.5
Under 155.5
2009
Chapel Hill
UNC 79, DUKE 71
UNC
Duke +8.5
Under 165.5
2009
Durham
UNC 101, DUKE 87
UNC
UNC -2
Over 154.5
2008
Durham
UNC 76, DUKE 68
UNC
UNC +1.5
Under 169.5
2008
Chapel Hill
DUKE 89, UNC 78
Duke
Duke +4.5
Over 164
Tags:
College Basketball
Duke Blue Devils
North Carolina Tar Heels
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College Basketball Handicapping: Can Notre Dame get up for DePaul?
02.13.2013 06:00 AM
Printer Friendly
Depaul
at
Notre Dame
-11.5
Bus trips, fatigue, hangovers, letdowns...they are all tricky aspects of a lot of handicaps this time of year. For every one that plays out as expected – Team A off a big win over rival but falls flat next time out as road chalk – there is another that doesn't – Team B off three road games in five nights, the last of which in two overtimes, rolls to an easy win and cover. For tonight, a lot of folks are going to question whether or not Notre Dame can
bounce back
from Saturday's five overtime circus win over Louisville. DePaul isn't a very good team (1-9 vs. Big East) but the Blue Demons have at times been competitive (three Big East losses by 1/OT). The Irish meanwhile don't have a big track record of winning by margin against conference foes. Way back on January
Read more
Tags:
College Basketball
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
DePaul Blue Demons
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College Basketball Gambling Free Play: Indiana State Sycamores at Missouri State Bears
02.12.2013 11:07 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Indiana State
-4.5 at
Missouri State
Recommendation: Indiana State
When these two teams met in Terre Haute last month, Indiana State’s defense positively stifled Missouri State’s limited offense after halftime, outscoring the Bears by a dozen in the second half of a comfortable eight point win. There’s no reason to expect anything significantly different tonight.
The Bears can’t find the bottom of the basket. They shot just 16-51 from the floor in a 29 point loss at Wichita State over the weekend after being held to 37 points at Northern Iowa in their previous game, another double digit defeat thanks to their 15-55 shooting effort.
Don’t expect home cookin’ to change Missouri State’s offensive acumen in any dramatic way – they’ve shot under 40% at home for the entire season. Leading scorer and assist man Anthony Downing hits less than 40% of
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Indiana State Sycamores
Missouri State Bears
Teddy Covers
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College Basketball Gambling: Long trips and a short turnaround for Valpo
02.12.2013 07:56 AM
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Valparaiso
at
Wright State
pk
Big matchup in the Horizon League tonight as Valparaiso (9-2) heads to Wright State (8-4). Valpo didn't get home from its trip to Cleveland State until
late Saturday night
and left via bus for Dayton on Monday morning.
“We got guys with some injuries that were on the bus for 10 hours two days ago and then almost four and a half hours today,” Drew said. “That’s almost 15 hours. I think travel catches up with you at some point. When that point is, you never know."
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College Basketball
Valparaiso Crusaders
Wright State Raiders
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College Basketball Betting Trends: Kentucky is 7-2 ATS as an underdog under Calipari
02.12.2013 07:19 AM
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Kentucky
at
Florida
-10 O/U 133.5
Kentucky finds itself a double-digit underdog for tonight's game at Florida – the most points the Wildcats have ever been catching while under John Calipari's watch. Calipari is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS as an underdog dating back to the 2009-10 season.
Kentucky as an underdog under John Calipari
Year
Opponent
Score
Kentucky SU
Kentucky ATS
2013
at Ole Miss
87-74
Win
Win +2.5
2013
at Louisville
77-80
Loss
Win +7
2013
at Notre Dame
50-64
Loss
Loss +1.5
2013
vs. Duke
68-75
Loss
Loss +4.5
2011
vs. Ohio State
62-60
Win
Win +5.5
2011
vs. Florida
70-54
Win
Win +1.5
2011
at Louisville
78-63
Win
Win +3
2011
vs. Washington
74-67
Win
Win +3.5
2010
vs. UConn
64-61
Win
Win +1
Results
6-3 SU
7-2 ATS
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Kentucky Wildcats
Florida Gators
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College Basketball Handicapping: Is it smart to foul up three?
02.12.2013 07:06 AM
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As a basketball bettor, rarely a week goes by where the issue of whether or not to foul up three comes into question. We've all been there – and certainly remember the times when the team that you wagered on did the opposite of what was needed to cover.
Ken Pomeroy
ran his numbers and ultimately felt that fouling up three was the WRONG decision.
The fact is, chances of losing are close to remote in either case, but execution errors, an inflated offensive rebounding percentage, poor three-point shooting, and the chance of an extra possession are enough to counteract what might otherwise be the advantage of forcing a team to shoot free throws. In cases where the opponent has multiple good three-point shooters and you have confidence in rebounding a missed free throw, fouling may be the better option. But it appears the default decision should be to not foul.
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College Basketball Betting Update: Minnesota's wheels come off again
02.11.2013 02:35 PM
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UPDATE
A little over two weeks ago the Minnesota Golden Gophers they were in the midst of a three-game losing streak with rumblings that the program was in disarray. The following game they had a decent effort at Wisconsin (lost by one, covered +3.5) and then manhandled Nebraska at home by 19. Up next, Minny barely slipped past Iowa, 62-59, as 10-point home favorites – a win that was a bit troubling considering the Golden Gophers shot better from the field, attempted and made more free throws, were +6 on the glass, and somehow didn't sniff a pointspread cover. Three days later in East Lansing, Minnesota had a 20-18 halftime lead but lost by 11 catching +3.5. But out of all of those performances, it was Sunday's showing vs. Illinois that was the worst. In an absolutely prime spot – off a loss, at home, facing a mediocre Illini squad that just beat the No. 1 team in the country in miracle fashion – Minnesota was simply awful. This is an offense that through its first five Big Ten games averaged 79 ppg and against the 11th-ranked
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Minnesota Golden Gophers
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: College Basketball's worst against the spread
02.11.2013 07:40 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Last week, I took a look at the
best pointspread teams
in all of college basketball, with the goal of assessing which teams were most likely to continue their ATS success down the stretch. This week, I’m taking the opposite approach; examining the very worst pointspread teams in college basketball. Why are they so bad against the spread? Will they continue to be overvalued as February rolls into March? Let’s find out!
The single worst pointspread team in all of college basketball this year has been IUPUI (Indiana-Purdue, Indianapolis); the type of team that only wiseguys bet on or against on a regular basis. At 5-17 ATS, no team in all of college basketball has suffered more pointspread defeats than the Jaguars this year. The Jaguars play in the Summit League, on the added board in college hoops – exclusive territory for sharps.
IUPUI has virtually no homecourt edge, covering just a single pointspread at home all year. They’ve been besieged with injuries and attrition;
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Teddy Covers
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College Basketball Betting: Kansas' offense has been horrific
02.11.2013 07:17 AM
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Kansas State
at
Kansas
-8 O/U 131.5
Pretty amazing that West Virginia of all teams is averaging more points per possession (100.4) than Kansas (100.1) in Big XII play. The difference in miniscule but we're talking about a team that was 9-11, 2-5 in Big XII play heading into February vs. a team that at one point was undefeated in league play and ranked among the top 5 teams in the nation. During Kansas'
three-game losing streak
they shot 16-of-41 from 2 against Oklahoma State, tried its best to duplicate that in the loss to TCU (15-of-39), and went 5-of-15 from 3 and 11-of-20 from the free throw line in Saturday's loss at Oklahoma.
“I don’t know where we are,” Self said, “but it seems like to me, we’re missing a lot of shots that other teams aren’t missing.”
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Kansas Jayhawks
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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Northern Iowa Panthers at Bradley Braves
02.10.2013 07:53 AM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
Northern Iowa
-3 at
Bradley
Recommendation: Northern Iowa
This looks to be a solid spot where fundamental and situational angles favor visiting UNI. The Panthers have recently taken their methodical offense and vice grip defense philosophies to new heights which figure to frustrate inconsistent Bradley. Over their last six games, Northern Iowa has limited MVC opponents to 50.3 ppg and they’ve totally suffocated foes from beyond the arc allowing an average of 26% (26-100) and no better than 33% during the span. Bradley’s emphasis on three-point shooting (five players with 56 attempts or more) and quicker tempo (70 possessions per game in league play) is simply not a good fit against the Panthers. Another factor in UNI’s favor is the fact that they’re overdue to snap out of their three-game shooting funk. UNI boasts a solid 52.5 effective FG% for the season but in their last three games they’ve produced three of their four lowest
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Northern Iowa Panthers
Bradley Braves
Rob Veno
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