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College Basketbal Betting Free Play: Northern Colorado Bears at Weber State Wildcats
01.03.2013 08:16 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Northern Colorado
at
Weber State
-13
Recommendation: Weber State
Northern Colorado has played a brutal schedule; one a lot of Big Sky teams would struggle with. But unfortunately for the Bears, traveling to Weber State tonight isn't much of a step down in class. I've been chomping at the bit to step in and support UNC but they've been on the road for nearly the entire non-conference and aren't good enough to compete with strong teams on the highway. The storyline for Northern Colorado is really a simple one. Yes, they were extremely young last year but they led the country in three-point shooting at a staggering 45.1% and seventh in effective FG% at 55.1% and despite all that, they won nine games and were 5-11 in Big Sky play. This year, they are shooting only 30.5% from three and as a result have beaten only one DI team. Now they aren't going to shoot 30% all season but they just so happen to be facing one of the best three-point shooting
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Tags:
College Basketball
Northern Colorado Bears
Weber State Wildcats
Andrew Lange
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College Basketbal Betting Free Play: Furman Paladins at SMU Mustangs
12.30.2012 09:31 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Furman
at
SMU
-14
Recommendation: SMU
Furman is a bottom of the barrel squad with just one win over DI competition – 81-57 at home vs. Presbyterian (339th). In their eight other games, the Paladins lost by margins of 17, 14, 14, 24, 12, 21, 27, 27. The 12-point margin you see was against Jacksonville who like Presbyterian, is south of 300 according Ken Pom's ranking. So in this spot, essentially Furman is being asked to go on the road and be at least somewhat competitive against a somewhat decent squad. The Mustangs beat Loyola Marymount by 15 and Rider by 13 – two quality teams. And their last two games against sub-part competition they beat Hosftra by 26 and Alcorn State by 15 – both games away from home. At home off the holiday break, SMU gets a weak opponent it can easily handle. Lay the points.
Tags:
College Basketball
Furman Paladins
SMU Mustangs
Andrew Lange
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NCAAB Betting Notes: Travel, lack of fan support concerns for New Mexico and Cincinnati
12.27.2012 02:11 PM
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New Mexico
at
Cincinnati
-6 O/U 137
Couple of
handicapping factors
to keep in mind for tonight's New Mexico-Cincinnati game. Because of yesterday's snowstorm that ripped through the Midwest, the Lobos flew from Albuquerque to Denver to Chicago to Louisville and then a 100-mile bus ride to Cincinnati. Cincinnati meanwhile may not have much home support if any. Despite a 12-0 record and top 10 ranking, the Bearcats have averaged only 6,800 fans and the football team is playing later this afternoon in the Belk Bowl in Charlotte, NC.
“Everyone would like to be 13-0, but last I checked there’s only five or six in the country that get to Christmas where they haven’t lost a game,” Alford said. “For us to be at 12-1, I think we’re way ahead of schedule. Had I looked at this schedule early in the year, I
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College Basketbal Betting Free Play: Duquesne Dukes at UL-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns
12.22.2012 07:09 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Duquesne
at -UL
Lafayette
-3
Recommendation: Louisiana-Lafayette
I think this is a difficult spot for Duquesne as they make an isolated road trip to UL-Lafayette before the holiday break. The Dukes are a talented but young squad that relies heavily of three-point shooting. With the exception of a 34.6% effort from three at Appalachian State (2-8), the Dukes have shot 27%, 25%, 24%, 18% and 17% from deep away from home. And of those five games, four featured 41% FG shooting or less. Also a concern should be their performance from that charity stripe with a season average of 62%. Lafayette is also very young but has had a few performances that suggest they are capable. Earlier in the year they lost by six at Boise State and lost by three at Michigan State. Last time out, they had a five-point lead in the second half against a quality Robert Morris squad but ended up falling short 66-61. Note that Robert Morris beat Duquesne by 22 two weeks ago. The Cajun Dome is
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Duquesne Dukes
UL-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns
Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Gambling Free Play: Pepperdine Waves at Tulane Green Wave
12.20.2012 12:39 PM
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Pepperdine
+8 at
Tulane
Recommendation: Pepperdine
Despite knowing that this is the championship game of Tulane’s own holiday tournament and that the Green Wave is off to an 8-3 start this season, I have a hard time finding the eight points worth of separation given to them in this contest. Tulane’s non-conference schedule ranks 345th according to Ken Pom. Their slate is littered with teams that own RPI’s of 200 or worse – Georgia Tech and Nebraska are their only opponents possessing an RPI better than 214. Pepperdine’s schedule has not been much better, but it is better. The Waves have faced a pair of PAC-12 opponents (Cal and Washington State) along with early season surprise Cal State-Northridge and a much improved Central Michigan team (5-4 SU, 5-3 ATS vs. a tough schedule).
Fundamentally these teams are very similar statistically on defense but Pepperdine holds more than just a slight edge in almost every offensive
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Pepperdine Waves
Tulane Green Wave
Rob Veno
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College Basketball Betting Free Play: UC Davis Aggies vs. Southern Illinois Salukis
12.20.2012 12:30 PM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
UC Davis
vs.
Southern Illinois
-6
Recommendation: Southern Illinois
UC Davis is a bottom-feeder team coming off a 5-26 season. They’re 2-6 so far this year, as head coach Jim Les was forced to bring in nine new players to his roster in an effort to rebuild. But the Aggies have earned some betting market respect with some tighter-than expected losses.
Those losses, at Oklahoma State, Idaho and Nevada and a couple of high scoring wins against Eastern Washington and Sacramento State, have the markets somewhat bullish on the Aggies. But when Cal Davis has faced a strong defensive foe, their offense has bogged down, and they are light years away from being a good team on the defensive end of the court, allowing more than 75 points per game this season.
Southern Illinois allows only 59 points per game on 42% shooting. But the key stat is their 0.56 assist-to-turnover ratio allowed, forcing more than 17
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Teddy Covers
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College Basketball Gambling: Oddsmakers screw up Tulane-Pepperdine line
12.20.2012 07:49 AM
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Pepperdine
at
Tulane
-7.5
Check out the odd line move situation that has taken place for tonight's Pepperdine-Tulane game. Both teams played last night as a part of the Tulane Classic. BetOnline, which is typically the first to post lines during the afternoon opened with Tulane as an 8-point favorite – which on initial glance appeared to be in the ballpark. But CRIS opened the game a pick 'em and proceeded to be peppered with a flood of Tulane money. The line jumped to -3.5 where it stood until this morning. BetOnline, which copies CRIS's lines, went from Tulane -6 to -1.5 where again it stood until this morning. CRIS meanwhile spotted what was seemingly was an error and reposted the game Tulane -7.5 about an hour ago. We'd be curious to know if CRIS canceled those overnight bets due to the miscue.
Line histories courtesy of CRIS and BetOnline.
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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Oregon Ducks at UTEP Miners
12.19.2012 11:39 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Oregon
-4.5 at
UTEP
O/U 129
Recommendation: Oregon
Dana Altman has been a master at guiding his teams to wins in close games dating all the way back to his first head coaching job at Kansas State in back in the 90's. It was a similar story during his decade and a half coaching at Creighton.
Altman took a seven win Bluejays team upon arrival and turned them into an NCAA tourney team from a 1 or 2 bid conference for five consecutive years within four years of taking the job. He's building a similar program at Oregon; a squad that won seven PAC-12 games in his first year on the job, then went 13-5 in conference last year. Oregon is, quite simply a well-coached team that is quite likely to make us money this year, just like they did last year when they were a 'Top 25' team in terms of profitability!
The Ducks are balanced, with six players averaging between nine and eleven points per game, able to withstand a poor performance from just about anyone on
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UTEP Miners
Teddy Covers
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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Oakland Grizzlies at West Virginia Mountaineers
12.19.2012 11:34 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Oakland
at
West Virginia
-11.5 O/U 146.5
Recommendation: West Virginia
Reading the quotes from Bobby Huggins, practice probably wasn't easy for the Mountaineers this week. Various players are in the dog house while others were called out for not putting in extra work. This team has plenty of issues but the biggest one is not being able to put the ball in the bucket. Their effective FG% ranks 318th nationally while they are hitting less than 27% of their threes. Now this isn't the type of team that is going to shoot 50% from the floor on a consistent basis but there will be nights when the shots do fall. Entire the Oakland Grizzlies who don’t play a lick of defense. They sport the second worst 2-point FG% defense in the country at 61.1%. That means WVU should have plenty of easy looks and not be forced to rely on outside shots. The Grizzlies have also had a difficult time stepping up in class on the road. With the exception of the 10-point overtime
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West Virginia Mountaineers
Oakland Grizzlies
Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Handicapping: Will Louisville take it easy against FIU?
12.19.2012 08:30 AM
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Florida International at Louisville -25
Father and son meet up tonight with Rick Pitno's Louisville Cardinals taking on Richard's Florida International Panthers. It is expect to be a
lop-sided affair
and bettors are curious whether or not Louisville will call of the dogs late if up big. The betting markets seem to think so as the game was bet down from -29 to -25.
“But once it’s thrown up, it won’t be father and son anymore. He’s been taught that way. You go for the kill, and he will.”
“She said, ‘But this is your son! This is your son!’ I said, ‘It’s FIU, Joanne! It’s FIU!’ " Pitino said. “She said, ‘No, it’s not FIU. You just stay in that office if he’s embarrassed slightly. Don’t bother coming home.’”
“She’s very much torn, and she’s telling me, ‘You can’t embarrass your son, whatever you do,’ ” said Rick
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Louisville Cardinals
Florida International Panthers
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