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College Basketball Handicapping: Key injury update
12.19.2012 07:12 AM
Printer Friendly
A nice
laundry list
of college basketball's key injuries. One of the most significant was Wichita State losing Carl Hall (thumb) for at least a month. If you've ever watched the Shockers, Hall is without question their most important player.
Tags:
College Basketball
Wichita Shockers
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College Basketball Betting: Alabama tries to snap three-game losing skid
12.19.2012 07:05 AM
Printer Friendly
Alabama
-9 at
Texas Tech
Alabama has had a rough December with three straight losses. They fell on the road to Cincinnati on a last season shot, came up with a lame effort at home against Dayton, and last time out didn't have a chance against VCU's pressure defense. Tonight, they take a considerable step down in class but are still being asked to win by double-digits on the road. Head coach Anthony Grant wasn't shy about saying his team
needs to get better
in all facets of the game.
“We’ve got to get better as a basketball team. I say this to the guys a lot: Basketball is a game of habits. When we won six in a row, there some things that winning brings in terms of a confidence level. But there are also some things that get put under the shadows a little bit that you need to get better at … or it’s going
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Tags:
College Basketball
Alabama Crimson Tide
Texas Tech Red Raiders
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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Stanford Cardinal at NC State Wolfpack
12.18.2012 11:29 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Stanford
at
NC State
-7.5 O/U 142
Recommendation: NC State
I think Stanford is in for a difficult time tonight at NC State. The Cardinal will be playing their first road game of the season clear across the country against a quality foe eager for a marquee win. I typically don't make much of revenge angles but it is important to note that last year NC State traveled to Palo Alto had a comfortable lead and then allowed Stanford to close the game on a 17-1 run – much of that run occurred without CJ Leslie who was sitting due to cramps. Offensively, Stanford has really struggled to shoot the basketball despite not having played a true road game. In losses to Belmont, Minnesota and Missouri, the Cardinal shot only 42% from the floor and an even more alarming 14-of-64, 21.8% from three. Stanford also wasn't a great road team last year. Their six PAC-12 losses were by margins of 11, 13, 13, 10, 11 and 1 (at Utah). But while a lot lines up for NC State,
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Tags:
College Basketball
Stanford Cardinal
NC State Wolfpack
Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Betting: Charleston back at full strength vs. Old Dominion
12.18.2012 10:53 AM
Printer Friendly
Old Dominion at College of Charleston -8
College of Charleston expects to have
two starters back
for tonight's game against Old Dominion. Senior point guard Andrew Lawrence (12.4 ppg) and junior forward Trent Wiedeman (11.7 ppg) have both been upgraded to probable.
“Andrew will be back and we are hoping Trent will be back as well. They both mean so much to us. We have played a lot longer without Trent, but to have that other ball handler (Lawrence) is really important to our offense and our spacing.”
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College of Charleston Cougars
Old Dominion Monarchs
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College Basketball Handicapping: Can Richmond handle Kansas' size?
12.18.2012 08:27 AM
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Richmond
at
Kansas
-14 O/U 133
Interesting matchup tonight with Kansas playing host to Richmond. The Spiders are one of the smaller teams in the country with only Derrick Williams (6-6) and Alonzo Nelson-Odada (6-9) seeing significant playing time along the front line. That could pose a problem against the Jayhawks who feature a handful of 6-8 players as well as 7-footer Jeff Withey. Against Ohio, Richmond was outrebounded 36-26 and allowed 14 offensive rebounds. Against Minnesota, more of the same as the Spiders were outdone on the glass, 37-20.
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College Basketbal Betting Free Play: UL-Monroe Warhawks at Florida State Seminoles
12.17.2012 12:53 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
UL-Monroe at Florida State -25
Recommendation: Florida State
UL-Monroe is arguably the worst team in college basketball. Already this season we've seen them lose to Oklahoma by 34, Arkansas-Little Rock by 25 and last time out, at home, by 29 to Southern. Last year's ULM team won three games and they were forced to reload with JC players. They've purposely scheduled fewer games so the kids can hit the books harder in order to boost the team's APR. The bottom line is if and when ULM covers, it will come as a result of other teams clearing their bench and calling off the dogs not because they came through the backdoor with a flurry of points late. Florida State is going through a transition and head coach Leonard Hamilton's main concern is getting his kids to buy into his style of play. There have been pitfalls including home losses to South Alabama and Mercer but when focused, the Seminoles have shown they still have the ability to outclass teams at home (see: 95-68 vs. Buffalo; 91-59 vs. Maine). With finals out of the way and nothing significant looming on deck until the weekend, I expect the Seminoles to be focused for this contest.
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Florida State Seminoles
Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Handicapping: How important is the first meeting to a rematch?
12.17.2012 07:39 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Interesting theory in play tonight with Louisiana Tech and Arkansas-Little Rock hooking up for a second time this season. In the first meeting, Tech rolled to a 70-52 home win. For tonight's rematch, they are currently priced as 2-point road chalk. I unearthed my College Basketball Prospectus from a few years back and remember an article written by Ken Pomeroy on second meets. The records are a little dated but over a five-year span, Pomeroy found that teams that won the first meeting at home by 20-29 points were a relatively modest 283-202 (.583) in the road rematch. Teams that won by 10-19 points (like Louisiana Tech) were 781-759 (.507). Now if it is the road team doing to initial butt-kicking, they win the rematch around 80 percent of the time at home.
The point here is that while Louisiana Tech may be the better overall team, the end result from the first meeting shouldn’t have much of an impact if any into your handicap. Perhaps more important: Will Little Rock turn the ball over 19 times like it did in Ruston? How concerned should I be over Tech's recent road losses to Northwestern State and McNeese? Is Little Rock's 7-0 record at home for real? Bottom line
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Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Kansas State Wildcats vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
12.15.2012 08:46 AM
Alatex Sports
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Kansas State
vs.
Gonzaga
-9 O/U 137
Recommendation: Gonzaga
Gonzaga comes off its first loss of the season, dropping an 85-74 decision at home to Illinois last Saturday. The Bulldogs ran into Illinois at its best as the Illini hit 11-of-26 three pointers in route to the upset win. I still have Gonzaga ranked in my top ten, however, and they will bounce back today against a Kansas State team that is not as dangerous as the Illini.
Illinois actually averages 11 made threes per game, and the three-point shot is the ultimate weapon for underdogs in college basketball. Kansas State only makes 5.6 per game and hits just 31.2% from behind the arc. They will have trouble getting their points inside as well against the tall Gonzaga front line. KSU plays a three-guard lineup with 6-5 Nino Williams and 6-7 Thomas Gipson up front. Gonzaga counters with a front court that goes 6-8, 6-8, 7-0, and should control the paint in this one.
While this is not a
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Kansas State Wildcats
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Brent Crow
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College Basketball Handicapping: Tennessee looks to snap offensive cold streak
12.13.2012 08:27 AM
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Wichita State
at
Tennessee
-1.5
You can play all the defense in the world but at some point you have to be able to put the ball in the bucket and for Tennessee that has been a
huge challenge
of late. The Vols return home after scoring 36 and 38 points respectively against Georgetown and Virginia. They also netted only 45 points in a loss to Oklahoma State earlier this season. Wichita meanwhile is 9-0 with wins over VCU, DePaul and Iowa.
“We’ve got to get out in transition and run more,” guard Trae Golden said Tuesday. “We’re thinking too much. It will click for us.”
“They’re going to try and make it a tough night offensively for the opposing team,” WSU guard Demetric Williams said. “They work hard and they’re physical.”
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Wichita State Shockers
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College Basketball Betting Free Play: UW-Milwaukee Panthers at Fairfield Staggs
12.12.2012 08:37 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Wisc-Milwaukee
at
Fairfield
-11.5
Recommendation: Fairfield
My strike price for this being a full play was -10 and unfortunately, the betting markets are well aware of UW-Milwaukee's shortcoming of late. I still think the right side for tonight's contest at Fairfield is the chalk – even with some of the value gone – and will personally play the Staggs in some capacity. Over the last three games, Milwaukee has been simply awful and after watching them lose to Buffalo by 20 and needing overtime to dispose of woeful Northern Illinois, I stepped in and faded the Panthers in what ended up being a 34-point loss to DePaul. Head coach Rob Jeter is at a loss for words when trying to describe his squad’s play. I am too. Even with a more spirited effort tonight, the Panthers just don't have the personnel to compete on the road against a quality opponent. Fairfield isn't the ideal team to be laying double-digits but I like the quotes I read
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Andrew Lange
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