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College Basketball Betting: Florida continues to dominate the SEC
02.04.2013 08:28 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Florida is off to an 8-0 start in SEC play and finally failed to cover a pointspread in Saturday's 78-64 win over Ole Miss (+18). Make no mistake, the Gators were in complete control of that game and allowed the Rebels to slip through the backdoor with less than two minutes to go. Statistically, what Florida is doing right now is sick with an average scoring margin of +26.5 vs. conference foes. They are allowing 0.77 points per possession which means in a normal 65 possession game, UF's opponents average about 50 points.
When the Gators won the National Championship in 2006-07, they started conference play 11-0 and had wins by 16, 34, 25, and 16. They eventually cooled off and finished the regular season 4-3 SU and 1-7 ATS. That was a really good team but statistically, this year’s version is at this point far superior. Ken Pom points out that what Florida is doing this season is (somehow)
not unprecedented
. Pomeroy feels that the Gators will lose at least one and maybe even two league games. They play at Missouri in two weeks and close out the regular season in
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College Basketball
Florida Gators
Andrew Lange
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College Basketbal Betting Free Pick: Idaho State at North Dakota
02.02.2013 09:14 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Idaho State
at
North Dakota
-7
Recommendation: North Dakota
Since 2009, when asked to play back-to-back road games in Big Sky play with only one day of rest, Idaho State is 0-10 SU and 3-7 ATS. Seven of those 10 losses came by more than seven points, tonight’s line against North Dakota. This shouldn’t come as a shock seeing as the Bengals have been Big Sky bottom feeders for quite some time and travel within the league can be brutal. Here they go from Greeley, Colorado (lost to Northern Colorado by 15 on Thursday) to Grand Forks, North Dakota – I can’t confirm but I seriously doubt they chartered a flight but instead like most mid-major schools, took commercial flights sprinkled in with a few hours on a bus. North Dakota isn’t a great team but we’ve seen signs its home court is going to be tough on opposing teams. In mid-January, the (they no longer have a team nickname for PC reasons) rolled off three straight home
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Idaho State Bengals
North Dakota
Andrew Lange
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College Basketbal Betting Free Pick: Gonzaga Bulldogs at Loyola Marymount Lions
01.31.2013 07:26 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Gonzaga
at
Loyola Marymount
+16 O/U 142
Recommendation: Loyola Marymount
As bad as Loyola Marymount's record looks, with the exception of a 92-51 loss at BYU (Cougars were in a huge revenge spot), they've been competitive more often than not in West Coast Conference play. They went to St. Mary's and lost by 13 and their other four WCC losses were by single digits. Note that they also managed to slip in a home win over a quality Santa Clara squad. And go back even further and we saw the Lions at home catching +10 against Ole Miss only to lose by three. Over the last six meetings in the series, the highest pointspread was Gonzaga -16.5...in Spokane. In their last three trips to Los Angeles, the Zags were laying -10.5 (won by 4), -9 (won by 10), and -11.5 (lost outright). Another key factor is the prep time. LMU head coach Max Good admitted that star Anthony Ireland has been worn down of late. The Lions had a full week of rest and prepare for the league's
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College Basketbal Betting Free Pick: Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal
01.30.2013 12:17 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Oregon
at
Stanford
-2 O/U 139
Recommendation: Over
Last time out, without starting point guard Dominic Artis, Oregon scored 81 points in an up-tempo, 76 possession game against Washington. I don't think we'll see those types of numbers tonight but it's clear that from a tempo standpoint, even without Artis, the Ducks are going to
continue to run
.
"We need to keep running," Altman said. "That suits us and helps us with our depth. If we're going to play nine or 10 guys, we've got to make sure we're pressing the other team."
Stanford has been up and down all season but we've seen the Cardinal push tempo with a willing partner. Games against USC, UCLA and Colorado featured an average of 70 possessions. The problem for Stanford has been an inconsistent offense. I expect them to pressure
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College Basketbal Betting Free Play: Oregon State Beavers at USC Trojans
01.19.2013 07:03 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Oregon State
+5.5 at
USC
Recommendation: Oregon State
Not sure that USC is ready to lay -5.5 in a conference game. The Trojans performed well and expended a lot of energy in Thursday's loss to Oregon. They played at a faster tempo and showed a variety of different defenses under interim head coach Bob Cantu. My issue is while practice may be more enjoyable to go to with Kevin O’Neill gone; this is still an average PAC-12 team void of a significant home court advantage or ability to pull away from teams of comparable ability. After beating UC Riverside 70-26, USC lost at home to UC Irvine, Cal, and Oregon. Their wins in LA were by two against Stanford and by two, in overtime, against Dayton. Oregon State is winless in PAC-12 play in part because they've played the best three teams in the league (Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA) and also because of suspensions. Tonight they’re expected to be at full strength with Eric Moreland (10.8 ppg, 11.1 rpg)
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NCAA Basketball Betting Free Play: South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Western Illinois Leathernecks
01.17.2013 08:51 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
South Dakota State
at
Western Illinois
-2.5
Recommendation: Western Illinois
You think Western Illinois has had tonight's game against South Dakota State circled? Last year, the Jackrabbits not only beat the Leathernecks three times but one of those games was by single point and the other was in overtime in the Summit League Championship game. WIU is an experienced team with a decent home court. You go back to last year and three of their conference losses in Macomb were by 1 (vs. SDSU), 1 (double OT) and 4 (double OT). This season, they are a perfect 8-0 at rinky-dink Western Hall and tonight marks arguably the biggest game the program has had under Jim Molinari. South Dakota State is a good team as seen by road wins at Montana and New Mexico. But there were also some bad losses, most notably at Hofstra and at South Dakota. Defensively is where these two teams differ. SDSU has had difficulty at times whereas WIU puts much more emphasis on
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College Basketball Betting: BYU's struggles against strong competition continue
01.17.2013 07:15 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Last night, BYU lost on a buzzer beater to St. Mary's, 70-69. It marked yet another failed attempt for the Cougars to pick up a marquee victory. Over the last two seasons, BYU has had an incredibly difficult time stepping up in class. Check out the results against St. Mary's and Gonzaga...
BYU -5 vs. St. Mary's - 70-69 Loss
BYU +2.5 vs. Gonzaga - 77-58 Loss
BYU +6.5 at Gonzaga - 74-63 Loss
BYU -3.5 vs. Gonzaga - 83-73 Win
BYU -2.5 vs. St. Mary's - 80-66 Loss
BYU +4 at St. Mary's - 98-82 Loss
That's 1-5 SU/ATS. And if we include better than average power conference teams, there are even more failures.
2012-13
BYU -2 vs. Florida State - 88-70 Loss
BYU +3 vs. Notre Dame - 78-68 Loss
BYU +4 at Iowa State - 83-62 Loss
BYU +7 at Baylor - 79-64 Loss
2011-12
BYU +5 vs. Marquette - 88-68 Loss
BYU -4 vs. Baylor - 86-83 Loss
BYU +7.5 vs. Wisconsin - 73-56 Loss
If we stretch the parameters a little, there were SU/ATS wins against Oregon (infant stages of Dana Altman's first season) and at Virginia Tech (Hokies finished 16-17). Still, BYU's track record against strong competition is
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College Basketbal Betting Free Play: NC State Wolfpack at Maryland Terrapins
01.16.2013 02:43 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
NC State
at
Maryland
-1.5 O/U 149
Recommendation: Over
Maryland has not been shy about its desire to play up-tempo with both home games in ACC play hitting the 70 possessions mark. And tonight, the Terps have talked about making a change at the
point guard
position, putting Nick Faust in place of the offensively inept Pe'Shon Howard.
The Terps are searching for a spark, and Faust may just oblige, allowing Maryland to work a little faster offensively. Since Faust doesn’t know all the set plays at point guard, teammate Logan Aronhalt said, the Terps might adjust with more quick-hitters, searching for easy, fast buckets.
NC State is in no way an elite level defense. In half of the Wolfpack's games, they've allowed 1.03 points per possession or more. Check out
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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon Ducks
01.13.2013 08:27 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Arizona State
at
Oregon
Recommendation: Arizona State +5.5 1st half
On most days, Oregon is without question 10 points or more better than Arizona State on its home floor. But, the Ducks are off a huge storm-the-court-win against undefeated Arizona and it shouldn't come as a shock if they come out sluggish against ASU tonight. That was the biggest win the Ducks have had under Dana Altman as the team moved to 13-2, 2-0 PAC-12. Arizona State comes in playing with house money. They beat Utah in overtime to open PAC-12 play, caught Colorado in a great spot, and benefited from a multiple suspensions to Oregon State. I'm not completely sold on the Sun Devils but they are improved from last season (see: PG Jahii Carson) and have the guard play and size to not be completely overwhelmed on the highway. I grabbed some ASU +5.5 first half and will play accordingly at halftime.
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College Basketbal Betting Free Pick: Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon State Beavers
01.10.2013 06:48 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Arizona State
at
Oregon State
-5
Recommendation: Oregon State
I'm not sold on Arizona's 13-2, 2-0 PAC-12 start. Are the Sun Devils better than last year? No question. But the schedule has been extremely favorable thus far and things get a bit tougher starting tonight in Corvallis. For starters ASU has played one true road game against a Texas Tech squad that just lost on its home floor to Baylor by 34. Next, the Sun Devils are 2-0 in league play but needed overtime to get past Utah and were gift-wrapped a win against Colorado after the Buffaloes were hosed out of one on the road against undefeated Arizona. Oregon State meanwhile below a six-point halftime lead and ended up losing to rival Oregon 79-66 at home. With Arizona on deck and then back-to-back road games in LA, all of a sudden this game has a lot of meaning. If Oregon State can keep ASU's Jahii Carson in check – I expect they’ll throw multiple defensive looks his way – I think
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