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College Basketball Handicapping: With Noel out for UK, Tennessee's Stokes could thrive

02.15.2013     08:11 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Something to consider when Kentucky travels to Tennessee on Saturday. Obviously the Wildcats will be without the services of Nerlens Noel. In the first meeting, Noel played 38 minutes, scored 12 points, grabbed nine boards and blocked six shots as the Cats pulled out a 75-65 win in Lexington. Also noteworthy in that game was the performance of UT's Jarnell Stokes who played only 15 minutes and fouled out. The Vols have won four of their last six games in large part because Stokes has significantly stepped up his game. In those six games he averaged 17.5 ppg, 11.7 rpg and 2 bpg – and more importantly stayed out of foul trouble. Kentucky expects to replace Noah with 7-foot freshman Willie Cauley-Stein who has actually played fairly well of late with three straight double-digit efforts.



Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Tennessee Volunteers




College Basketball Betting Trends: PAC-12 home courts have been money burners

02.14.2013     02:32 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
On today's Podcast I discussed the lack of strong home courts in the PAC-12 this season. From a straight up perspective, home teams are only 40-29, 58% SU in league play which is 23rd out of 33 conferences according to Ken Pom. Where they really falter though is against the spread at 29-39-1 ATS. Arizona and Oregon are the main culprits (both 1-5 ATS) but not one team is more than a game over .500 ATS in league play. Stanford, California, and Colorado are your PAC-12 home teams this evening.

PAC-12 SU/ATS Home Records in League Play
Arizona: 4-2 SU, 1-5 ATS
Arizona State: 5-2 SU, 3-3 ATS
California: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
Colorado: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
Oregon: 5-1 SU, 1-5 ATS
Oregon State: 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS
Stanford: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS
UCLA: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS
USC: 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS
Utah: 2-4 SU, 4-3 ATS
Washington: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS
Washington State: 1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS
Overall: 40-29 SU
Against the Spread: 29-39-1 ATS


 



Tags: College Basketball PAC-12 Andrew Lange




College Basketball Update: Missing from the Math in Kenpom's Foul or Defend Study

02.14.2013     06:52 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Those of you who are statheads may have already spent the day discussing Ken Pomeroy’s college basketball tabulations on what happens when a defense does or doesn’t foul when leading by three late in the game. I think a fairly important factor has been left out of the discussions I’ve read and heard (maybe it’s come up often in ones I haven’t).

First, the nuts and bolts. Pomeroy wanted to compare late game success rates from recent years that would shed light on the “foul or defend” debate. Some people are always screaming at coaches to foul when up three in the final seconds. Most coaches are ignoring this and continuing to defend, figuring the worst that can happen is that the other team hits a trey and the game goes to overtime.

Kenpom’s Parameters

In games from 2009-10 to Read more


Tags: College Basketball Stat Intelligence




College Basketball Gambling: Louisville looks to bounce back vs. St. John's

02.14.2013     06:38 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
St. Johns at Louisville -17 O/U 132.5

Last night, Notre Dame had a difficult time disposing of Big East bottom feeder DePaul, eventually winning in overtime, 82-78. Heading into that game there were obvious questions about whether or not the Irish would have enough in the tank physically and emotionally after the five overtime affair against Louisville. Tonight it is the Cardinals' turn as they play host to St. John's.


“In three of our five losses, we have beat ourselves, and for a veteran team that’s very disturbing,” Pitino said on Wednesday. “I think we’re playing with great heart, with very little head. You’ve got to play smart as well as playing hard to be a successful team, and they know that.”

“Russ has got to learn Read more



Tags: College Basketball Louisville Cardinals St. John's Red Storm




College Basketball Handicapping: Can Northeastern sustain its success?

02.13.2013     03:10 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
After limping into conference play having lost six of seven, Northeastern has put together one of the surprise seasons in the Colonial Conference. The Huskies just got finished winning three straight barn burners on the road to move to 12-1 – three games ahead of tonight's opponent Delaware. I tried to step in front of Northeastern in its last game at William & Mary – one of the better situational plays I've come across over the last few weeks. Things were going according to plan as W&M (+2.5) was up seven points with five minutes to go. But Northeastern rallied back, tied the game, took the lead, and won by four points, holding the home team to a single bucket the final five minutes of game. It was a frustrating loss and yet another "clutch" performance by Northeastern.

According to Ken Pomeroy, there are seven teams in the Colonial that are ranked anywhere from 133rd to 195th. Meaning, in theory, there isn't much difference between Drexel at 6-6 and Northeastern at 12-1. Case in point, in the two meetings this year, the Huskies won in overtime on the road and by seven at home over the Dragons. It was two of a litany of competitive games Read more


Tags: College Basketball Northeastern Huskies Delaware Blue Hens Andrew Lange




College Basketball Handicapping: Miami's Jim Larranaga uses stats, covers numbers

02.13.2013     11:32 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Interesting article on Miami head coach Jim Larranaga and is fondness of Ken Pomeroy's statistics. Note that dating back to his last year at George Mason, Larranaga's teams are an amazing 53-26 against the spread.


"Honestly, I never think about it," Larranaga answered. "The only rankings that are important to me are the rankings of the KenPom.com stats in all of the categories that determine success or failure."

"The first thing I needed them to know is where they needed to improve, and those numbers showed them because they are totally objective numbers," Larranaga said. "You can't argue with them. They show you what you need to work on. And, as a coach, if you don't know what you need to work on, then you're just practicing ... stuff. Yes, I want to practice what we're good at. But what I really want to practice is what we have to improve on to be really good, and I want my players to understand why we're doing it."

Read more


Tags: College Basketball Miami Hurricanes




College Basketball Gambling: Duke a double-digit favorite over North Carolina

02.13.2013     07:06 AM     Printer Friendly
North Carolina at Duke -10.5 O/U 152

Duke and North Carolina hook up for the first time this season in Durham. It's been a balanced series of late with the Blue Devils holding a slight edge both SU (6-5) and ATS (6-5). Home court hasn't meant much with the road side winning six of 10 outright (one game was on a neutral floor in the ACC Tournament). Seven of the last 11 meetings have gone UNDER the total.

Duke-North Carolina Betting History 2008-12
Year
Venue
Score
SU
ATS
Total
2012
Durham
UNC 88, DUKE 70
UNC
UNC -2
Over 155
2012
Chapel Hill
DUKE 84, UNC 84
Duke
Duke +6
Over 155
2011
Neutral
DUKE 75, UNC 58
Duke
Duke -4.5
Under 147
2011
Chapel Hill
UNC 81, DUKE 67
UNC
UNC -1.5
Under 150.5
2011
Durham
DUKE 79, UNC 73
Duke
UNC +10.5
Under 156.5
2010
Durham
DUKE 82, UNC 50
Duke
Duke -15
Under 145.5
2010
Chapel Hill
DUKE 64, UNC 54
Duke
Duke -5.5
Under 155.5
2009
Chapel Hill
UNC 79, DUKE 71
UNC
Duke +8.5
Under 165.5
2009
Durham
UNC 101, DUKE 87
UNC
UNC -2
Over 154.5
2008
Durham
UNC 76, DUKE 68
UNC
UNC +1.5
Under 169.5
2008
Chapel Hill
DUKE 89, UNC 78
Duke
Duke +4.5
Over 164





Tags: College Basketball Duke Blue Devils North Carolina Tar Heels




College Basketball Handicapping: Can Notre Dame get up for DePaul?

02.13.2013     06:00 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Depaul at Notre Dame -11.5

Bus trips, fatigue, hangovers, letdowns...they are all tricky aspects of a lot of handicaps this time of year. For every one that plays out as expected – Team A off a big win over rival but falls flat next time out as road chalk – there is another that doesn't – Team B off three road games in five nights, the last of which in two overtimes, rolls to an easy win and cover. For tonight, a lot of folks are going to question whether or not Notre Dame can bounce back from Saturday's five overtime circus win over Louisville. DePaul isn't a very good team (1-9 vs. Big East) but the Blue Demons have at times been competitive (three Big East losses by 1/OT). The Irish meanwhile don't have a big track record of winning by margin against conference foes. Way back on January Read more


Tags: College Basketball Notre Dame Fighting Irish DePaul Blue Demons




College Basketball Gambling Free Play: Indiana State Sycamores at Missouri State Bears

02.12.2013     11:07 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Indiana State -4.5 at Missouri State
Recommendation: Indiana State


When these two teams met in Terre Haute last month, Indiana State’s defense positively stifled Missouri State’s limited offense after halftime, outscoring the Bears by a dozen in the second half of a comfortable eight point win.  There’s no reason to expect anything significantly different tonight. 

The Bears can’t find the bottom of the basket.  They shot just 16-51 from the floor in a 29 point loss at Wichita State over the weekend  after being held to 37 points at Northern Iowa in their previous game, another double digit defeat thanks to their 15-55 shooting effort. 

Don’t expect home cookin’ to change Missouri State’s offensive acumen in any dramatic way – they’ve shot under 40% at home for the entire season.  Leading scorer and assist man Anthony Downing hits less than 40% of Read more


Tags: College Basketball Indiana State Sycamores Missouri State Bears Teddy Covers




College Basketball Gambling: Long trips and a short turnaround for Valpo

02.12.2013     07:56 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Valparaiso at Wright State pk

Big matchup in the Horizon League tonight as Valparaiso (9-2) heads to Wright State (8-4). Valpo didn't get home from its trip to Cleveland State until late Saturday night and left via bus for Dayton on Monday morning.


“We got guys with some injuries that were on the bus for 10 hours two days ago and then almost four and a half hours today,” Drew said. “That’s almost 15 hours. I think travel catches up with you at some point. When that point is, you never know."






Tags: College Basketball Valparaiso Crusaders Wright State Raiders



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